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Would love your opinion on the arm ipo next month. They design almost all the chips in existence and collect licensing fees from them. Imo this fits into your compounding and monopolistic category to warrant a position in your portfolio
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I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.
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Always love these quarterly updates on the super investors, thanks. On Terry Smith’s exit from Intuit, it’s way too harsh to state he hasn’t done his due diligence! Stock based comp. Is only one of the reasons he disclosed for exiting which also included management engagement with investors and capital allocation/ valuation of recent acquisitions.
Markel is like Berkshire . It has three engines, one is the insurance but it also owns private businesses outside the insurance area ( and it also has a substantial listed equity portfolio. Markel is known as a baby Berkshire.
Thermo fischer is not a health care company lol. They essentially create machines used in chemistry & biology labs and more importantly they provide (for lack of a better word) a metric fuckton of reagents. Just for a simple example when college chemistry labs order 12 Molar Hydrochloric acid, I bet almost all of them go through thermo fischer.
He cited the exact reaons that he sold the stock was because they said in the Q1 earnings call that they were pushing into physical grocery. Not logical for him to hear that reason and then wait and sell only late in the quarter. I think very unlikely he waited until very late in the quarter to sell.
@@Aotearoa-NZL Just note that AMR produces met coal used for steel production, not thermal coal for energy consumption. The latter is more associated with pollution and condemned by institutions. But renewable energy infrastructure requires huge steel input, and right now there are no great alternatives for steel production than using met coal. Plus the quality of the met coal matters, and AMR + HCC have very high quality met coal, as do Australian met coal producers. Coal in countries like China/Mongolia doesn't have the same premium grades needed for the best steel.
I agree with your takes on Terry Smith, seeing the moves made me wonder however if he's positioning his portfolio more defensive for fears of an upcoming recession. That for me would make selling Amazon and buying PG make sense.
Thanks for the summary video. Interesting to see two super investors buying into Garrett Motion - probably worth studying the business to understand what value they find in it.
$AMR is a great coal company. Importantly, it produces metallurgical coal, a key input for steel. This is distinct from the coal used to create power/heating, thermal coal. Thermal coal is more prone to the ESG risks companies/governments are paying more attention to. But we do not have many great alternatives to using met coal for steel production. It is extremely cheap and buying back some 20% of its float a year going forward. Don't bother looking at its price action prior to Covid, as many of these coal companies nearly went bankrupt or had totally different management. You have to consider the underlying commodity (met coal) outlook, quality of its assets, and management. AMR consistently tells its shareholders it sees no better acquisition target than its own shares.
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Hi. Good information. However, would be good if you minimized your picture once you start showing tabulated details because most details get blocked due to the picture.
It’s going to take longer than 6mo to say a buy/sell was a mistake. Pretty much any buy in this market is a mistake if you ask me. Take the free 5% tbill and wait a few months. “You are neither wrong nor right because the market says so. Your right because your reasoning and facts are right” - Graham
What isn't mentioned is that Akre bought the majority of the MA-position all the way back in 2010-2012, when the stock price was at $20-40. They wouldn't go and buy 4M shares tomorrow at $400.
Why are you saying that Terry Smith missed those AMZN gains? He sold at Q2 2023, which means that he could’ve sold by latest 30th of June, and earliest 1st of April, when the price reached $130 during that time. You’re saying that he sold at Q1 2023, which he didn’t. Also the exact timing of the trades is not disclosed.
Spot on analysis. Can’t believe I didn’t come across your channel before. Spot on with the good and poor moves on the high profile portfolios especially on PG.
Do you have any thoughts on “arm” ipo’ing most likely next month? They design the iphone chips and have a fk ton of business with amazon and samsung. The patriot brit in me wants to buy some but know that when ipos launch they usually dip
About Howard. IDK about him, but on oil and energy, THere are rumbles of russian oil and gas fields starting to break from lack of maitenance. Meaning this year when the permafrost deep freezes again, Russia may lose major portions of their exports leaving a wide gap n the market driving up prices. I have been buying all year banking on this. So far i am doing well. Thesis. If you have 9/10th of the fuel it takes to get to work, you will pay whatever it costs for that last 10th to get to work. meaning any shortage drives the whole 10/10ths.
A lot of the Howard marks' positions are likely hedges to big trades of these companies bonds, I wouldn't read too much into them without knowing the full trade Brookfield btw is my biggest position, high quality compounder in basically an oligopoly industry trading at 12x~ cashflow. The corporate structure is difficult to understand but they put out a lot of info for investors every quarter which helps a lot!
Notional value of an options trade is the underlying value of the puts that Burry has bought. To keep it simple if the notional value of an options trade is $1M and you went out to the Jan 2024 contract a the $445 strike is currently $16/contract that represents 100 shares. Divide $1M/$445 = 2,250/100 he would need to purchase 23 contracts to get to the notional value of $1M $16*100*23=$36800 to make the trade. Now just extrapolate that out to $1.5B
One thing I will not scold someone for -EVER. Is in the threat of a recession placing your money in commodities. Now coal is more important to China than the US, so maybe look at what the coal companies business lies. 😊
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Looks to me like Pabrai has no clue what to do. I remember him buying into Alibaba, talking them up and then selling. He also talks up buy and hold, but does the opposite.
On Terry Smith's decision to sell Intuit: Terry has explained that he didn't sell it as a matter of principle because of the stock-based compensation or the shady accounting/reporting, but rather because Intuit's management used this measure of earnings growth to come up with a fair price to pay for the acquisition of Mailchimp (which btw doesn't fit very well into Intuit's business in the first place. Intuit basically started believing their own bullshit and MASSIVELY overpaid for Mailchimp which included 10 million shares of Intuit. Terry saw how the business was being run by morons and decided he didn't want to be a part of it.
Intuit has been a great business story in accounting software but that's in the past now. The shareholders who owned the stock have captured all those returns. Today's intuit is a portfolio of great businesses diluted by terrible capital allocation decisions and stock based comp issues. For people who like the accounting/payroll technology side better off looking at name's like Sage, Paychex, H&R Block, and ADP.
I think Terry is wrong, Dev Kantesaria is right on this one. Intuit is great. And since he sold the stock has outperformd his fund by a giant margin. The Free Cash Flow growth per share of the company is tremendous. Nobody seems to like Intuit, but I'm fine with that. I'll enjoy my 30% gains in it so far.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours You are probably thinking on a different time scale than Terry, which is fine. Decisions that businesses' management make on how to allocate capital has big consequences in the long term, and taking them seriously is essential to run a large fund. Good luck on your investments.
Well, first MB only has about $100M assets under management, so he's a relatively small fish compared to the other investors discussed here. He definitely didn't spend billions on options. The 1.6B number is the entire (current) value of shares that his options control, i.e.2 million for each position. That would be assuming the S&P goes to zero, which I think we all agree won't happen. He could also have bought PUTs, tweeted "SELL" in the hope to trigger a small sell stampede and then sold the PUTs hours, or days later for a quick profit. But as a reputable trader he wouldn't do that.
We have been on a recession since the beginning of 2022, but big media and governments all over the world didn’t want to admit it. We need to be wise and use our brains. Knowledge is power and I’d like all the family to be powerful! Just purchased some AM
The Resurrection of AI has Arrived... shorts fleeing in droves.? * SOUN Rising 24 % while * NVDA Up 7 %. We will see if grows stronger this week. Thumbs Up Video / Thanks.
I think Terry Smith invested in PG instead of MA because of the Beta: 0.41 for PG and 1.2 for MA. In other words, he fears a big downswing in the market in the next couple of quarters.
very mixed bag this quarter.... a year ago you had all 10 buying Microsoft and google... now everyone doing their own thing. very interesting. thanks for the content!
Li Lu exited his position in Micron, which means he is probably sitting on a ton of cash though? Or maybe he bought something outside of USA? I wonder if he prefers to have some money waiting for better bargains.
He bought 20,000 spy puts and 20,000 qqq puts, they were 2.22/contract and 2.75/contract. By my math it's a 10 million dollar position, but i dont have all the details either
If you know Pabrai, you know he likes cheap companies. The coal companies have a PE of 4 lol. That’s why he bought them, and he might have exited already at a decent profit.
Hey Joseph, I have been following your content from long ago these days I feel like you’re more biased on stocks of your portfolio. You can’t determine selling salesforce is smart move and selling amazon is a terrible one people have they own thesis to buy and sell 22:17
Wait since when did Howard Marks have a stock portfolio? Doesn't he do PC, distressed and other alts? And anyway, he doesn't seem to be very involved with Oaktree's actual investment processes these days - just acting as a public face. Also, he's a value investor - why would his philosophy be diff from yours?
But if you look his trades, mostly if not all are tech companies,he’s sold so maybe his puts of SPY and QQQ are legit.he’s shorting the tech and growth stocks.
What do you think of Terry smith's investment into philip morris? They have bought new companies like swedish match which produce products like zyn which are growing in popularity and could be a good growth area for the company
