More like an LLM bubble, unluckily now AI is synonym of LLM , we have a lot of AI and machine learning models doing more specific tasks from a few years now, for instance defect detection on chip manufacturing.
It's definitely not just LLMs. Look at self driving, medical AI, landlord price fixing AI, etc. LLMs are in the limelight, but people have been using the "AI" buzzword for anything ML for years now.
We had Rule Based Expertsystems doing useful work in the 80s. The iphone is stuffed with AI systems. Yes it is very sad that people say AI when they should be saying LLM.
Yup, they blew their load making hallucinating chatbots into the face of a really deep scientific field to make a few bucks. They won't get a second chance to make a first impression.
Absolutely a bubble; and the fact that this keeps happening sheds doubt on the idea that humans are intelligent. The very idea of an AI celebrity is absurd.
It’s not useless, just now one really cares about it or knows how make it useful. Now it’s a stage of “making biggest model” so best minds are focused on it. Then this approach will reach its limits or investors will be not so happy about it best minds will refocus on utilizing models. Then we will see real impact of AI.
The idea of it being absurd is a social construction which you are aware of but refuse to accept within your worldview. It is the very same social construction which others embrace that makes the idiocy possible.... I dont disagree with you though, it's absurd. There's certain things about us as human being that we are better off leaving a mystery.
Yes it does show that humans are not very intelligent because we have plenty of braindead people like you who think something is absurd right up until it exists, showing their total lack of foresight. People like you used to think the idea of everyone carrying small computers with them was absurd, that would be cellphones now. What about the fact we fly people all around the world? You can speak almost instantly to someone on the other side of the world. If something is physically possible and technologically within reach, it will happen. Yet with all this the most obvious thing that WILL definitely happen like an AI celebrity is apparently beyond your puny tiny little imagination. Jesus this is sad.
The AI bubble refers to there being too many mouths and not enough slices of pie. But the pie is real and growing i.e. AI will still be here when the bubble bursts. Until a better technology than GPUs and CUDA come along to handle the AI, GPU prices will keep rising.
Price to Earnings is important. If the PE is 10:1, that means it has already given you 10% return this year. You'll double your money in 10 years. If it's valuation is 200:1 that means Wall Street values it that way, even though no dividend has been paid so far, if ever. It's "fake it till you make it". Personalities are invited to join the Board of Directors. It's like Crypto Influencers selling junk.
CAGR is more important for early stage companies, you'll be doubling your (paper) gains a lot sooner than 10 years. PE is a good measure for giants that are well established and move slowly like GE and ExxonMobil.
the hdd boom is an apt comparison, these startups are built on the same logic. there is something strange about SMEs abandoning ship on monumental projects just to start smaller ones though.
He's not talking about the top AI companies, he's talking about all the little startups making glorified chatGPT wrapper apps, and getting paid in stock options
I saw a YT, I think it was Slidebean, that shows a symbiotic connection between the startups and VCs. The hype bubble(s) are a requirement to keep those industries turning over. We have been promised industry revolutions before - crypto, nfts, big data etc - all driven by VCs and in the end reduced to solid, small niches but not revolutionary.
Big data is used across pretty much all large enterprises and is essentially the reason why we have cloud. It is now just another part of the mature enterprise architecture and tech stack. It is neither small nor niche.
*startup* bubble. AI is not hype, its just not something small players can generally capitalize on. The majors are doubling down on their infrastructure investments, but they've already acquired the startups they want in order to bring this next chapter in tech to monetization. There is real value in AI, you just need a $100Bn market cap in order to get to it.
LLMs seem to be a comodity and is being given away for free by many large companies. None of these companies are worth anywhere near what their current valuation is and won't exist in a decade.
AI software startups may be in a bubble, but the AI hardware boom is real. Hyperscalers are the key drivers of this growth, as they believe AGI is within reach. Over the past few years, we’ve seen significant improvements in LLM performance and accuracy, and if this trend continues, AGI could be achieved in the near future. Hyperscalers will continue investing in AI hardware as long as advancements in LLMs don’t plateau.
These unoriginal ones are 100% in a bubble, but its mostly due to VCs being bad at judgement and the AI space attracting hype beasts like very few others. Stuff like shrek sampler should be worth millions, but the guys making it seem to just be doing it for free behind anon accounts atm. The AI Celebrities thing is due to VCs being dumb and original again. What we will be able to see in the next two years, imo is the first serious AI companies who can actually bootstrap, as learning efficiency increases and the ability to make value increases.
Just like the bust of N/F/Ts, my schadenfreude bristles with excitement. Hopefully a lot of these unnecessary ai apps like the one on Google search and the one Amazon uses (Rufus? Isn’t that the fat bloke from Street Fighter 4?) will be discontinued and moved to the wayside.
NFTs were never worth anything to begin with. Automation / AI is valuable from the start. AI in the form of Deep and Machine Learning has been here the whole time and has already proven it's value. LLMs are here to stay because it can make sense of random input. That's valuable. ChatBots are only one small public piece of that functionality.
There's no where else to put the money. The Fed keeps bond yields artificially low so there's no reason to take part in safe investments as they won't outpace inflation. Save your money and lose it, buy bonds and lose it, buy value stocks and lose it, but growth zombie companies and only 95% chance you lose it but 5% chance you find a gold mine ... the choice is easy for people with excess capital.
Bit off topic but please do any of you no a piece of AI software that will let me download a picture then modify it I have a picture of a friends tennis court and he's away and I want to send him a picture of his court with a 'Sinkhole' in it !
Not really. Its all VC and PE money. You have some retail investors but its all speculative investing. Money is still cheap historically. In fact there is far to much of it. Trillions of dollars could evaporate and it would not effect the real economy at all. Far less disruptive than if all the fever dreams of AI came true.
The only good thing the I boom has brought so far is alphafold. Everything else is rubbish. AI generated code? Buggy. AI generated text? Slop. AI generated art? Soulless
GPT4 is a pretty good translation assistant. Combined with an honest Human translator, it speeds up the whole process immensely while improving accuracy.
@@kalaidoscopez5388 For instance, when presented with the undeniable evidence that Communism has never worked anywhere in the entire history of the world, a portion of the population will double down on their denial, often citing anecdotal "evidence" such as “this book says it still can and it wasn’t ‘true’ Communism anyway!”
I sub to like 4 different companies so I can cash in if any of them go big, just it’s just a sub and they only like me for my money, or only for my addition to the number of people they can say they have as a customer when they get the next round of funding
