Statistician Answers Stats Questions From Twitter | Tech Support | WIRED

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Jeffrey Rosenthal, a professor of statistics at the University of Toronto, answers the internet's burning questions about statistics. What are the most common statistical errors? Why do polls get it so wrong? What's the worst casino game in terms of odds? How does probability work in roulette? Jeffrey answers all these questions and much more!
Jeffrey Rosenthal is the author of the book "Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities" (probability.ca/sbl/)
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Statistician Answers Stats Questions From Twitter | Tech Support | WIRED

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31 май 2024

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Комментарии : 2,2 тыс.

@faded3870 2 года назад

i love watching people talk about something that they’re passionate about

@hopefullyhigh 2 года назад

for real, those are the best kind of teachers, especially math teachers

@cxffaye 2 года назад

@@hopefullyhigh yes definitely. My maths teacher is so passionate about what he teaches and you can literally see it in his eyes lol. He’s my favourite teacher as well

@loveyou5507 2 года назад

EXACTLY bro ppl don’t get it 😭😭 it’s nice seeing how into they are about a topic idk why it makes me happy knowing that they are talking about what they love

@cxffaye 2 года назад

@@loveyou5507 ikr. These days too many people are into professions that they don’t really enjoy so it’s really nice to see someone whose actually interested in what they are doing

@ianoblemusic 2 года назад

Agreed

@austineittreim5085 2 года назад

I could listen to this guy talk all day

@BillStrathearn 2 года назад

Harvard Woody Harrelson really does have the best way of explaining statistics

@Mighty_Dork 2 года назад

Sounds like University of Toronto is the place for you

@mcschneeman1 2 года назад

I could talk about how that guy could listen to that guy talk all day all day

@cristianpuerto5549 2 года назад

right???

@mailesmith168 2 года назад

He keeps it moving

@JG-ce3pu 2 года назад

Yeah, we are gonna need a 3 hour version of this. Thank you. Extremely interesting subject and great explanations!

@archaeologistify Год назад

MIT has free lectures online on a bunch of subjects, including statistics. Theres your 3h version.

@Ackow Год назад

@@archaeologistify link please

@mohamedaminedallali6924 Год назад

how likely is it for a Lannister to pay his debts?

@KA-gy3lz Год назад

You know you could just take a statistics class right?

@JJ-iu5hl Год назад

Soooo audit a free university stats class

@ExperimentIV Год назад

i took this guy’s course! i was an english major in university and took his stats course as my math credit and he made me enjoy math for the first time in my life.

@Gallarday Год назад

Ha! What are the odds?

@tayk-47usa41 Год назад

@@Gallarday 50/50

@kemonopriestess 8 месяцев назад

gosh.. you're fortunate!

@imogensharma 23 дня назад

Ahh jealous, he must have been great! Such a warm demeanor and contagious passion.

@subhrajitsamanta1992 2 года назад

As a PhD in a field close to statistics, I do appreciate how this man is able to explain some of the more nuanced concepts with such clarity and effectiveness. Great episode!

@InsaneGunman 2 года назад

What's your field? I'm curious

@kakabudi 2 года назад

Are you in the field of data science?

@darthfrancium1166 2 года назад

Implying someone without a PHD can't appreciate it? You donkey

@subhrajitsamanta1992 2 года назад

@@InsaneGunman Time series modeling/forecasting was my main focus area during my PhD.

@subhrajitsamanta1992 2 года назад

@@kakabudi you guessed that right 😁 I'm working with a consultancy as a senior data scientist (with a focus on fundamental ML research).

@derekwayne843 2 года назад

This was one of my favorite professors at university of toronto. I took stochastic processes with him. I thought I recognized him!

@CatherineBoyd 2 года назад

Ooh, what are the odds?

@benpietrzykowski9216 2 года назад

@@CatherineBoyd well played Catherine

@pasandesilva2295 2 года назад

How fun was Stochastic processes, Random Walks, Ito calculus... right... RIGHT...!

@derekwayne843 2 года назад

@@pasandesilva2295 RIGHT! He actually used that frog to demonstrate random walks on lillypads lol

@jeanc6306 2 года назад

Omg I remember his frog too

@SchgurmTewehr Год назад

I know people who, with his knowledge, would answer irritated and condescendingly to all these questions. But Jeffrey? No. He happily shares his knowledge, always keeping a smile, explaining very well, even thought it is obvious that he‘s a little introverted and shy. What a nice guy, I would love to have him as a teacher.

@deus_ex_machina_ Год назад

I agree with your assessment, but the presenters know that their behaviour is a lot more likely to be seen by millions of strangers rather than just a class full of students whose grades he has control over.

@alexanderhe646 7 месяцев назад

@@deus_ex_machina_ had him as a prof this year, absolutely amazing lecturer with very fair exams

@rukus9585 4 месяца назад

your bud, jeffrey, lmao.

@SchgurmTewehr 4 месяца назад

@@rukus9585 no he’s not.

@rukus9585 4 месяца назад

@@SchgurmTewehr oh... my fault. I just figured, first name basis and all...

@RelaxxedRage Год назад

i trust this guy because of his passion and the fact he looks exactly what I'd expect a statistician to look like

@grumblycurmudgeon 9 месяцев назад

...a flood victim?

@luvisacigarette8 2 года назад

Rosenthal should be brought back not only because he's engaging and delightful but because statistics is one of the most misunderstood (or neglected) fields

@mehwhyausername1 2 года назад

*the* most neglected and important coursework in high schools. it is an elective at some schools; however, I've never heard of a public district requiring students to take it, even though something so niche like geometry is taught for an entire year because of what, Euclid's _Elements_ is influential?

@jaytxa2791 2 года назад

@@mehwhyausername1 my high school stats was a mandatory class and I thought it was pretty interesting stuff

@nmarbletoe8210 2 года назад

@@mehwhyausername1 I love stats, but didn't get any until grad school. Hard to believe we didnt' get it in undergrad biology

@n484l3iehugtil 2 года назад

@@mehwhyausername1 tbh I'm guessing statistics is taught less in high school than geometry not because of any point about practicality, but because it it's messy - it's less to do with solving some puzzle that has a precise solution, and much more about appreciating what various values, indicators and formulas mean in terms of interpreting the data. I can feel the confusion and wild questions among students (especially about whether something is the best approach to interpret the data, whether it really represents what it claims to represent, and whether the conclusion is properly justified - way more qualitative in nature), and I remember how even teachers get it wrong, especially interpreting the terminology into context. Then again, it has to be done some time, and high school is probably the best place to learn it cos the students have time and are also of a decent caliber.

@FrenkieWest32 Год назад

@@mehwhyausername1 in what high school does one not get any statistics? I find this hard to believe. Basic math questions in lower grades are quite often some simple form of statistics.

@cmdtrigun 2 года назад

The question about "when do I need statistics in real life?" hurts me. Since the age of news misinformation, there could not be a more valuable field to understand. I also liked that he touched on the 2016 election, because that was a great example of people stuck in their bubbles convincing themselves that the election would pan out one way, mistaking their opinion for a statistical reflection of the whole nation.

@mehwhyausername1 2 года назад

I agree; the need for instruction and erudition in probability theory, statistics, and logic is even more clarified and poignant in the last number of years. specifically, there is a pathetic lack of epistemological thought in America, which is ruining our culture and economic competitiveness on the global stage; it's also hampering innovation efforts and entrepreneurial pursuits in technology and business, and leading to lossy events, such as people easily scamming others, or people "investing" in extremely risky assets without knowing the likelihood of success.

@mrbouncelol 2 года назад

It's an excellent example because it is topical but ultimately apolitical: whether or not you were happy about the result, the point is that a good number of smart people were wrong, and that is always a learning moment

@theultimatereductionist7592 2 года назад

Nothing special about the 2016 US election. ALL elections in ALL countries in ALL years have people STUPIDLY ARROGANTLY making false predictions.

@montyollie 2 года назад

@@mehwhyausername1 the staggering number of people who denied the pandemic or the R values or the mask usage or the contact tracing was ... unreal to me. But I've always loved stats, and I don't get people who ignore them.

@alfgwahigain5544 2 года назад

@@theultimatereductionist7592 Kind of like how the media, for months, have been handing the upcoming midterms to the right. It's repeated every day that they're going to win. I find it obnoxious.

@RebeccaEvans Год назад

I love that multiple times throughout the video he does not just answer questions but actively demonstrates the kind of dualistic/perspective change undertaking for each problem that is so valuable in stats and in thought in general.

@Moose92411 7 месяцев назад

Agreed. He makes the information he’s giving us highly authentic and actionable

@Palpatine4Senate Год назад

This guy's hair is a Bell curve.

@nandoaires Месяц назад

Talk about a true statistics fan. 😀

@gamingwithdingo Месяц назад

😂maybe he knows

@gamingwithdingo Месяц назад

😂maybe he knows

@ndowroccus4168 Месяц назад

lol…yesh humsn hair is an hilsrious joke. I bet he has more bank potential than 95% of populace. IF he were subject to corruption….

@nb9797 26 дней назад

Tails are actually fatter. Don't worry, it's a normal assumption to make.

@jimysuave 2 года назад

I respect that the hardest part of shooting an episode like this is casting somebody… And once again Wired knocks it out of the park. Such a charming gentleman.

@krisherbst6162 10 месяцев назад

I like that wired gets some very regular looking people. Something about media always having crazy attractive people makes me not trust them at all.

@bertfalasco1436 2 года назад

This was thoroughly delightful. Please have this gentleman back. I liked him as the guy on the couch, too, in Half Baked.

@martintodd3009 2 года назад

He was pretty good in Frasier too 👏

@britishbeef2116 2 года назад

Yep, straight up numbers and facts, I liked this dude too

@WickedIndigo 2 года назад

Well played friend🤣🤣🤣

@robspiess 2 года назад

This professor is cool, but there is no way he is as cool as Steven Wright (the guy on the couch). One of my favorite Steven Wright jokes: When I was little my grandfather asked me how old I was. I said, "Five." He said, "When I was your age, I was six." Bonus Joke: "I hate it when my foot falls asleep during the day because that means it's going to be up all night."

@bertfalasco1436 2 года назад

@@robspiess he is a hilarious man, for sure 🤙🏼

@Woupsme Год назад

This was actually really exciting. I love how you can just cook down every "what are the odds" to something factual.

@alexc4012 Год назад

I genuinely think the world would be a better place if more people just watched this video! Jeffrey is a great speaker. Statistics is something that seems to be so lost in the general population (and it makes sense why - it's a complex subject!) and I think it's one of the reasons that science / health, etc. literacy is so lacking right now.

@andrewfernandes7383 2 года назад

I am currently taking one of his courses. Fantastic professor and all around great guy. He's really passionate about the subject so he's a pleasure to talk to when it comes to the subject.

@bbens999 Год назад

Was this online or in-person in Toronto?

@rrogers2370 Год назад

Did you pass?

@daClownie1 Год назад

Lol I’m taking his midterm at 3 today

@herrschniedler4207 2 года назад

you can tell this man loves his job and thats great

@mwhawley 2 года назад

I will watch ANYONE talk about what they’re passionate about

@ecvjtv2778 2 года назад

@@mwhawley Aye, so would I. It's quite a joy to behold :)

@lifestealer4699 Год назад

I didn't know Ron Jeremy was a statistician

@marcelohfms Год назад

I like the plane crash example and I think it relates to cassino and roulettes. A lot of people think that because the ball hit let’s say red 10 times in a row, the probability of it being on red again is extremely small and well, it isn’t. It’s true that the probability of hitting red 11 times in a row is really small. But as soon as it has already happened 10 times, the probability of the next one being red is roughly 50%.

@NealBurkard-ut1oo 9 месяцев назад

Yeah, I believe that's called a Markov chain. Each roulette spin is independent of the previous spin but we can still use the chain to predict the odds the next 10 spins are red. I've taken a decent amount of Stat classes in college and I will probably will never play a casino house game, the payout are always lower than the odds of winning. I do play a lot of poker but that's not a house game.

@GlennC789 2 года назад

This was great. People have so many serious misconceptions about statistics, and often their misconceptions lead them to conspiracy theories and other dangerous beliefs because they see what seem to be impossible coincidences that are in reality, just random patterns being detected among the noise of vast numbers of independent events that naturally occur. Some of this was demonstrated by the questions asked here. Jeffrey did a quite excellent job of explaining, but people really need to be educated better about these things.

@Theoryofcatsndogs 2 года назад

you forgot to mention religion.

@mehg8407 2 года назад

I think it has more to do as painting people as "establishment". So in this case a right winger might say that this guy is just pushing a narrative that crime is down historically (which it is). So instead of attacking this guy in particular or even the math, you go all out and say "they are pushing a narrative down your throat". So when say a virus has a random mutation and become more infectious, it then becomes easy to say things like "the Chinese created the virus" or "the virus happened in the election year on purpose". It all comes down to "don't trust them, trust us to tell you what reality is".

@mehwhyausername1 2 года назад

name a single school district that _requires_ students to take probability theory or statistics. that's right - there isn't one. they also aren't required to learn propositional logic, even in college, or any type of discrete mathematics, unless they're specifically a technical or mathematics major. our education systems are pathetic and cater to the lowest common denominator.

@mehg8407 2 года назад

@@mehwhyausername1 You don't need a full fledged probability course to know things like "vaccines are not injecting you with chips", "masking helps reduce spread", "Democrats are not eating babies". As someone with a math degree I can tell you, you don't need to be technically proficient to use common sense. Not everybody needs to take a full stats course (though that would be awesome). It's just not a viable strategy. I wish it were not true, but not everybody has the capacity to take those kind of courses. I'm not saying that people are too dumb, I'm saying that we need to focus more heavily on the critical thinking part of the picture. I think a good course would be one were kids are guided on how to spot fake news and how to identify good sources. For example, I'm not a doctor so I will defer to the consensus of medical experts about medicine. It would be great if everybody was good at stats, but the best we could do is at least make people better at navigating a world with constant info being tossed around.

@stich21 2 года назад

@@mehg8407 Lol sheep BAaaaa

@svenlinden9312 2 года назад

This professors way of describing things so explicitly and without the confusing, using examples in a clear manner. Just awesome 🤩

@ksz7241 Год назад

Thank you for finaly explaining p-value in human words - I 'm a student and I had 2 semesters with this thing, and I know what it's for but just now I truely feel like I understand it

@FedericoMattiello Год назад

Unfortunately that was wrong. The definition is a mess and has been, and still is, a controversial topic for almost all statisticians

@rudymeow Год назад

@@FedericoMattiello The explanation of the tool was correct, the debate is more about if p-value is a good tool, or how should we use this tool. Also plenty of people misuse this tool by mistake or purposely.

@TAP7a Год назад

@@FedericoMattiello I mean, any definition for statistical significance other than "a measurement where the probability of observing a value of the chosen test statistic equal to or more extreme than the measured test statistic assuming the null hypothesis is less than or equal to the a priori assigned choice of α" is necessarily going to omit some detail, but the above is fairly settled. As the other commenter said, the controversy is if whether they're still useful. I'm of the opinion that the effect size should take priority in publications, especially to the general public, with the p-value reported alongside. Sometimes only presenting "p

@bradykruse1693 2 года назад

I took a probability class my senior year of college. Absolutely phenomenal insight into how the world operates

@Decimator69420 2 года назад

Man, WIRED really knows how to find paragons in their respective fields

@BBB024 2 года назад

THIS!! all of their experts besides just being incredibly knowledgeable talk about their respective fields with so much clarity and passion. I could seriously listen to all of them if they had their own podcasts haha

@cruisinguy6024 2 года назад

I did not think I’d enjoy this episode but turns out he was fascinating! Would love to see more of this guy!

@mehwhyausername1 2 года назад

I'm hoping more people will realize how important, useful, informative, and interesting probability and statistics theory is, and I think that passionate professors like him act as good representatives for this kind of critical thought.

@Killer-Frost18x 2 года назад

Why you think you wouldn’t enjoy it? That’s sad

@cruisinguy6024 2 года назад

@@Killer-Frost18x While I've always been "good" at math I have never enjoyed it. For this reason I avoided taking statistics in high school and college so I figured this video would not be enjoyable but he did such a wonderful job explaining everything.

@emwecker Год назад

I enjoy this man, you can see how jacked he is about stats.

@Hahahahaaahaahaa 2 года назад

I am SO glad he brought up what he refers to as the "out of how many" issue. It is, likely one of the most compelling reasons for false convictions in the US. It happens ALL the time in all kinds of courts. The Disney example is so useful too. Linked to confirmation bias, when we see something we think is rare, we forget how many chances we had to see it, and how many other 'things' we would have felt that special about that we didn't see. Great great video.

@erenjaegerbomb8653 Год назад

I broadly agree, thought the Disney example was certainly revealing. Though on reflection, 1 in 200 is still a chance low enough to be amazed by.

@yesdcotchin 6 месяцев назад

I wondered if that 1/200 also factored in all the chances he'd had to be surprised by seeing someone he knew at an event since the last time that happened

@jonatanrullman Месяц назад

Not sure it was the best example though. The case in question is notable for the statistical error and deservedly considered a miscarriage of justice. But the odds of it happening by chance twice in the same family is still staggering. In the US there is, with recent statistics, only about 3000 SIDS-like deaths per year (and not all of them actual SIDS) out of about 3,5 million births. I'll let someone else calculate the odds of that happening twice in one family without an underlying cause (since the point here was the pure statistical pronsbility) but lets just say it's not an everyday occurance. So while a good example of bad statistics and flawed reasoning, it is hardly a good example of the out of how many problem and it is certainly a stretch to say it is likely to occur. The Disney example though, I thought, was excellent for that point.

@nekrataali Месяц назад

People hear "Only 1 in 283 million billion googleplex people will have this happen to them" and forget that...yeah, there's that one guy who had the thing happen to them. There has to be someone it happened to, otherwise it wouldn't be 1 in 500 trillion or whatever. It'd be a 0% chance of happening.

@chrisfitch972 2 года назад

I love it when an expert explains concepts in a simple and easy to understand way! (Both because it helps me keep up lol and because it’s such an appealing display of empathy - he could dazzle us with complicated explanations but he’d much rather give us the gift of understanding something new!)

@DarthScosha Год назад

That's what makes a good teacher/educator. You can get a PhD and be very knowledgeable in a field, but that doesn't mean you'll be any good at explaining it to people who are not already experts. Gaining the ability to explain complex subjects to people with no prior knowledge is a skill that takes a long time to acquire.

@Reir0o Год назад

That's basically the difference between a teacher and a smartass

@taahaahussain1477 2 года назад

Oh wasn't expecting this. I have always wanted to know what they do

@dark_sunset Год назад

This video is awesome. Thanks Jeff, thanks Wired!

@NickeNacho Год назад

RIP Jeffrey Rosenthal Struck by lightning only hours after this interview took place..

@assepa 2 года назад

Another problem with election polls is that the polls influence the result. Some people will see the poll results and then decide to change their vote to something else, because they don't like the outcome they saw in the polls.

@imightbebiased9311 2 года назад

Additionally, you're relying on the honesty of the people in those polls. You could very easily have a concerted group of liars ruin your poll. Remember, you're only taking a 2000 person sample, 15 people saying they're going to do Thing A when they intend to do Thing B is probably enough to screw up your results.

@monicaperez2843 2 года назад

Sometimes a person will lie at a poll, especially an entrance/exit poll at a voting poll because they are accompanied by a spouse or friend, had they told them the truth, they would hear about it all day long, or even worse. That's why my parents didn't even tell each other whom they are voting for!

@randomuser5237 2 года назад

If you're a good statistician then you can account for most of those factors including the possibility that people will not be honest and/or there will be bias. There are whole fields on sample collection and analysis of possibly biased results. There's a reason people like Nate Silver and many other good statistician get consistently good results.

@CleverAccountName303 2 года назад

I don't think too many people are changing their votes, but you are correct that polling has an effect. More likely, it is people deciding to not bother to vote if they think their candidate is going to win anyway. So polls with wide spreads tend to get narrower and narrower the closer you get to the election.

@AJ23mady 2 года назад

That makes no sense

@Boringpenguin 2 года назад

3:18 Just to further illustrate the horrible impact of that single statistical error, Sally Clark, who was the mother involved with the case, died of alcohol poisoning just 4 years after being released. There is also a more in-depth video on Vsauce2 that talks about the same case and it's definitely worth watching. Link to the Vsauce2 video, Making A Math Murderer ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-mLEWj-61a4I.html

@lonesome3958 2 года назад

Whats the title?

@Boringpenguin 2 года назад

@@lonesome3958 It's called "Making A Math Murderer", I've added the link

@lonesome3958 2 года назад

@@Boringpenguin tysm

@onkelpappkov2666 2 года назад

*Yo Sally.* What is it, God? *ur firstborn ded lol* Oh no, my baby! *Sally, Sally.* Yes, God? *ur other kid ded lol* Oh no, there is nothing worse than this. *omg Sally wrong* What could be worse, God? *the cops Sally u in jail now* Oh this is horrible. *git raped lol i made em think u a murder* But God, after all this trauma, will there be a lesson? *cancer lol* Oh no, woe is me. *commit suicide bish* Oh the agony. At least the torment is over. *Sally.* Yes, God? *hellfire lol* Oh no! *forever haha* But why, God? *bish u ate shellfish*

@aqilshamil9633 2 года назад

@@onkelpappkov2666 cringe internet atheist lol

@RishabhSharma10225 Год назад

He talked about some critical things that people very frequently get wrong. I was very happy to see that. Thanks for this video.

@Nekology87 Год назад

That was such good vibes. Thank you Jeffrey! total delight to watch. Hooray for gaining new perspectives!

@Amanda-if7ey 2 года назад

I really enjoyed how clearly he explained something that can be so difficult to understand

@LightningFireGG5 2 года назад

I needed this when I was taking statistics last year haha

@taahaahussain1477 2 года назад

Haha same 😅

@eddy2561 2 года назад

Yup, I struggled with stats but needed the class to graduate......

@KingTubeAR 2 года назад

finally a nerd, what are the chances of a bot replying to your comment in this particular video

@taahaahussain1477 2 года назад

@@KingTubeAR high probability

@KingTubeAR 2 года назад

@@taahaahussain1477firstly that is actually wrong, there are more non replied comments than there are ones, and secondly I was asking @flxmexys

@blackeye7272 2 года назад

Most loved category that ever saw in this channel . Loved it so much ! Very very useful things he said ,and analyzed. Please bring him back one more time .

@whenurefree Год назад

As a statistician, I really enjoyed the simplicity of his explanations. I would love to sit in one of his lectures!

@syedzohaibahmed5176 2 года назад

I wish my statistics teacher was like him, I could have learned a lot more.

@elnobbodor 2 года назад

I love his use of the "out of how many" error. Really mind-blowing that the lady's own attorney couldn't come up with this defense for her. Does anyone know what that error is actually called? I'd love to teach it in my own class.

@gwydionml6479 2 года назад

Conditional probability error. Look up “Making a Math Murderer”. There should be a video of the specific case

@cragnog 2 года назад

@@gwydionml6479 oo la, you on that V sauce

@iesika7387 2 года назад

This kind of probability error is really important in DNA cases as well as those are usually determined to one in a few tens of thousands of people at best. It would be a really wild coincidence to get fingered for a crime by some other means and have your DNA be that close - but if you were already nabbed because you were in the same minority in the same general area where you might be related to a lot of people nearby, or if you were grabbed out of a DNA database on a partial match with no other evidence against you, DNA is not necessarily the smoking gun most jurors are going to think it is if they don't understand both the science of DNA analysis and the statistics (which is why you need a better defense attorney than you're likely to get).

@c2thamax246 Год назад

Because the defense attorney had the same attitude every other non math major has towards math and just wanted a passing grade! Numberphile has great video on this phenomenon where they flip a coin until they get 10 heads in a row or something (which is unlikely to happen itself) but if you repeat the experiment 1000 times it becomes quite like to happen at least once.

@garrettkajmowicz Год назад

It's referred to as The Prosecutor's Fallacy".

@manuelmedels2624 4 часа назад

I'm sure his classes are already full, but after this video they will definitely fill up quick! Great job!

@_Xeto 2 года назад

This guy is delightful, and seems so approachable. His students are lucky!

@burgerslayerrr 2 года назад

I love how genuinely passionate this guy is along with his eloquence to explain complicated equations in simple terms!

@xwwg1wgax277 2 года назад

Finally sat through a full episode. First time in months. Bring this man back.

@phillipchristoffersen749 Год назад

Took this guy's class at Toronto, one of the best in my undergrad. Really good lecturer

@paulshayde2426 Год назад

I genuinely enjoyed watch this. This guy is so pleasant 😊

@WestExplainsBest 2 года назад

Agreed. Learning more about statistics (and numerous other things) empowers people to think for themselves. Don't be blind followers!

@themachine9000 2 года назад

“Cough cough” Trumpies

@twalton 2 года назад

I really liked this guy. Please bring him back!

@TheRavenfish9 4 месяца назад

It is so exciting to me when someone really knowledgeable about a challenging topic makes it easier for the average person to understand. Just goes to show what a good teacher can do for learning. Great guest!

@DustinWilder96 14 дней назад

This man's joyful attitude is contagious, I could easily sit through one of his lectures

@B.H.56 2 года назад

When my state lottery started, they gave out coupon for a free ticket. I went in and picked 1-2-3-4-5-6. The clerk looked at me askance and said "What are the odds of those numbers coming up?" I said, "exactly the same as any other sequence of numbers."

@AntonAdelson 2 года назад

power move right there!

@robspiess 2 года назад

Downside is that many, many other people picked those numbers as well (edit: myself included, whenever asked), and if they come up you would have to split the prize with them.

@B.H.56 2 года назад

@@robspiess I doubt it, most people are playing birthdays and other "lucky" numbers.

@robspiess 2 года назад

@@B.H.56 Yep, most do. But even if .01% are the type to play 123456 that'll still be a dozen people to share the pretty-much-guaranteed-not-to-happen winnings

@Ennugia 2 года назад

That story is as old as time, and it's not yours, Rebecca.

@_stevenrosa9710 2 года назад

This guy is giving me flashbacks to my probability and statistics for engineers and I'm UNWELL.

@joeboo8626 2 года назад

Same. I liked the probability part, but the confidence intervals and mu (meyou i don't remember the symbol or spelling)... I had no idea what I was doing. Most confusing class I ever had.

@ObtainThePain 2 года назад

@@joeboo8626 wait if you're in that class, shouldn't you already know mu being the coefficient of friction?

@greekstreek370 2 года назад

@@ObtainThePain yo man he just said he found the class confusing give him a break

@erikrusso9808 2 года назад

@@ObtainThePain mu is not the coefficient of friction in statistics, variables can be different things in other disciplines

@mehwhyausername1 2 года назад

@@erikrusso9808 maybe he's talking about the symbol itself, not its usage. most people taking a probability and statistics for engineers class would've already seen mu in a mechanics class, as it's used to represent coeff for friction in that setting. if someone says they forgot the symbol or spelling for mu, that may seem weird to other engineers and scientists, who would think that they would've remembered mu as a Greek letter often used in various contexts.

@unicornwhore88 2 года назад

My favourite Wired video to date! What an interesting and clear guy! Thank you! :)

@nitrogen3514 Год назад

I've watched many of these vids and this type is my favorite by far

@rieskimo 2 года назад

Jeffrey's family member "Wow! It's so weird that we saw you in Disney" Jeffrey "...It was pretty likely"

@amar.mohamed 2 года назад

This video is so important. It explains your basic statistics that would explain a majority of the events that could occur in your lifetime.

@vaklinpetkov7496 Год назад

loved how passionate and articulate this guest was

@gopackgo2234 Год назад

This is what a professor should be. Someone who is passionate and knowledgeable about something and good at explaining things.

@wobblyorbee279 2 года назад

the way he explains make studying the statistics is so fun! the illustrations are good, and i love how he answers step by step

@mohammadalaaelghamry8010 2 года назад

Extremely useful, very precise, straight forward and every question is very well explained, thank you.

@WorldMonologueGames Год назад

Great video. Thanks Jeffrey!

@Hondomoto_ 2 года назад

These are so interesting, I could seriously not care less about most of these topics but its something about seeing a normal person speak so expertly and explaining so plainly things I haven't really considered, its addicting to watch . I mean if they did one of these about like botanists I would watch still watch it.

@dea9800 2 года назад

Imagine if he actually got stuck down by a lightning bolt 😭

@zjardynliera-hood5609 2 года назад

I saw this guy live along with other stats titans of our era, truly inspirational stuff

@rudolfvanderven Год назад

One of the most interesting Tech Support episodes! Would love to see more of Jeffrey.

@peterkapinos277 Год назад

Please have this guy on again. As other users have said, I could listen to him for hours, exactly as it was presented.

@laurenlala6717 2 года назад

I love learning so many different things because of this series. It makes everything so interesting. Thanks wired!

@guspolly 2 года назад

11:23 - I’m sure he skipped over it in the interest of time/simplicity, but it’s worth pointing out that birthdays aren’t equally proportioned, i.e., there are some days of the year that more people have birthdays on than others, and that can influence the calculation if you want to go that deep.

@purplegill10 2 года назад

Moreover, the time when parents actually conceive their children isn't random either. Given that they're all in the same generation, perhaps holidays, honeymoons, birthdays, or even some kind of wild tiny genetic factor all played into it and any gigantic number of other variables as well.

@pierrickpatrygobeil3724 2 года назад

I know I'm a valentine's day baby, probably like a lot of scorpions!

@tuxedobob2 2 года назад

Indeed. At that point you have to do weighted probabilities.

@merrymachiavelli2041 2 года назад

More babies tend to be born in late September and early October, as a result of conceptions in January. February 29th is the rarest birthday. You also notably get slightly fewer babies born on Christmas day and new years and more born slightly before and after, as a result of some parents choosing not to induce births on those days. In a given year you also get more children being born on weekdays, but that obviously doesn't effect birthday frequency over multiple years, as whether a date is a weekday or not varies year to year.

@nmd4332 2 года назад

An interesting point to bring up, but I don't think anything was really skipped there, the question was 'what are the odds of 3 generations being born on the same day?' and not 'what are the odds that all 3 generations were born on January 10?'

@gopackgo2234 Год назад

He words things so well! This is the kind of prof whose class you like going to

@s31ispudi7is 2 месяца назад

I love the Tech Support series! Seeing all these people talk about their passions and me and hopefully others, benefitting and learning new things. Thanks WIRED!

@irimac1806 2 года назад

I liked the way he explained things. Really nice :D

@HolaWorld 2 года назад

I really enjoyed this! His enthusiasm is contagious.

@Najahfreeman 5 месяцев назад

Watching someone so genuine, passionate and smart talk about something is seriously what we need more everywhere. Internet tv, radio etc.

@AskWelmoed Год назад

I really liked this one! Thank you!

@puzzLEGO 2 года назад

I always thought statistician was a weird occupation but man, it's hard

@nathanwycoff4627 2 года назад

nah you were right we're pretty weird too

@stevekru6518 Год назад

Surveys often show applied math occupations, like statistician, are the most satisfying, happiest careers.

@AGore88 2 года назад

This is absolutely wonderful, I can tell he's a great professor the way he can explain things but really be full of passion for what he's talking about :)

@langemike Год назад

Really clear and well spoken!

@RainyOctober_ Год назад

This was done with thought. Well chosen questions proffesionaly answered opening up the subject. Content like this should be more abudant.

@vspatmx7458 2 года назад

the person who understands and uses stats will take better decisions than a person who doesn't use stats.

@specialknees6798 2 года назад

statistics is one subject that I find really fascinating and interesting, but it can feel super unapproachable. I'm quite intuitive when it comes to math but stats is one branch of it that I find myself having to frequently relearn. It can be frustrating, but its a super useful field of study when you know how to make use of it

@squeakygiant Год назад

If you are already strong in math, simulation could be a good tool to understand some of the core stats concepts. There are lots of simulation examples out there on the internet.

@nguyentran7068 28 дней назад

Great explanation. Very easy to understand

@jasonavina8135 2 года назад

we need a whole series on statistics like this, i'd like to see this professor and others brought in to do it, although Jeff doing it all would be great too

@anniekate76 Год назад

Hmmm, and maybe these professors could do this series in a big room, we could call it a “lecture hall”, and we could all gather there and take notes…

@jasonavina8135 Год назад

@@anniekate76 actually given that ive been taken stats in a lecture hall and watched videos online i can say theres a huge role amazing series can play on youtube. i bet people would appreciate a series on stats like that. But maybe your totally uncalled for sour attude is based on the fact that you made very simplisitic videos nobody really needed or wanted to watch.

@xynyde0 Год назад

@@anniekate76 🤣

@zusiarosenthal4674 2 года назад

I love how passionate he is about what he does. I love watching people who love what they do; their eyes always light up and they get animated. They’re the ones who make learning fun

@Sanguinaryyy 2 года назад

I analyzed and calculated that there was a 100% probability of me liking this video and this awesome man! Thanks for the great answers.

@geraltofrivia9424 Месяц назад

These tech support videos are great!

@Anders1980olsson 2 года назад

I loved this episode! Thx!

@Gwendolineeve 2 года назад

an expert that talks about their field is always so interesting and well explained

@realLudwigAhgren 2 года назад

This is my favourite wired support so far, this guy is awesome and statistics are awesome.

@hart63 2 года назад

One of the best videos entertaining and informative not necessarily in that order wonder what the odds were of that hap

@zeromotivation1817 Год назад

Thanks , just about to do 1st yr stats course this trimester, was good to check and reinforce my own knowledge. The basis for much of this is to assume the event is random, but also often the result(/s) fall within a normal bell curve. I normally use red black in roulette to demonstrate independent events and some common fallacies. For example many will bet red if black has come up a lot, the chance of red/black is equal and for the next spin is always equal.

@timothymoore2197 2 года назад

I'm glad he touched a bit on "Combinatorics" for the viewers, really shows how many possible combinations and probabilities of events there are, if we are thinking about all the different aspects of the situation :-)

@AlanWiltsie 2 года назад

I often feel like the only one but I absolutely love statistics.

@sukottodja 2 года назад

This was way more interesting than I expected!

@Abhinand-10 8 месяцев назад

RU-vid video recommendation was top-notch for this one!

@set-tes4316 2 года назад

As a med student I loooove statistics, I find it essential to understand what goes on with the maths to understand research results and not just read percentages that could mean a lot of things.

@syjiang Год назад

Be sure to nail the interpretation of p-value like our professor here. A lot of my colleague interpret that value incorrectly. But the most important one to master is Bayesian statistics and the fagan nomogram. Just ask any cardiac consultants.

@balltillwefall8284 2 года назад

If I had to pick a statistician out of a crowd of random people, most would pick this guy!! That being said, you can tell that he loves what he does. He speaks with passion and gets his point across clear and concise.

@wickytbh 2 года назад

I really enjoyed this episode, Professor Rosenthal gave very good examples and I really appreciated the real-world applications of statistics like the Disneyland bit.