James always brings so much more depth and color to the conversation and is great to listen to as Dave asks the questions we want to ask him and a few we might not have thought to ask. What a fantastic resource. This series should be required for anyone covering Tesla on Wall Street.
I could not agree more with James. It’s so refreshing to hear his perspective and to break it down so well like he does. Stunning interview. Thank you James!
I get it and so happy that others do as well. I'm currently 80 and doing everything I can to live at least another 20 years to see what will happen by then! Also own 100 shares of Tesla which is a side benefit compared to what Elon and his teams are doing! Glad to see so many share in all the excitement!
Without a single doubt, this hour and half has been the best time I have spent recently, so much knowledge, foresight and insight, totally amazing, thanks to both you guys!
FSD wil finish much faster then most people think: Tesla has made on a regular basis many deep-structural huge FSD changes: think of the vector-space, photon counting etc. This while thousands of people driving around in it. My experience as a software engineer tells me that they have reached now an optimum for those huge changes: they have found the shortest possible way: representing the photons of all camera's directly in one vector-space and making decisions on that is extremely efficient. Frequency of huge changes will go down strongly (V11 - single stack will be one of the last). Respect for Tesla for they have implemented so many huge structural changes with FSD-beta-drivers finding hardly regressions. The last was a lot of work. After the 'single stack'-release, product improvement will accelerate much faster. Polishing only goes much faster then restructuring and also keeping 60.000 users happy..... What they are doing will be history for ever! Dave: please make a video around this idea!
Totally agree with James on the rate of progress and how hard things are sundenly there. On the flip side, I often use the analogy of the rolling hills : when you are working on a never before solved technical problem to get to a goal, you only know of the next hill, and you have no idea if your goal is one hill away or 10 hills away, and there is no way to know until you get to the last downhill..
The feeling I get when I watch their conversations, besides excitement for the future, is happiness that these two people exist, and that they are sharing their insights with us. Thank you, Dave and James.
Hey Dave, just wanted to say thank you for this. The effect that you and other commentators on Tesla and EV’s provides is a sense of calm thoughtfulness in these times that feel so turbulent. Without this I’m not certain that I or many other long time Tesla investors could keep our perspective, and hold on through the choppy waters. The future is bright, and I see it clearly in this moment. Thanks again!
Thanks Dave for another great interview with James. I feel like the chemistry of you two together really brings out the best in both of you for conveying insights on the world of Tesla AI to your audience. Please keep doing these shows together, they are really good and very much appreciated. :)
Same here. I live in Africa and don't have the funds to purchase a share. I'm a die-hard Tesla fan and would love to be a Tesla share holder. Please help me with one
And I live in Nigeria. I'll buy some shares off you at 10% more than you paid for them. All I need are your bank account details. I'll send you a form to fill out, lol.
James is one of our generations greatest gifts to the Universe. And thank you Dave for creating these venues, you bring the best out of all your guests and have opened a lot of doors for everyone!
I feel exactly like James when he says: Elon is the only public figure with whom I agree with everything he says, and when I listen to politicians it makes me sick to the stomach and I just turn it off
Love your videos, the ones with James are my favorites! ...as I watch this, his take is EXACTLY the way I took it. And I'm kinda thrilled the market wasn't smart enough to get it.
Stunning interview! Tesla has the vision, talent, guts, execution to solve the most challenging problems . I am glad to hear they already look into the future not stop what they have. Investors should happy with the roadmap.
These talks are like Christmas presents for me when they show up! Big thanks for sharing and helping all of us to make well grounded decisions on tsla and it’s future!
Tesla is playing 4d chess. Analysts and public didn’t think EVs would succeed, watch out for FSD , Optimus, AI. The future is indeed bright. Take advantage of the sale!
energy with upcoming lfp batteries and insurance should be noted as well. As an shareholder I really liked that they focus on higher margin models for more profit.
Tesla has a set of key technologies while on the journey of EV. Now with the matureness of the key technologies reaching a high level, it makes sense for Elon to pursue new products basing on these technologies. If Elon doesn't, then telsa will be no difference than others companies.
the fact that they're even attempting to make these kinds of inroads keeps them in the conversation and ahead of other technology companies who have tunnel vision
All these dots finally connected into a path. EV, Solar roof, FSD, Dojo, Optimus, all these will contribute a lot to the core vision of Tesla, or even SpaceX. Esp. Optimus, easily to put it on Mars, helping the first Migrants to build up a fundation there as Optimus is much more adaptive to harsh environment. And The Street only see the EVs not the Vision, so they will not see the whole picture.
It is amazing and encouraging to see James happy and exited about the Optimus projection. Glad to be MM plus tesla investor. I see 100X possible with Optimus.
On another channel someone said their M-S had saved their life when they fell asleep at the wheel in Autopilot mode. The car drove itself for 20 minutes before waking him up with an alert after automatically pulling off onto the verge and stopping. Teslas already regularly save lives even without full FSD.
I must say that I feel much safer in my M3 (with AP/FSD beta) than in my Honda CRV with its safety s/w (I.e., adaptive CC, lane keeping, etc.) despite the need to stay aware and supervise the drive. There are so many aspects of the Tesla FSD that put it years ahead of the others. The difference is, it will only be as good as the responsibility level of the driver, until the day that all cars are created equal.
i would feel safer if all the other vehicles were on the same or a compatible platform and can more-or-less communicate with each other in order to be more predictable in their movements
@@360.Tapestry Agree. I think before regulators may compel FSD use, they will “require” the car to join the “network” whenever on the road. And then, all cars should be at an equal risk level, while automatically compensating for environmental variables ( weather, camera vis., road conditions, etc.) However, L5 will be achieved many years in the future, if ever. I think we will struggle with advancement to L4 for a long time as well. Many “chicken and egg” dilemmas and political issues to address, unfortunately. Huge paradigm shift to navigate with major dependencies to resolve among the many worldwide stakeholders. Yet, I still think it is doable.
@@360.Tapestry I hear that a lot. I think it's a fundamentally wrong assumption and won't happen. All sorts of problems if cars have to signal each other and rely in any way on incoming comms from other cars. You won't find the Tesla team talking about that at all.
Just finally realized why my brain works so differently, the hyper-focus ability has almost always been a massive advantage. I'm not very good at focusing on more than one topic at a time. I can see it in my youngest son as well. Being on the spectrum is a super power in many ways.
@@1flash3571 I'm in California so taxes plays a huge part in that decision. Even this recent drop and timing the top and bottom perfectly may not be enough to cover the overhead due to taxes.
Watching the earnings call, I formed the impression that something fundamental had changed for Elon regarding FSD. He has always been confident, but I think his belief was always tempered by the realisation that something totally unexpected could come up, making the project beyond his team's current ability. Then, in the last six months or so, a bridge was crossed and any lingering doubts gave way to absolute certainty that the goal was achievable and soon. Hence the decision to open the floodgates and let in tens of thousands of new beta testers. We should expect dramatic progress in 2022.
He is seeing the single stack. Once it comes out training only takes working on one stack. That saves money and time. And it makes all changes easier to work with as all problems are found in one stack. This will be when we see things start moving more quickly and smoother.
Thanks Dave & James. Your observations and comments are so poignant and refreshing. Thank you for your efforts to share such critical information. Following Elon’s contribution to the earnings call and your videos, I’m smiling ear to ear 😁.
That was fantastic. So much information conveyed in the allotted time. I could have stayed tuned for hours but I might be on the spectrum myself(recent revelation). 5 stars!
Great Conversation. I have one thing to add concerning the comment James made regarding the reason Tesla has for producing a $25,000 car. Its not to keep demand from flagging after saturating the market with Tesla's $50,000 cars, its to accelerate the adoption of EV's and continuing to execute the Tesla Master Plan of 2006. The demand for a $25,000 car (at half the price of a model 3 or Y) will not be double that for their $50,000 cars, but exponentially greater, as the relationship between price and demand is not linear. A far greater percentage of the population can afford a $25,000 car as opposed to one going for $50,000. If Tesla had the components, batteries, capacity and personnel to produce the car without reducing the total number of cars produced this year, they'd probably be moving ahead on the $25,000 car now.
James bringing expert level understanding to Tesla AI program, great interview Dave. This is the level of information we investors need, and fun to listen, you guys nailed it, thankyou.
i totally enjoy Daves channel,my fave interview is when he has james on. James talks at my layman level( not a computer guy, but he talks in a way i can understand)
@@danj5875 Just can't do it. Have to turn them off. I smiled to hear him say these things. God bless aspies. They're truth-tellers in a world of believers.
@@danj5875 I immediately thought of Joe Biden praising Mary Barra for "leading the way" on EVs. Oh, Joe. You are better than that orange twat, but really? I can't even listen to you right now. Come back when you're ready to make some sense.
This is how I think and I am so glad to have James express all the points so well. To doubt this goal (FSD, AI robots) is achievable or even to discount it outright (as others here in the comments have done - I ask, why do you get up in the morning if you don't want to see the world improve?) is to live in a world of static stupidity. This IS the future. Just get onboard man! As Dave's wife said, as Tesla investors, we are being given a front row seat and early access to the greatest startups in history. For free!
Optimus Bot seems to have 3 major components for success . . . 1) Mechanical - Can you make humanoid robot with the physical ability to do human activities. Needs the strength, agility, and fine motor skills. Robot tech seems to be getting close but isn't quite there yet? 2) AI - the AI neural net for training the robot to figure out how to do its job. I actually think this is the easiest part. Most robot jobs at first will be very specific (just keep flipping burgers, etc). The AI for this is simple compared to self driving. 3) Manufacturing - the above two don't matter if you can mass produce an affordable cost. Right now virtually all robots are very specialized for specific tasks, low volume, and expensive. An all purpose 'general task' humanoid robot could be produced in great volume and Tesla sure seems to have the expertise to pull this off.
Thank you both! I'm glad and worried that nothing in this interview got me disagreeing with neither James nor Dave. Does it mean a good or a bad thing for the community?
James hit on one of my biggest risk factors of AI which is the transformation of the labor model. What will all those workers do when robots make cars for example. Oh, wait, robots already build cars today and humans at the labor level have moved to tending the robots and doing the final finish checks. That happened pretty fast so it will likely happen fast with the big labor force. Like James says, running farms, building homes, making furniture, refrigerators - all very task oriented activities.
I agree with your analysis, Dave, these talks with James have been very valuable to me. Thanks for that. On the subject of licensing out FSD to OEMs, I think of that as a short term stopgap. The logical progression is yes, the OEMS will need the software to be able to compete. It will occur to them that it will be much more economical for them to additionally use Tesla hardware - computers, chips sensors, etc. In their short sighted mindset, it will then dawn on them that to purchase the skateboard would be more feasible, as Elon is doing batteries, motors, chassis, etc, in essence, pretty much the whole drive train, more efficiently and of better quality than they could do on their own, within a reasonable period of time. And then, once you have a bunch of Teslas, running around with a Ford Fusion body, I mean, what's the point? I think they're all gonna die :)
James’ analysis on just keep ramping up production of Models 3 and Y, and not make the $25k car till the 3/Y demand wanes, just makes sense. He is right. That analysis on how Elon and the management team would be thinking is spot on. Don’t hear any Wall Street analysts thinking along this line. Which explains why Elon has time to work on the robot problem. James is brilliant. He would make a good analyst.
James at 24:45 hit the nail on the head. There are going to be a massive amount of specialized AI’s that are going to make Optimus a massive global success on a level that we’ve never seen. No need for General AI. And actually it’s easier to achieve than FSD.
Recently we drove back from Texas with FSD and we enjoyed it very much to drive around Austin and Houston areas and heading back home to central Florida . In some areas the FSD. got turned off for some reason and also a dipping when coming closer to a semi trucks or trucks with trailers . Scary!
One of the most exciting interview I’ve seen for a while. Jason is great. Looking forward to the next interview. I watch Gary’s video too and it’s very obvious that Wallstreet model don’t work on Tesla. Even when they see it ( Gary don’t see it either) they can integrate it in their models. That’s way only ARK us capable to understand Tesla, they see Tesla in a different way which Wallstreet never will or too late for most ppl to participate.
Every field requires resources and huge amount of data to master them. For AI, Tesla is the leader in the physical space, FB and Google is leading the human-interaction space. Tesla will be laser focused on their mission on solving the physical space for the most part of the next few years. I think Dojo is built to master just that. Other applications like human companion and solving general intelligence should come later if they’re interested.
Thanks James. I needed this interview. After the Black interview yesterday I was dreading a multi year battle between institutions and Tesla. Black was prescient about the first descent from $1200. But after this interview, I'm ok with that.
In theory clients can employ Optimus to do a "basic" task and then specialise in these tasks in a fraction of the time it takes a human to. This newfound knowledge can propagate to the fleet of bots and all specialised tasks can be merged into a single stack (Artificial SuperIntelligence). FSD gives these machines the high-level "template" for understanding/navigating its surroundings (the real world) . They can start with basic repetitive tasks and propagate, then move in more complex specialised tasks and propagate. It will happen faster than we expect if Tesla delivers on FSD the way each factory improves with manufacturing processes. #hitsblunt
This talk was so amazing guys, its just so awesome to see people that think "like me" chatting. Loved the Aspergers point. I do feel like that is entirely relevant. I am "undiagnosed", my son is, but it seems to be totally genetic. My life reads like an Aspergers book, yet we still don't understand it. Anyway, I appreciate you guys and will feed on everything you put out. Love it.
Dave, I love these as an FSD owner myself but can I suggest you try to find someone who can discuss legal rollout? Saying I can sleep is more than it being good enough and Tesla insuring me. That’s the barrier I fear. As James says that’s down to politicians and what happens when there is the first death? These are major risks I can’t get my head round. Agree with capability and Teslas boldness totally…
This was such a great conversation! Congrats, Dave! About FSD-licensing: What are the technical requirements for non-Tesla cars so that it would make sense for those manufacturers to license FSD? Shouldn’t they all need 8 cameras? Which non-Tesla cars currently have 8 cameras (preferably located similarly as on Teslas)?
Thank you so much! So awesome! Just bought FSD for my Model 3 on Jan 16! Bought as much TSLA as could after call when the price fell! Seems so obvious! Time will tell but I have placed my bet. Folks need to follow your channel.
Phenomenal stuff! James' opening salvo is powerful. Love the interview. Romans 11:36 came into play a few times as James calls on Jesus a few times to frame the humongous nature of what we're looking at. We desperately need the FSD paradigm shift. How many times do you nearly have to die or screw up for this penny to drop! Thanks Dave... 😊
Great interview Dave and James. Regarding Tesla licensing FSD, I suspect Elon is thinking way ahead to where Teslas is utterly dominant in EVs, FSD and Robotaxis. He wants the mission to succeed more than anything else, and one massive risk down the track is regulatory intervention if Tesla becomes too monopolistic. I suspect he will make licensing FSD “acceptable” for OEMs so that there are competitive EV robotaxi fleets. Massive scaling of these fleets as fast as possible across every city is also central to their mission, and Tesla will need help!
Dave, can you please talk about the competitor piece in detail? The way I see it, Tesla bulls (including myself) might be overlooking this. Google, for example would be the company most would think is a leader in this area. Waymo has level 4 self driving, Google has way more diverse data ownership, they've been investing in robotics, AI, computing years ahead of Tesla. I was super emotionally bullish on Tesla after the earnings call. But after calming my bias, I think that we may be putting a bit of biased faith in Elon a bit blindly. Can you please talk about: 1) how is Tesla better equipped / progressed for this compared to companies like Google? 2) did we get any tangible evidence to show exactly how much progress was made on this front? 3) do we believe that Tesla will be able to compete with Google and survive this marketplace?
