I'm investing for both short & long. I do about 20% into my private pension and S&S ISA (5%&15%) for my retirement in theory. And I save alot in cash for my first property (a buy to let) I plan on buying in the next 2 years. After that I'll have to decide if I want to buy another property or just up my investments.
James, I finally got round to getting a S&S ISA with Vanguard 4 days ago, with an initial investment of a £500 lump sum and it has reduced by £15 already (3.2%). I saw yesterday the stock market was dipping because of US inflation/printing money. This situation is not likely to stop soon. Should I get out quick before my £500 disappears? Trust me to start investing just as the stock market looks like it is about to crash! I understand the thing about dips and holding on for the long game, but when you invest a lump sum, it is a bit soul destroying to see your money disappear a couple of days later on the way down before you’ve properly started, and I cannot see this inflation game going away any time soon.
@@birdsaloud7590 The market will move around like that a lot. 3.2% is a very small movement. How long are you planning on investing for? The economy is just getting going again, it’s not gonna crash because of inflation. The market is just being revalued to weigh in the prospect of higher interest rates. But these will only happen if both the economy and the stock market are strong.
@@birdsaloud7590 A 3.2% drop is not unusual. That’s the type of volatility you need to get comfortable with. As a said before you should not be basing your buy or sell decisions on what’s going on in the markets. You invested because you want long term growth of your money. The stock market is a great tool for that. But you need to give it time. You should never be selling out if this unless you’ve hit your goal in 5+ years and decide to take it out.
@@birdsaloud7590 you should have made a decision to invest long term. No point even checking in the short term and taking your cash out otherwise you’re effectively trading by thinking short-term.
This video was very interesting! If it wasn’t with the help of Mrs. Emilia Green who knows how I would have understood trading crypto. she helped manage my assets by putting me on the right platform
very much impressed to see my broker well presented, thanks to her my losses in trading crypto has been below minimum and the best part is the fact that i been able to withdraw my profits without any stress since i started trading
I like your wisdom for someone who did not live through a major downturn. I started investing in 1984. My first crash was 1987. Even by todays standards it was the biggest ever. It was devastating. But I got through it. And after 1987 2000,, 2008, and more I learned to plan for it. Look at your portfolio. Only 80% of it belongs to you. Maybe only 70% even if its well balanced. When the market tanked in 2020 I had a written plan that I would sell bonds and buy quality dividend stocks and wait. I was sick to my stomach but I did it near the market botttom. It wasn't luck. It was experience and managing emotions and having a plan. My portfolio skyrocketed. Today it is very well balanced and when I look at it I say to myself. I really only own 70% of that. The market will tank again. It does every 10 to 15 years. I am prepared.
Totally agree with investing to learn. Investing money I have saved on accommodation this year has introduced me to a whole new world... and I'm now in love with Jack Bogle
I've invested 20% of our house deposit in a target retirement fund that's currently 50/50 and it will move to 30/70 by the time we think we may use the funds. This is due to inflation mostly, I don't believe Vanguard index funds will hit absolute zero, I can cover the full amount with money outside our LISAs. A risk of market loss for more profit is much easier to deal with than a 100% guaranteed loss to inflation by holding cash only. 5:34 is a good chart, but not realistic for most conservative investors with a globally diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, would be great to see the same chart for Vanguard 60/40 or their oldest Wellington fund!
Another great video. I think highlighting the std dev a bit more, would have shown the risk that someone will take when investing over the short term. Like you said, being flexible has massive benefits when investing over the short term. Needing the money March 2020 after a 30-40% drop could have caused issues, but being flexible and being able to stay in the market for another 12 months would have gained you 30-40% (in some cases!). I also think the low interest rates, and poor bonds performance that we've had over the past decade pushes people more towards equities and more riskier instruments.
Totally agree with you about investing to learn. I did so much research before I started investing, that I almost scared myself off it! As soon as I got into though, I learned so much more than I did from the research 👍
Thank you for this video, very instructive. I would love to see the same kind of analysis for a total market international index fund (I would expect it a bit safer), and also with a more conservative portfolio. I would expect the risk of being down to be much lower, but it would be great to see the plots.
I'm 21 and won't be buying my first house for at minimum three years, possibly longer as it is an aspiration of mine to live abroad either temporarily or permanently. I'm putting my maximised LISA money into a 60% Lifestrategy fund to try and get some returns while keeping it relatively smooth. If in two years I know I will want to buy a house here, then I can start looking into cash LISA options. Should be a good strategy, right? Love the video, especially the %+ve graph
Hi James, very helpful as usual. I would be interested to know what you think about older/retired investors. Perhaps you could do a video on that, thanks.
I will move $500 to an index fund like VOO and not give it a second thought. However, $50 in any crypto makes me nervous. So I invest within my tolerance and stay the course.
I think you need to do a poll on the age of your audience. I have a hunch they will be 40 and above with the majority at 50-60. i.e Those who have a bit of money. I have tried so hard to convince my children to invest even a small amount, but no way was I successful. Not only do they earn little, they want to spent all of it on peer pressure things, iphones, loud exhaust pipes, branded clothes. None are interested in pensions or anything that ties up money. All you videos are fantastic, but not having any effect on my children... Sorry 😒😒
What about mixing stocks with bonds and maybe gold? I have run some backtests and the rolling returns for 3 and 5 years look much better that the broader market, with less maximum drawdown.
Excellent video; the 'other considerations' section is particularly useful. I have essentially put my house deposit into investment because I don't have a strong reason to buy yet other than that my peers have started to, but there's no certainty where my career may take me, so my goalpost can be moved. Reassuring to hear a second opinion similar to my thinking.
Yes, as long as you can be flexible with your goals its best to keep flexible. And money in the stock market is much more flexible than money in an investment property. And much less hassle!
I suppose this answers the question "should you invest for short term goals?", will you have a video that answers, "how do you invest for short term goals?" in a bit more detail? This data clearly just focuses on the S&P500 and you did briefly touch upon the percentage to invest in equities. I'm just starting this process myself. I actually placed my first small order on Thursday (Vanguard lifestrategy 40%). Based on past performance (I know, past performance does not guarantee future performance), I thought it was a good middle ground for risk vs return, and recovery time after recessions. Although what you've said does offer an alternative strategy - leaving 60-80% as cash, and then invest the remaining 20-40% in say the vanguard ftse global all cap/other global equity fund. I'm going to take my time with it; as you said, I'm using this as a learning experience.
Good video James thanks. Always enjoy your content. You touched on it but wondered what your thoughts are in general on the regularity people check on their portfolios. I see lots of content on RU-vid with short term portfolio updates and I’m not sure it’s a good message.
Cheers! Yes I think any type of portfolio update, that shows individual holdings, is going to create bad behaviours. Unless the presenter is very open that they are a total amatuer, as Paul Briscoe does. It would be great to see a study on how the rise of investing apps have affected investor behaviour though. I imagine there's many more irrational decisions being made than there were before!
Great video, James. Both me and my partner invested a small amount in the short term in one of the lower risk funds Vanguard offer. Looking forward to the video on home ownership you mentioned!
Hey! Great videos! Small feedback that could be useful: Just wanted to say that the moment I stopped seeing you in the video I tuned off and missed all the information. Really hard to focus on graphs while you're narrating. The side by side graphic works super well! Keep crushing it
Really good, data backed video. And timely! Obvious your risk of a short term loss is influenced by when you enter the market, such as today's over-priced indices. Best to DCA.
Outstanding quality video. I've watched many investment channels and never seen anyone break down the scenarios like that. You are the best UK investing channel
Great video 👍 are the presented figures real or nominal figures not considering inflation? Isn’t the Video message that even with the age of 60 years I should invest all of my surplus money into the stock market ?
Nominal figures. If you have an investment horizon on 10+ years, and you can bare the short term volatility, there really is no place like a globally diversified stock portfolio.
James, best financial education channel there is! -I would love to see the video on renting and investing compared to home ownership. Also - is it feasible to go interest only and invest the difference? (Have to say I am yet to research that one)
Yes I will talk about that for sure! Typically, you can only get an interest only mortgage up to 50% LTV. But you can do a split mortgage with the rest as an repayment!
Love your videos. R u going to make a video on mortgages - overpaying v investing. Free £ due to inflation.Would be interested in your view point. Thanks Sue 😀😀
Or be invested in a volatile stock and get used to it. I've been down au$50,000 in basically a day on Tesla, a few years back I'd be crying in the corner about one tenth of that, now I laugh about it. Long term investing and on my original Tesla shares up 18X, so that helps.
Great video. My favourite so far! Love the first table showing the chances of profit over the years. Then you topped that with the graph representing the same % chance over the years. Then you topped that as well with the 4 graphs showing the rolling annualised returns. Wonderful. Just wonderful!
Really good video, I have a sum of money saved for a house deposit in a cash isa I want to put it into a S&S ISA and want to buy a house c. 3-4 years from now, I can take small losses but not sure what fund or platform to go with. I was looking at the vanguard lifestrategy 80% but not too sure. Any thoughts would be great? Thanks 😀
Nice data to back the vid, 100% agree with investing to learn. Free time over lockdown & uni from home gave me a lot of time to take my first investing steps
By far a better channel and content compared to the other so called "youtube influencers" click-baiting with green and red thumbnails (and colored hair) all day long. Kudos to you James Shack.
Before you invest know your finance but also now you need to know your tech (not talking about been able to use all those apps on your phone, more like understanding how that phone works, hard and software). Because the so called experts don't (mostly) understand tech and how it develops is the reason why I've have such ridiculously high returns. As a small punter you are in a game rigged against you, but luckily those big players don't understand all the moves. Although new players in the game such as ARK are eroding these opportunities.
I'm still playing MW2 :) and played it competitively in leagues. Reset stats at prestige 10 and around the clock again. Information is great and thanks
Another great video. Maybe explain in future that losses on the charts are the ones in brackets. Just a thought. Really interesting video though. Also interesting from the video charts that if you are investing short time even 5 years although the odds are in your favour the negative returns do seem to come in clumps of multi years so definitely something to bear in mind. Thanks James. 👍
Good stuff, James. I park my safety money against my mortgage...easy to re-draw in case of emergency but I do need to add more! I have just started in investing, here in Australia, firstly with a Raiz account to take advantage of their roundup facility...for holiday money in the future. Secondly, just a couple hundred in crypto...just for the fun of it and to learn and lastly now joining Vanguard Aust to start with ETFs for longer range investing for retirement. I'm late to the party but better late than never, right?
7:31 very nice insight, showing that time is a great diversifier. Wonder how these graphs would look like for a market cap globally diversified equity portfolio. Guess the ride is even more smooth.
Just the 87 - 13 split will be a gross generalisation. Which businesses you invest in, really matters in this case I guess. Fundamentally strong businesses are always the way to go.
Good info , I lived through those bad times and it put me off investing, I bought a house as soon as possible even though renting was cheaper. I'm retiring now and have money for house sale to turn into a pension and want to invest but scared of a long period of downturn which could ruin my plans. Wife still works so we can manage for another 5 or 10 years without touching the money if we are frugal.
Hi Nigel, the first step is using the right tax wrappers and then making sure whatever you invest in is the appropriate level of risk. If you're nervous you may want to start out with a lower level of risk.
@@JamesShack I have maxed out 2 years of isa for me and the wife but not put all of it in investment yet, I've put it in multi manager funds. Not sure what other wrappers there are that might be suitable, pension maybe but is that fully transferable if one of us dies?
@@FlyingFun. Yes you can pass it on. for most people in yours position, a pension is the number one thing to aim for, especially if you don’t have one. If you’re still earning you should look into maxing out contributions whilst you still can. Once you stop earning you can only do £3,600 a year.
@@JamesShack I'm not earning but my wife is so could put pension in her name, I understand the benefits of a pension ie 25% added value whilst putting money in and 25% lump sum no tax withdrawal. I didn't know there was a lower value for pension even if not working ( I'm not claiming any benefits ) is the 3600 topped up by 25% still ? I may start working again anyway because I have 28 years state pension so either need to buy back 7 or work it.
Your videos are so incredibly helpful James. Thank you so much for sharing your views, this is a question i ask myself a lot. So was great to see the data and your perspective 😊
Would really be interested in the video of renting Vs buying a property. Also if you only have smaller amounts to invest and want to go with an etf like the s and p 500 or Ark innovation how can I get exposure if I don't have the minimum amount to invest in one of these funds?
As in you don't have enough to buy 1 share? Find an ETF with a lower share price, many are less than £10. You should be able to find S&P500 / Global ETFs for that. Try looking at blackrock.
@@JamesShack Well there was a 90% crash in the market from around 1929 to 1932. By starting with data from 1926, it conveniently eliminates many 20 year periods containing or ending with this 90% drop and giving the misleading view that there are no 20/25 year periods with negative returns.
I'm about to finish paying of some bad debt then will be saving for a house deposit (after making an emergency fund). Let's assume it will take me 4 years to save for one and I can be flexible. My question is do I continue to invest all my cash into say a lower risk vangaurd lifestyle fund every month for the 4 years. Or at some point do I start keeping the money in cash (for example at the start of year 3 if it looks like I will be buying in a year then a year is a very short investment timeframe)
It depends how flexible you can be with your goal. If you can push the goal back by a few years if the markets do poorly then sure. But if you absolutely have to buy in 3 years time then, it's probably not worth the risk.
Hi James, what do you think about a Vanguard life strategy 100 fund vs the vanguard ftse all world etf ? And who might suit either investment? Thank you for your help and videos so far
The all cap will give you an allocation that more closely matches the true distribution of global equities, where as LS has a UK overweight. So it depends which you want!
@@JamesShack isnt the LS a mixture of stocks /bonds depending on the ratio breakdown you choose, but the all world etf 100% stocks-meaning its more riskier. Kind of stuck between the two myself
Love your videos! Sometimes I feel like you can hear my questions and then the new video appears. So, if you plan on buying a property in ~6 years, you'd advise to invest the full amount of your savings dedicated to the deposit? Or do 30/70?
Thanks Nadia. That depends on your attitude to risk. You need to really think about the best/worst case scenario and then work out how much risk you're willing to take.
Great video again, looking forward to the pros and cons of home owning vs renting&investing video. The youtube algorithm will definitely send a lot of uk viewers over to to watch that haha.
Another brilliant video - professional, informative and balanced - well done James. One idea for future videos: choosing the balance of funds in workplace pensions. I have a stakeholder pension with Aviva (as I suspect many others also have) and despite my workplace engaging the services of an Aviva pensions specialist advisor, they would not advise on specific fund choices. So, you end up using your own experience and research and picking 2 or 3 funds from their range which you hope will do well over the longer term. As I am now 10 years from retirement, it would be good to know how to re-evaluate these and how to start moving some of the global index trackers into more of the equivalent of the vanguard 80-20 fund which Aviva don't seem to replicate very well. Many thanks again.
Hi Anthony, I know Aviva does sometimes offer the Blackrock Consensus funds, which do the same job as Lifestrategy. But I also know that Aviva has a lot of different platforms/pension setups so the fund choices are likely to differ depending on what you've got. The two big things to avoid with employer pensions is 1) the default fund they put you into. This will almost always be wrong simply because it's the default. 2) Lifestyle funds that automatically increase your exposure to bonds. You can of course ask if 1) your company will pay your contributions into another pension scheme you set up 2) Do a partial transfer, leaving £1 in your current scheme, and all future contributions will continue to go in there, but the rest is transferred out. BUT most Aviva schemes are quite low cost, whereas you may end up with some duplication of costs if you move depending on how your new pension charges. And always make sure you're not losing any special guarantees if you were to transfer a pension.
@@JamesShack Thank you so much James for your super-prompt response! Very sensible advice. Current Aviva scheme is charging 0.75% plus some additional extra charges for certain funds (eg. Rathbone Global Opp, which is not available on Vanguard platform), so not particularly low cost in my view. I will certainly look up the Blackrock Consensus funds and see if they are available in the scheme in which I am enrolled. Thank you again - look forward to more videos :)
Really helpful video, and the info was really well presented. Thank you! We invested the money we had saved to renovate our house, which was a fairly short term investment because we were quite flexible on when the work would need to be started, and could have gone for a more budget kitchen if things hadn’t worked out well 😂😂😂 luckily it worked out well but you’re right there’s quite a lot of stress involved with fairly short term investing! Thanks again!
