Steven Sackur and I discuss why (mainstream) economists shouldn't be trusted, Brexit, the Euro, and overall the need to reform economics a decade after the Global Financial Crisis.
Stephen Sackur has a great reputation all around the world where Hard Talk is shown and is surprisingly very popular. He is one of the best interviewers in my opinion and, despite what you say, does allow the interviewee to finish their answer but , as most of the guests are very intelligent, very quick thinkers and have been asked the same questions innumerable times before, they are able to state their answers quickly and concisely. Sackur himself is a quick thinker and well expects these responses and is so well prepared that he has his response to their response ready and so the conversation goes at a rate of knots. We all benefit as there is a huge amount of proper information passed to the viewers in a short and efficient manner and Sackur is excellent at challenging just enough so that bullshit is avoided. Jim Murray
@@jamesmurraylegal He does seem to take a position and continue to ram it down the interviewee's neck more than necessary - in a way that makes the interview less concise. Like the walking 200k if he was wrong point - sackur made a point of batting keen with it rather than letting him finish his explanation. I take what you say about Sackur interviewing in a different way and needing concise answers, but think he puts provokation before this
I am a financial advisor who has followed Prof Keen since around the time of the financial crisis. He was a great part of the reason that I advised clients to sell at the time. I agree with him that nothing has been solved, and at this point, is actually worse than 2008. It is amazing to me how snarky and condescending the media in Europe can be. It makes me wonder sometimes why people like Prof Keen accept interview invitations. Bravo on your patience, and your concise answers, Professor Keen, and keep up the good work!
Steve Keen was right about the drop in the Australian property market. Residential property is down 20% and continuing as of the end of 2018. Steven Sackur’s job is to be difficult. The programme is called Hard Talk.
Steve Keen is like Michael Burry in the early 2000's. He can see a massive bubble which is ready to burst and he's being passed off as some scaremongering hack. The sad thing is Steve will have the last laugh on this but it won't be one he'll enjoy.
There are parts he will enjoy, particularly seeing it happen on Malcolm Turnbull's watch. I drove him from his place into the city in Sydney on Saturday and the conversation we had was fascinating.
Steven Keen is one of the few Australian exports that I am proud of :) A national treasure. Nice job staying sane after receiving a barrage of insanity here.
I've only seen the first few minutes, but I think his economic outlook is pretty good. I can counter his claims about innovation though by pointing out that most technological advances of the 20th century were state funded and not as a result of capitalism.
That doesn’t exclude capitalism just because the state invest. The very process that the state is investing in technology which increases productivity is already capitalism.
I tuned in to BBC breakfast and this was a pantomime of nonsense. To suggest that it is serious intellect thought is a sham. The presenters were pantomiming hollow feelings and basic fears to serve an unquestioning and fearful audience. Spoon feeding them pocket terrors in which to exist in total & perpetual fear. Syria was simply a conceit to cause a mild concern before finishing breakfast & going to work. It's quite terrifying because if you are unfortunate enough to be on the ground in Syria you'd come to the absolute conclusion all my terrible war will ever be is a momentary feature on the BBC & like to basically say look you don't have it so bad in England go see what it's like in this desert bombed hotspot. Terrible and sad state of global affairs.
I agree with Steve Keen that Brexit will not have a negative impact on UK. That is because countries don’t trade. People do! And if prices change due to trade barriers being pulled up, people will act and offer, buy and sell different products. Politicians and mainstream economist don’t understand this.
Hello @@devilfruittrafficker4108, four years ago I have not 'mad' this comment. I have made this comment. It has now been four years ago and Brexit has not has a negative impact on the UK, notwithstanding all the efforts by Brussels to bring it down. So, 'Yes', I stand by my comment.
It is quite refreshing to hear Prof. Keen's position radically questioning the validity of economics as a discipline at all, which I have been sharing in the past couple of decades. I have just ordered his book "Debunking Economics" online today. It is a shame that I have not come across his name and his theory.
Great interview. Nice to see "the obvious" stated with conviction and backed by data. "Ceteris paribus" is the most flawed foundation for a discipline that deals with complex and dynamic systems you could imagine, and yet it is the foundation statement of economic theory. I believe that Professor Keen is stating the very obvious, and being pilloried because of it. No one wants the party to end, and many will go to great efforts to keep it going.
have to love hardtalk: hard-hitting questions, including a bunch of overly-obvious and nearly stupid ones, because the public would like those to be asked. Which then give a guy like Steve Keen the opportunity to explain how it works. Doesn't work for everybody, but certainly works with Steve Keen.
i liked this interview very much. i was interesting to see how the ideas of mr keen are challanged. one learns much of a certain theory when it is challanged by the opposing one.
An insightful experience. From an American perspective: passionate, respectful debates like this providing reasoned arguments on either side simply don't exist in US. All one sees is Charlie Rose schmoozing with (villains) like Larry Summers, talking to 400,000 people reinforcing their "religion" which excludes millions. And this is "Public" television, not commercial television. I side with Mr. Keen, Hyman Minsky and others. The leveraging we see is a tumor surfacing from contemporary, non-industrial, financialized economies. We've arrived at a time in which we require an alternative macro economic approach.
This is a discussion of mathematics vs "common sense" rhetoric. In the end, mathematics always wins. Good responses and I didn't find the interviewer any bad or aggressive. It's just the format of HardTalk.
nanomyou5 Not true - Mathematical models are wrong if their assumptions are wrong or very incomplete. "Garbage in, Garbage out" its called in Computer Science. The crazy thing about Neoliberal Economics is that they ignore private debt. And they make out Govt Debt to be a bogeyman, which is not true for a country that issues it's own Currency, and therefore can always pay expenses in it's own Currency (I.e. not Greece, which doesn't issue the Euro).
@@pebblepod30 The challenge is to come up with pretty basic math that applies no matter what. Then no one could argue against it, and also, being basic, many more people would understand it. I think there should be some way to find such math.
What most of these comments worryingly fail to understand is that it is the job of a political interviewer to play the devil's advocate and interrogate the position of the interviewee. This is great interviewing. That's why he's got the job and why it's called hard talk.
Good point. When economics is discussed, audiences tend not to be very well educated on economic theory and how this affects public policy. If only the study of political economy beginning with Adam Smith and up thru Henry George was required of all high school students. This would help citizens understand what is going on. Economics since the beginning of the 20th century was revamped to become a quasi-mathematical analysis where the math was developed to support theory constructed to explain a world that does not exist. Political economists did their best to explain the real world.
I have a great deal of respect for anyone who can hold up against Sackur on HardTalk. He's a tough interviewer who asks hard questions. I still remember the time he got a humanitarian to fess up that they failed on the show. I have feeling that Sackur is just tough on anyone during an interview, regardless of political affiliation. Keen handled himself extraordinarily well here.
Steve Keen is respectable imho for one reason among others.. he doesn't seem to get dragged into political 'sides' on these matters like Milton Friedman or others did..or do
I have watched Steve Keen for some time now, and he is sometimes brilliant, but sometimes misses the boat. Here, he did a nice job, and looked quite urbane in a setting meant to test his mettle. Good Job, Steve. One point Mr. Keen likes to make (he didn't make it here) is that there is a nearly perfect inverse correlation between US unemployment figures and private debt levels since at least 1970. This is true, but he then goes on to say that the decrease in debt caused the unemployment. Well, inverse correlation is not causation. Both rising unemployment and decrease in private debt also correlate with interest rate inversions--where short term debt rates and long term rates invert their relationship. This inversion has been caused by the direct action and intent of the Federal Reserve, other than during the GFC. So it is problematical, to say the least, to say that private debt declines were causative in relation to unemployment.
It's not merely a decrease in private debt that causes unemployment, but a fall in the rate of change ... Also there's an amount of private debt people are willing to take even with very low interest rates, just look at japan
Prof. Steve Keen has it fundamentally right, there are bolts and nuts that he missed, or these vent displaced for year or more, who from economic inner circle didn't...lets give him applause, his explanations have in the past data assured anchoring...
It is 8 October 2022 - Steve is still relevant today and correct - Australia has avoided a recession because the Australian government have significantly borrowed money - this crazy behaviour continues and the debt bubble is so much worse - there will be a day of reckoning - perhaps the debt needs to be nationalised in some way so that society can reset in a way that helps to reduce the pain.
Part of the reason for easing the money supply is to encourage investment, hopefully by businesses. This should enable the businesses to grow more easily, which by definition, almost, grows the economy. The problem, since the GFC, is that businesses have not invested in new business, but have either sat upon their profits, or bought back shares to drive up their share price. Many people have commented on this, but I have heard no explanations as to why. Presumably it is because such investments don't return much profit, but then one asks why this should be. I have two speculations: technological advanced has decelerated, and/or China has made all businesses outside of China less profitable.
Steve, very well argued, one of your best interviews. Still a little too much with the name dropping of obscure economists though - detracts from the message.
I have written a book on this, laying out both sides of he EU In/Out decision, which came out in March, 2016, so you might say I'm interested in the question. Apart from the poor record of economists in general in giviing us reliable information, the fundamental question that was never asked was WHY these economists predicted doom and disaster? And what were their assumptions? Widening the issue, the simple question WHY is one that needs to be asked with ANY important issue or decision.
Dr Keens is not wrong ......Australians are in so much debt...... the 4 big banks ...have 10 billion dollars in households that are in the rears of over 90 days in not being able to meet their house repayments ....when Interest rates are sitting at 3 percent. Blind freddy can see that if Interest rates go up ...that 10 billion dollar figure is going to raise rather sharply! Interest rates are so manipulated !
Why does Steven Sackur bang on about the "Collective Wisdom" (groupthink) as if it's heresy to challenge a model of capitalism that does reflect how capitalism works. Parts of this interview would probably of been familiar to Galileo. The Monty Python joke "No one expects the Spanish Inquisition" is lost on the modern BBC interviewer.
Everytime I read the comments regarding hardtalk. "I cant believe the bbc interviewer is so biased and aggressive, stooges for the establishment" Ever wondered why it's called hardtalk? All the interviews are like this, no softballs and I think you'd want all ideas to be aggressively questioned to find out if they're correct.
Problem is, many topics these days cannot be adequately explained in 15 seconds (complex systems), yet the interviewer seems to continually bounce around looking for "gotcha" moments.
This Steve Keen is Sharp. He Represents Australia Well. Ah, Except Private Debt gives Hope to the Masses. Gives the Masses a Shot at Success, Better to Fail Trying than to Never have the Chance to Succeed. Certainly at Times, Economics has Dominated at the Expense of Science, The Natural Enviroment and The Built Enviroment. Not Bad Steve Keen.
I'm a big fan of Professor Keen. This is sadly the way the establishment works. They only listen to 'experts' when they encounter a genuine expert with a brain & mind of his own who applies rational logical thinking then he is no longer venerated as a proper expert in which to listen too. The word expert as used by the establishment is nothing more than a mechanism by which to tell perfectly right curiosly thinking individuals to shut up as you don't know what you are talking about as you are not an 'expert'. Why? As evidenced in Japan the whole thing is synthetically created by credit & the idea any catastrophe is ultimately an act of randomness in our economic systems has by brilliant individual minds such as Professor Keen to be proven absolutely false
I have often wondered how it is possible to run a system known as Capitalism, on currency that is in its essence nothing more than debt. I mean, surely both capital/savings, and debt, are both at the opposite ends of the economic scale. One being an asset, and the other a liability.
lol you have always struggled with this, without a liability there is no asset. It is the only way you can run capitalism. It was the mistake you made with QE (Chelsea avatar 😆) all it is is an asset swap, it only added to the money supply if you don't count bonds as 'money' if you look at the different types of 'money' as financial assets then there isn't really a lot of difference, just maturity & interest payments.
andy blatchford You have missed my point entirely. As all currency is now created as debt, as a liability. Where is the capital, the real money? There is none.
+NowisEvollovetion Well if you don't consider that tenner in your wallet or deposits in your current account as real them by all means send them my way.
+NowisEvollovetion Course but what do you think money is? it's swapping about IOU's and that's all it is. As long as they circulate what exactly is the issue, in the end it's about someone accepting your IOU, If a bank creates one and the other person accepts it what is the problem?
Never seen Keen before, this programme should be renamed SOFTTalk due to the guest, saw one with with Henry Winkler and some others not worthy of the title “HARDTalk”.
Ignoring the political and cultural reasons for Brexit, did Britain face the same fiscal constraints that Eurozone countries did? Greece's problem was not being able to adjust the value of its currency against Germany to offset trade deficits which resulted in a net drain of Euros from Greece, but Britain didn't face this problem since it maintained monetary sovereignty under the pound sterling. It seems to me that Britain had the best-of-both-worlds, am I wrong? =/
im annoyed by people who talk about "when" , people who ask when something happens havent understood economics and finance, they are thinking they they are traders and speculators. Something will either happen or it wont. when it happens is a different matter, it will happen , dont ask me when, if you want to know when, it is a different set of work to determine that... if we can say when something happen, we would be the richest people in the world
Very shabby interviewing technique: ask a provocative question and when the interviewee reaches the crux of his effectual response, talk over him so that he cannot pursue and complete his point. Thankfully, we can clearly see the trend in BBC reporting.
the model of backing people to win Olympics medals worked so it seems odd we dont back the public and leave an economic instrument unused when its the right time to use it?
Money is not 100% endogenous. When money from one bank is deposited into another, the reserves are adjusted between banks. Banks thus have to maintain reserves sufficient to clear inter-bank transactions by bidding on them causing rates to rise without an injection from the central bank.
Steve is right. Economics is subject to chaos-theory and can only be described mathematically in the past tense. Globally, currencies can be, and are, manipulated by markets and the unscrupulous. Money has no intrinsic value of its own and is simply a token of the perceived value of a commodity or service by the buyer or seller. In that sense, the value of money is purely relative to the individual. Any economist or politician presenting a mathematical formula forecasting future economics is bound to be incorrect. The 'uncertainty principle' ensures that it is always possible to mathematically explain 'what happened' but never 'what will happen'. If it were, we would never have ever-repeating cycles of economic bubbles and deep depressions.
I love how he defends Yanis Varoufakis and how he deconstructed the German Wolfgang Schäuble who is going to bring down the Eurozone with his austerity policies
I do like keen but I was hoping for more pressure on the question (as an economist, not a politician) is Brexit bad for the UK economy? is a valid question but there were no straight answer or more laughs after that. Is HardTalk and Sackur wasn't that rude, do you want it soft?
Wow I love BBC broadly and this anchor is terribly envious of Steve keen. So much so that he tries to embarrass him and I've reviewed all of his articles to date July 09,2016 and he is completely right except for not accounting for ability to borrow governmentally, I'm glad this was covered however that's the only positive comment I have for this anchor regarding this conversation. I will not judge you in the future from this alone instead I choose to research you now.
Noisy interviewer, as others say. I'm worried about what happens when there's no Steve Keen. Yanis Varoufakis and the MMT crowd might muddle along, but only Keen gets it bang on in both mathematical models and plain English.
liberal and conservative politicians hate keen because he doesn't fit there mold and peddle there ideologies he's all about the numbers, one of the few economist I trust
