Check out the follow up video where I put these ideas to the test using data collected from a bunch of people's rolls. I'll admit the results were not what I expected... ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-CbVBgEr0pM0.html
I just did 3 muilt rolls and got 7 Jing Ke and 6 Hassan of the Serenity? Do you I will adventy run out of those cards and start getting different ones? Or is there a unlimited number of them?
I'll admit it: I'm not too much of a math wizard myself. But! I do think you deserve props for discussing this topic at all--and in a unique way by providing your interesting calculations.
I know it's a little depressing, but that 1% chance does work out sometimes. I think the best bet is to save quartz for the really good banners and try to maximize your chance that the 1% ends up being one of the SSR Servants you really want. And if you're willing to spend just a little bit of money once a year, you can roll on the guaranteed 5 star banner we'll probably be getting for Thanksgiving again.
Marchera XIII I am not gonna be saving for anyone long term, too many people got burned with Jalter and Tamamo so it's best if I just play by the seat of my pants. :P
@@VeritasNumquamPerit Ye. I also learn how to Increase my mental strength by Farming 100+ times in a row a few days ago by Doing Summer 4 Las Vegas event Stages…. Ugh
My recommendation is to stick with single roll, not because of math (this is gacha afterall) but the mentality that goes along with it... a 3x single roll = 9quartz...and 3xmulti roll = 90quartz, now imagine the worst case scenario where all you get is 4* CE from multi roll, that will be equivalent to three 3* from single roll No matter how much quartz you have, multi roll can make you easily spend them in just few clicks.. But in Single roll, you feel the pain, every roll seems giving you hint how shitty your luck is, and you can stop prematurely. Calm down, and maybe roll it tomorrow,... Changing the way i roll help me conserve my quartz and not fall into the gacha hell...if your luck is shit, multi doesnt help, i believe our luck fluctuate and always come unexpected..so dont play gacha like you were in casino with that "All In" mentality...throw a couple of quartz, set a limit, and move along when you didnt get it, sure you can do it using multi roll, but it doesnt work bcoz it all gone so fast, and you just go, ahhh fk it!!! spend it all.
@@MustProtectUwU42069 Its the same thing on paper, its the same exact rate, i'm talking about the mental pressure you put on doing multi roll vs single roll. Ever since i change to my technique of doing FP roll -> swap to yolo, i get a lot of unnecessary break (ex: clearing storage, lvl up CE, selling silver card for mana prism) All this extra task make me roll much longer that i should...i could clear 1000quartz in cless than 30mins when i do multi... Try that when you doing FP > Single pull...it gonna take hours, and that help you mentally to cope with the situation.
During test.... (Math why!?!? Why is it so hard to solve your problem) Using Math for game statistics.... (10^4...etc,...etc,....etc. And that's the probability of it happening)
wanna hear something salty? . . I try to pull okita souji and wasted 90 quartz and I never even got okita souji or any decent four stars. then here is my friend who has 11 quartz making a joke to me saying he could pull okita. THEN HE REALLY PULLED IT WITH JUST 3 QUARTZ!!! YES JUST 3 QUARTZZZ!! then he uses his remaining quartz on shinjuku banner. guess what? HE JUST PULLED AVENGER OF SHINJUKU IN SINGLE ROLL!! then here's me w/o any SSR wasted 90 quartz getting nothing while he used only 6 quartz to get both avenger of shinjuku and okita. . . I can feel him putting salt on my wound.
I'm ngl I'm kinda like that friend. My friend was jokingly teasing me and I was like ALRIGHT FUCK IT. I'm gonna use my bullshit luck to get enkidu. The next day I was using a summon ticket on his banner, I got ozymandias, instead. He still flipped.
Guys no one thinks that ur chances of rolling a 5 star goes up with multis. This is the 1 and only reason why I single roll. singles let u use quarts in intervals of 3. you can stop rolling once u get ur 5 star servant. with multis its intervals of 30. ur probably not gonna get ur 5 star servant on your last pull in a 10 summons. idk to me every quart counts so even saving 12 quarts is enough for me to roll singles
That's a great point that I didn't really mention. If the only thing you care about is getting a particular 5 star Servant and minimizing the amount of quartz it costs, single rolling is likely the efficient solution. In theory you'll get slightly worse CEs but that's probably worth it considering the amount of quartz you might end up saving, which can be anywhere between 0 and 27.
plus the odds of pulling a gold card is already 20% (2/10 cards) Although it is possible that you wont get a gold card in 10 singles, ur probably gioing to.
I only do multi rolls just to speed up time , sometimes my luck is just a gift from God , and some times it isnt , like my 3 first 5 stars where the 3 Altrias , each one in my first attempt at the spawn , Lancer , later got Archer twice in a row in multi rolls and last Saber in NeroFest when i was going for Nero Bride
All I know is that just about every 5 star Servant I've ever gotten has come from a ticket or a single pull, while 10-rolls are Unlimited Black Keys Works
@@amai2307 man you really replied to my comment from 4 years ago? Honestly these days with the pity system in place I just do 10x rolls if it’s a character I want because I know I’ll eventually get it.
"I'd rather betray the multi-roll than letting the multi-roll betray me" The complication with multi-roll is that the probability you need to calculate is conditional probability. Conditional probability happens when the events, which are the 10 rolls in every multi-roll, are not independent. There is guaranteed to be a 3 star servant and a 4 star card in a multi-roll and the presence of these certain events affects the probabilities of the rest 8 or 9 draws. So the listed probabilities cannot be used for reference in this case. There is a conditional probability formula to use, but we lack information on how exactly the drawing process is coded(can't get P(A and B) ). On the other hand, there is no reason for single rolls to be affected by other single rolls. I have pulled 20 ssrs and at least 10 of them come from single rolls, 1 from lucky bag (CN server). Some of them even showed up when they are not rated up. My average rate is 2 to 3 SRs and 1 SSR for about every 140 quartzs.
I'll admit this did almost put me to sleep. But in that sense it was very much like any stats class I've attended XD. Nicely done in laying out the numbers. As expected it doesn't make any real difference. Though I don't mind doing the multi-rolls. On the rare chance (or honestly just the one time) I got really lucky with a multi, it does add to the shock value to just see all those pulls lined up together. But I agree with the idea that if you want a servant badly and you've still got 3...then use them. Your odds won't be any worse. Pull when you want to pull. The odds are low regardless so might as well take your shot.
Well for now they won't. I'm saving for the Round Table Knights Banner. Pulling randomly on banners, after 200+ free quartz wasted, taught me that I should hoard for some higher chances of getting good gold servants. That one is objectively the best free banner I ever saw lol...very few gold (I think less than 10) FIXED (you can't get spooked) and most of them are very good, and the other couple of them is still good. I'll mainly roll for the Alters and Saber Lancelot. But yeah, Mordred, OG Saber and Lancer Artoria are very welcome to surprise me xD. The others won't make me much happy but also not unsatisfied. My quartz are ready. If I did the math correctly, I should have around 500 plus a good amount of tickets at that point.
Yeah, knocking most of the other SR and SSR Servants out of the pool is super helpful. Good luck! If you save that long it should turn out to be a pretty amazing roll. I'm really torn on that one though, because shortly after that we will finally see Merlin.
EVERY SINGLE 5 STAR I HAVE PULLED CAME FROM A TICKET. EVERY.SINGLE.ONE. I have done multiple multi pulls and never pulled a 5 star servant ever. It’s a LIE.
Phillip Vang I got a Kaleidoscope on a single pull. I've tried at least 4 multi roll and only got Chevalier d'eon and bunch of CEs and 3 star servants. Still salty about my E-rank luck.
I've done 10 single pulls on multiple occasions. And i usually get 10 times 3* garbage, so I'd rather take the multi and get at least one 4* ce or servant.
*When you finish watching this video, decide to do a 1 Pull using your last Summon Ticket (that you don't remember how you got), and get a 4 Star Servant*
Mordred kicks my Butt in camelot, was thanksgiving, i need something to make me Fell better, so i decide to roll with ONLY 9 QUANTZ, in the First one a 3 STAR CE, i was not hoping to get anything in the First place, i Just find the sensantion to the gacha similar like a slot machine, got scathach in my 2 try, happy day of my Live.
I got only 3 star servants when i try multi. But when i try single pulls... i got Nero and Altria Lancer from it So... single is better than multi i guess???
Was scrolling through and read tons of comments saying they all got their 5 stars through singles; I had gotten Mordred through a random ticket myself, and I went "eh, might as well give it a try." I got Scathach on my second roll.
Nice vid. On this new event, I did a one and only 10x summon and I got the 5 star exclusive, 4 star emiya (archer), and a 4 star craft essence lol, guess I had good luck
I got Swimsuit Martha in my first pull of the summer event, then i got Orion and Mordred in the Story gacha. After that i never had luck again, i only get CEs and i hate it
I got Nero Claudius AND Nero Claudius (Bride) in a single 10 roll. What are the odds of that happening. 🤯 Not gonna lie, nearly dropped my phone from shock and excitement.
While watching this I decided I was just going to do single rolls with my 10 sq, and got tamamo-no-me during the 2020 new year banner. You are my new dad.
I think this video is still very much relevant. I started this game just recently, right at the end of 2020's Berserk Jeanne Summer event (I missed her). But I started to play with the sole intention of getting Iskandar. Was disheartened to find he was a limited servant, but figured I'd have time to save if that was the case. My timing for starting this game was both fortunate and unfortunate, because he showed up as a revival event WAY too soon. I spent all the free quartz I had and summon tickets to get him. Everything failed, even with the 10 pulls. I thought I wasn't going to get him... on my VERY LAST summon ticket I could possibly get during the event... Iskandar came to me. So yeah, I think this video is very relevant, and makes me question the value of actual 10 pulls outside of pure convenience, though personally I believe the rates are all a scam anyway and completely untrue.
I just started the game about 5 days ago, and did 10 single rolls on the Halloween 2020 summon, on my last roll I got Sitonai, my first 5 star. Then a day later, I did one single roll, and got Sitonai again!
Spent 150 quartz for Sessyion Kiara banner and got only 3x4☆ servant and 5x4☆ CE. Then before sleeping I spent my 3 TIX and I got fucking 2x Sessyion Kiara. I feel so good yet so bad.
Haha, yes you got me there. I am basing this off my anecdotal observations. I wish there was a large data set to analyze though, we could do some interesting things.
Casino: 49.9% chance of winning Me: What a scam, those are awful odds FGO: 0.4% chance in getting your waifu Me: So you're telling me it's not 0%? *Opens wallet*
Its useful to note a "disadvantage to multi" that being that if you are targetting a single card, say Jalter, for the sake of the example, but only expect/want to get a single and no more than that, or another example, is that you only need the 5th copy of something to max it out, doing a multi ensures you spend all 30 SQ and more often than not, the drop that you expect does not happen on the very last card, on average you get in on the middle, meaning that instead of rolling say 5 summons and stopping there, you are already in for another 5 summons even if you dont need anything else, do I make myself clear?
Yes, that's a great point. If you are aiming for a single copy of a specific card you'll probably be able to stop sooner if you pull one at a time. You would theoretically save an average of 13.5 quartz per banner you roll on (averaging between 0 and 27 quartz saved).
Another good point. You have a 1% chance of pulling your first SSR on the first card. A 0.99% chance of pulling your first SSR on the second card. 0.9801% chance on the third card, and so on until 0.9135% on the 10th card (.99^9*.01). That means the average savings will actually be a BIT higher, because you have a SLIGHTLY better chance of pulling it earlier than later. If you assume that we definitely get it somewhere in the 10 summons (eg if you keep pulling singles forever until you get the SSR) then the revised percentages become 10.46%, 10.35%, 10.25%... 9.55%. This means you'll save 27 quartz 10.46% of the time, 24 quartz 10.35% of the time... and in the end you actually save an average of 13.75 quartz, slightly more than the initial estimate :)
Charles L the only real effect the guaranteed cards happens when you roll 8 3* CE on a row and the very last 2 cards doesn't have the 3* CE cards on the summoning pool, which rarely happens (see the video)
You most likely save SQ on average by doing singles(if, and only if, what you expect to get is something very particular, if you're targeting something), pulling 10 3* CEs on a row is extremely unlikely, you would have to be crazy unlucky to roll those and "not save" by doing singles, trying to save SQ it's a bit of a gamble by itself, but one in wich the odds are (somewhat) on your favor
For that 0.2^9 probability of getting 9 non 4 star ce’s, is that from counting sequences or sets? If its with sequences, then is that probability correct, cause wouldn’t that mean thats only if the last one is the 4 star servant, so wouldn’t you also need to count the possible outcome of a 4 star servant and then non 4 star craft essences, and etcz? Or are you using sets here?
I am years late but as an F2P I roll the moment I get 30 quartz regardless of banner because. Because I am stupidly confident with my luck, but so far all I got is Atalante after 3 ten pulls
I did both in 2 accounts, my main and alt and the results ... my summoning luck just sucks. It's not just E luck, it's a freaking Z 😂 The most I get in single pulls are usually CE's I don't need (yes Spicy Mapo Tofu, I mean you and the Elixer of Love) and for Servants, bruh I don't need almost all of the lancers I got, I already got Cú! Almost all the servants I get is the lancer class and I'm severely lacking the Assassin class. Multi-roll usually works for me since I can at least guarantee I can get 1 servant from all those CE's The best one I got was a multi-roll for the Oni event and thank god of waifu/husbando that I got Raikou-mama. For the other summoning banners, still no luck... I don't even consider Da Vinci I pulled via Summoning Ticket a win cuz I was aiming for other 5* casters. I admit that I 'popped the f2p cherry' for the 5* guaranteed summon during the 1st event on my main account. I got Karna... another flipping Lancer. Not gonna replace my doggo, game!
Unfortunately we have not found a way to increase the 1%, unless you count the guaranteed SSR Servants from those occasional one time banners that require paid quartz.
I'm not a statistical guy but I have noticed that multi summoning with 30 Saint quartz has a significantly less chance of having a five-star servant. whereas single summoning seems to have better results but maybe that's just me I don't know what do you think? And no offense but that Math almost made my brain vomit oh man just trying to process that almost made my brain explode I'm not very good at math lol
Single is better TBH. I got Iskandar by pulling single pull on the last day of fate zero event. Perhaps I should pull Shuten on the last day I guess? ฅ'ω'ฅ
I am waiting paid event to roll 5 star card I lost my hope on 5 star I rolled 10 rolls gacha on gilgamesh banner and they gave me 10 ces %0.3 chance how lucky I am
I've recently started doing only single rolls. I've gotten Gilgamesh, Edmond and Waver from single rolls so I think that's where my luck lies though I don't always get that lucky. Multi rolls rarely bring me what I want though there was that rare time when I've gotten Brynhildr and Francis Drake with multis. I've also gotten quite a few rare craft essences from single rolls.
So far I’ve gotten 2 5* as well as 2 4* from singles. When I rolled for Ozymandias I did 7 multi rolls and got neither of the feature 4* servants, nor Ozy himself. All I got was the featured 3*s to NP5 and a lot of shit CEs. The only 5* servant I’ve ever gotten from a multi roll was Gilgamesh.
Lets say I only care about getting one paticular servant from a banner. I plan to role next for Raikou and only have about 60 quartz, but really want her and I care about nothing else. Would it be better to do 10 shot rolls and or just do singles until I get her?
I'll start out with my recommendation: If you care about getting her and nothing else (not even saving quartz) then I recommend multi-rolls. If you care about possibly saving some left over quartz, single rolls are better. More details below... If you pull 20 singles you have about an 18.2% chance of getting at least one 5 star Servant ((1-.99^20)*100). That's for any 5 star Servant though. Since Raikou will be on Rate Up, we know her chances will be better than any other SSR Servant, but not as good as all of them together. Right now Shuten is on Rate Up and her chances are 0.7% (compared to the other SSRs at 0.023%). Assuming Raikou is given the same Rate Up, you have about a 13.1% chance of getting her from single pulls ((1-.993^20)*100). The advantage to doing it this way is that you can stop rolling as soon as you get her, and save the rest of your quartz. The bad news is that you only have a 13.1% chance of getting her, so the odds of actually saving quartz are low (.7% chance of saving 57 quartz, 6.8% chance of saving at least 10 quartz, 12.5% chance of saving at least 3 quartz). According to this video, your chances of getting her are the same, even if you do multi-roll instead of single pulling. The pro: you have higher chances of getting more 4 star cards (mostly CEs) this way. The con: you lose the ability to stop rolling as soon as you get her. I also want to mention that since publishing this I have been collecting more data and I might have found evidence that the rate for SSR Servants is actually boosted a TINY bit in multi-rolls. If this is true, you might have an 18.7% chance of getting at least 1 SSR Servant from multi-rolls and an 18.2% chance from single pulls.
I just want to complain about my atrocious luck. I mean only 4stars is Stheno and I got nothing in 3 multi pulls on Kintoki banner. But it's also the same on singles : 11 tickets on Iskandar Banner and nothing either :)
I've been pretty much conditioned by the game to avoid Ten-Rolls at all costs. I never got ANYTHING from Ten-Rolls whenever I saved for it. Meanwhile with Single Rolls, I got more 4*s than I know what to do with. I even got my Very First 5* Servant, and it was Iskandar, the Servant I even picked up the game in the first place for! It's like, Why would I _EVER_ do Multi Rolls when I literally just got my Dream Servant from Singles?!
Robbie Norris Thank you for finalising my decision to never Multi Roll (unless guaranteed 5*) ever again. I’m in the same boat as you, all my good shit is from Single pulls.
Same Hahahahahahha. I tried the multi-roll several times. Still no Iskandar. I just gave up and tried using single rolls whenever I had 3 quartz. After 2-3 tries I got him :) My first and only 5 star servant for now.
It depends a little bit on what you are trying to get. If you do two multi-rolls you might get more 4 star CEs and/or 3 star Servants that you would from single pulls. So if you're going to spend all of the quartz no matter what, that's the best way to go. If you're hoping to get one copy of a 5 star Servant and then quit, single rolling MIGHT save you a little quartz. You would be able to stop right away after you get it, instead of finishing all 10 rolls. With 20 single pulls you only have an 18.2% chance of getting a 5 star Servant though. This means you have more than an 81.8% chance of using all 60 quartz anyway.
Well this is an aberration but during the Jalter event, I did 5 10-rolls and 28 tickets, got 2 jalters from 10-rolls, 2 jalters from tickets. Another time I did 4 ticket pulls and got 2 Jacks. So, I'm more inclined towards single-rolls.
Wtf serious!? That's insane! You lucky son of a gun haha. I have yet to pull a single 5☆. Not complaining though I have a few 4☆ servants and just recently pulled Nitocris so that made me happy. But wow I can't believe you got FOUR jalters on such a small amount of pulls. I bet there are tons of whales out there who spent close to $1000 just for one and they'd hate you if they knew how you got yours 😂
I'm seeing a whole lot of singles luck in the comments but I'm sure my BB Summer and Jeanne were on multis, I usually save for multis anyway, I rolled today on the Benin-Ema or w/e New Year Banner simply for the 5*CE and ended up with Waver as a spook lol AND the 5*CE, yolo multi roll for the win
Same. I had just explained a family member how low my chances were before rolling and she immediately appeared. Maybe because that family member's name is Jeanne? Maybe that was a catalyst? Now I need to find someone named Tamamo.
same happen to me, first 10 roll i got jalter one 3* servant and the rest are all 3* CE few days later doing another 10 roll one 3* servant and all another 9 cards are CE with one 4* CE guess what, this happen when i change my ign to "JalterLover" during her event
Im a f2p player i got tamamo and nightingale from summon tickets got lucky did a ten roll rate up for vlad and jeanne and im telling you there is no trick or some shit its luck i got 3 ssr 8 sr and a bunch of 3 stars its luck no more no less and i only started playing 4 months ago
