The Biggest US Trading Partner Is No Longer China! 

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But if you look at the year by year graph of Mexico’s import from China… it’s almost as if Chinese goods were repackaged in Mexico before heading off to the intended buyer.

growing up on a ranch in California we had many Mexicans work for us over the years and they are honest, hardworking reliable people from my experience

"Essential industries like crypto mining.." Good one Pat! 😂😂😂

Mexico has been the USA's biggest trade partner for a while now. We just haven't been counting illegitimate businesses 😂

Look behind the trade numbers. China's trade with US has indeed come down; but China's trade with Vietnam and Mexico has shot up correspondingly. What is happening is that Vietnam and Mexico are acting as middlemen - importing huge amount from China, slapped on the "Made in Vietnam" and "Made in Mexico" labels, and re-export them to the US. So, the US ends up with Chinese products that are relabelled and pays a premium in the process. Clever.

US is buying lots more from ASEAN (South East Asia countries like Vietnam and Indonesia etc). Many of those goods are actually by Chinese manufacturers who have set up transshipment outposts there. That's why trade between ASEAN and China has soared.

Once again you provide insights into current issues that I have not seen elsewhere. I have read or watch alot about Mexico economy benefiting from near shoring, but you are the first one to point out potential problems such as reliable electricity, water availability, and President Obrador. So once again, a thumbs up and thank you from me.

As a American who loves Mexico I would love nothing more for us to be trading partners

In order to stay afloat in this current market, it is vital to have a financial plan. I work with a portfolio manager and fixed income planner in the USA. The fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion, but will provide legitimate income.

One thing these videos rarely mention--Mexico already manufactures a lot and most of it is not from Chinese companies but European (particularly German and French), Japanese, and American companies. European and American companies have invested in Mexican manufacturing for over 70 years. At first to manufacture for the domestic market. But after the 1980s, and especially after NAFTA, more investment was made to manufacture for exporting. And it hasn't looked back. Mexico is the ONLY country in Latin America whose GDP is primarily composed of manufacturing instead of commodities. Even over the larger economy of Brazil. So it's not just repackaged products from China--Chinese companies in Mexico are less than 10% of multinational presence manufacturing in Mexico. About water--the city he cited suffering drought, the local government s now building an aqueduct from a large nearby lake that will ensure stable supply. Mexico is also the country in Latin America with the largest number of public works projects under construction with over 200 nationally. So it's been improving port, road, railroad, and airport infrastructure. The top half of Mexico already has a lot of infrastructure in terms of interstate highways. The south less, but it's improved. In fact comparing the Mexican port he cited to Los Angeles/Long Beach is a bit unfair, as Los Angeles/Long Beach is not just the largest and busiest port complex in the U.S., but the largest and busiest in the western hemisphere including the rest of North America and Europe (yes busier than Rotterdam). For comparison it's the largest and busiest port outside of East Asia which has the busiest ports in the world. Mexico also already has the largest number of engineering graduates in the Americas. Mexico is simply well positioned to become a larger exporter given the number of free trade agreements it has. And it's large young labor force still guarantees large productivity increases for years. Given its proximity to the U.S. it's simply a given Mexico will further manufacture for the U.S. and other countries. The 2023 figures for foreign direct investment to Mexico are not finalized but it already looks like it is record setting given the announcement of so many companies opening new facilities there. Keep in mind Mexico already manufactures more vehicles than the UK, France, and Spain (and EV manufacturing coming online in 2023). And may have already surpassed Italy as well as perhaps even Germany in 2023. In the last 20 years Mexico has become about a top 5 vehicle manufacturer globally. It also is a top electronics manufacturer and increasingly aerospace and biotech. Its economy has been doing better than most around the world (its currency the peso too). In fact of the OECD member of developed and industrialized countries, it had one of the highest GDP growth rates in 2022, 2023, and likely 2024. It's fluctuated between 3-5%. In the last quarter of 2022 it grew at near the same rate as China--China. In 2023, while some major G7 developed countries (particularly in Europe) have seen their economies shrinking, Mexico will be among the top OECD and G20 member countries to have seen the most GDP growth. 2024 looks to be the same.

“Essential industries like crypto mining”. I love it

"Mexico has the strongest performing currency so far this year." AWESOME. Or as we should be saying, ASOMBROSO.

Patrick. I keep forgetting about you. But every once in a while I'm reminded: you are one of the most astute macroeconomic analysts on YT - if not the most. Virtually no one is able to add "context" to data or information like you do. Thank you....

Maybe it’s finance vs engineering but when Mexican share of exports goes from 12 to 15 points, that’s a 25% increase. Not 3%. That’s a huge change for MX Love your content and your jacket.

Hope these changes help Mexico to overcome their problems and offer their people a much better life.

That is tremendous news. A stronger, richer Mexico would be great news for America.

You're absolutely brilliant Patrick. I love the spot on insights you deliver, post after post.

If this trend continues this might be the start of something bigger changes than anyone expects

Mexico is getting there with their infrastructure. Mexico isn’t only in a good geopolitical zone but, also fast transportation and soon Naval Canal transportation for both Pacific Ocean and Mexico Golf ocean…

I follow and love your videos. sadly, it's been a while since i visited it has been a very rough year... i am experiencing one of the toughest phases of my life... Lost a fortune lnvesting in emerging companies. Hopeful, for a turnaround.

There's another important connection between water supply and electricity. Most methods of power generation use a lot of fresh water. It's one of the major overall uses of fresh water, usually second behind only agriculture (albeit a rather distant second.)

As a Mexico-based company... we happy :)

Loving the reshoring of industries to the Americas. We truly can just be all on our own in this hemisphere - and get those Mexicanos some agua !

Did you check the trade between China and Mexico? It rose tremendously. It’s true that in the long run, more manufacturing will be done in Mexico, however, Mexico is simply rebranding china goods and send them to the US.

After hiring, firing, and rubbing shoulders with many brilliant engineers in the Midwest manufacturing community I can say that these men (and some women) tend to be cautious and conservative people. They are the ones who are refusing to go and help build manufacturing muscle into a country that overtly calls us their enemy. These talented people's mates consider visiting an ever increasingly oppressive and dangerous place to be unwise while the thought of helping them to ultimately thrive and steal their markets is not beneficial to the safety of their children and grandchildren.

"essential industries like crypto mining" Sentences like that truly are just *chefs kiss* 13:00

"essential industries like crypto-mining" - ouch

Mexico reminds me of post-Franco 1980's Spain. Incredible industrial growth then.

This looks like what we had before trade with China began. When most of our appliances moved offshore they were made in Mexico. 🇨🇦

One point about "ports". Mexico really doesn't have ANY world class port options. However, they can do something China, Japan, Korea, etc cannot do... they can DRIVE TO THE USA! It's hard to overstate the value of low transport costs for Mexico. The US is large enough to consume just about everything they make for decades while they build up their own port options. And of course, there is NOTHING stopping them from driving Mexican goods to San Diego or Houston and shipping anything they want from a US port.

Regarding infrastructure and geography, Mexico is of course closer to the USA which helps in itself, but another thing that surprisingly many economists seem to underestimate is the amount of coastline and cities close to the coastline Mexico has and the value of that. The latter is true also for India, Vietnam, indonesia and some others. It true that China has invested a lot into infrastructure. However China also has to transport it goods further than most of it's competitors. That is a bigger disadvantage, I would argue than many realize.

Bit weird Mexico didn't become the biggest trading partner of US to begin with. Usually the most important trading partners of countries are their neighbours.

Every bad thing mentioned about Mexico in 2023 would have been the same thing businessmen would have said about China in 1983.

Who knew that threatening people with violence would make them stop buying your stuff.

Patrick is one of the best news source, and backs it up with detailed explanations.

Mexico’s President: “I’ll show you”. Stabs country in foot.

Selling components for products does not have the value add that selling the whole product would. We've basically locked them into the bottom of the value chain which means they can still produce many things but they do not receive the revenue.

The U.S. should have always focused on trade deals with countries in the Western Hemisphere. Why ship across the largest ocean in the world when you can ship from Mexico southward.

Super informative and entertaining! I've been following you for a while now and really like this simple no frills way of presenting the information and your dry humour 😂 Thanks for all your hardwork

I swore to dispose all products Made In China, so all electronic stuff like PCs, modems, printers and flash disks had to go. Then all electrical stuff like TVs, freezers, washing machines were thrown out. Today, I found that the insulation, roofing, carpets, blankets, sidings, tiles, wires, nails and screws were all Made In China. What else can I throw into the dumpster ?

Way to go Mexico!

Your dig at Crypto is spot on, it is an absolute insane waste.

This count down is intense.

About time we do everything again with Mexico and Canada. Ludricous to have our industry miles away next to 2enemy countries, and inside 1. Glad everyhting is coming back home "Canad1, US Mexico". North America, assemble!

I mean Mexico doesn't need many ports and long railroads. The factories are all along the US border. China will certainly still produce, but it will have a lot of competition. Other places are cheaper, are democracies, and don't steal property. I mean every problem that exists with Mexico exists in one way or another in China as well.

CCP bots have raided the comment section lol

If Mexico did become America's primary manufacturer, some big potential side effects would be immigration reduction from the south and potentially a decline in American population. These could have cascading longer term impacts.

Thank you for the video and mentioning the EXTREME waste of crypto mining. Most people will have no idea how much power is wasted there but picture that the most essential resource water (yes not oil) takes the same amount energy 😢

Good. Keeping Mexico and supporting our North America continent is good. It should have been like this from the very beginning.

Patrick, I have the attention span of a Michigan Gray Squirrel with anxiety issues and have little understanding of the most basic theories of economics however I found your explanations fascinating. Thank you for the presentation, the subject matter, and this channel. I am not sure how I arrived here but I am glad that I did.

Great insights and analysis Patrick, you're both informative and entertaining! A question: Doesn't the US have to run continual trade deficients in order to supply the world with its reserve currency? Isn't re-shore/friend-shore production self-defeating? Smaller trade deficits->fewer USD available->stronger USD->cheaper imports for US consumers/less competitive exports? As your friend How Money Works put it, "part-time hedge fund manager and full-time RU-vid comedian Patrick Boyle" 🤣

im in the ecological sciences by profession and never studied much economics in school, so I always learn something new about economics from these videos. one thing that keeps making me a little upset is the persistent theme that companies just put production wherever labor is cheapest. Makes me wonder if there's such a thing as a world where everyone earns a good living wage and we don't need cheap labor to support wealthy nations

The final conclusion is important. There will always be a nation which keep wages low in order to compete for foreign investment. And since a manufactoring company makes it's own decisions to maximise profits free-trade will remain a nice theory.

But Chinese companies have set up factories in Mexico. Made in Mexico is probably the same as made in china. Same made in Vietnam and other southeast Asian countries.

I'm not a finance guy, I barely understand any of this, but I have a few questions. Wouldn't relocating manufacturing to Mexico cause increase in cost of good and hence cost of product? The idea of manufacturing in self sufficient countries in terms of resources, is that cost of goods is lower. Not to mention how close is China to the destinations that buy goods. Another question about the import versus export thing mentioned in the video, Should countries have import and export equally balanced? Keeping wages down in the face of inflation is difficult to imagine when the government gets its securities and bonds and not invest in its population. I can't wrap my head around this.

The thumbnail is a real thing of beauty. Whoever made it is amazing and deserves a raise if he isn't Patrick himself

Fantastic analysis and discussion into complex global economic trends. Thanks! Keep up the fabulous work!

This could end up helping not just the US, but the entire continent. Canada and US manufacturers will have access to closer markets decreasing fuel costs, and as Mexico increases their income they will in turn be able to afford more goods from the South America and smaller amounts of high end manufacturing products from the US. The biggest issue is gonna be the cartels.

That’s some good news as China should not be too dependent on the US market as it has become unstable & a less reliable trading country. This dependency had caused Japan’s economy to suffer tremendously since the nineties when the U.S. had indirectly betrayed Japan’s reliance on the U.S. market. China must stay away from such mishaps and diversify its market more globally & expand its BRI projects more readily for developing economies. China can’t afford to have all the eggs in one basket , it’s necessary to look beyond the U.S..

Transport in Mexico is truck direct to the USA factory, you cant beat that using a ship

Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.

I'm studying for the CFA exams (I'm a candidate), and while studying and analyzing my economy (Mexico), I find a lot of weaknesses in the financial systems. I believe that a stronger securities market and government institutions would help boost the economy, and in my opinion, we need more finance professionals here, so the benefits of doing legal, high amounts of profit through efficient asset allocations, would outperform the people's need to take another paths to become wealthy. I really hope we don't miss this opportunity, it's our chance to stand out and become stronger than ever!

Perhaps this burgeoning trade relationship will cause both Mexico and the US to actually address the drug trade and the cartels in a serious way. In addition, lets not forget the immigration problem that Mexico is squarely in the middle of (although the illegal migration problem is not Mexican citizens). I think the trade relationship between the US and Mexico is already being significantly affected/limited by these problems..neither of which you mentioned directly (you indirectly mentioned these with a comment on Mexico's crime rate). The US inability to address its demand for illegal narcotics is ongoing (and not improving....Illegal drugs are expected to be one of the biggest threats to national security in 2024 as overdose deaths topped 100,000 in the last year, according to the Department of Homeland Security's annual threat study) and the problem impacts Mexico and Mexican-American relations in a number of areas. Just sayin'

China now has a 14.6% share of US imports from 21.6% in 2017. At this pace it could be 7% in 2030 which would be good for the US.

including narcotics, Mexico is by far the USA largest trade partner.

As someone from Monterrey, I actually can say this is a really good video.

Should have been like this all along.

"Mexico's share only increased from 13.4% to 15.0% or by 1.6%." No, by 11.9%. Or 1.6 percentage point.

Fantastic news!

Come on guys. Isn't it obvious? China simply ship their products to Mexico and re-package it for US market. Just think through it ... what is the Mexico have in term of manufacturing eco-system that could sustain "being the biggest trading partner" with US? Same for Vietnam. They basically package Chinese products and ship to US. The trucks cross the China and Vietnam border carrying almost-complete products are outrageously long.

Finally some actual good news for once in the world. Here's hoping man.

The Chinese bots are out in full force on this one, I guess this topic is especailly sensitive for them.

Patric is not live, this is a premiere

Beijing has always been so good in manipulating data & statistics to make it appear as if it is the most robust economy. But in reality, so many foreign investment have pulled out of China. Insufficient market demand & high labor cost makes for a continuing decline on manufacturing. There are 83 ghost cities in the mainland & 68 million empty apartment across the country.

It seems to me that there is no one single nation state that can replace China in manufacturing goods. In fact ,it is not fair for any single nation to have that roll. Much better to diversify to as many nations as possible .create as much competition as we can to get going to produce the best products possible.

One of the best aspects of Mexico for manufacturing is its demographics, which should keep labor rates lower long term than pretty much all of the competitors (especially china)

Following this development, Chinese companies are increasingly investing in production in Mexico too

Cheers from México guys. Love this channel. Boyle hit it right in the nail concerning the varios logistical problems México is facing due to this new influx of investing and production. We can only hope they are solved in the next presidential term since the actual president amlo doesnt really care about investment.

If you dont like trade surplus nations, who will we ship our inflation to? If you cant ship your inflation (export USD, hence negative trade balance) when you print money, you will get hyperinflation. Exporting USD and getting relaitively cheap financing is how the US works

What a masterclass explaining globalization and the trade balance in just 3 minutes at the end!

Another great video Patrick, thanks!

I would have to imagine that while the US China trade links still exist with these developments, it will give opportunities for others to undercut china to sever those ties over time whereas maybe that was not as much of an option before.

Mexico's president is squandering a golden opportunity here. Some countries would kill to be in their position. What a shame.

I liked this video because, in general, it explains pragmatically the many nuances that are affecting the US-China and US-Mexico trade and the restrictions that prevent Mexico from moving faster as a manufacturing hub (infrastructure and energy deficiencies are certainly factors, but incomplete supply chains are the main problem). However, the part where the Mexican President is "being blamed for the lackluster performance of the economy" because he is not "business-friendly" is not very well researched in my opinion. When AMLO took over, Mexico was the 15th largest economy. He will leave in months with the Mexican economy as the 12th largest (in six years it surpassed Spain, South Korea, and Australia), and within the next year or 2 years, it may become the 11th largest surpassing Russia. Many countries would accept that type of "lackluster performance". The Mexican economy has grown steadily (in his 6 years the economy grew 20% whereas his predecessor managed a 5% decline). Very important infrastructure projects have been completed: an international airport, a passenger train in southern Mexico, and railroad/highway/port infrastructure improvements of great magnitude in the narrowest part of Mexico to compete with the Panama Canal. Overall, he did these projects with minimum debt. The debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 52 to 56%. This compares quite favorably with other countries like Japan (255%), the USA (123%), and even Germany (66%). Yes, he speaks of a social economy and he has increased subsidies to vulnerable parts of the population and increased the minimum wage by a whopping 110%. But poverty rates decreased from 50% to 44% while the Mexican Peso strengthened against the dollar by 8% while the previous president "achieved" a 50% devaluation. Yes, there are complaints that he is not "business-friendly". But two factors need explaining: 1) He has not increased taxes, has increased debt slightly, and has increased infrastructure and social expenditure significantly. Where does the money come from? (a) tight control of government budgets and (b) he is making large corporations pay taxes. The previous presidents condoned tax payments for many large corporations. 2) He has increased Government participation in the energy sector (electricity and oil). But here, he is wearing the statesman hat. With previous administrations, foreign companies controlled these sectors and this leaves the country vulnerable to foreign pressure (the Mexican economy would grind to a halt if these companies stopped production, -following the orders of the US to exert pressure). Therefore, he has decided that the Mexican state should have control of this critical sector.

Imagine of in the 90s manufacturing was moved to Mexico and the rest of Latin America instead of communist China, imagine how much more stable, prosperous, and culturally cohesive the entire American continent would be.

The thing you find when you own a good engineering factory is you don't actually have to buy so much as a business, e.g. the machines you use, because being a factory, you just build it. I think China as a country thinks like that. If they like a particular thing, they like the idea of building it themselves, and even more so thanks to US sanctions. Chips are a good example. They never really got into chips to begin with, had a few bad failures, so bought a lot from the US, but now there is this buzz in China where they think, hey we can now do this too. They like a challenge.

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Re BMW in Mexico . They have been hit hard with the lack of energy (expense) in Germany , So many German companies are looking to outsource over seas (some of which is also in China, which would i guess be a bad move if relations sour due to Taiwan)

I remember back in 1998-2002 we went thru a shift from US to Mexico - then we moved our production to China. Full circle and now back to Mexico. (Same issues (today) in 2000 in Mexico why we left) . :)

I love the jab at Tesla’s Cybertruck 🤣🤣

Ahh... the show begins.

"essential industries like crypto mining" 😂 love the videos 🤘

Love this guy!

I run a consulting business in the GCC. Our clients are large Chinese companies seeking to relocate their manufacturing assets here. Key drivers are removal of subsidies in China, high labour costs in China and FTA vs tarriffs. We are extremely busy!

Wow this explanation of U.S./China trade relations is excellent.

Good for Mexico

Did you know that many Chinese companies are opening factories in Mexico lately?

The land of sombreros and Miracas sounds like an infinitely better alternative to communist dystopia.

The biggest question is though whether the trade deficit has become smaller or the prices of goods have changed for the better. I think the prices only became higher for Americans in order to participate in this political geopolitical battle.