Emphasis on when. Since hes horrible with dates. The fact that he says he would be surprised if we didnt land on mars in 5 years, is Elon time. In normal time that will probably translate he will be surprised of humans dont land on mars in 15-20 years. Also, as long as humans are alive, its a matter of when. NASA building a moon colony is way more important than a mars colony. Since you kinda have to learn how to build a colony in the first place, and preferably close to home.