@@XIN3OHd They can afford one loss if they beat App State at Boone, as that's the one tough game on their schedule. If the one game they lose is that App State game, they have no chance. There are a good chunk of G5 teams that can finish 11-2 and make it in over a 12-1 Liberty unless Liberty has that App win under their belt. If they go 12-1 though and another G5 team also goes 12-1, no shot they get in
Liberty is in the 1 loss club this year, committee is going to punish all teams with bottom 10 strength of schedule, not enough time has gone by (most recent game) since they got took to the woodshed by Oregon.
@@andrewblakeslee8709 No, they would not. Also, Liberty had zero losses and SMU had one. The committee usually prioritized a Group Of Five Champion with zero losses over the others for Bowl Selection. If Liberty have lost once that year, they would have done SMU
In the new era, G5 teams will need a 0/1 loss record to grab that 12th team automatic spot. You will need to be the #1 G5 team in the country with a decent strength of schedule. The Liberty blowout loss to Oregon last year will definitely scare some committee members from G5 12-0 teams with very soft schedules.
This is the first time I've seen anyone do this type of analysis. I love it and great job presenting it as well. Do you think you can do this same analysis again let's say halfway through the year which would allow you to use updated strength of schedule stats but also you could eliminate teams from the list that already exceeded their threshold for losses. In fact this could be done weekly but that would require a lot of work. At a minimum I hope to see this analysis again at the beginning of each season. Cheers.
one thing that complicates this is the autobids. For example if a P4 team goes 0-3 in the non conference then only loses 1 conference game they have a legit shot of playing in a title game and getting an auto bid
We need to have a reverse 12 team Playoff: The bottom teams in every p4 conference get a 1-4 seed The worst g5 team gets the 5th seed The other teams are seeded accordingly The teams play and the losers advance we keep going until we crown the ultimate looser. Not national champion but National Chump-ion
I think another reason why the 4-TEAM playoff was never really going to work is that the bowl system was retained. I don't think they can truly do a playoff system and a bowl system at the same time, without a lot of problems and a lot of teams getting screwed over. Not to mention NIL, players opting out or transferring, and what teams no longer giving a damn about it anymore. If they are really going to do this playoff system they're going to have to do away with the bowl system.
You would really need to expand the playoffs then. The bowls are also an opportunity to see upcoming talent and give people SOMETHING to look forward to. If only 12 teams out of 134 can play in the post season the smaller schools will get unbelievably shafted and you'll see college football as a whole splinter into even more subdivisions. Maybe make 2 playoffs? Make the bowl system into it's own playoff to keep the revenue from visiting teams to take home some kind of pride. Kind of like the NIL tournament in college basketball
@@Titan_Speakerman2583 The bowl games lost the prestige they used to have. There's just too many bowls and mediocre teams could get them, so players rather opted out to avoid injury. JMU earned its first ever bowl, but there were still doubts if the best players would actually play (they did). So many players transfer each year which probably lessens the spirit each team has for their school. They're not playing for the school's legacy, they're playing for their own career. Transferring is better for the players, but worse for the bowls and hurts lower tier teams ability to develop year over year. Had a good season? Well now all your staff and players are leaving for another team.
I know you are considering even the smallest scenarios, but as a Nebraska fan I genuinely don’t think it’s possible for us to make it in at anything less than 10-2. I guess if we beat Ohio State on the road, got into the conference final at 10-2, made the conference championship, and lost a close game to drop to 10-3, MAYBE it could happen. By far the most reasonable outcome where we could make the playoff is going 10-2 with non blowout losses to USC and Ohio State.
Florida might be the only team you could argue would be acceptable making it in as 8-4... or at the very least for sure at 9-4. Also Liberty being ranked like 20 while being undefeated was because they were just an inferior team to the other top end G5 teams. They legit hadn't beat anyone. 0-0 in games vs decent teams is really awful. If Boise goes 12-1 even though, I could see top 15. Memphis and Boise both should realistically be top 10 if they go 13-0 each.
This doesn’t really consider out of conference losses. A power 4 team like Georgia loses 4 out of conference games then goes undefeated in conference and wins their conference championship would probably be in. Especially if another power 4 conference was terrible
While you’re technically correct. There is probably a better chance that the aliens come down to earth rather than a p4 champ losing all 4 of their “cupcake” non-con games. The best example for your chaos scenario was Florida this year who played 3 p4 programs in the non-conference but they’re already out of it.
4:13 Pitt in 2018 was the 2nd best team in the ACC at 6-2 with the head to head over 6-2 Syracuse. Everyone beside Clemson was 5-3 or worse. They were 7-5 losing non-con games to Notre Dame, Penn State, and, UCF. If they beat Clemson they would probably be in, but maybe sniped for a second G5 team.
If it ends up to where Florida play 8 ranked teams like they do now or even better 9 and they beat let’s say Miami, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, FSU and all those teams are ranked similarly to where they are now come the playoffs and loss to let’s say Texas who ends up as #4, Tennessee at #17, Texas A&M #20, Mississippi State they may have a shot but I do agree that even then it would still be unlikely but not impossible.
Liberty might have another undefeated regular season. Weakest schedule in the FBS, and their toughest game is against App St. I'm sure they'll treat that as something like a play-in game, but yeah I guess we'll see how good App St is this year.
Because of the expanded conferences and unbalanced schedules I don't see a 2 loss team making the playoffs maybe if the 2nd loss was in the conference title game but more likely is a 1 loss p4 team will get left out of the CFP after week 2 we still could have 20 p4 teams end the season with 1 loss not including group of 5 teams
How did you put liberty in the 2 loss group? Their schedule is so horrifically bad that if they even lose one, there’s a good chance they don’t make it in .
it's a 12-team playoff. The regular season means nothing. Every team gets in. "No they don't," you reply. When's the last time any team ranked 13 or below was relevant or mattered in any way? The playoffs will contain 5-7 decent teams and a bunch of filler to get to 12.
just so you're aware Connecticut is not a group of 5, they are independent meaning they would have to go undefeated and selected by the committee, dim the Notre Dame don't have an auto bid.
idc how hard your schedule is. if you lose FOUR (let alone three…) games in a 12 game season, you DO NOT deserve to be in the playoff! how do you expect to win in the playoff if you can’t beat ranked teams in the regular season?
Mostly close games except Oregon and WSU. Nebraska should be better as well. Winning one possession games is not a skill, every team eventually has a .500 record once they play enough of them
They won 1 game. Then they improved by three games the next year and were clearly a WAY better team. I hat Colorado as much as the next guy but you can clearly see improvement and they will be better. Probably 6 or 7 wins
@@andrewblakeslee87096 or 7 wins isn’t too much of a stretch, but this guy is overrating them saying they can lose 3 games and still be in the playoffs
Appreciate the research done, but I strongly disagree. Every Power 4 school is in the 4-loss caregory. Imagine losing 2 non-conference games, losing 2 conference games, but winning the conference. A 9-4 Power 4 conference champion will not be below two Group of 5 champions in most years. The automatic qualifiers for top 5 conference champs puts the entire Power 4 into the 4-loss category. Edit: Imagine Georgia loses to Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida, and Ole Miss, but wins all other games. They still make it to the SEC championship and avenge their loss to Ole Miss to win the SEC. Are there 5 other conference champions that are getting in over this 9-4 Georgia team?
History shows us that teams with 4 losses just don’t make the conference title game, especially with no divisions. It could happen, but it’s very unlikely.
If Florida goes 8-4 I would put them in. But the politically correct committee and all the traditionalist “the games must matter” people would never let that happen. Games should only matter in a league with equitable SOS amongst all teams, like the NFL
looking through the rankings. if you're really really lucky you can make it in with 9 and 3. but most years you can't. if you're 10 and 2 and you have a half a decent schedule you're in
