Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi is dead, also Foreign Minister Abdollahian, killed in a helicopter crash in the mountains of northern Iran. Could he have been assassinated? In this interview on The Gist with Stratnews Global, Talmiz Ahmad, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and a scholar on the region, does not think so. It was an unfortunate accident, in his view.
He believes the immediate priority for the government is the funeral arrangements for those who died. An interim president has been appointed for the purpose.
But thereafter a period of uncertainty as senior leaders jockey for Raisi's job. It's clear they must have Supreme Leader Khameinei's support for looking ahead, the successor to him has to be decided. At one point, it looked as though Raisi was confirmed for that position. His death has thrown everything wide open.
Is the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) a key player here? Ambassador Ahmad believes the IRGC is a powerful player yet it is tied to the Supreme Leader and is under his authority. Even the army is.
He does not believe any new president is going to change the established policy towards groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Hamas in Gaza. But sections of the public are opposed to them because they see money being spent on causes that don't help ordinary Iranians.
Economic conditions are difficult because of international sanctions, living standards have declined and inflation has eaten into incomes. Add to that the regime's insistence on enforcing hijab for women and asserting its authority in violent ways against its own people.
But Ahmad also believes that ordinary Iranians while wanting the regime to relax its social strictures remain nationalist in their outlook. They know and understand that the US policy towards Iran is driven by multiple factors and the fact that Tehran defends its regional interests.
Tune in for more in this conversation on Iran with Talmiz Ahmad, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia.
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19 май 2024
