The Australian Property Market Just Got Harder 

peak ponzi - now here is my question. when AML laws on property transactions are introduced, do we do an audit on all historical purchases and will any illegal purchases forced sell? what % and impact to prices?

Very informative Video Nero… long term investors will benefit out of your videos. For young talents landing in Australia, is there an advice for them for purchase of land and constructing.. the availability is only far from CBD ..what is the right choice and advise for them?

Nero, your videos are always clear, informative and unbiased. Thank you

Thankyou for this great and detailed analysis, anyone can see this is a completely crazy & unmanageable situation. We bought a property in Mackay Qld last year, have only had the house barely a year & the same agent called us to see if we would sell saying he could already get us 150 more than we bought it for under a year ago...insane! What also needs to be counted in is the 660+ thousand students that come in every year on top of the other immigration, most of these students use this as a gateway into the country & never return home...so add that to the already 500+ thousand & thats nearly 1.2 million a year, completely unsustainable, lucky country no more.

So if demand is so strong, then why are so many developers/ builders are going bust????

I just ordered your book Niro, thanks

When will Melbourne metro likely recover? I looked up some stats and looks like net population growth in Melbourne is still strong but less growth

Taking too long for new housing approvals? Need alternative housing type but not going to happen.

The outer new suburbs in the North of Melbourne are still being snapped up quickly by overseas investors

Stats are all fine but think of a bigger picture. Government is reducing students intake from this year. Also, these 547,000 people who arrived here are not here permanently. Most of them will have to leave because of recent changes, so I think we will see more people will be leaving after completing studies than arriving. So, demand will reduce and people who are buying now due to FOMO might end up regretting their decision.

Right at this moment Sydney is going ballistic again. 30-40 people at every open house. Bidding wars at auctions prices going through the roof. $1mil in Sydney is average apartment money don’t even look at houses.

What is your forecast for ACT? Do you see any significant increase for ACT just like in QLD and WA?

Yes it sounds reasonable and many repating it , except that is simply not true. increasing property supply alone doesn’t necessarily lead to lower real estate prices due to several factors: Market Dynamics: the property market is influenced by more than just supply and demand. Factors like investor behavior, financial policies, and market speculation play significant roles Developer Practices: developers often control the release of new properties to maintain high prices. This practice, known as “drip feeding,” ensures that supply is limited even when there is potential for more1. Policy and Regulation: policies and regulations often favor property developers and investors, which can distort the market. For example, rezoning and planning decisions can be influenced by powerful interest groups1. Affordability Myths: calls for increased supply as a solution to affordability issues are often misleading. Without addressing the underlying economic and policy factors, simply building more homes won’t make them affordable at all!!! Why pricing rising so fast: Low interest rates during the covid started the snow ball. Government incentives, record immigration in short period of time, developer practices. Increase if incomes etc. supply is not a big deal here. Less social housing nore poeple joining market as well, interior immigration to qld to WA , speculative behaviour, investors activity and so on

Its all very well there being a big short fall of housing but if the people who want them can't afford it then it pointless building them just create alot of tents and caravans -)

Agree - What's happening in Perth, Brisbane - FOMO, FOMO, FOMO. People buying now in this highs are 100% going to doom. Markets cycles will always have ups and down. Melbourne land tax, Sydney's usual madness is driving Perth and Brisbane - if not these cities are useless - not many jobs , opportunities.

like your chanel. only talks the facts and data.

Australian Real Estate is a bubble economy. The sooner people wake up and take steps to diversify their investments and reduce their exposure to Australian real estate, the better it will be for all concerned. We need to gently deflate the bubble rather than pop it, to play out the analogy. Every honest Australian economist holds this truth to be self evident.

The property prices could fall after another 2 rate rises, as there are very many mortgage holders who are already under severe mortgage stress and will have no choice but to sell up in the next year or 2. Plus Chinese government is clamping down hard on foreign investment as they are now desperate to keep capital within their own country.

We are at an average of 2.5 people per property. It's a sign of an affluent society but also probably not sustainable at present. Household size fell from an average of 4.5 people per household in 1911 to 3.6 people per household in 1961, and then to around 2.6 from 2001. The average was slightly lower, at 2.5, in 2021. Imagine what happens to demand if we go back up to 3.5 per household. 1100 businesses going to the wall each month, 20,000 distressed sales in Qld last year, inflation high, only 1 new job being created for every 4 new immigrants. Not to mention, international influences. Do the math. After 60 years watching the property market, I can tell you that anything can and probably will happen.

If you want to be able to afford a house on average income, you should want house prices to fall. Support government initiatives that REDUCE demand and INCREASE supply.

At present, people have started believing that the market will never decline. It seems like everyone is dreaming of owning a home because they expect prices to keep rising. However, your analysis in this video might be proven wrong in the coming months. The reality is that most people who could afford to buy homes have already done so, leaving behind only those who can’t afford to purchase. Soon, the property market will slow down significantly, and this is already happening in Australia’s most dynamic market, Canberra. Prices have fallen by as much as 10%. While the data hasn’t reflected this yet, it will be evident in the next few months.

Seems like Perth will still lead price growth over the next 24 months.

Nero with the stats 🔥

Down down down 😁

Also the number of dwellings required can be reduced by increasing the per dwelling occupancy rate. The average new home in Australia would house 12 people in most Asian countries.

What a waste of my time , told me nothing that we dont already know , some states going up some going down , how about affordability is off the charts

The biggest issue is when will migrants start looking elsewhere to move to…

7:13 Poor real estate agent not having a home to sell. I hope they're going to be okay. Will they be able to eat? Do they need some help? I'm sure said real estate is sleeping just fine at night. How many properties do they own? What about all the properties they're managing? How about the real people that were made homeless from all yhr rent increases forced upon their tenants?

Get rid of that texta sound, it's awful. Sounds like a scratch

Melbourne is gonna go up soon.

Boring

Don’t get confused with incoming migrants where are jobs for existing citizens who can pay for million dollar houses