Stephen Kotkin is a part-time serious man. Somewhere in his book tours he's fallen for the idea that MAGAts' laughter at infantile anti-Democrat japes is the same thing as thoughtful people's applause. It isn't. I admire his books -- and cringe when he abases himself with grade-school appeals to Trump's followers.
i like the way he doesnt use notes, never stumbles and in. total command of the subject and to cover it with such clarity and precision. its fascinating.
@May Day in another talk he gave, someone introduced him as “knowing more about Stalin, than Stalin himself.” He’s incredibly smart, I’ve listened to hours upon hours of his lectures.
For me, a person born in the Soviet Union, most Western historians who talk about the past and present of Eastern Europe do not have a deep understanding of the subject. Stephen, by contrast, has an in-depth knowledge of the subject and a depth of analysis that speaks to the tremendous work he has done to understand the subject.
I agree...I listen to other views in order to think critically and try to have balance...but cant I listen anymore to Mearsheimer and his so called "realist" views...he is too far removed from the human experience of the region.
Quite true. It’s a pity he isn’t a better writer. I just finished his first book in the trilogy on Stalin. There was a wealth of information in there but it was poorly organized. There were times where I felt like he was doing a data dump, and not considering the flow of the narrative. It made the work far less engaging than it could’ve been.
@@voyd1507 he certainly sounds like he’s a Russian advocate, doesn’t he? Here we had western critiques of NATO saying that it had been largely rendered toothless by certain nations not living up to their commitments. If they were truly threatened by NATO, and that was the reason for invading Ukraine, and then they had a very poor grasp of the NATO situation. given that the leaser of Belarus stupidly revealed on national television a strategic map showing the overland invasion of Moldova, thus revealing Russia’s intentions. Russia wasn’t afraid of NATO. They wanted to take their empire back. They didn’t want to liberate Ukraine. They wanted to conquer it. Geographically Ukraine is a potential giant knife stuck underneath the Polish and Baltic underbelly.
Love his analogies. Last presentation he said.. I tend not to use averages. Your head could be in the freezer and your feet could be in a fire so on average your warm.
Even those who are of opposing political views should study Kotkin's style, especially if they do public speaking. The guy has a very dominant presence. Very sharp and charismatic. Asking the questioner "what do you think?" is a great tool for catching someone off guard because its rarely used in debate. Supreme confidence.
@May Day if you're a fan of Kotkin then I highly recommend to check out Stephen F. Cohen as well. He was a professor at Prinston and NYU who specialised in Russian history and spent many years living there. Sadly he passed away last year but his knowledge, style and views remind me a lot of Kotkin. Recommend looking up his lectures on the post cold war and the Ukraine crisis. And if you like those then check out his books as well
I agree I hope fame does not change his politics...it seems once liberals get rich they turn switch to republican...we have such a superficial system sometimes.
@@drstrangelove4998 You are correct. That’s a shame really. He actually described the problem he has talking about disinformation. Trumps opponents are inept. They can’t get over the problem of telling 30-35% are simply ignorant.
Joe Kelley I love his eye roll at the snide comment the kid makes about the Trump administration "needing more than that." It's 100% pure disgust at the close mindedness...you can see it in his eyes and then Kotkin gathers himself and continues. He is clearly very disappointed at the inability of students to think critically about politics.
We need to listen as a voting people to the Kotkins. Unfortunately news presenters do not have this kind of depth. If we can expand the attention span of the population we won't be deceived. Unfortunately divide and conquer is being applied to American citizens. We are supposed to be educated and informed together as a check on political power in our own country.
Everything presented at the WFB Jr Program is brilliant, their guests are always at the top of their fields. Does a great honor to the singular political genius of WFB Jr himself.
He is brilliant, brilliantly funny and charisma-wise off the charts. Too bad he wasnt teaching when i was a student and I would have gotten straight A's
G-E-N-I-U-S and fun to listen to; I’m being taught so much valuable material. I heard him indirectly how he has been so successful? He works so very hard. A great example for me! Thanks
Where's the version 2.0 of this lecture? His points about Georgia is very interesting ... I would love to hear his opinions about the current situation. He's great, btw.
Krotkin's analysis of the potential of Ukraine to resist Russian invasion, around five years on, looks distinctly wide of the mark, but then, as he says, he does not predict the future. The invasion of Donbas happened not long after so perhaps this was the pivotal event in what unfolded later. Putin expected the invasion of Ukraine to be very much like the invasion of Georgia. How big a miscalculation that was.
"There's only one time when democracy is bad: when a group uses democratic processes to end democracy." Prescient. And has recently been a close run for us. Thankfully, perhaps we've turned the trend around for now.
I think the point that almost everyone in the USA missed is that at the end of the Soviet system Soviet people were not considering themselves defeated, we considered disillusioned in Communism and trying to get over it. The felling of being a deflated nation that was gutted by the victors came later. And it became widely assumed that US, if unopposed would take the nukes and level what remains of the country. That was the sentiment that brought Putin to power.
@@davidlocke7541 Germany was leveled during the war, there was not much to level, but the Marshall Plan helped rebuild the western part of Germany at least. There was no Marshall Plan for the USSR.
@@mikhailryzhov9419 A larger percentage of German infrastructure was destroyed. Germany had few natural resources. None of the USSR (Russia) infrastructure was destroyed. USSR (Russia) has many natural resources. The KGB/FSB/Putin took power through Yeltsin and proceeded to rob Russia and Russians.
@@SBCBears A large percent of Soviet infrastructure and industry was scrapped. Russia is still behind USSR in terms of industry. It was not bombed, but economic and political reforms were about as effective.
@@mikhailryzhov9419 Not true. The Soviet Union (and satellites) were invited to participate in the Marshall Plan but declined to do so (some at Stalin's urging).
Yeah, the usual shoving of buckets of shit down dumb sheeple's throat: that's how I call it! You've grown too fat an lazy on that diet so you cannot even see it!
True, this was more opinion than fact, but 'facts' are not readily self evident in the realm of international relations. This was one man giving a very well informed opinion while asking those engaged in discourse with him to examine and relate their own opinions so that they could together approach something closer to what is true. It was indeed very Socratic, and those of you dismissing the discourse out of hand are almost certainly just as enmeshed in some degree of ideological conformity as you claim others to be.
That US has a criminal regime, kills everyone who doesnt agree with them, whose best buds cut throats live on TV? No one gonna acknowledge that, Clint.
@@walterm.robertsiiiphd2157 that election was a fraud. Dem lawyers ran around to important swing states a sued to drastically loosen election laws to push through this mail in scheme with low accountability, then in those states the big city dem machines pumped out votes for a week after Election Day until they flipped, this inspires no confidence. Trump is right
@@johndoe-fq7ez Lol. For you to be right hundreds of thousands of both Rs and Ds, of all sorts of professions will need to have been in some conspiracy. And all keep quiet, all have somehow hidden all evidence. Or....the reality TV host lost.
@@SandraFerreira-me7xb nothing he mentioned requires hundreds of thousands of proffesionals... A few thousand bad actors is all it would take, in addition to fellow conspirators in authority giving them cover
Wow, Andrew. So much to unpack. I don’t hear where he supports any specific person. From the talks I’ve heard from Stephen, I hear that he takes a very wide view, big picture. From what I remember, near the end of the Obama administration, there were fears that Barack would not concede power too. Donald cannot do that, not at this point in our system. It is true that if given the right conditions, Donald would definitely jump at the chance. The conditions do not exist yet. Yes, executive branch power has been increasing since 1945. Stephen’s point is correct, our fundamental institutions are sound. Of course, if we let them erode, they may yet fall apart, and then we get what we get. Donald has not done anything exceptional so far. A lot of crazy rhetoric of course. I do not like that. The system compensates for that. Donald is not Caligula. We’re not there. The price of liberty is eternal vigilance. And a lot of discussion. I agree with his assessment that a strong center is critical to keeping us glued together as a society.
@@andrewdeen1 ...wait what? Ive never heard him express support for Trump. In fact I've heard him be very critical in his Sphere of Influence lectures. He specifically says Trumps is Russia and China's wet dream and that he undermines the U.S internationally.
@@jon9428 Jon How does Trump undermine the US's position? To me Trump has done several things advocated for in this video. He has negoted from a point of power in things like NATO and is making the tough decision to up to china. I will have to go find his other lectures to see his take.
Stephan is genius but as a man who lived in Ukraine he missed two critical factors when he spoke about Ukraines capabilities: 1- It's uniqueness in terms of being progressive and traditional, call it collaborative uniqueness, resulting in Arabic like social and traditional values are preserved, yet like Europeans where they are progressive in mentality leading to having great education systems 2- Their strong hearts and resilience rooted from having devastating centuries upon centuries, they dont go down without a great and near impossible fight back.
I think he hadn't given that much attention to Ukraine at the time of this lecture. These days he does say that he underestimated Ukraine (as most did). Good luck!
@@uku4171 coming to live in Ukraine for a while and have families there, I expected brave with great military potential due to high intellect and capabilities in computers and systems, thanks for the reply!
Why do Yale students, including graduate students, constantly use "kind of ..." they seem to be unable to ask a question without inserting "like kind of." This is how the most elite young minds in America form a thought?
@@TheWaveofbabies - No it's not called that. It's the opposite of nuance, it's additionally vague and the difficulty of the issue should make questions easier to develop. In any case just ask without like, maybe, sort of, or kind of, and you immediately present as a better communicator, because you are. This is Yale not Fartland Community College. In two years any of these nitwits children of priviledge can start on Wall St for $165K and begin their lives of supposed superiority and real advantage.
what did you expect from a leftist/liberal leaning school trying to grasp facts. It’s hard for them to do without hating everything ... (kind of) like stepping out of their comfort zone.
@@hellokitty8552 do you even know who William Buckley was, and what kind of views you're likely to subscribe to if you're in a club named after him? I would be interested in seeing some examples of students not in a leftist/liberal institution grasping facts in a superior manner.
0:02:40 - J.P.2 : Be Not Afraid 0:03:15 - 0:03:42 - RUS Thing Gone to Silly 0:04:05 - Never as crazy as now 0:04:10 - Attention & Hysteria 0:04:30 - Challenges 0:04:40 - Authority Authoritarian 0:04:50 - Woodrow Wilson School 0:05:00 - What happened? 0:05:25 - Not sophisticated 0:05:58 - Waiting to have 0:06:15 - USA Mismanage 0:06:56 - Cold War won 0:07:12 - Demos 0:07:15 - Cold War not perfect 0:08:05 - How to manage Pwr.? 0:09:25 - 0:09:44 - Open question 0:09:50 - Were not in a good place 0:10:24 - Forget USA domestic support 0:10:48 - 0:11:15 - Hacking not the cause 0:11:43 - Lost? 0:12:28 - One side lost 0:12:35 - 0:13:00 - Facts have to come out 0:13:04 - Can't be afraid 0:13:05 - Br-exit 0:13:15 - Votes uncover hidden discontent 0:13:26 - A lotta lying 0:13:31 - Want voices of people heard 0:13:52 - Imperfect vehicle 0:14:00 - 1933 0:14:18 - Not troubled 0:14:38 - Our democracy is secure 0:15:05 - RUS obsessed 0:15:30 - Blackmail - Collusion - Compromise 0:15:42 - No blackmail 0:16:09 - No collusion 0:16:30 - Content of meeting 0:17:05 - Need more evidence of compromise 0:17:55 - Not sufficient evidence 0:18:04 - 0:18:10 - Early stages 0:18:26 - Dis-information 0:18:58 - 0:19:25 - Meeting took place 0:19:50 - Differentiate True and False 0:20:22 - 0:20:50 - 0:21:15 - Now to discuss policy 0:21:50 - I was just like you 0:22:16 - Policy USA and RUS 0:22:26 - Once again , it's NOT a misunderstanding 1:09:30 - Principle Strategic Aim 1:10:55 - Spheres of Influence . . . And then the West . . . valuable . 1:12:35 - All FLAWED . . . That's the paradox of djt . . . hard to read . . . some substance . 1:13:07 - Think about this (history) . . . 80% of WASH DC (effort) dedicated to (it) . . . 1:15:05 - We don't want that to happen again . . . Only if detrimental. cost/benefit. 1:17:40 - What tools are practical ? 1:18:20 - Rising tide to lift all boats . . . Talking : Nice boat ya got there . . . 1:19:05 - Social-deep-relations but not . . . thick enough . . . relate . . . interact . . . _______ - FOCUS , DANIELSON 1:20:10 - Much easier : We win-die 1:20:55 - Displacement . . . relative rise to our level and relative watch rise to our level 1:21:30 - Balance A & B . . . Then: Nice sand-air-boat U have there . . . not: I nuke-kill U 1:22:00 - Friend-tools : Allies & Relationships 1:23_00 - Watch vocabulary . . . Selling a deal . . . 1:23:25 - Creating a Stable Asia: An Agenda for a U.S.-China Balance of Power _________ MICHAEL D. SWAINE, WENYAN DENG, AUBE REY LESCURE _________ The Western Pacific is experiencing a fundamental and potentially _________ destabilizing military and economic power transition driven primarily _________ by China’s economic and military rise and a corresponding relative _________ decline in American power Published October 26, 2016 1:23:50 - Idea manage some and not oppose ALL _________ Aristotle : Fortitue & Temperance & Justice & Prudence (practical skill) 1:24:15 - 1:25:30 - Power Asymmetry of the West . . . How ? What ? 1:26:25 - The STATE & The COERCION ! THAT's THE TICKET ! . . . RUS-HIS-101 1:26:40 - Asymmetry of Power 1:27:05 - Complex problem for RUS : Big Is not always Better 1:27:10 - Writings in F-A by Stephen Kotkin _________ 1. POLITICS & SOCIETY JUL/AUG 2018 _______ Realist World By Stephen Kotkin _______ Today, as ever, great-power politics will drive world events. That means the course _______ of the coming century will largely be determined by the relationship between China . . . _________ 2. THE BEST OF 2017 NOV/DEC 2017 _______ When Stalin Faced Hitler By Stephen Kotkin _______ . . . The story of the fateful night in 1941 when, after years of mutual nonaggression, _______ Germany finally attacked the Soviet Union. _________ 3. FROM THE ARCHIVES MAY/JUN 2016 _______ Russia's Perpetual Geopolitics By Stephen Kotkin _______ For centuries, Russia has been haunted by geopolitical ambitions that exceed its _______ capabilities. President Vladimir Putin’s recent attempts to secure Moscow a prominent _________ 4. BEST OF 2015 MAR/APR 2015 _______ The Resistible Rise of Vladimir Putin By Stephen Kotkin _______ Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vaunted “stability” has turned into spoliation. _______ The methods he used to fix the corrupt, dysfunctional post-Soviet state have... _________ 5. WMD & PROLIFERATION NOV 24, 2013 _______ Rouhani's Gorbachev Moment By Stephen Kotkin _____ Could Iranian President Hassan Rouhani be another Mikhail Gorbachev -- a real reformer _____ who opens his country’s political system and creates the space for détente with . . . _________ 6. POLITICAL ECONOMY NOV 4, 2009 _______ An annotated Foreign Affairs syllabus on communism. By Stephen Kotkin _________ 7. U.S. FOREIGN POLICY SEP/OCT 2009 _______ The Unbalanced Triangle By Stephen Kotkin _______ The Chinese-Russian relationship is more opportunistic than strategic, Bobo Lo _______ argues. The United States is stuck watching from the sidelines and may be pushing _______ Moscow . . . _________ 8. RUSSIA & FSU SEP/OCT 2007 By Stephen Kotkin _______ Russian Foreign Policy in the Twenty-first Century and the Shadow of the Past 1:34:04 - Investment in infrastructure (in Puerto Rico) if funded by Chinese ? 1:34:54 - Remember some history . . . 1975 . . . 1:35:25 - In March , 2017 . . . 1975 hope was market-economy and rising boats . . . 1:36:20 - HELLO ! 1:37:00 - What will happen if politically closed ? . . . Investing is from outside for now . . . 1:37:45 - Their decision-making process is a mystery . 1:38:00 - To relate one needs to know one's self and the other. 1:38:12 - We have not had to relate to such a paradox : IF a closed political system , THEN _________ not big and strong . . . 1:38:25 - You can't have private property without the rule of law , except you can . 1:38:32 - You can't have a successful market-economy without the rule of law except . . . 1:38:38 - You can't have the 2nd biggest economy in the world with a communist party _________ system of government except . . . 1:38:45 - That's the problem (or relating West-to-China) except, if you can . 1:39:00 - Reports of deaths 1:39:40 - Suspicious . . . Christopher Steele is missing 1:41:00 - People who were sources of the document 1:41:50 - leaks of verified data and false data and unverified data 1:42:00 - A mystery remains. 1:42:40 - What is social science ? _________ Actively seeking information that disproves what you believe 1:43:00 - We tend to do the opposite : We have CONFIRMATION BIAS
The way to have a center in politics is not necessarily institutions, but a multi party system. If minoroty parties are proportionally represented, there will be competition for the moderate voters.
Thanks for making this video completely unwatchable bc of the number of adverts. It’s actually disgusting that you did this, because this is a very important vid.
Outstanding student loans and credit card debt engendered by frivolous purchases are two of the strongest governing influences in our lives. Tennessee Ernie Ford resonated with the citizens of the former Soviet Union through his universal lyrics, " I owe my soul to the company store..."
"Imagine me against Lebron James. It's not gonna look pretty, is it. Now image a 5-year-old..." I wasn't paying attention there and thought this was about boxing... In all seriousness though, great lecture. I'm glad to see RU-vid's algorithm resonate with Kotkin's reception.
Well worth a listen...though the multiple incredibly loud commercials make it a challenge. Who is responsible for the ads the channel or RU-vid? Whoever should rethink how, when, and with what they interrupt an otherwise interesting, educational exchange.
Wow @36:30 dismantles an entire alt-right argument - "unite our enemies, divide our friends" ... also crazy that he plays out Ukrainian War 5 years beforehand around 55:00 ... What a genius
If I were forced to find a sole factor in the confusion of our present geopolitics: it is petroleum. It is for petroleum that we support exceedingly repressive regimes, turn our back to friends and execute cruel war on peoples without reason. Now there is no reason to fear for the future as petroleum will decline in importance but will we, the citizens of The United States, realize our own limits and accept the inherent responsibility of our position and stop serving corporate interests which are not identical with American interests?
That was a pretty sophisticated counter argument. I don't agree that government is essentially a mental construct although it may well be so for the many stateless persons we have on the planet today. I feel that, at its best, government is the sum of citizen desires as to economy, domestic laws and international relations. The moral imperative is easy to track (the debate concerning abortion, eg.) and the cross talk about government being "just a state of mind" can be camouflaged white nationalism which sacrifices the nation itself to secure sole rule. Quite a few are skeptical of government because they are fleeing a dysfunctional one and illegally appropriating another. No?@@jason8434
Well said Jason! That many people are incapable of thinking for themselves I won't contest. That is evident every night on the news if you can stand to watch filtered garbage. That I for one can think for myself poses myself as a citizen in the true sense of the word. That I care for others allows me to generalize about others. There are more than a few psychopathy candidates in our midst. I just can't agree that man isn't capable of self governing and that therefore he should just give up and let some amoral buffoon have his way. I vote in a flawed system which is better than any other. To separate oneself from the system is hardly a solution and I am solution driven. @@jason8434
@@jason8434 Jason, we do govern ourselves every day but that applies to what I do with myself and no-one else. Self government is a tautology and is indeed impossible for the peaceful interworking among sizable populations. I do see the value of the idea which was put forth in the words of Jesus that every man should conduct himself in a manner that would not threaten any other man and that The Golden Rule should be our daily guide. But governing a large community such as a modern nation state has to be representative. If our representative doesn't represent us then we vote him out. That's the best we can do and it's a far cry from the anarchy that seems to be preferable to many.
@@jason8434 Jason, then let us who do understand, explain the system to those who take other people's word for truth out of necessity. You seem a good man to do this. And we must remember that even though we may understand a thing or two that does not entitle us in any way to usurp the rights of others. Those rights were given regardless of sophistication or property. I am both idealistic and pragmatic in this regard.
@@jason8434 Well we have to trust our fellow humans. We do this every day in other matters (eg. driving on the highways) so we will just have to do it with governance. It is trust that we are short of these days and selling mistrust has become an industry. If we can't keep the faith no one else will. Cheers.
On the question of Russia and the defense of their imperialism: clearly Russia has put its boots on other nations land and dared any power to stop them. We will now set about correcting this new state which was simply reconstituted Tsarism. Believe me, the problem is superable and it is far smaller than what we had with the Cold War. Russia has two cards: geopolitical position and fossil fuels. Fossil fuels is a fading power and mobility weakens their geopolitical centrism. Time will play out, Russia's opening bid is on the table, but for now, we hold a dominant hand.
I agree, Jim. I believe the doctrine of ‘Making the world safe for democracy’ was a Wilsonian platitude. One of the reasons I don’t like the Wilson admin. Wilson looks like a hypocrite and a corporatist. Certainly a skilled and daft politician. I would not have trusted a single thing he said after 1917. Just like I didn’t vote for Obama in 2012. Barack didn’t square his policies with his campaign promises, so I could not in good conscience support him any more. We should not be interventionist. You know, Adams, ‘We should not go abroad in search of dragons to slay’?!
1:33:00 China. What a difference 5 years makes. SK was correct about all the things he said about a closed communist country but was perplexed at how it could possibly succeed. It seemed to be succeeding in 2017 but we see now that the closed country was truly a paper dragon and as with the USSR, outward perception was more important than true success and China is now on the verge of imploding which may make the Great Leap Forward look like "Happy Days".
