The Day of Reckoning for the United States Economy is Here.

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The trajectory of U.S. national debt has been staggering: from a total of $1 trillion in 1980 to an overwhelming $35 trillion today, significantly outpacing economic growth. This explosion of debt has not only raised concerns about future economic stability but also challenged the traditional understanding of debt's impact on financial markets, which appear largely indifferent despite potentially ominous projections. As historical data and academic studies suggest, while high debt levels correlate with diminished economic growth, the immediate effects on the stock market, driven by factors like low interest rates, remain complex and multifaceted.
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Опубликовано:

1 май 2024

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Комментарии : 104

@martincagle9226 25 дней назад

There is no plan to repay the debt and it never will be repaid.

@avernvrey7422 25 дней назад

1800 until 1972, the debt had to be paid back with gold. Now it doesn't. So, since 1972 it's been advantageous for the government to write debt and pay it back later with inflated currency. That's why you see the graph do that, starting right about at... 1972... wow, what a coincidence!

@wualli2494 25 дней назад

The Stockmarket being at near all times highs can be credited to the Plunge Protection Team and the Fed's interference in the Markets. There are no Free Markets in existence today.

@daneedwards2644 25 дней назад

Thank the boomer politicians for this.

@billyhomeyer7414 25 дней назад

The 60’s hippies.

@brianpereira7483 25 дней назад

All part of the cycle man, dont fall for that game

@wallstreetcowboy3520 25 дней назад

34T of US debt is actually Robert Kiyosaki

@singledadsurrogacy 25 дней назад

Can we accelerate this already

@couchbeer7267 25 дней назад

andrew jackson had the national debt paid down to $0 in 1835

@Qichar 18 дней назад

It's true that there isn't a technical recession right now by the book definition. But the GDP numbers are lagging. The 10-2 tbill is already un-inverting. If you really look at Main Street (not Wall Street), you see that the real economy is pulling back. 1) The GDP in other parts of the world is pulling back. The economy is linked. 2) Corporations are propping up earnings by laying off employees. 3) Inflation makes it look like earnings are up but they aren't. Each dollar is worth less. Nominal GDP is not inflation adjusted. (Real GDP is) 4) Each of the recent labor reports are showing that hiring has really slowed down. 5) Look at the transportation numbers, and you will realize that a recession is already loaded in the chamber. It cannot be avoided now, the only question is how deep. 6) Look at the rotating credit statistics--they are spiking up. Really listen to what reports from Starbucks and other companies are saying. Discretionary spending is down.

@Divided-Shark 25 дней назад

I have $130k sitting on the sidelines in cash waiting for this ponzi to collapse

@PermanentExile 25 дней назад

It’s worse than the numbers indicate because a sizable amount of GDP comes from government spending the new debt, and thus actual productive GDP is far lower than it might seem. Debt-to-GDP is a poor measurement, since one pumps the other.

@Dan16673 25 дней назад

Yeah I hate gdp as a good measure

@HouseofTheRisingFunk 25 дней назад

Bingo

@brendangolledge8312 25 дней назад

If you adjust nominal GDP for both population and Big Mac inflation, then real US GDP per person peaked around the year 2000. Debt has been increasing because our monetary system is based on usury.

@ameyajadhav7634 25 дней назад

Power of compounding

@gordongekko2781 24 дня назад

If you pause to look at the chart [0:41] it's really in just the past 20 years that the debt has started dramatically outpacing GDP. Which is interesting since people having been freaking out about the national debt for 50 years. That being said, we obviously cannot continue growing the debt faster than the economy or the whole system will break at some point.

@glenn.albert 25 дней назад

The US needs to cut government expenditures and start to pay his debt. De-escalating the war conflicts around the world will significantly help to reduce he military budget.

@texdevildog9174 25 дней назад

Government cannot let stock market to devalue. They are counting on $trillion of taxes from tax deferred retirement accounts. FED will need to monetize the debt with yield rate control.

@erongi233 25 дней назад

For the US it is probably the process like becoming bankrupt. Slowly then all of a sudden very fast. There is still the international demand for the main world currency, the US dollar, and who knows when that demand will suddenly snap as confidence disappears.

@ChrisAthanas 20 дней назад

All interest-based fiat currency systems must fail ALL Prepare for incoming

@pjdelucala 25 дней назад

You are not including the present value of future liabilities. The General Acceptable Accounting Practices guideline must include that as well. The real debt is about 200 trillion dollars.

@lotsofthisandthat9791 25 дней назад

Ohhhhhh just print the money!!

@honkhonkler7732 25 дней назад

Just pop the debt bubble already. We know there wont be a soft landing, so do the right thing, get the economic depression out of the way as soon as possible so we can come out of it with a prosperous and affordable economy. It will be terrible, but runaway inflation and prolonged extreme unaffordability is a far worse alternative.

@markphillips9822 25 дней назад

The miracle of compounding can be a horrible thing.

@dpirkl4560 25 дней назад

When it's not in your favor.

@royjays4588 25 дней назад

I remember the 2008 crisis. Germany was doing badly until then; whereas Spain, Greece, etc, were doing really well. Germany was one of teh few EU countries that used large amounts of money (debt) to get out of the crisis; Spain, Greece, etc. entrered austerity. The result was that Germany became the power house of the EU while the south experienced an incredible crisis from which it has never recovered.

@delmonicofarquhar9893 25 дней назад

If you look at the rising debt levels as simply the left-hand side of a bell curve, then, once the embedded inflation is too great to control, that curve will flatten, then decline precipitously as inflation, bankruptcies and various forms of debt repudiation take hold. That will be when the inflation rate that was held in abeyance during the debt bubble begins its own parabolic left-hand-side of a bell curve. Where it goes, nobody knows, but it will happen.

@KBroly 25 дней назад

There's more dollar-denominated debt outside of the US than inside. That means that everyone else goes first. It's a total stack of cards.

@michael-qp9xd 25 дней назад

Hello - just checked and 5 largest debt holders of usa debt outside us is only about 3.5 trillion. Total usa debt is about 34 trillion so doesn’t seem possible that 17 trillion outside usa. The fed alone is holding about 7 trillion of debt. What does your data shown on debt holders?

@asherzelig221 25 дней назад

The Debt to GDP ratio peaked in Q2 of 2020 (mainly due to COVID) and is significantly lower now than at that time.

@wtf_usa5597 25 дней назад

You charts are amazing, thank you!! 👏👏👏👏

@JS-jh4cy 25 дней назад

If everyone farted than it will speed up

@jarom6894 25 дней назад

If you want to understand stock market first you need to understand bond market

@jasonaris5316 22 дня назад

Debt is a feature of a debt based fiat currency system It expands until the real economy can no longer support interest payments and it all collapses

@John-xv8no 19 дней назад

Japan has been over 100% debt to gdp for 20+ years. Currently, at 250%+ in 2024. The markets are solely driven by massive greed the last decade. I dont think this debt to GDP really correlates to anything anymore.

@doolittlegeorge 25 дней назад

Modern economics takes as a given that debt is going to be inflated away so the problem isn't the debt but the inflation. "How does Society pay for anything if inflation is raging away" not debt. Certain Government officials claim "taxpayer money" is in fact "Government money" but this is no longer true once everyone is out of work and inflation is still raging away. And Government isn't the only one issuing debt needs noting as well.

@matthewsemenuk7544 25 дней назад

Wait a sec.. what was the average price of oil pre pandemic? Shouldn't oil, like almost all other commodities post pandemic, feel the inflationary burn? Most commodities I know are up about 35% or near all time highs, so why wouldn't oil?

@RationalEgoism 25 дней назад

I don't doubt that debt hurts growth, but I wonder if that study adjusted for the size of the economy. For example, the US had lower debt levels in the past. Going from a society where half worked in farming to 1% due to mechanization created huge growth. That can only happen once.

@user-hd3pc6pn3g 7 дней назад

Defence spending has a history of destroying empires.

@chavocanuck 25 дней назад

I googled debt/gdp by country and noticed Australia (NZ too)is drastically lower than most of the developed world. How did that happen?

@tysmith2366 25 дней назад

These high interest rates only matter when they have to refinance their debt.

@Wilhuf1 15 часов назад

When the Roman Empire collapsed it didn’t owe a dime.

@HeadStronger-HS 25 дней назад

That was a great video. I agree the stock market is not going to be the best place to park money over the next decade.

@jonesdarryn1 25 дней назад

8:09 i remember that candle, it was jacksonhole 22. what do u think is the significance of that trendline? why do u think it cares about that day but not the peak of that rally?

@thecautionaryinsomniac7108 21 день назад

This is my favourite comment section ever

@TheStifmeister. 23 дня назад

Keep up the good work❤

@funnyperson4016 25 дней назад

Stock investors do care about debt look at M1 vs the stock market. Market underperforms M1 by a lot. More money but stocks don’t go up proportionately. Stocks still go up but not as much as it would have.

@Petrosilius 25 дней назад

Dude, I would love having a chat with you someday! Your work ist outstanding, consistent content and your predictions nail it a lot of times. ❤ Love from Germany ❤

@JamesPaulWhite 25 дней назад

This is a compelling enough story without the hype. What are the national debt numbers per capita and inflation adjusted?

@ApriFoat 25 дней назад

Interesting 😮

@wjpeaj8890 25 дней назад

Debt to the Gov is nothing

@SouthShoreSonics 21 день назад

0:22 A generation is generally considered 20-30 years. 40 years is a stretch.

@kdub6593 7 дней назад

Yes. Debt won't be repaid. The US will soon see our yearly budget going solely to debt repayment. Our savior will be near negative rates.

@9bytehub 25 дней назад

Meanwhile we had two green days in a row given bad news in different directions

@KierzolSLU 22 дня назад

Dollar denomination with banking crisis will repeat like 2007-09 and US government can go x3 from todays lvls in few years. I bet on that scenario.

@dend1 25 дней назад

Election year this is a 2025 problem

@user-ue8dc5mk6i 23 дня назад

The most important question is when the US debt bubble will burst?

@clintalbertson9636 25 дней назад

Sure could

@georgemdonnelly 25 дней назад

US inflation is due to State spending as well.

@KittyNinjas 25 дней назад

Interest growing daily...so terrible and the irresponsible idiots act like the money trees are unlimited.

@Alejandrolucia-s 18 дней назад

Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%, but what could be my safest buys with $400k to outperform the market in 2024?

@jamesray4376 25 дней назад

Tesla robotaxis and other disruptive innovation could increase debt to GDP over the next 5 years as industries are disrupted and GDP falls, but increase GDP and decrease debt to GDP over longer than five years. Robotaxis would also reduce demand and the price for oil.

@organichand-pickedfree-ran1463 25 дней назад

@1:17 one generation is 15-30years. 40 is more like two generations.

@danwlfn 25 дней назад

But more dept is for more population. No dept means no growth?

@mayalucia- 18 дней назад

intresting video The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.

@erickanter 25 дней назад

National debt hits 50 trillion in about a decade cbo.

@twilightbin 25 дней назад

low growth often leads to lower inflation and lower rates. This video doesn't fit with what i've read.

@VanIife 25 дней назад

BUCKLE UP LFG

@tatanka9913 25 дней назад

booooom

@theblockchainclub1 25 дней назад

In 1000 AD people trade milk for nuts 😂

@advancedbodydesign День назад

Japan has more DEBT to GDP than USA-----....... AND..... THEIR STOCK MARKET AT ALL TIME HIGHS.... Good Luck 🍀 monetizing this info

@TheDoomWizard 13 дней назад

BUY GME & AMC

@ivanr77 25 дней назад

First

@pedi-kun3978 4 дня назад

the us economy being carried by Nvidia right now

@ibuyzzz 25 дней назад

Minsky moment incoming

@mitchellsmith4601 25 дней назад

A generation is 20 years, not forty. Read a book.

@adamclark4978 25 дней назад

omg first im so special!

@TehPwnerer 25 дней назад

Debt will continue to increase exponentially just like it has for decades. As long as it is inflated away at a similar rate this can go on indefinitely. Inflation will be a lot higher but that's about it

@8peterp 25 дней назад

so it's TINA nothing else

@VayporWayve 18 дней назад

republican obsession with line go up has now caused the wrong lines to go up

@dougiep2769 25 дней назад

Time to return to sound money. Time to return to actual capitalism.. what we have now in canada sure isnt capitallism every single place you turn is a monopoly or close to it.

@binggangan 24 дня назад

too much greenback will be the worthless paper one day...soon

@monkaZETTA 24 дня назад

Let's Go Brandon!

@FinancialToolBuilder 25 дней назад

I'm surprised that you had the 5000 level on your TA. For once it matched my drawings. But after double checking it's complete luck. The info you provide are always very interesting, and i love the channel, but take no offence, your charting skills are uncomprehensible.

@kurttSchuster 25 дней назад

The only American who won't acknowledge this Administration's failed economic policies is Joe Biden. "Shrink-flation' is the least of our worries compared to rising rents and stagnant wages, but it is an undeniable indicator of how bad our inflation has gotten. I have $100k that i like to invest in a non-retirement account, any advice on that?

@firstlast8258 21 день назад

Too late for most 🤓 🖕