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It's not really the same because there's no world record attached, but I've reset when looking for a Shiny Pokemon due to muscle memory. I was very annoyed. I hope he pulls it off again!
Well its kinda fascinating. If he would have pulled it of it would be great and celebrated. But by actually not making it he has become more famous than what he would be if successfull ^^
@@bragtime1052 oof same article has a story of a woman who had a gun for self defense and even went to the range consistently to practice with it but when it came time to use it when she was attacked and raped she just didn't think to grab it out of her purse and use it. It was sitting right next to her the entire time.
No Billy Mitchell has all the Mario kart speed runs. Because Walter Day says so. All other records were performed on machines not sanctioned by twin galaxies 😛
I experienced this years ago as a musician. Whenever I would practice a really challenging part on my instrument, I used to start over every time I made a mistake. This would allow me to run through it more, but it made my brain “pause” every time I made a mistake. Inevitably, when performing live, my brain would sometimes totally shut down if I made any mistake, which was bad! I decided that from then on, I would always finish the part I was practicing, even if I totally fumbled it; because you have to teach yourself to keep going.
@Shaman Xeed you reaaallyy just had to say that on a *mario* video? also, what's wrong with being a casual gamer? I'll tell ya what, nothing. so fuck off with your bad takes.
Dream fans are so stupid 1 in 7.5 trillion equals the chance of someone selecting a specific second from the last 25 million years. And then I said this and a dream Stan said well it’s still possible
It's kinda funny how muscle memory ends up leading to mistakes like this considering that is a major element to how speedrunners are able to get such amazing times. Take the bad with the good I guess lol
Muscle memory can also get you stuck in a rut if you're used to using a slower or less efficient strat that gets beaten out by a newer strat. I'm not a speedrunner but I am a schmup player and sometimes I catch myself getting into position for an inferior scoring strat that I used to use when I've found and practiced a better strat that I should be using. When new strats are discovered, sometimes you're going to have to do some mental rewiring to kick the old strat out of your mind
@@asswhole4195 But there's also a chance that someone watching this videos is an amazing human being. So I think it's worth it to call a lot of undeserving people "absolute legends" so that one person gets to be called what they actually are.
Yep, I have heard stories of people who have learned self-defense taking a weapon from their attacker and then giving it back cause that's what they did in training.
@@chucklebutt4470 I don't have anything but anecdotes to go on, but a quick Google revealed this example: www.usadojo.com/the-danger-of-repetition-in-martial-arts-training/ It is known that in high pressure situations, you revert fully to your training and are not really capable of thinking critically about your actions. So if you have disarmed someone hundreds or thousands of times in training and then handed them the weapon to go again, there is a reasonable probability that you will do the same thing in a real life situation before you have had time to process it.
As someone who has personally experienced that pausing muscle memory nightmare, I can confirm that it is the worst feeling. You've pulled off an insanely unlikely thing, only to have the run destroyed by something as stupid as pausing. Even at that point, your muscle memory is still going sometimes, and you even hit retry before you even have the chance to react.
I KNOW RIGHT. That happens to me too, when I try to grind something and after so long, I actually do it, I just immediately think that I didn’t do it and fall.
I love that he was literally talking about the low probability right as he was going to do the trick. His dejected discourse shows he wasn't ready to take advantage even if he got it to work lol
@@natekunnen7021 yeah he didn't seem dejected, he was just talking about the extremely low odds of getting the skip on all 3 laps without messing anything up
Honestly, every time Karl calls me an absolute legend, it makes me a little happier. And I know I'm not the only one, so thanks for brightening up our days, you absolute legend.
My friend did something like this when were younger. We were opening fifa ultimate team packs back in 2014 and he was just quick selling all these packs because we were getting nothing good and then out of nowhere he gets the rarest and most expensive card you could get at the time: **Lionel Messi**. Unfortunately muscle memory kicked in and he accidentally pressed quick sell thus losing out on millions of fifa coins or having the best player possible on your team if he chose to keep it
This is exactly like the goblin tinkerer in terraria, you keep clicking the reforge button but spot the modifier you want after you've already replaced it
Man, I'm glad I started programming. Trying to imagine where I'd possibly be in my life if I hadn't chose to do so; "what have you accomplished with your life" me: "Well, you see. I'm a professional world record holder at running lvl 6 in Oregon trail."
"This type of strategy involves literally banging your head into a wall hundreds of times in hopes of something magical happening" Sounds like running a small youtube channel lmao
My prediction before opening this video, based off the thumbnail, was: “Matthias choking on going for 32/32 in nonshortcut WRs Though the thumb is different!
It happened to me, specially if the shiny you're hunting for is very similar to the regular colors, if you aren't paying attention when it spawns, it's practically impossible to tell if it's a shiny or not o~o but at least in this case you can try catching the pokemon instead of leaving, but people has left battles with only the chat knowing it was a shiny
8,000 is less than 90,000, and you need skill for this one. the worst in pkmn would be encountering a shiny pokemon in the first route before you have pokeballs
You don't have to learn all the insane frame perfect strats to speedrun a game, it's not so frustrating if you just do them for fun and don't worry about the leaderboards.
Another great video as always, Karl! One thing I noticed right away was that the TAS + the user's successful attempt happened when the kart was facing a diagonal (diagonal left in this case), compared to all the fails where they were "head on." I am wondering if there is some interesting clipping where part of the kart renders on the other side, thus allowing the rest to render on the other side during the next frame. I am curious if being on the diagonal will help in this instance, and if so, I wonder if using the diagonal will help in other instances that might allow the kart to render partially on the other side to accomplish something, i.e., partial render into a section similar to one of the first clips you showed where the user was speeding into the mountain wall and gaining laps. Speedrunning is such an amazing community when we find all these awesome bugs and glitches and such! All the best to you and your family
Thats how it feels to be a musician, practicing part of a song that messes with your timing. The one time you do play it correctly, you’re going to mess up the easy part that comes right after, because you weren’t ready.
It's kind of like how in Ocarina of Time people will sometimes instantly drop a HESS after getting it because they rolled on the very first frame and assumed it was too early. I've done this one and seen other runners do it hundreds of times through the years.
Noob question; how on earth are the odds for these skips actually calculated? How did the speedrunning community even begin to figure out that you can only achieve the fence skip approximately 1 in 90,000 times?
I can only imagine the amount of time it took the TAS to be completed with that skip. It looks easy, but tool assisted speedruns can take weeks, if not months, to create.
It's 1 in 90,000 within the normal parameters of play by a top level player. I guess a lot of that is subjective and the number is more conceptual than accurate. First you'd figure out the margin of error, what is the tollerence for the skip. Which isn't hard with tools where you can align your self perfectly, put your self in any position and at any angle. Then you can figure out what the normal parameters of play by a top level player are to come within or close to this tollerance. Map it to a graph and select an average that kind of just 'feels right'. Although I'm sure people who're much better at maths and statistics, who actually know what they're talking about, will know the techniques to properly map this data. A round number like 90,000 isn't going to be at all accurate. And better players (or players who're accurate more often) will have better odds.
I did some quick search. Not much info but I think I found the answer. In short, when something moves in a video game, it actually "teleports" at the rate of X pixels per frame. In order to make this trick work, the kart has to be above a certain speed, and hits the fence at a specific pixel. At that pixel, the game thinks the kart hit the fence from the other side, therefore the game pushes the kart to that side. So the 1/90,000 is not completely correct because that is the odds if you randomly aim at the fence. After 20ish tries, the player should have decent aim to avoid the wrong parts of the fence and reduce the odds. Experienced gamers should be able to avoid more parts of the fence so their odds should be better.
I'd never thought about needing to intentionally train your muscle memory against speed resetting when repeating a level hundreds of times. That's super tough. Here's to hoping that all those runners grinding like this and slipping up can make lightning strike twice.
I used to travel the globe every day to get the most out of my $12 Netflix subscription. As I sat in a hotel room in Lichtenstein watching the 1996 Kurt Russell film Executive Decision, I thought to myself "There's got to be a better way!" and then I watched this video and found out about Nord VPN! Thanks, Karl Jobst!!!!!
"get 68% off" *we were so close to the edge of victory*
3 года назад
I’ve also done this when grinding out a super difficult infinite combo. I’ve had runs when I pulled it off and thought I dropped it and resulted in me having to grind for 10 hours due to ending a perfectly good run before I actually pulled it off.
@@kit2799 I'll repeat this again "resetting over a shiny is nothing compared to this." People have never reset over a shiny that has a 1 in 90 000 chance to appear, and so the two experiences can barely be compared imo.
@@filipisotter5114 They weren't comparing the rarity of the event. Just the action of muscle memory due to repeated fails causing a mistake. You are being obtuse and repeating yourself doesn't make what your saying sound better or more correct.
Its like when you're soft resetting for a shiny and you've done the same thing over and over for so long it's become a reflex. I've seen people soft reset out of that shiny encounter on accident. Whenever it's me I always freeze, terrified that my fingers will soft reset the game before I get the chance to tell them not to. Doing something again and again and closing out when it doesn't work is a double edged knife- you can do many attempts quickly, but the chance you squander the 1 time it works as intended is great.
As you said Karl, exactly why I always wait that one second longer before scrapping an attempt. Yes, over 3600 attempts, I "wasted" an hour that way, but I also completely nullified the risk of fucking up that one in x000 chance to work properly.
I've done this in CS 1.6 to completed records. In that game, you write "record xxx" in the console, and then type "stop" to cut the demo file. This creates a playable .dem-file you can watch of your recordign. If you type "record xxx" again, you overwrite the previous replay file. I've done this in numerous occasions with short trickjump demos, and sadly on a national record for distance jumped with a specific technique. :'(
Oh man I feel so bad for that runner. Amazing video Karl, I’m so stoked to see how massive your channel is getting. Such great content I hoped this would happen :)
Muscle memory lets some people reset their console when they actually find the shiny pokémon they were looking for. Smallant for example did this in a challenge run
If there is one thing I can say as a gamer, it's that yes, eventually someone will, we are nothing if not persistent. That's basically what speedrunning is anyway, who is the most persistent, or, in other words, stubborn.
Let's see here... assuming they do actually get it down to 1 in 15,000, the chances of someone getting it 3 times in the same run... 1 in 3.375 trillion. Sadly, this'll never happen to anyone unless the strategy is optimized to be a lot better than 1 in 15,000. If someone pulls it off any time soon, they're most likely cheating.
@@thejavaboy-theocdgamer3688 No, since it's exponential. Getting it once has a 1/15000 chance, the chance of getting it again is 1/15000, and 1/15000 the third time as well, so you multiply all those to find the chances of getting them in a row. The chances of getting it twice in a row is (1/15000) x (1/15000), or (1/15000)^2, since you're essentially rolling the dice twice. So for 3 times in 1 run, or 3 times in a row, it would be (1/15000)^3. I know math is hard to teach/understand over the internet, but I hope this made enough sense.
Wow, that's crazy! I calculated some stats and here's what I found for expectations (based on 30 second runs & 1/90,000 chance) 1st Lap: 50% chance success within 519 hrs (22 days) 1st Lap: 95% chance success within 2,250 hrs (93 days) 1st & 2nd Lap: 50% chance success within 5,340 years 1st & 2nd Lap: 95% chance success within 23,000 years 1st, 2nd, & 3rd Lap: 50% chance success within 495,000,000 years 1st, 2nd, & 3rd Lap: 95% chance success within 2,140,000,000 years
Long ago in an older version of Minecraft, putting an enchantable item on the enchanting table: 1. Reset the three dice-roll enchants you could pick from every time even the same tool was set down, and 2. Did not guarantee you could get a Max-Level Enchant, so if you wanted a Level 50/30 (depending on version) on your tool, you'd have to pick it up and drop it back onto the table until you saw your Max Level, and the number of times I got into the groove of just spamming the mouse and passing by multiple 50s/30s was infuriating lmao, damn muscle memory is a killer
Biggest mistakes of his life, ranked: 10. eating a ghost pepper whole 9. insulting the boss as he's around the corner 8. forgetting to pay overdue taxes 7. drunk driving into a cop car 6. pissing off a biker gang at a bar 5. getting caught cheating on wife 4. not wearing helmet while off-road racing 3. accidentally burning down own house 2. throwing away a winning lottery ticket 1. pressing pause during Mario-Kart
I bet Dream could do it three times in a row. If the odds of this strategy were optimized down to 1/15000, he'd be over twice as likely to perfectly clip through the fence all three laps as he was in his totally legit 1.16 speedruns (1/3.375 trillion vs 1/7.5 trillion).
"we will discuss exactly why this happened" I'm calling it right now. The guy tried for a long time restarting every time he failed to restart or save time for the run, after a while he managed to do it but because of muscle memory he unconsciously restarted after getting it.
Watching this reminds me off that thing they tell you in science class that it's possible to slide your hand through a wall in you perfectly align the atoms in your hand with the ones in the wall. Except a speed runner would do this for a lifetime just to get through a door 0.1 seconds faster and smash the world record 😂
This wasn’t just a muscle memory mistake, he never thought it would of worked. Which asked the question why was he even trying? Especially if he is just going to pause and restart without taking a second to realize if it worked or not.
because thats what a lot of speedrunners do, when something is considered impossible/tas only they'll do it anyways. and when doing precise tricks like this, you get used to resetting so you reset faster and faster so you can get more attempts off in a shorter amount of time. that's mainly why these muscle memory mistakes happen, you try to reset as fast as possible when you make a mistake on a precise skip and get fucked when you actually pull it off
Reminds me of that baseball pitcher who *almost* threw a no-hitter, but the umpire wasn't paying attention and mistakenly declared a runner as "safe" even though he was out.
This happens a lot in castlevania. If you want, say, the crissagrem (really rare sword), you will have to walk into the screen transition, kill a schmoo, and then leave and reenter the room. It's very easy to get it to drop, then press the backdash button and leave the room, despawning the crissagrem.
If it makes mrpittjr feel better, this isn't the first time something like this happened. iirc, the person who found Furnace Fun skip in Banjo-Kazooie was so shocked at what happened, he accidentally walked off the board and died.
