The Fed needs to undo the damage of raising rates too high, says Duke's Campbell Harvey 

Someone should create a metric that has the same mean/variance over time as the yield curve, but is a complete random walk, and see how often this "predicts" a recession with a lag of 6-23 months. Such an imprecise prediction is hardly a prediction at all.

The Fed needs to let the air out of all of the bubbles from leaving the interest rates at zero for a decade too long.

Even 5% or 4.75% interest rates probably wouldn't do much for growth at this point. It seems liquidity and credit are jammed up because of too much risk. There is so much baked-in inflation from supply problems, shortages, energy instability, cost pushing, and geopolitical and social issues that there is no way that stagnant income's can keep up with it all. It looks like it's going to be a stagflation and recession situation for the next couple of years.

the damage was keeping them too low for 15 years. They will never go under 3% for many years

Interest Rates are too high, just ask anyone in a variable rate mortgage.

My stockbroker has never told me to pull my money. Can you believe that? LOL

Yet more evidence that the old models / indicators don't work well anymore.

1:12 Looks like Steve could barely keep a straight face.

How long do we have to avoid recession. I am a believer in this recession.

He is not 8 for 8. The inverted yield curve of 2019 would not have indicated a recession had it not been for COVID. It did not properly forecast the shutting down of the economy due to a pandemic which led to a brief recession and then a subsequent boom. If the pandemic did not occur, there would not have been a recession for a whole list of reasons. The main reason: the data and trend lines did not support a recession anytime on the horizon.