Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
Most people are unable to stand a fall since they are accustomed to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to get around, you can profit handsomely. It depends on your entry and exit strategy.
Tthe US stock market had been on its longest bull rally ever makes the widespread worry and enthusiasm understandable given that we are not used to such unstable markets. As you pointed out, it wasn't tough for me to earn over $780k in the last 10 months, so there are chances if you know where to go. I hired a portfolio advisor since I was aware that I needed a solid and trusted plan to survive these trying times.
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(24 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
in my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
This is actually not comparable to 1980s. It's worse. You forgot to mention that The DTI ratio of a home in 1980 was about three times the average wage. Right now it's 5, 6, even 7 times the average wage now. This alone is the number one reason why this affordability crisis will collapse on a massive scale.
Agreed, but worse then this as today we have 2 earner wages vs 1980 was typically a single earner. When the great mid-2020s housing stall takes full effect we will see extreme pressure on earners and innovation as people will have to weigh the added risk/stress of keeping a "roof over the heads" vs the ability to get out of a job they hate (mental and marital health), raise a family (home school, stay at home parenting) start their own business (entrepreneur). The quick and easy solution is the real estate industry to do its job and educate the sellers where the housing prices should be. The current market is totally artificial, full stop.
It won't collapse. We will just enter a feudalism type market as some governments collapse and corporations all switch to a monarch or dictatorship. War Lords will always become popular in some areas as we all fight amongst each other for who owns what.
@@michaelsd284 Adding that second earner was "the way" that Boomers "solved" the unaffordability/inflation crisis of the early 80's. But how will today's generations resolve the current unaffordability crisis? There's no third earner on the bench, so I see an inevitable date with crash in the future personally. It's either that or inflation and malaise for many years until everything rebalances.
@@natalya7356 Sure, but going from just needing one earner to two was a huge decrease in the American quality of life. Now, being forced into adopting multigenerational housing is another big step down. It's just one more step on the road to a new feudalism, and sadly that has happened to every single free society in all of History. At least the French got creative when it happened to them.
Dude you better be right if you're going to make videos implying people should buy homes at a time of the worst affordability. You're FOMOing people in on something that could ruin their financial lives.
What this is missing is that in the 80s people could save enough to buy a house without a mortgage because of the low prices, now you MUST take a loan.
100% agree. Also $68,000 for home back then is overly generous, at least for the majority of the intermountain west. Median homes were around $45,000. Also there was typically just 1 income per family back then.
@@fedupfaces that is simply not true. People are not significantly different than before, they save as much as they can, just the context has changed. Even assuming parity of disposable income (which is still wrong), while before you could buy a house by saving roughly 5 years, now it would take you 20 of saving to buy the same house. Even if you start saving hard when you are 20, you would be able to afford buying a house in cash when you are 40. Lets not forget that if the house prices keep the trend of the last few decades, unless you are in the 1%, you would never be able to save enough to buy house in many places.
What amazes me is that so many people don't understand where our country is financially and on a world stage.. Mr Taggart is very conservative, yet he's ringing alarm bells. Most people I've talked to feel something on a world stage that's so devastating will happen before November this year. The banks run on lending money... which is a major slow down. Real-estate and construction are on a serious decline nationally. Are debt level is climbing wherein in 3 years are interest will be more than our total revenue annually. Right now in the first time in history the feds cannot bail us out in any major emergency without serious inflation. This all spells a reset which none of us know..... I would buy Bitcoin and buy hard assets like gold /silver as a store of value while also actively trading.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Kerrie Farrell, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape....
Investing with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investors, as most failures and losses in investment usually happen when you invest without proper guidance. I'm speaking from experience...
WTF are they talking about? 1982 was not the "best time to buy". There were negative real returns 5 years later. These are houses, not stocks. This "real" return doesn't account for the fact that at a mortgage rate of 15-18%, debt is compounding at a rate FASTER than the real return. It is abundantly clear that the worst times to buy were 1980-1982, 2004-2007 roughly speaking. We are just waiting to see how 2022-2024 will pan out.
@@v-2010 that is the real return if you buy in cash. Not really a useful data point to anyone but an all cash investor. Nominal returns were about 7.5 % in this 5 year period, where financing costs were 16%. Buyers would have needed close to 50% down, or an aggressive principal repayment strategy to get a positive return in this period.
Median home prices were $47,200 in 1980. In the intermountain west even lower, and now it is ~$500,000. I can say with confidence that it is much worse now than in 1980, at least in the west.
The housing crash won't happen until the broader economic crash happens. High unemployment will force abandonment of all of those low rate mortgages, either through foreclosure or panic selling.
Exactly. I know plenty of young families buying these 500k plus homes because they can afford it BUT if someone loses their job they’re done. High CC debt, large vehicle loans and mortgages. People will not be able to sustain their debts.
What a crazy statement to make to end the video on. Definitely should’ve hashed that out a wee bit more. in both of those eras, you didn’t have corporations and foreign entities buying properties like they are now and we were building a lot more back then, it is a nightmare now, regulation and cost wise, to build new housing developments of any kind. We need to stop the immigration floodgates. In my city, there are Ukrainian real estate agents selling to Ukrainian buyers. These fools are coming over here with money and then getting free money from the government and saving it for down payments easily. They all have 3 to 5 kids. Aka 3 to 5 grand a month cash money. Them and everyone coming through Mexico are also keeping the rents competitively high. We need to also stop foreign buyers who aren’t even coming over here and just let properties sit empty and accrue value. Also need to stop corporations from buying too. If we don’t take care of all 3 of those asap USA will continue its speed run to becoming the world’s toilet
Ok. So in 1980 the median home price of $68000 which was 3× the median income of $22000. Now the median home price is about 6× median income. So your analysis is way off.
@@MHFIN If anything, it just proves that houses are overpriced. Interest rates are not the problem now or then. A person could work and live with their parents for 3 years and then pay cash for a house. That could never happen today.
@@user-oh6ox9hz9c Financing is now the only feasible way to buy a home and even then it requires a ridiculous amount of saving. I don’t make a ton of money but I took my income from last year and multiplied it by 10 and I can buy either a condo, mobile home, or a small house in a meh city near my meh job ONLY IF prices remain where they are (or drop) AND I have to save more than 50% of my income…. Oh and that’s before closing costs so realistically I could put a hefty chunk down after 10 years of living with mom and dad but I would still need to finance my trailer/condo still need to pay lot fees or HOA fees, still need to pay property taxes, still need to pay insurance, repairs, buy food, wifi (essential for job), phone bill (also essential), groceries, electric, gas, water, suddenly I can’t even afford to live on my own even after saving $195,000 for the home. That’s odd, well maybe I can just do a side hustle like my governors suggest. Now I can work 15 hours a day and come home to enjoy my bed. Like a good little slave TL;DR The American Dream Is DEAD and Gen Z will be nothing more than a slave population that uses the grindset to scrape by unless the government does something (they won’t)
In 1980, buying produced a negative 2% 5 year real return, but if one bought in 1985 they had a 4% positive real return rate. Buying in 1990 produced a negative real return of negative 2% after 5 years. How is this possible one might wonder? Because we are looking at inflation adjusted returns and we are looking at a rolling 5 year period. It is confusing if listeners dont think about it carefully. Regardless, that he did correctly read the chart, I think he mistakenly drew conclusions. The biggest issue is that affordability is a multi-factor indicator and is not a "leading" indicator an investor should use for decision making. It is only interesting in retrospect. High un-affordability AND peak interest rates are hallmarks of the end of a housing bear market, but we won't know when we've reached peak interest rates until years after the fact.
This dude is trying to fool all of you the 10 year yield is still inverted and it’s only happened 3 times in history that it’s been inverted this long and those times are 1929,1974, and 2008
Bring it!! I bought my home in 2006 for way too much and watched everyone I know walk away from their mortgages in 2008 and 2009 and they all questioned why I stuck around. I am now setting in a home which is now approaching 18 years old with a mortgage @ $1,100 and even if I loose 1/2 the equity in my homes price now still puts me $90,000 positive equity over the remaining balance on the mortgage.
@@VoyageSpectra The housing market has been irrational for decades, one might even say for generations. Homes may not be "affordable" in our lifetime. I am guessing you will never own a home.
@@cabot100 if Housing prices continue to climb, it seems likely that 90% of Americans will be priced out of homeownership. The best approach is to manage your finances wisely and position yourself to take action when opportunities arise. Not fomo in because of ifs and buts
@@VoyageSpectra The real estate market is well beyond fomo. The powers that be through their "wisdom" created this; it is certainly not sustainable. Historical data shows a significant portion of the population of the United States have not been homeowners. The diminished value of the dollar, inflation and other factors have not helped. Historical data indicates that the housing market is cyclical, many would agree that we are "overdue" a correction of some sort. Looking at the current economic issues, it is reasonable to believe prices will come down, at least in many local markets. If people are unemployed/underemployed and the costs of living continue to be highly inflationary and there is a high degree of uncertainty many people will still not buy a house, even if housing prices come down a fair amount. Certainly there are people like yourself with a lot of money and a lot of equity available to purchase real estate for all cash or some may opt to buy highly leveraged, depending on their circumstances and objectives. As we are seeing with CRE some housing will not be desirable, except perhaps at bargain prices. History shows that some will take advantage of opportunities should the economy crash.
The problem is, people think they need a 2500 plus square foot home, for two people. I grew up in a little four room house. It originally was a two room. People didn’t go out and buy a bigger house, back then. They just added on to the old house. Sure it’s nice to own a big place. But you have to heat it, cool it and upkeep and pay taxes on it. Let’s scale back people. You just need a place to lay your head. By the way. We had 8 people living in that house.
It's not that it was the best time to buy at the peek - it's that you don't have the ability to access the leverage to secure the loan amount for the house you want.
Nobody voted for the federal reserve and mass currency debasement. Trump was in office during the largest wealth transfer from the poor to wealthy in history. Things are definitely worse with the Biden admin and Yellen's uncapped spending but there is no escape at this point from the monetary spiral.
Right now, may 2024, is one of the worst times to buy a house. Cant sell either because we need a place to live. Anyone that has multiple homes is 100% contributing to the housing bubble. SHAME 🤠
In 1981, homes sold with assumable mortgages and seller carried a second. Hardly anyone used a lender. You cannot compare that market. I sold real estate then and bought. Much much more affordable.
The biggest issue here is pricing. The crazy jumps during Covid need to come back down. Realtors keep saying rates need to come down because they want to see the higher profits for agents by having lower rates. Not the correction in pricing.
@@geocam2 even if you completely take out insurance costs. The prices of homes since Covid and the delivery policy of free money and not making people pay the bills they caused. Price of homes didn’t go up because insurance. The price of principal and interest alone went up.
@@geocam2 taxes and insurance are mostly based on your home’s value. If the value of your home doubles in 5 years (like it has), then the taxes and insurance will also double (like it has). Pretty simple to understand.
hoping for huge price drops is completely dreaming. Rates have been high for a long time now, people have been getting laid off for years and prices are not coming down. It's more likely that the rates will drop than the prices significantly drop, So don't plan on seeing that.
For me afforadbility is the metric ill use. Ill work on increasing my income and my net assets until a home is just some thing i need to have to go further
One of the obvious elements missing from the discussion is supply. And not just the amount for sale but the total number of houses in desirable locations vs the population. From the creation of the highways up until today we’ve had 70 years to build on essentially cheap land. We’ve run out of land and now have to start building more dense multi family. Does anyone really think we’ll be able to build single family homes within a short drive of our downtowns forever? In 1980 we had 225M people and now we’re over 333M people. The Millenial generation is bigger than the baby boomer generation. It will be a while before we get to a flat population (if ever due to immigration) Take a look at Australia. They have huge housing problems because they can’t build housing fast enough.
This doesn’t make much sense to me, if no one is buying houses because they can’t afford it…. then there’s no mortgage crash. I know I’m not an expert but explain why I’m wrong
The real estate market, especially here in Florida, is absolutely stupid and ridiculous. Just in taxes and insurance, because now insurance is ridiculous in Florida, you are going to pay about $1,000 a month just for taxes and insurance. Thank God I was able to pay my house off. And I'm self-insuring
More like ... Buy in the bubble and find your property decline in value 10-15% if not way more. A good Ballance was high property costs at a low interest. ( Ideal - low cost property low interest) But that's in a pink world. When prices are high and interest too where's the beneficial aspect for us. In other words that's why we are stuck. And don't say people are not selling houses ... Plenty properties stays on websites for months keep chipping down few % until someone bites it. People are selling but we don't buy the worst offers both house price and interest. Let all Regional Banks start to blow up soon and we can rethink once the bigger sharks have to much portfolio they'll be forced to adjust interests so they can sell.
The PRICE of any Product or Service comes down to the basic fundamental equation of Economics, SUPPLY & DEMAND. As long as there is a shortage of Housing Supply and steady Demand, the Prices will not DROP. The Prices might drop in one or two location specific Markets, but overall, the Prices will not drop significantly. Either the Government has to ease regulations and zoning laws, and allow Builders to construct more Housing units and increase the SUPPLY, or the DEMAND has to go down significantly than the current number of Housing Units for sale on the Market. These are the only two indicators that matter in any Market. Everything else is a bunch of hogwash.
Affordability is truly dependant on where you're shopping for a house. I wouldn't shop in California Arizona Florida or Texas and especially not near major cities. These places have prices that are artificially inflated due to Californians selling their property for large sums of money then tanning that and investing somewhere with more conservative taxes and property values. Ohio Kentucky and Tennessee are seeing a big influx of buyer's paying asking with cash. Leaving state residents struggling to find anything affordable because of the economic differences between California's high wages high taxes and their destination states economy is much more "affordable" to them. California’s bad political economical policies are corrupting much of the rest of the US’s housing market. We’re getting economic areas around the US where certain states the US dollar is less valuable compared to other states meaning you have to spend more dollars to buy the same product than other states. This is a huge problem the US is facing due to essentially interstate migration of US citizens.
Insurance and property taxes are the skyrocketing parameters that are pushing escrow higher and higher in a constant climb making my mortgage payments reaching stupid levels lately. I'm shopping for lower cost insurance, and it is ridiculous to discover that mine is already lower than that I can find to replace it, and there appears to be some conspiring going on here.
So the ceo say's the interest rate will go to 2% but not relief of sky high home prices. I don't think that is what has to happen. Prices have to come down, there are only so many cash buyers.
I don't know if there is going to be another housing crash and I would note that economies rarely repeat the previous blow up conditions. Having said you're use of the housing "Affordability Price Index" and the comparison period of the early 80s as justification for your hypothesis has one serious and obvious problem. In the early 80s interest rates were about to begin a secular decline that lasted until ~2021. I would suspect that the biggest element of expense is that index was interest expense that was reduced via refinancing. In effect Paul Volker bailed out the early 80s house purchasers. To find an equivalence between that period and now, you should identify the variable (other than price) that is going to make the difference for purchasers. I actually think such a variable exists, but if I'm right things are going to get ugly. That variable is widespread and persistent inflation. But I don't think that this is your hypothesis.
You're right about the long-term decline in interest rates. Back then, they had more flexibility, gradually dropping from 18% to 3% over 35 years. However, it's important to note that interest expenses still significantly impact affordability today. If rates were to drop to around 4%, refinancing would also help alleviate today's expenses.
@@MHFIN7% rates are not high. That's average. It's simple bond math that shows prices will decline. Maybe rates come down a bit but I wouldn't bet the farm on 4% rates in the future. Based on current rates house prices are 30 to 40% over where they should be.
@@MHFINif interest rates dropped to 4% today prices would skyrocket. People yelling affordability are ignoring the obvious. Prices have increased because people CAN pay these prices. Comparing the median value home to the median household income is a fallacy because it assumes a 100% ownership rate. The homeownership rate is usually around 65%. Meaning roughly the bottom 35% of households don’t own so you’re really should be looking at the 85th percentile. Furthermore people equate single family homes to home ownership. When you factor in condos the median value is lower. As cities grow and become more dense it’s impractical to think everyone is going to be able to own a single family house. This is what is being reflected in the low affordability. There will be a smaller and smaller percentage of single family homes relative to the population and those will go to the households with the most means to pay for them.
Remax guy didn't account for the one huge distortion...15 years of sub 5% 30 year fixed rate mortgages. A 3-5% long term mortgage is ultra, ultra, ultra valuable now. So much so that a family would be much better off putting an addition on a house if they want more room than to give up that long term rate. Houses are not going to hit the market for decades to come, unless interest rates drop and that isn't going to happen, the Fed is trapped.
I agree with your overall point but some of the people that are locked at those rates... Their income hasn't increased but their expenses did. All it takes is, death, unemployment, injury... things that regularly happens. Then add to the fact that many are racking up CC debt. Little bit of unemployment, and some foreclosures can flip the mentality and cause panic selling. Many people have their retirement in equity when it starts going down, they will sell to downsize. It's how we got our house in 2009. Person living here was older, kids moved out, she needed to downsize, kids were stretched and her expenses got too much. I'd imagine there will be people on same situation with stagnant inflation.
"that isn't going to happen" Based on what evidence? The Fed is prepping for cuts as we speak. All the fake jobs/manufacturing/GDP/CPI numbers can't even hold up the illusion anymore, oil supply constraints managed to keep inflation flat in the short term but that's long term deflationary. It's either turn the printer back on or allow banks and the entire global monetary system to collapse. We know which one they choose every time. They'd rather silently siphon $$$ from the tax chattel (you and I) than let the banks fail and have all us unemployed rioting in the streets.
@@AlenAbdulathere will always be people with life circumstances that force people to sell. However that doesn’t change that the vast majority won’t. It’s the large number of people that move a market.
@@cjenkins79 you're correct in short term, if this inflation persists many will be forced, last downturn took 3 years to play out in housing. Started 07 but didn't hit lowest til 09-10. Many are "house poor"... tax, insurance, utilities goes up, and they'll be on the edge, add unemployment (lag)... and you got correction, how big idk.
Can you do a whole video about the stuff you threw in at the end? I don’t quite understand that. The part about how when it was most unaffordable was actually the best time to buy.
Even worse than that...he uses crash for clickbaiting, says how likely crashing should be, then says its not going to crash at the end. Its like a hedge that no matter what, he can say "as I pointed out..." Weak sauce.
Isn’t the peak of 5 years return means if people buy five years before? Which means that the person who buy the real estate 5 years before the Bubble will get the highest return?
People cannot afford to maintain a house if it were given to them, because insurance and HOA fees would eat them alive. Even when the government helped people who didn't qualify for houses to get one, only to watch most of them fail to pay their loans.
SCREECH!!!!🛑 I don’t care what any one says if you can’t comfortably afford your mortgage payment by having it not exceed 30% of your take home pay. DO NOT BUY A HOUSE RIGHT NOW!!!! Don’t buy out of fear that the situation will get worse. It can’t really get any worse that it is right now. If it does no one will be buying houses PERIOD
I miss the post Pandemic Mortgage rates, those were good times ! The market correction has been massive and with the impending recession it seems like things are only going to get worse.
what about the national debt ? interest on the national debt ? guy at remax is delusional . oh we are near the bottom and about to rebound ? how so ? rebound to what ?
this is getting out of hand - you're aiming for clicks and views and providing advice that may cause people real-life issues (not just speculative guesses)
You gotta be stupid to think that it was worse then compared to now. I dont want to have to do the numbers but i will if i need to. Also consider rent cost was a similar cost to buying back then so more incentive to buy. To keep it simple, back then it was 30% of their wage, today its well over 50%
idk about your city, but everywhere I have looked, the volume of homes on sale is pretty high, at least much higher than the last 2-3 years. so I think homes are already coming down in price, but it is still going into the summer sales peak, so we won't know for sure just how low the sales are this year.
High than 2-3 years is relative. Most markets are up 30% over the last few years. However they are still down 40% from pre pandemic levels. It’s like gas spiking from $3 to $6 because of a hurricane. If it drops for $6 to $4 it’s still $1 more than before the hurricane.
the solution, cheaper, efficient, easy to build, content buyers, making products and services in the USA. The interest rate will remain keeping buyers and sellers honest while we all get a better deal with a better house or construction type. issue , greed.
So much wrong in this analysis. What a joke. If you buy at 18 percent interest and have a 4 percent real return you are completely losing your ass. Of course housing will go up after a spike in interest rates at 18 percent and the inevitable decline. The real return I imagine accounts for inflation, but this situation only helps cash buyers. And you could buy US treasuries during that time and do very well for yourself. High internet environments are good times to buy assets, especially if you fell like interest rates will come down. 07 the realists if buying at unaffordable times is much more evident of what you can expect to happen. 81 on a 10 year scale Doran not look so good, even with the falling interest rate ebnironment.
the buest time to buy is when its the most unaffordable?? poppycock!!...lets go buy a 130K f150 at 8 per cent interest- the best time to buy is when its most unaffordable!!! pleeeease.
investors are shedding their portfolios as we speak. In a housing crunch they lose the most. They don't buy in until the dip is well past and confirmed and we are back into the up cycle. If you can keep your job and some savings this is good news. The investors that leveraged to the tits to speculate are punished the most. Some big players will get daddy government to forcefully confiscate your labor to bail them out but market corrections exist to rebalance the avarice in the market
This is silliness. Investors are buying risk free treasuries and inventory is piling up. Why take risks with tenants when you can get more from Tbills?
LMAO 🤣😂. Housing will not crash when there's still no supply and people are not filing foreclosure in record numbers. Most have an excellent mortgage rate. So no housing bubble. Yes prices will come down some but absolutely no crash. Gotta love the doomsayers
I bought a new home in 1980 for $56,000! My interest rate was 18%. That home is for sale today for $650,000! Why would anyone buy it now for $650,000??? Lots of dumbasses out there!!!
Here's the two biggest differences between the unaffordability problem of today and that of the early 80's (although there are many more). 1. The Boomers were legitimately coming of age, and as such they were legitimately making the US economy a powerhouse of productivity. In other words, demographics were extremely favorable. Today, those same boomers are aging out, while Millennials are debt-burdened like no other generation, so US demographics are now UN-favorable (much more similar to Japan of the 90s-2000s). 2. In the late 70's/early 80's, women were still entering the workforce in greater and greater numbers. By "putting the wife to work", Boomers were able to cope with and absorb the higher cost of housing without a crash (in fact, there's a lot of chicken/egg debate to be had there, but it upsets many). Either way, what similar inflation-escape-valve exists today??? Everyone in the household is already pitching in. Maybe Timmy and Suzie can get part times so that these exorbitant mortgages can continue to be paid?
