Someone should create a metric that has the same mean/variance over time as the yield curve, but is a complete random walk, and see how often this "predicts" a recession with a lag of 6-23 months. Such an imprecise prediction is hardly a prediction at all.
Even 5% or 4.75% interest rates probably wouldn't do much for growth at this point. It seems liquidity and credit are jammed up because of too much risk. There is so much baked-in inflation from supply problems, shortages, energy instability, cost pushing, and geopolitical and social issues that there is no way that stagnant income's can keep up with it all. It looks like it's going to be a stagflation and recession situation for the next couple of years.
Agree the people in these position is nothing like the nighties and I made a lot of money then. I doing the opposite. Now when I am nice and comfortable and set I miss the old days
He is not 8 for 8. The inverted yield curve of 2019 would not have indicated a recession had it not been for COVID. It did not properly forecast the shutting down of the economy due to a pandemic which led to a brief recession and then a subsequent boom. If the pandemic did not occur, there would not have been a recession for a whole list of reasons. The main reason: the data and trend lines did not support a recession anytime on the horizon.