3:14 Of the 20 most-used forward lines this season, Mal/Dowd/NAK had the 6th-lowest expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (2.24)... *despite starting in the D-zone 90% OF THE TIME* That means all but FIVE offensive, elite scoring lines were giving up chances-against more often than a line who almost never started in the O-zone.
Also it is interesting how easy it is to explain why a player or line is good offensively(Lots of goals, good passer/playmaker, Shooting% etc.) but way more complicated and difficult to explain why a player or line is good defensively. Tbh might be why we don't have a defensive defenseman of the year award even though those guys deserve absolutely deserve recognition.
Wholeheartedly agree. Even the dZS% stat only *implies* defensive skill, and can't be 100% tied directly to it, unlike goals/points/etc. can to offensive skill. Before I started making the video, I polled Caps fans to ask if they had any non-goal, defense-oriented highlights or at least memories of Dowd that I could dig up. I only got one, which goes to show how poorly-documented good defensive plays are. Thank you for watching!
@@PinholesGraham disagree i think offensive ability can be deceptive in terms of stats too. getting your team in good positions or being in good positions may not lead to tangible points
this was such an interesting look into something that can get glossed over so eaaily, like with how fast hockey players can cross the ice from one end to the other I haven't really thought abt how often someone has to start a shift on the d-zone, but then there's the times when a team just struggles to cross the blue line and the importance of an o-zone faceoff gets amplified
One thing to mention real quick is that Dowd has been putting up these stats while playing under 70 games a season. Last season, he played 64 games, but his toi has been a career high at 15:12. Not bad for a guy who got only 1 4th place votes in the Selkie voting.
DUDE! You are meant to be a hockey youtuber, this video is absolutely fantastic. You are a true capitols fan and are doing them so much justice with this vid, I love to see it.
anytime the caps are ever mentioned i perk up because we might as well be irrelevant in the news discussions without ovi lol. seeing this video is amazing, uncovering the truths behind our team to the public, and i very much appreciate that Pine. Amazing video
It’s gonna be tragic if he retires cupless. Missed out on the Caps cup run by one season. That 2019 team looked so good, too. I feel like if they had survived Carolina they had a real good chance at repeating (maybe not now that I remember Oshie went down for the rest of the playoffs). Or if they HADN’T FIRED TROTZ for Reirden who double shifted Ovi and Backstrom into the dirt like it was 2008. Regardless, Dowd has been awesome to watch every year since the Caps acquired him, and while he’s one of my favorites on the team right now a huge part of me wanted to see him traded to a true contender because he is awesome. He doesn’t deserve to be stuck on the sinking ship in Washington while he’s still this good.
Fantastic video and I can't imagine the amount of work that goes into this. I would love to see a similar video about defensive defensemen but you clearly know your stuff so make whatever the heck you want.
Something that fascinates me is just how underrated Dowd is, and how Edmonton ALMOST got Malenstyn as well this trade deadline. Seriously, this 4th line is one of the best in hockey. I remember when it was the MC2 line with Martin-Clutterbuck-Cizikas 😅
unreal stuff as always. would you ever consider doing a video about the CBJ sweep of the Lightning? The drama of that season for CBJ with all the stars leaving on top of years of being ~not excellent~ vs. the Lightning being greeted at the beginning of a great career - sounds like a good time to me
I remember when Gaustad was with the Sabres. My grandfather couldn't believe that Nashville gave up a 1st round pick to get him for their playoff runs.
I agree! Unfortunately, as mentioned elsewhere, those are the kinds of plays that are a) easy to miss, and b) not made available in highlights or in general. I went through all of my gameday open thread comments on Capitals blogs and forums, looking for times when I noticed great defensive plays by Dowd. Unfortunately, almost no footage of them exists anywhere I could find. Most all of the time, the plays could be chalked up to one of winning a faceoff smooth as butter back to the D-man who initiated a breakout, lightning-quick reflexes to break up a pass or interfere with possession, or something along the lines of a skill play (batting the puck, no-look pass, etc.) to maintain possession under pressure. It's hard to accurately describe them in aggregate though because good defensive plays are so diverse in nature. The easiest place to find defensive plays by Dowd (while not 5v5) is on the penalty kill. But even that isn't a great substitute since the context is so different.
What are the odds that the Buffalo Sabres watched this video and IMMEDIATELY signed Aube-Kubel and traded for Malenstyn... Perhaps they see Ryan Mcleod as the next Nic Dowd?
I’ve always been intrigued by the defensive zone starts stat. Wouldn’t it be more of an indication of what the coach thinks of a player’s defence (and face off skills) relative to his teammates than actual defensive ability? It would also tend to favour players whose coach’s philosophy prefers going back to the same players for defensive zone starts. Dowd is a very good defender, but do we truly believe that three of the NHL’s bets defensive forwards are on the same team? And that that team is the Washington Capitals?
@pinholesGraham really liked the video and kind of off topic but what do you use to animate around 3:40 and does it only work for sports related content was just looking to do a documentary on my uncle and liked that style for a part, thanks
I used Google Earth! I followed this instructional video: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-MfM7cqOlgds.html Have fun making your doc! Let me know when it's finished!
If im a gm or coach, im hiring you right away. If you came up with this idea for fun, i would think you have more ideas in the bank that show lesser name players like nic dowd's true worth (which in lehmans terms, he makes ovechkin more efficient in the other end) Also if i were a gm, id be trying to get nic dowd on my team for cheap
If nic dowd truly is the most defensive forward, he would have been nominated for the Selke trophy, in which case i jave never seen happen before so its not all about stats, its about what happens in the game in reality, so right now since Bergeron retired, the best guy for the selke is Aleksander Barkov in my mind and is the only guy outside Bobrovsky I truly like on florida as a bruins fan.
like in all sports. DEFENCE is the most underrated aspect of the game. As a caps fan I remember the amazing defensive plays of guys like Jay Beagle during our cup run.
You just sung a song directly to the hearts of Caps fans. We love love love Nic Dowd, and watching his line was one of the highlights we would always look forward to throughout the season. And the utter dominance of the Beck-Dowd-NAK line was probably the strongest storyline of the year. I would always get a smile on my face watching them hop out onto the ice. My friend and I refer to ourselves as captains of the fourth line fan club, we loved the Dowd Line 1.0 with Hagelin and Hathaway, and the Dowd Line 2.0 with Beck and NAK was simply a delight, even though they got terrible assignments every single time. And Carbs put SO much trust in them. Obviously we know Dowd is the best at his job, but I was really impressed with way Beck blossomed into the role especially since this was his first year as a full-time NHLer. [Beck is absolutely Carbs’ favorite, btw. He’s played the most games under Carbs out of everyone he’s ever coached, took on that tough 4th line role, was always the first one thrown out there on the PK, and there were even games this year when he played like 20+ minutes and led the forwards in ice time lol it was comical.] I’ve screamed about all the things you said in this video so much throughout the year, Dowd deserves so so so much credit for what he does. A part of this is he’s so good at specifically shutting down star players on the other team, he’s really good at doing this against Crosby, MacKinnon, and McDavid especially. There’s no way he doesn’t annoy the shit out of Crosby given how good he is at winning faceoffs against him and shutting him down. I went on a bit of a rant here but I just love Dowd and the fourth line so so much and I want to sing their praises always, and I’m so glad you did so in this video. And given the Judge Judy reference in your credits you’re clearly In The Know 😉, so you know how important and incredibly valuable Nic Dowd is
THANK YOU for posting this. We caps fan have been so proud of dowders for a while and felt he didn't get enough credit. Also only the 3rd Alabama born player in NHL.
As a Sabres fan, this video made me feel a lot better about signing Aube-Kubel and Malenstyn this offseason! Great video with actual analysis, you have a new subscriber!
I gotta say these are the some of the most enjoyable and thoroughest sports mini-documentaries I’ve seen on YT. Very @jonbois reminiscent. Thanks for the amazing content.
Man...great video. Came here from Hockey Psychology and... **SUBSCRIBE** Dowd is one of those guys that you always sort of like, but can't quite figure out why. LOVED this explanation! Well done, sir.
Absolutely fantastic analysis and very interesting video. As someone who likes to look for more unsung players in the NHL, I really appreciate this type of content on top of your in depth series rewinds. There's a lot of mediocre and bad hockey youtubers, but you are definitely not one of them. Keep up the great work!
13:21 i was at this game! i knew how good dowd was as a kings fan before he found his home in washington i just checked who the kings traded him for in 2017 and the answer is jordan subban. 1 for 1. i'm going to pretend i didn't see that.
This is one of the most well done video I’ve watched this yr. I noticed Dowd, Aube-Kubel, & Malenstyn kick the flyers ass in that last game, I knew it was more than just luck. Great Video
Wow this is amazing i’m speechless. i’ve been hockey minded for my whole life, but started really paying attention and watching the game every season since 2019. 2019 really opened my eyes to this sport on how amazing it is. This single video unlocked a whole new perspective i’ve thought of but never this in depth. This is legendary. You are amazing!
Back in 2018, I wasn't happy with the Caps parting way with Beagle and bringing in Dowd, who I've never heard of. But somehow, he turns into a Beagle++, and it might be one of the better deal we made in the past decade, maybe even on the level of that trade to bring in TJ, and leaps and bounds better than trading Kuemper for PLD.
I always wanted to make this video about Phil Danault back when he was with the Habs, but the guy just had to go to LA, break out offensively too in the boxcar stats (funny considered his line always crushed opposition at 5v5) and actually get the recognition he deserved. Oh well.
Dude, your analysis needs to be on Sportsnet or some major broadcaster. I'm so tired of the same surface-level data points and hot takes that this seems like actual solid gold in comparison. Which it is, by the way. Excellent work.
So glad someone is showing nic dowd’s stats for this year. It’s truly impressive and the reason they made the playoffs is solely due to the fourth line being responsible.
I've been saying he's an underrated player ever since he got to Washington! That goal vs NJ was when everyone first saw some of the talent this guy has. He just doesn't do it a lot because his role is to be a reliable defensive presence
This is the kind of analysis people should aspire to and demand in a sport where the "good defence" debate has been dominated by "who blocks the most shots" for eons.