Toward the end of 2022 and for the first half of this year, many economists and market analysts were warning investors of a recession starting within the first 6 months of 2023. Despite those widespread warnings, the S&P 500 Index is up 16% YTD as of July 3, 2023, notching one of the strongest 6-month starts to a year in history. Are the bears wrong or just early?
The primary reason is that the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market are telling us two different stories. The U.S. stock market seems to be telling the story that the worst is behind us, inflation is coming down, and we are at the beginning of a renewed economic growth cycle fueled by the new A.I. technology. But the U.S. economy is telling a very different story. The economic data suggests that the economy is slowing down quickly, higher interest rates are taking their toll on bank lending, the consumer, commercial real estate, and many of the economic indicators that have successfully forecasted a recession in the past are not only flashing red but have become progressively more negative over the past 6 months despite the rally in the stock market.
So are the economists that predicted a recession this year wrong or just early?
Contact Michael Ruger with Questions: 518-477-6686 or mruger@greenbushfinancial.com
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6 авг 2024
