The Celsius FIASCO...Explained Simply

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👨‍💼Brian Feroldi is an author (amzn.to/3JVr9Q0), investor, RU-vidr, and financial educator. He's been investing in the stock market since 2004. Brian likes to buy and hold the highest quality companies he can find.
👨‍💼Brian Stoffel is a writer, investor, RU-vidr, and financial educator. He's a teacher at heart. Brian has been investing for over a decade and has written over 4,000 articles for The Motley Fool. Brian plans his life and his investments around “antifragile” principles.
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Опубликовано:

16 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 93

@robin212212 11 дней назад

Basically Pepsi overestimated in their Celsius demand forecasts and are now readjusting their inventory to match current and near future demand. Once this normalizes Pepsi's inventory purchases should better reflect consumer demand. This may take a couple of quarters to realize.

@fingerprint1991 12 дней назад

can you please focus the video more on the screen you share vs you ? It is very hard to follow the numbers on the small screen.

@jaeyoungchoi6790 12 дней назад

yeah so difficult to see especially when I'm on my phone

@bpolat 11 дней назад

yes. right.

@shubhamtyagi6779 11 дней назад

Agreed

@stoffelbrian 11 дней назад

Will make this change moving forward. Thanks for the feedback

@eralec 11 дней назад

Ok but easy to zoom in too on your phone

@DRAMz-re7oo 11 дней назад

I work at Pepsi. Celsius sells like crazy. Hard to tell tho if it’s the next big thing or just another flash in the pan as far as energy drinks go. When we started distributing bang there were lots of issues and now no one cares about bang. I think Celsius has a good chance of being pretty big as long as Pepsi continues to be around

@omnimoeish 11 дней назад

Yeah seems like there's always a flavor of the week energy drink that fizzles out. I remember Mountain Dew Kickstarters, right now it's Alani. There's also just massive competition (besides the mainstays like Rock Star, Monster, Red Bull) in the space anyway with 5 hour energy now selling energy drinks (not just the shots), Reign, Bang, C4, Prime, literally dozens more. The stock is finally back to a decent PE ratio around 31 after falling 70%. Certainly interesting if they can get growth back on track but they're competing in one of the most competitive more or less commoditized markets.

@alexng4 9 дней назад

"Celsius sells like crazy.". And so do other energy drinks and none energy drinks that you arent aware of because you only work at Pepsi. It doesnt mean anything..

@DRAMz-re7oo 9 дней назад

@@alexng4 I pretty much know all of them I talk to all the other vendors and kinda know what sales good for them

@alexng4 9 дней назад

@@DRAMz-re7oo yes...toilet papers also sell like crazy everyday....I mean from an investment standpoint, your observation isn't a good data point for investment purposes is my point. Not trying a jerk just saying within context.

@michaelramsey3643 11 дней назад

I see CELH as having far more positives than risks, especially at this price level. Recently opened a small position. Will probably max it out in the 1%-2% range, adding opportunistically if it falls further from here. I think the current market cap is low enough that has the potential to generate very significant gains over 3-5 years, without putting a lot of capital at risk.

@alexng4 11 дней назад

Looks like this is the case of large institution/hedgefund holders sold out their positions with no one jumping in to buy the stock. So it doesnt matter what you think it should be. Just pay attention to the price because it could keep fallen. Fundamentals can still be good but if there's no buyers , it doesnt matter.

@dontplayformenero 11 дней назад

Good fundamentals will always find a buyer... Unless it's a Chinese company in which case fundamentals don't matter haha😂

@michaelramsey3643 11 дней назад

@@dontplayformenero Yep, but sometimes it takes awhile! There's still an abundance of fear in this market (myself included). With growth stocks, it's "shoot first and ask questions later" at the first hint of any trouble. Only way to deal with it is to stay invested in companies you believe in, and also keep a decent amount cash on hand in case the stuff hits the fan.

@jaxteller6433 9 дней назад

@@dontplayformenerogreat thing is even this case is really attractive, because if the company still keeps growing with the price falling, one day the company will have FCFY of 50% if nothing happens. So if the company in this case starts having dividens they could easily be above 15%. Where am I wrong, for example look at Kweichow Moutai rn

@stoffelbrian 11 дней назад

Apologies for the smaller screen. I made myself a little bigger since I gave the demonstration of Pepsi and Celsius' strategy. I'll try to make the screen larger in the future.

@tucoramirez9557 11 дней назад

Even the impersonating bots know of your problems @Long Term Mindset. Might be time to consider steps to maybe fix them. Might be. Consider it, at least.

@TheChinaPlay 11 дней назад

I've been a shareholder since 2019. I'm pretty use to these wild swings. Just enjoy the ride. I just wish I put more in originally. I may start selling some chip stocks and put into celh. I like business easy to understand.

@RoTelnCheese 11 дней назад

I drink it before I go sleep, when I wake up. It doesn’t do anything, it just tastes nice. So I will take a sip and buy the dip

@Proflaxis 11 дней назад

Caffeine before you sleep is just plain wrong healthwise ... just saying...

@Jarkkatube 12 дней назад

In the long term only consumer demand matters. Distributor stock will go up and down. The stock clearly overshoot because filling the warehouses and shelves was confused with consumer demand. And now the stock is overpunished when the inventory levels in the distribution chain are lowered.

@FedericoG-p3w 11 дней назад

I wouldnt call it overpunished thiugh

@randallr71 12 дней назад

It's a masterclass in not managing expectations by Celsius. They were taking credit for the sales last year and speaking/reporting as if it was real demand when it was artificial which ballooned the stock price. Now the stock is overreacting to the downside imo as this all gets clarified. And the 10% scanner growth they discussed yesterday is much weaker than expected as was the reduction in sales to PEP this quarter which, again, they inexplicably did not discuss on the Q2 CC a few weeks ago, when they clearly already knew. Pretty good chance the CEO is going to fired for not being able to communicate.

@stoffelbrian 11 дней назад

Very true

@ferrarialim 11 дней назад

This channel is gold 👍

@Floormat212 7 дней назад

Have you done an analysis on Rivian yet?

@aberhan7984 12 дней назад

Brian, you haven’t mentioned anything about international sales which is just ramping up.

@michaelmiddleton3311 11 дней назад

Thanks for in depth. I have a small position too. Hoping it's a big hit in the new overseas markets. Everyone wants the next "Monster". But those huge % gains came from a penny stock. I just want a hit! But darn it's competitive out there.

@carlosmartindelcampo1365 11 дней назад

Great video! Please make the share screen bigger for us visual learners.

@Proflaxis 11 дней назад

Brian I would recommend you get a white board for such occasions. Anyway, wanted to give my 2 cents on Celsius. I never heard of this drink until I saw it in Costco and by the looks of it I thought it was a selzer kinda drink. There was no mention of caffeine content on the outer packing. But when I learned that it has 200 mg caffeine in one can I immediately returned the whole pack. I did try one can and I can't say i like it - what's the big deal. But I was kinda bummed by the fact that caffeine content was not conspicuously written and it seemed the company was trying to keep it under the wraps - but for what reason IDK.

@geolykos 11 дней назад

Don’t even know why I put 1% of my portfolio into Celsius at $45. Gotta get off RU-vid.

@Welcome0002 11 дней назад

It has more upside than other stocks, it is a deep biy at this point, they are a profitable company, compared to others.

@brianbirnbaum9760 7 дней назад

Waiting around for macro signs usually doesn’t bode well. Buffett would never make decisions on short term things like that.

@jessehamlin3420 12 дней назад

really interesting brian - thanks - is celsius still stealing market share from mstr and red bull? it seems to me alot of the growth is unlocking new users - coke has a stronger dist network (and more popular product) then pepsi so I would imagine its tough for celsius to steal much market share from mnst - mnst also has higher margins

@danielfchen8895 8 дней назад

I like this co at $27-$28ish so options is the way to go for me

@Mathis-dh7ey 11 дней назад

I’m a mover (most of our work comes from moving military members). Celsius dominates the energy drink space in my area. 7 out of 10 energy drinks I see people drinking are Celsius. People like the taste and it’s the cheapest option here.

@jankay8569 11 дней назад

Downvoted

@bsmbB 9 дней назад

Celsius block your adrenaline receptors so after a few months of drinking it you feel like absolute shit because your brain can't turn off at night and recover

@skomanduri7157 9 дней назад

Monster stock is down as well. But, I don't understand why all of a sudden the energy drink market should be down. Will it ever recover?

@acardona50 12 дней назад

I would love to hear your input on this big recent decline on transmedics. Did they say something during the health conference that spooked investors? Thank you

@sirus312 12 дней назад

had a huge run from 30s.

@fluffhead917 11 дней назад

Maybe it’s the PE that’s over 2,800..😮

@mixnmichael1 11 дней назад

Isn't this stock heavily shorted?

@jpvanessche3185 8 дней назад

High Inventory to Sales indicates that demand may have peaked

@jackchou1425 11 дней назад

Why sales on online retailers (Costco, Amazon) are better than offline shops?

@ssjj005 8 дней назад

Do you still own PUBM??

@kempetai2099 12 дней назад

When do you think CELH will bottom out ? Could it reach sub $30?

@theranchhand 11 дней назад

I think it could as it hovers around $32 now and being tested. I am a huge bull out and next to NVDA is my biggest gainer (holding around $14) and I could argue hold too much as about 10% of my portfolio. But, these prices make me want to add a little as I am just short of 500 shares so may just round it off. But yes, could go as low as $25 I think but I imagine will not likely go too much under that. But… no crystal ball.

@paulsondj 11 дней назад

I think 26-27

@REPR100 11 дней назад

$10

@ASenseofCapital 9 дней назад

For sure an interesting company!

@plantedtrees4193 12 дней назад

Genuinely curious. I keep hearing how there is a slow down in consumer market for energy drinks. But I’m puzzled - sure if the product costs a few hundred or thousands it might give them pause but a product that only costs a few bucks and consumed daily, why would consumers cut back?

@thundercat6963 12 дней назад

Alternatives. A lot of people are switching over to Zyn since it does the same thing and in a sense more social. There is a bigger "boost", so swapping out is easier. You can carry a pack of Zyn with you everywhere but celcius needs to be cold and what not.

@catalin600 11 дней назад

you better change the name to short term mindest. you really dont think as a long term investor. celsius has a lot of room for growth but u see only short term problems and take decision based on them.

@ryanreeves70 8 дней назад

Winco sells it $1.68

@derf199 8 дней назад

Took a really long time to explain this very simple concept. Could’ve been 4-5 sentences.

@RAMZIAARON 9 дней назад

I need to taste the drink again to see if its worth investing in considering the cans are smaller than monster but cost more.....who the hell is going to buy a drink like that unless it is purely for some sort of status symbol trend or strictly for a caffeine shot(which they can get in any ED).... An energy drink needs to be delicious enough to crave when thirsty and have a low enough caffeine content, ( but not too low) that people will need to drink more to get their Kick, but also allow people to drink more with out adverse effects....It needs to be a 16oz can with 150mg of caffeine and the price needs to compete with monster maybe slightly lower for price affected consumers....CREATE higher demand create value for the consumer or it will never form a strong customer base.....Then you can raise price over time to increase profits.

@derrickhensley7898 11 дней назад

Europe is an untapped market, I'm adding as I see growth ahead

@dr.lazysloth3415 11 дней назад

Great video 😄

@cksportscards623 8 дней назад

I dont think you were drinking celcius in the making of this video. Im guessing burboun.

@douglascrawford2563 11 дней назад

You showed us charts showing the PEPSI distributorship growing while the COSCO, AMAZON, and OTHER are shrinking. You didn't say why shrink. I would have expected the PEPSI segment growing independent of most of the other distribution area- PEPSI should have been growing the distributing without taking away from the others- if they in fact were- or were those other segments pulling back entirely from Celsius? (or are these other segments shrinking due to macro economic reasons which you did mention was a factor) The shrink of the other "customer bases" is disturbing to me. Also, what is the "deal" to PEPSI- do they buy at lesser margin than the direct sales to COSCO, AMAZON & OTHER? And that could be the real reason for the fall- sales to PEPSI at the sacrifice of margin to the other locations, along with actually less sales to the other locations.

@stoffelbrian 11 дней назад

Those two (COST and AMZN) are still growing, but the rest of the segments (especially PEP) were growing FASTER. The percentage shrunk, the absolute figures are still growing

@himanshusoni528 10 дней назад

Whatever happened to that 3 million number

@nixielee 10 дней назад

A very long-winded explanation of inventory levels. This fall has very little to do with either Pepsi or Celsius, and everything to do with consumer spending. I would be expecting a comeback. Hard to say when, but nevertheless a comeback.

@buzzeod 10 дней назад

Why is the screen so small?

@adrim1367 11 дней назад

Seems to me you just trying to convince yourself of your own position. If pespi ordered to much before as you said previous growth was overstated as well. Stock still expensive on any profitability future metric imo.

@topdogsean1 11 дней назад

Do you think Celcius has a lipstick effect? Could a recession help demand as people turn away from Starbucks?

@CallmeMasta 11 дней назад

It's a habit product.. So it's pretty predictable. It already established a brand.. And that's a big moat

@TheChinaPlay 11 дней назад

Editing suggestion: Instead of your talking head taking up 70% of the screen, and finchat 30%, inverse that so we can actually see the numbers. Just and idea.