@@ChicagoBob123 I was on the reservation page while watching the Model 3 launch video. They promised a hatchback sedan, which in my opinion is the most versatile body style ever produced. I used to have no problem throwing my bike with 28" tires in the back of my Ford Escort. In the video I saw the trunk, which was clearly a last minute retrofit from a hatch design. I did not make a reservation. My boss got one and loved it, except for the trunk. In addition to the small opening, the weird retrofit from a hatch design means snow slides down the back windshield and directly into the trunk whenever you open the trunk. He has since replaced it with a Model Y, which is fine, but I don't want an SUV, I want a car.
We have an older (2022) Model 3, which was the best car we had ever bought (by a long way). NOW we have an additional, refreshed Model 3 and it's EXTRAORDINARY. Very fast. Very quiet. Super smooth ride (excellent suspension). Remarkable stereo. Heaps of space. Remarkable tech. I really don't know how Tesla does it - amazing engineers I guess? Bravo
@@MADDENCN Absolutely! Many years ago I owned a Ford, then a GM. Then moved to Japanese cars - one Mazda and two Toyotas - all very reliable cars, really didn't have any big problems with them, super reliable. I owned a BMW for a year - that was a beautiful car, great driving dynamics, but everytime something went wrong, it was crazy expensive.
I don't think we really need exciting. What we need is affordable. My Toyota hybrid is not exciting. But it is affordable and incredibly reliable. Tesla Model 2 hatch needs to be hitting that sort of price point - $30k Australia / $22k US & Euro / £15k UK
You're way off reality on price there. Model 2 is supposed to be Toyota Corolla size...Corolla hybrid in UK starts at £30,000...USA they are $28K to $35K depending on price. You get nowhere near that kind of car for £15K
@@kiae-nirodiariesencore4270 Wow that's so expensive in the UK. In Australia it's about half the price at $32k! 2024 Toyota Corolla Ascent Sport Hybrid: $32,320. 2024 Toyota Corolla SX: $32,320. 2024 Toyota Corolla SX Hybrid: $34,920. Compare that to a Model 3 at $54k plus on-roads. This is why Toyota are selling hybrids like hot cakes. Hybrids are now 15% of the market in Aus and climbing. BEVs are stuck at 8%. PHEVs are coming up fast too. EVs need to be affordable. I don't buy that BEVs need to be expensive toys for the rich. So far only BYD and SAIC gets it.
@@kiae-nirodiariesencore4270 your logic make no sense. Hybrid got 2 systems in it. Its supposed to cost more couse it got very complicated systems that is also crap on its own. Now remove ICE and make it from one piece of aluminium and you got a car that is waaaaay cheaper than any hybrid could ever be. Now I dont know what the price will be but the costs of battery is constantly droping and manufacturing is also getting better and better and less expensive. So we will see but im confident it will be less than any hybrid crap.
@@Goran.Ivancic Yes you're right of course. I've owned hybrids and they were fine, possibly because they were made by Toyota but I've owned a Kia e-Niro (EV) for over 5 years and 105,000 km and I would never go back to buying anything that burns fossil fuels...as you say, all that complexity. 🙂
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@@murc111 Close, but not quite. Model 3 LR RW Drive - Stealth Grey with Back interior. After Federal Tax Credit* $36,630. And you can't lease the LR RW from Tesla, you must purchase it.
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I don't think a 5% cheaper vehicle would be noteworthy as anything to even bother mentioning in a call like that, when it wouldn't even offset the potential of ev incentives disappearing. I'm not lined up with this prediction, at all.
I agree. Tesla is at his end, development of a cheap 25.000 U$ is to expensive and the competiton from China is to strong. Elon told us already he is not interreset in EV's any more. He will keep Telsa alive, as long as he gets any money out of it. But he knows that it will be over soon, thats why there is no new Model 2 oder other EV's from Tesla. He can't compete with cheap chinese electric cars. The Robo Taxi idea and FSD ist just there to keep the shareholders quiet.
New model 3 is flawless. Nothing is in its league . It’s a hidden gem and FSD is unbelievable and 99% of the world doesn’t know how safe and good it is
How about a bare bones 2 door hatch. Ditch the heated foot rests and 38 speaker crap. Make it cheap, light, and peppy and they will sell untold millions of them.
I think you’re basically correct On 10/10 they’ll showcase the Robotaxi but not the almost same Model 2 to avoid osborning the 3 & Y until it’s ready for delivery 1st half of 2025. Possibly introduce the van also on 10/10 The model 2 won’t be the fully unboxed production but still have the 48V system and possibly also steer-by-wire
CATL said batteries would be $50 per kWh by the end of the year. Releasing a 40kWh model would mean saving $1000 on the battery at the expense of making the car a lot less attractive for potential buyers. I definitely would choose the extra range every time for that money, it's not like EVs have range to spare right now In short, I doubt cutting costs on battery capacity is a good idea
It was originally designed as a hatchback, but they converted it to a trunk so they could have a glass roof, which is why the hinge placement is so weird. I didn't want a glass roof, I wanted a hatchback. I think there are a lot of people who would be interested in the original version they promised.
Hi Sam, not sure if you are right or wrong. For me a hatchback 5 door version would be the only Tesla I would be interested in. The Y is too big and I do not want a saloon car. Pretty sure Elon is not going to take any notice of my requirements though. I don't think a 5% cheaper version would be enough. We will see in a few month's. take care.
I have a feeling model 2 delayed or won’t happen and it will be just robot taxi. But I also think a smaller battery 250mile range Tesla model 3 with maybe no back screen, could be announced for $30k. If you think that’s unlikely they already they sell model 3 in china for $32k to compete. I think they would have a winner on there hands.
Makes sense to me. Tesla pioneered new technologies in the cybertruck. Battery density and charging speed is increasing. Combining internal and external technology efficiencies and rolling out cheaper products to the customer while maintaining the profit margins is spot on.
The pioneering technologies in the Cybertruck I would like to see in future Teslas are a 48v system and drive by wire which is largely enabled by the 48v. This technology saves a lot of weight.
Tesla is constantly trying to reduce cost. They are clearly not where they were hoping to be with batteries. The Cybertruck performances are way bellow expectations.
Blade 2.0 LFP MY from Germany would be my choice, both RWD and AWD. I wonder if they are moving M3 manufacturing also to Berlin for EU market to avoid new tolls and use the same batteries.
I think it will be a smaller car. Less metal = less cost But it will reuse most of the component of the model Y The same way the original model Y was built from the model 3 platform. The new smaller car will be built from the Model Y platform but the chassis will be smaller. The great thing with gigacasting is that you can just change the molds to produce a different frame. So creating a smaller chassis will use the same casting and pressing equipment but only with different die molds.
@@Myrslokstok Maybe the front underbody can be cast two at once using the larger casting machine but the back underbody is a bit larger so they will still be cast one at a time using the smaller casting machines.
I think you're right Sam. It's going to be disappointing if a smaller Tesla doesn't emerge but I don't think that Musk is interested in a smaller car with lower margins (same amount of labour to make a small car as a bigger one, same number of parts).
Its down to battery supply. If they have so many that they can do truck, cyber, residential etc, etc - then they would go for a cheaper car. But only then.
I'd love a shorter range M3. Especially considering that with a smaller battery the M3 rwd would be lighter, more nimble and be a more engaging car to drive. I'm cross shopping a M3 with an Arbarth 500e, which weighs only 1335kg or only 80kg more than a Subaru BRZ (Auto). I have no use for more than 200km of range for a pure city car around Sydney.
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I am fine and very happy that if tesla launches the model 2 or so but I think that if tesla can reduce the price of the model y and 3 refresh it will be the best thing ever!
Once the implement the full out of the box gen 2 manufacturing the price can drop and margins increase. A model 2 2 seater can easily be the 25k car. Reduce the weight which reduces the size of the battery which in turn further reduces the weight. You can use a cheaper motor and cheaper breaks. You can probably get away with a battery 60% the size of a model 3. You just won't be able to have Ludacris mode.
Holden pretty much had one the one line. There they made all the similar models Omega, Berlina, Calais, Wagon, Ute, etc, all very similar cars the same platform, same line, but then then GM came up with the smaller/mid range car called Cruze, was made internationally in GM factories around the world, including Adelaide. This was completely different car, completely unrelated to the models being produced, but they super-imposed the Cruze line over the Holden commodor-ish line. I know, I was there. So you can do a list of similar cars, and also completely different cars on the same line is also possible. Yep, its messy, but it does work and is possible. I guess my point is, its difficult to say from their statement, whether its a smaller model 2, or a cheaper model 3. A model 2 would mean a new car, which is more wallstreet friendly. A cheaper model 3 may imply to wallstreet that they are commodetising the model 3, which they don't like. If its a 5% discount on the current model 3, wallstreet won't like that either. Wallstreet and retail investors are hungry for a new model. possibly a model 2 hatchback. If they can pop out ultra cheap 2 seater robo taxi cars, thats good also, but FSD has to be fully solved, at least in minimum in one location for this one to work.
The new batteries should drop the price by 30%. They are much cheaper to produce and have a higher energy density. I would like to see different designs. More of a SUV and a MPV would be nice to see.
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Interesting theory, but I still think they’re gonna come out with a unique model 2. I think they will utilize the giga castings from the 3/Y but shorten the battery pack in between. This will also shorten the wheelbase. I think it will be a two seater, and share some of the body panels with the current production…. Basically a model 3/Y with the center section cut down. The smaller battery pack combined with using pre-existing parts and production lines should drive the cost down drastically.
I think there WILL be a new platform that will be a “compact class” vehicle, which Tesla doesn't currently have and I think they need/want to address this segment - might even be a 2-seater. The models 3/Y are still quite big cars and there are are a number of reasons why people who only drive a small car today may want to continue to do so in the future.
This doesn’t bother me… take a model 3 rwd and strip it down to base options… manual seats, manual windows, no touchscreen or smaller way more limited interface(I’d prefer manual controls but touchscreen is probably lighter) cut the battery in half(that’s 500lbs alone), smaller wheels(the reduced weight would allow smaller brakes). You could potentially drop weight by at least 600lbs or more… I’d expect a substantially better reduction of price than just 5% though. This could be done I feel
Are you looking at the addition of higher Voltage components and lighter Wiring Sam ? I think that Tesla have learned so much from the Cybertruck and are taking the time to capitalise on that knowledge. Personally I’d like to see Stainless Steel feature in the Robotaxi and possibly even the Small car. With all these models out in the virtual world it will be great to see just what we end up with …
just need to make, optionality on key systems, inference engine, battery size, motor configurations, noise damping quality etc. If you want to be price leader and quality leader you need to have more options for every car.
Even just a heads-up display. That's not the deal breaker for me, though. It's the stalks that aren't there anymore. Because I'm not going to be that wanker who doesn't indicate, because I can't locate a stupid button when the steering wheel is half turned from straight ahead.
Well a few fwd m3s and some with very weird looking body shells have been spotted in cali testing since late 2023. Also multiple teslas built using a Mazda mx30 looking body shell were spotted last year in different spots doing testing over in China! And the announcement of the California engineering hq had a white and blue future model shown which both looked like about a 3/4 scale model Y laid out on a drafting board. And people with inside knowledge have said it's gonna be a shrunken model Y looking cuv. There's also the 2 shrouded vehicle silhouettes from last year's event announcing TERAMX that elon hasn't yet revealed. But mentioned once they are out tesla expects demand for both of the new models to exceed a combined 4,000,000 units annually. 👍🏻
I think the new version will be steer by wire. So it can go 'robotaxi' super easily by leaving out a few parts. I am hopeing for inductive charging capable (no plug in needed for taxi to charge!), yes, taxi with 100mi range is all that is needed. I also hope 3 & Y get ability do bi-directional charging if plugged in (like CyberTruck).
At least we know that it can't be made from Stainless Steel if it's made on the same production lines as the Model 3 an Y. Let's hope that it's a small version of the Model Y. That's what the World wants. The easiest way to make a car cheaper is to make it smaller. It makes no sense to try to make existing models the same size. Listen up Tesla, don't give us some crap like Cybertruck or Robotaxi.
You are right but sadly they won't do that....Musk knows that he already lost the fight against the Chinese for smaller cars...That's why he focuses on Robotaxis...
When it's time to replace my current Tesla I will go all in on RoboTaxi, by then I will be retired and the need for a car in my garage waiting for me isn't really there. Hope it will be a viable option in Europe before 2036
With efficiency gains , giga casting improvements, lowering cost of batteries continuing the new Model 2 could very well be the Model3 refresh again. Imagine a Model3 version with only 2 drs coupe. Robotaxi will be the no steering wheel completely autonomous car probably strictly Tesla corporate owned and controlled while Fleets owners can buy Models 3 & Y & truck lines
I don't think Teslas EVs can compete with Chinese EVs on terms of price anymore. However, I think the October announcement will be a game changer in the whole world if consumers believe it is better to rent a robotaxi instead of owning an EV. If the Tesla autonomous AI software is that good, Tesla could license it to almost anyone, including Uber, Ford, GM, Mercedes, VW, BMW, etc.
China has proven that they can sell BEVs below what Tesla charges regardless of their COGS. Xiaomi released the SU7 for thousands less than the Tesla Model 3. So what motivation or point is there for Tesla to build less expensive cars. Obviously this is not about who can build the cars for less but who has the most government backing. The new less expensive cars to be built on the existing unused line capacity will need to be significantly different than the 3Y or they will cannibalise exist sales for 3Y. Maybe 2 door hatchbacks or small vans.
With the robotaxis, the competition will not be on who has the better batteries or hardware. It will be about software. Tesla's competition will become Waymo, Baidu, Huawei. And who has the most potent supercomputers to process AI videos.
I think Tesla already know a race to the bottom against the Chinese is unwinnable, in the same way Apple don’t try to compete on price. Tesla will remain above the bottom and try to provide innovative products at a good profit - leave the $15k pond to the Chinese where they will be making little or no profit.
Competing against loss making car companies is difficult, but not impossible if your product is better. Only BYD makes any money as a car company, and some of that is from hybrids. The rest of them lose more money for the companies, the more they sell. That's simply not sustainable.
For the first time others are now catching up to Tesla. 6 year Tesla owner, and I’ve just ordered the new 87kWh Renault Scenic, a fantastic car, half the price to lease or a Model Y LR and half the insurance cost. Tesla lost the plot with the M3P in the U.K., banging up its price by £5k in the last moments before release, it’s even cheaper in Ireland (RHD, same import duties, higher VAT). I was going to get one at £55k but I refuse to be ripped off, hence I’ve switched brands. The difference in price between the RWD and LR cars is also excessive in the U.K. compared to USA and other countries.
@@mattsparks5957The FSD equipment are cheap. Removing them is not going to save a lot of money. What is expensive are batteries and the metal body that is most of the cost in an EV.
It's a race to the bottom Cheaper inferior engines, no rare earth metal magnets, single engine long range, etc Wouldn't be surprised if they're much much slower too
@@tysonn4736 there appears to be a race to the bottom in EVs it's like SSDs, they've cut costs to much they are only better now in short bursts, once you copy over a 10-20gb they slow down to a quarter of the speed of mechanical drives, speed, longevity and reliability are now worse than older tech in many cases - this is for the bottom consumer grade i fear we are going to see the same in EVs these early models with bleeding edge battery chemistry, rare earth magnets, etc are going to be reserved high end models EVs are superior than ICE and maybe the tech will continue to advance to maintain that while dropping prices, but thats not guaranteed - i wont be surprised if we end up with EVs that are inferior to ICE
Tesla shouldn’t go there, in the same way Apple don’t. Yes, cheaper models, cheaper versions (just like Apple SE), but keep out of the bottom of the pond. Sounds like Tesla are going to pivot away from cars anyway.
I disagree. Tesla is segmenting the market. They could have made the model 3 a cheaper version of the model S, but that just degrades the value associated with the model S. A cheaper version of the 3 means putting pressure on the margins of the existing model 3 line up. It is better to have a model 2 that would have a $25k USD entry point, then a LR for maybe $32k and a performance for maybe $38k. Different market segment, different buyers. My tip is that it will be a small hatch. The $25k will be 2 door. The others will be 4 door.
Yikes, Sam, your right eye looks swollen or infected. Take care and get plenty of rest and nutrition! Thanks for the Tesla update and your insightful guesses on what revelations are ahead. I will keep your guesses in mind as I remain open to whatever happens. Best wishes!
Minivans are extremely popular for traditional taxis and ride share....I don't understand why Tesla is building the Robotaxi as a subcompact. Tesla seems to not understand what utility vehicles are. Taxis, pickup trucks, 18 wheelers and vans are all utility vehicles. With all of them form follows function. People don't buy pickups with useless beds, they don't rent cars they don't fit in and with a Semi they don't buy a day cab that's as long as a sleeper cab....I'm sure they'll find buyers for all of them, but not as many as if they had from the start designed these vehicles with the people who would be using them in mind.
Most taxi rides have one passenger. Also, the US is only 5% of the world's population and NOT the first place these taxis will be used. China will see these first.
Who says they aren’t? When Tesla unveiled the Unboxed production method they showed multiple new cars still under development. One of them was definitely a van shape. Sure, the 1 or 2 passenger Robotaxi will cover a huge part of the urban ride share, but don’t assume that’s the only that’s the only new car that will be launched.
Did anyone else hear Elon slip and call it the, "Cyber Taxi," Then correct himself and call it the robo-taxi? It's going to be a Cyber taxi. This should be interesting
Agree - Impossible to manufacture a new bottom up vehicle on an existing line in such a short timescale and with a now reduced workforce.... Tesla are simply sweating the assets to get to that 3M EV/Yr volume.
Sam, think you have it totally wrong, but we will know in a short space of time. As others have siad in the comments, a hatchback model 3 would be great in Europe. Fingers crossed on my part as this is what I want!
I think Tesla will be successful with a "greener" version, sodium battery, iron motor, all-season tires. Sodium battery because range is not a real problem for commuters, in fact the distance from home to workplace and back is enough, so daily charging at home covers the need, I think 32kW is plenty. Having said that, I would very much like to see a station wagon, the last Swedish volvo V70 (2015) are favorites for last ICE owners. In fact, the energy consumption does not matter much, although the Hyundai ioniq 6 and Mercedes-Benz EQS can do something, it is the practicality that prevails. OK to van/camper, and short two seat, two door that will also find a market.
yes, I thought the same, since Tesla talked about the future lineup and the car displayed under a sheet had the shape of a Model 3. Furthermore, Tesla will have external 4680 supply and ramp its own 4680 battery production, so maybe they will use it for the more affordable models of the 3 and Y, or (and) CATL´s new battery.
Lighter vehicles aren't all good. Here in the swedish winters you want a heavier car to drive more steady on the road. I have actually at one point bought a new car just by that parameter. I needed a somewhat heavier car for my 130 km highway commute
I don't think Tesla would have pushed back to the 10.10. Just for the updates you have mentioned. I do think it will be a new model2/robotaxi and they need to be able to present it/them.
Seems that if they lose all the high tech stuff it would be less expensive. I would go with a vehicle with just cruise control, a heater, air conditioning and an inexpensive stereo.
I feared this would happen. Instead of giving us more range, they give us the same pitiful range. People have got used to it, so Tesla is sticking with it.
Elon has said repeatedly that there will be no "Juniper" this year so Q424 is wrong. No new gigapresses as they cost hundreds of millions. They will use THE SAME PRODUCTION LINES so smaller M3 and MY variants in the inerim
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