The Financial Crisis No One Is Talking About

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00:00 Intro
00:46 Money Supply
01:41 Decreasing Supply
04:17 Commercial Bank Credit
06:22 Aligned WIth Recession
07:29 Time Is Your Best Friend
08:16 Think Long-Term
Some of my favorite books: amzn.to/3KF3tlr
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Disclaimer: Please note that this video is made for entertainment purposes only and not to be taken as financial advice. Always make sure to do your own research.
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Опубликовано:

27 июн 2024

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Комментарии : 269

@user-kw5gh8ej8y 3 месяца назад

It was an honor being your guest again, Erin!

@ErinTalksMoney 3 месяца назад

Thanks 🙏 for taking the time to be on Ian!

@carlosreid51 3 месяца назад

@@ErinTalksMoney thanks for posting the M0 M1 M2 M3 about finance

@Azel247 3 месяца назад

The only metrics I pay attention to are my personal savings rate and net worth growth

@edwardramos9666 3 месяца назад

The comment is Hot. cash flow for investing!

@AshB245 3 месяца назад

This is one of the best statements I've heard. I'll be stealing this.

@davidzawistowski4073 3 месяца назад

Oh look, I didn’t watch other metrics and now I’m measuring my losses…

@epbrown01 3 месяца назад

@@davidzawistowski4073That will happen whether you watch the metrics or not. The goal isn’t trying to predict when it happens, but to be prepared for when it happens. Preparation turns catastrophe to inconvenience.

@FaintAura 3 месяца назад

Take my upvote.

@EmilyAllan 3 месяца назад

The decrease of the money supply coincides with bank failures, less lending by banks, less borrowing by consumers, and more saving because of the higher interest rates. Fair warning: This is the first week I've gotten the same feeling about the economy that I had back in 2007. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. There are some rough times ahead. Some advice: Don't have any debt, have 6 to 12 months savings to cover needs, and don't panic. This is the third wave I've ridden in the economy in the stage of a contraction vs the normal expansion, and its a painful process, especially for young people that haven't had a chance to build up an emergency fund. Once we get through this contraction, the good times will return.

@Jawnderlust 3 месяца назад

We've never had quite this extreme ..incomprehensible.. level of money rattling around, and such a highly malleable digital economy... and we've never had quite this mix of full employment and strong fundamentals with such major obvious issues. I've been spouting Commercial Real Estate Doomsday theories since work from home became permanent.. but who knows.. that will most likely be a tummy ache we have to push through for 10 years rather than one big cascade. Perhaps everyone's collective negative sentiment that 'something is about to go wrong' will set in and the economy will ratchet down.. or perhaps not for another 5 years. (Seems like every person online is becoming more negative by the day, and eventually consumer mentality as a whole shifts... self fulfilingly). If I was betting, I'd guess it will require and external stressor to cause a failure we're not directly thinking of.

@bigfoot14eee99 3 месяца назад

I generally concur. Perhaps not as dire as you've outlined, but a correction of over 20% is highly likely in the next couple of years.

@mikezerker6925 3 месяца назад

Oh good! I’m going to buy buy buy!!

@JBoy340a 3 месяца назад

If we do have a major contraction it will be a great time to acquire. Home prices will be lower, equities will be bargains, etc. vacations will be cheaper, etc. Keep cash and cash like assets ready to pick up the bargains. Good investments prices will get caught in the downdraft and correct upward rapidly.

@misspatvandriverlady7555 3 месяца назад

So paying off my student loans as I had planned (15 YEARS after graduation) is a good idea, then! Cool! 😎

@dstevens518 3 месяца назад

I saw a financial video today where the host insisted on pinning a small video of himself narrating on top of the chart he was talking about, blocking the information he was trying to explain. So infuriating. Makes me grateful for someone who actually is trying to educate their audience, as opposed to claiming their 15 seconds of fame. Don't ever lose that part of you.

@bdautch20 3 месяца назад

I really enjoyed how you expanded beyond personal finance to a more macroeconomics approach. I hope you continue to sprinkle in videos of this type from time to time going forward.

@dreamchaser5758 3 месяца назад

Agreed, I thoroughly enjoyed this video.

@jaimehernandez2036 3 месяца назад

Super awesome video that helped me understand the commercial lending issue. I've heard lots about it, but didn't understand until Ian put it out so clearly. Thank you! 🙏

@drbcrb 3 месяца назад

When Covid started and people moved to work from home I felt the commercial real estate market would collapse. I feel that many companies are forcing employees back as they have these empty buildings and they likely cannot sell them.

@AkweliParker 3 месяца назад

BINGO!

@MechE11B 3 месяца назад

They can't sell them so naturally it's common sense to force their use and rack up utility bills on top of already expensive mortgages.

@dstevens518 3 месяца назад

@@MechE11B Exactly. Stupid to lower employee morale and increase turnover just cause you don't like a sunk cost. Rent some of your space out as temp office space for others. Poach good employees you come across that way.

@davidzawistowski4073 3 месяца назад

@@dstevens518who you gonna rent that space to? The other companies with work at home employees?

@lewieanderson6579 3 месяца назад

Yep! The rent is due and the building's owners are crying for help.

@synchronicity458 3 месяца назад

I feel like in 10-20 years, as a generation we are going to be crying "But we did everything right, we invested in mutual funds and held onto them just like we were told"

@user-vp4iu9qu4i 3 месяца назад

Great information! Ian brings up some excellent points about commercial real estate.

@ld5714 3 месяца назад

Erin, this was a good discussion and I like your courage to tackling it. Discussing what coud be interpreted as predictors can be intimidating. As usual your discussion was balanced and informative, you did an excellent job. Keep up the good work Erin. Have a great weekend. Larry, Central Valley, Ca.

@LostInThe0zone 3 месяца назад

Back in the day (60s and 70s) US News and World Report always had the money supply report on the last page. At the time, it was one of the most serious economic periodical avaliable.

@ryanchinh1040 3 месяца назад

Retired as soon as possible there is no guarantee people going to live until 65 years.

@RetirementTalk43 3 месяца назад

What if you then live to 90?

@larrywillard844 3 месяца назад

@@RetirementTalk43 that's a combo of Healthy Living and Lucky Lifestyle, and I call my head still having so many hairs for my age "Winning the gene lottery" (TM).

@CalicoCooperFan 3 месяца назад

Thanks for continuing to bring economic indicators and analysis to the personal finance discussion. Great video.

@smartanajones4u 3 месяца назад

This is the best video I’ve seen on the history of the stock market mainly rising vs falling! Im going to share this with my students!

@rogersmith9705 3 месяца назад

Spending time watching your videos is actually investing it! Thanks Erin! ❤👍

@j10001 3 месяца назад

Thanks, Erin! Appreciate the discussion of graphs

@christiansailor2880 3 месяца назад

Thanks!

@nathanyoder4509 3 месяца назад

My fitness tracker broke unfortunately😂, but they can be really useful in monitoring daily activity! Super interesting topic Erin! Thanks for sharing!

@user-er4xg1rz6w 3 месяца назад

Great insight by Attorney Holzhauer regarding commercial real estate loans. He made it very easy to understand the problem.

@redstorm1655 3 месяца назад

Great video! I believe this is one of your top 5 videos. Nice job

@lellegatorable 3 месяца назад

Good info. I am always intrigued by 5 year notes. Thanks for the up-to-date info, guest attorney.

@jasondavison1401 3 месяца назад

Very good video! Regardless of any recession indicators, we all have experienced higher: fuel, food, utility bills, insurance for auto and home, and service! Something must give…

@JohnPMiller 3 месяца назад

You forgot to mention property taxes.😞

@frankish5314 3 месяца назад

Yup recessions happen, it is the natural order of things.

@HighCountryRambler 3 месяца назад

"Something must give"? I plan on doing my part with as many people I can bring along to make changes in this Novembers elections. The rise in prices of goods and services is from spending like drunken sailors (inflation) with 34 Trillion debt WE MUST MAKE THE CHANGES, because the people spending OUR money will not.

@alexaber9786 3 месяца назад

@@HighCountryRambler Before Trump, the national debt was around $16 trillion. After Trump $24 trillion, Trump caused a recession. There was 15% unemployment in the last year Trump was President. Biden, like Obama, increased fiscal spending due to an inherited recession. After Biden whereabouts of $34 trillion. Both primary options suck on the national debt. Anyone who doesn't admit this is a liar. #2 the inflation. The primary reason of inflation is the money supply the federal reserve/treasury allows into the market. The secondary reason of inflation is that businesses decided to increase the margin of their profit when providing goods and services. The government has minimal influence over the primary cause of inflation. The government has some control over the secondary cause, but that requires the Republicans and Democrats to work together. For us older people, we can remember back to a time when that used to happen (before Obama). The parties working together / compromising doesn't really happen anymore. Also, as a final thought, please look into what the federal discretionary budget is spent on. Your last sentence in your comment implies that you've never done this. It might be quite enlightening. For the record, I am not a Democrat or Republican. I hate both parties.

@mthlay15 3 месяца назад

@@frankish5314 natural order or a symptom of capitalism?

@Ethan-bu2zy 3 месяца назад

Completely agree Erin! It’s time in the market vice timing the market. Get in as early as possible and stay as long as possible.

@elvispresley3234 3 месяца назад

As a 61 yr old private investor (for what that's worth) who retired at 48, I completely disagree. It is easy to see when the overall market is down. At that point buy into a market index fund. Pay attention to more purchasing opportunities as time goes by when the market dips. Pay close attention to when you want to retire and time your exit as best you can. I have seen many fellow investors make gains via long hold, only to be hurting because the market was down when they needed to either take profit or receive dividends. Timing is vital, but it is not rocket science.

@josephstevens9888 3 месяца назад

Interesting video Erin. I always thought of wealth management as a marathon, and not as a sprint. In the long run, it will pay off. Take care and I look forward to your next release!

@wendynoble6545 3 месяца назад

Thanks, this is interesting.

@coziii.1829 3 месяца назад

I have 3 annuities I get 10k a month next year it goes up to 20k a month. I buy physical gold and silver as well. And a few more things I do I will not say on here . But I don’t use banks

@AnOldGuy164 3 месяца назад

One day people should learn to properly use phrases. Long term means a time period over which a gain is "guaranteed". For the S&P 500 that is 20 years or more. A market - S&P 500, being down has never been true for investors. At the end of 2022 the S&P 500 was up 13.2% annually over since the start of 2019. Despite the news media reporting times were better than anyone would have expected in the long term. When I started investing in the late 80's I expected 10% annual return. My investments in large cap mutual funds and index funds have returned 12-13% annually over those years. 2008, 2021, and 2022 were unimportant. So is the recent fear mongering.

@MichaelWilliams-ph4ri 3 месяца назад

If you 'retired' before the Great Depression in 1929, when the market was at its peak, the next time you saw it touch that peak was 1954. That's 25 long years of panic and destitution. Some people do not have a long horizon.

@joemiller8029 3 месяца назад

Love the hair! Thanks for your thoughts! Super technical! I never know what to think anymore!

@abrahams.lincoln6749 3 месяца назад

Hair pie?

@lukehanson5320 3 месяца назад

Engagement comment for Erin. Keep up the great work!

@anitaknotts359 3 месяца назад

Great primer on how the economy functions. Also good discussion on the interplay between the economy and the markets!

@araslintakas6810 3 месяца назад

1. I laughed at the comment that many of the best performing portfolios were investors who were dead. That is eye-opening. And 2. I never really thought about the money supply, and did not know what M1 and M2 were (although you hear it often). Thanks for defining it, and thanks for providing a little insight into the current status.

@amjustice 3 месяца назад

Great video and great guest!

@yvesgratton6124 3 месяца назад

Very good and sound advice.

@Fishfood007 3 месяца назад

Reminds me of a quote “don’t just do something stand there”

@Moonstruck89 3 месяца назад

Thanks for putting this together. Perhaps return to office mandates are less to do with productivity and more to do with balloon notes!!

@RyanRDengel 3 месяца назад

Ian is a fantastic lawyer and an ever better guy. Great stuff!

@KLA2789 3 месяца назад

Great video! Love the economic deep dive 👌🏻

@dstevens518 3 месяца назад

Good video. It's definitely a return to the norm, and insurance that inflation gets arrested, which is necessary to drop rates. All good things in the long run. Will the market dip? Maybe, but not likely in an electon year. I'm not pulling anything out, but I'm ready to pile more in if we get a dip next year. Think long term, absolutely. THREE videos this week! We're getting spoiled! lol

@sarahgibbons9737 3 месяца назад

Thanks Erin

@jblaze114 3 месяца назад

early 60s it took off, right around cloward-piven strategy and the war on poverty

@james-kh7oi 3 месяца назад

Erin...nice cover...thanks.

@resoluteprotectorhonoringg2877 3 месяца назад

Thank You for Your insight. This video. I can’t but think that the times are a changin and it’s becoming increasingly more difficult to “figure it out”! Yes. A foundational/ proven strategy is best when, Ya just don’t know.

@JWEATHERSBY 3 месяца назад

I have a running theory right now that we probably need to toss some traditional expectations of market behavior out the window because all of the proof points are from times before the prevalence of social media. Not all market knowledge we've ever built, but a lot of it. The tweets of specific individuals can now move markets at speeds that newspapers never could. Market euphoria and hysteria can spread online much faster than ever before. Once banks run into issues with commercial loans coming due in the next year or so, we'll see things happen at speeds we didn't imagine before because of how strongly social media can cause markets to react. I think the points you're making in this video are spot on, but I do worry about the prevailing thought of the market behaving as it normally does. That's not just pointed at Erin, but anyone that I see making Market commentary right now. The schools of thought have to evolve.

@bobknob8440 3 месяца назад

Stonks only go up. Everything else is smoke to take your money.

@FreeEasyAI 3 месяца назад

Financial crisis? How is that even possible in USA? Especially with the honest, competent, financial genius we now have in the White House?

@SangTalksMoney 3 месяца назад

There’s definitely a lot to be concerned about. Excess savings are dwindling down from consumer bank accounts, too, I hear…

@dickgrayson5049 3 месяца назад

Thanks for all your content! Love it

@BoxOfRain 3 месяца назад

Very interesting video - I really enjoyed it. I think that there is good reason to be concerned about commercial real estate - for the reasons mentioned. Balloon payments will come due and higher interest rates will hurt a lot of marginal owners. The M2, not so much - the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet after pumping it up with three trillion dollars during the pandemic - that's why we saw the market skyrocket during what should have been very grim days in 2020 and 2021 when nobody was working. I also think that some banks will be suffering when they see themselves holding 2 and 3 percent mortgages for 30 years after interest rates normalize.

@bricejohnson4272 3 месяца назад

You forgot to mention that, even if you want to short the banks that are being affected by this or take your money out from the companies and bank that are being affected. It’s already too late. The market has already punished these banks big-time and it’s not worth the squeeze.

@vinyl1Earthlink 3 месяца назад

There was an article in Barron's that said the stock market hadn't looked deeply enough into the commercial real estate portfolios of these banks, and many of the loans were perfectly good and could be refinanced when they come due. Banks are not as stupid as people think, and most of them manage their book of loans responsibly.

@miragexl007 3 месяца назад

Hmm. War, boarder issues, pushing to pay Much college debt (among other things) taxing the higher ups more who kind of control Wages and prices of things, etc. This could be another rough 4 years...got to go to the grocery store now....ughh. But look at positives.. Waiting to see when or if the Stock market drops in the next year or so, And will bump up my 20% to 25% in retirement... I'm tempted now, but I know better in this year.

@alexanderson6514 3 месяца назад

Ian nailed it - it's only a matter of time until the bills are due for the corporations! It'll be interesting to see how this pans out as 'work from home' continues to expand.

@alanwong8307 3 месяца назад

On the commercial bank credit topic, they can always repurpose the office buildings to apartment buildings (there is a huge demand with housing shortage). Sure, there are hurdles with each city's zoning restrictions, but I'm pretty sure that the cities will weigh the trade-offs of many real estate companies going under and hurting the city with vacant office lots versus rezoning and recouping some value instead.

@maryd253 3 месяца назад

I’ve been working for two years to convert main level from commercial to residential. The upstream is residential. The city is blocking me. Everything is geared for the big boys, not the small mom and pop owners. Our government officials are screwing us. They are not our friends. Words, words, words. They are filled with words. Then the mom and pop owner sells and then a corporation buys the property and converts it.

@freeroamer9146 3 месяца назад

After a long pause I've been considering re-entering the stock market with both a domestic and an international index fund. But with the market currently at all time highs and the economy being what it is, the risk premium tells me to stay with my T-Bills (for now).

@Cbor322 3 месяца назад

If the government hadn’t redefined the definition of recession, the Bank of American article would have been correct

@JBoy340a 3 месяца назад

Great presentation. One thing I wonder about is M2/M3 is the ease at which people can now move money in and out of different instruments. With the click of a mouse you can buy and sell equities, options, etc. and move money in your bank accounts in and out of investments. This was not the case just 15 or so years ago where you had to run a check over the brokerage firm, wait for it to clear, and then purchase.

@ZaneDouglas1 3 месяца назад

Always look for the opportunities that arise from these challenges. What I see is an opportunity to by REITs that hold commercial, retail, and office properties, which will be available at depressed prices (not REITs that hold the bank notes, but the physical properties). Eventually this asset class will rebound (office buildings may be converted to housing or cloud data centers, etc.), so if you can hold these REITs long-term, it’s an additional asset class that would be good to hold when stocks take a downturn.

@bigfoot14eee99 3 месяца назад

The market has been very good to me over the years. Possibly the only occurrence of me 'market timing' was in 2008 when I doubled my contributions. While my colleagues were crying and stopping contributions, or worse selling out, I cleaned up. That being said, IMHO we are experiencing irrational exuberance 2.0. The underlying economy is simply not strong enough to justify the current pricing. So, for now I will keep the lions share of my liquid investments in money market.

@MeltingRubberZ28 3 месяца назад

Damn Erin. Making me consider yanking my money in my taxable brokerage (retirement...I dont touch, cost average forever). I've made a bunch in the brokerage and ideally, i was going to put that money towards an airbnb in the next few years.

@luisalonso3018 3 месяца назад

Thank you for the insightful video. I agree100% it is almost impossible to know what comes ahead. Another strong argument for a recession is the inverted yield curve. Maybe you can do a series of videos with the positive arguments for the current rally to continue (expected lower interests rates, AI hype, low unemployment, an electoral year, good GDP growth...). Thanks also for reminding us that timing the market is almost impossible, and it is better to just invest for the long run riding the ups and downs in the safety of index funds or ETFs.

@CharlesBallowe 3 месяца назад

How much of the shift is attributable to people moving money to asset classes that lock in rates higher than checking/savings? (Whether corporate or individual accounts, short term funds in treasuries, CDs, money markets, etc are all paying significantly higher than cash.)

@pete3579 3 месяца назад

There are too many signs saying that this is not the time to buy into the market for a long term position. Cash and swing trading for now

@youvasquez 3 месяца назад

commercial office loan defaults have been reported by Trends Journal along time ago when no one was emphasizing this. Its a little too late.

@fredswartley9778 3 месяца назад

Nice and interesting video. It's always good to be reminded to keep a long term perspective when investing. It's encouraging to know that the market always gives positive returns over a 20 yr period. What is your take on international stock index funds? You should do a video on that sometime.

@santameyer-nandi8759 3 месяца назад

The attorney is right - commercial real estate is far weaker right now than is being publicly let on.

@mobilecommunicationsnetwor5268 3 месяца назад

Have you viewed Martin Armstrong's work. He has a daily blog and uses his computer systems attract every money flow for forecasting.

@michelleblake6853 3 месяца назад

Im seeing a LOT of finance videos saying exactly this lately.

@CalmerThanYouAre1 3 месяца назад

Both real estate and stock market prices are fairly unstable. However, rents and dividends from high-quality blue chip companies are very stable. Just keep buying and watch that cash flow grow quarter over quarter through all the ups and downs! 👍🏻

@methos-ey9nf 3 месяца назад

There will definitely be a bailout of some sort. Since we also have an affordable housing crises, one of the very obvious solutions will be lobbying to re-zone the maps so the buildings can be converted into residential spaces.

@barnabusdoyle4930 3 месяца назад

Another part of the money supply that no one ever seems to talk about are lines of credit. Reserve fractional lending lets banks lend out many multitudes higher than their held assets. With the introduction and accessibility of credit cards, the money supply increased. In March or 2020, the required assets for banks to hold to lend out money was dropped to 0. Thus we saw a huge expansion of the money supply during the pandemic resulting in consumer debt being at all time highs. This is where a large chunk of inflation came from.

@kenyonbissett3512 3 месяца назад

Also look at the Federal Reserve overnight lending rate and the amount being loaned to financial institutions.. I agree, invest for the long term. The best hands off approach, which is best for the average person, is index investing through a company that has a low expense ratio

@j10001 3 месяца назад

Ok I was half listening at one point and found myself very confused by the dude talking at length in the middle of your video! I thought it was an ad, but there was no skip ad button 😂

@youvasquez 3 месяца назад

I get it that long term it works out as it has done for me but when youre at the retirement age or your goals are approaching then timing is important. Im retired so I have moved more money into stable funds like money markets but still kept some in equities. I told my son to invest his 401k in riskier or growth stocks since he has a 40 year horizon. What do you think?

@EricMoore790 3 месяца назад

Erin ❤

@barnabusdoyle4930 3 месяца назад

People need to understand how the dollar as the global reserve currency has been a huge boon to our equity markets. As countries needing to do trade in dollars had huge supplies of dollars, they needed somewhere to park those funds. The stock markets was that vehicle. With the increasing trend of dedollarization happening now, our stock market is likely to hit an all time high, and never touch that nimble again as entities divest from western assets and move into a different vehicle. They always tell you to never try to predict a stocks forward performance based on its past performance, yet we do that with the entire stock market. At some point it will not be providing eternal gains anymore.

@user-yb5bg8im5g 3 месяца назад

''money continues to be printed'' and that is the problem. a fiat currency that is chasing too few goods, compounded by unfettered immigration, ''forgiven'' debt, and on and on. commercial default is on the upswing, CC debt and bancruptcy is on the the rise, and on and on. ''the center can not hold.'' at 65, i got out of the market 5 years ago. i don't need the money or the stress. headed to 100 acres of off grid. good luck to you and yours. if you are just starting out, consider: HOME SCHOOL ON A HOMESTEAD. i think you will be more fullfilled and content in the long run.

@robertnicholson771 3 месяца назад

Time IN the market is much more powerful than TIMING the market. Just ask all the mom and pop millionaires who lived below their means and stayed invested.

@larrywillard844 3 месяца назад

M2 mystery? Aren't some buying gold, real estate, and jumping into the market. Others depleting savings to pay rent & groceries, and credit cards charging over 25%?

@darrenmatthews1667 3 месяца назад

Full liquidation is usually a bad idea. Remember to rebalance when your portfolio starts to get lopsided. Avoid herd mentality. I try to avoid the stocks that get all the attention of the moment. 5% on treasuries is a good return compared to current P/E ratios which has caused me to lighten up a bit on equities and increase short term treasury exposure. I'm prepared for future opportunities. Equities will go up with inflation as well so long term it is a good inflation hedge. 1996 was "irrational exuberance". Market didn't crash until 2000 and when it crashed it was still above those "exuberant" levels. It will come down at some point but you will never know when because it is all about everyone changing their mind at the same time. The market will stay irrational longer than you'll stay solvent.

@caddie1a 3 месяца назад

I think we need to define ‘long term’ because it matters as a person gets older. Is ‘long term’ measured until death or when someone needs the money? I was taught long term is 25 years or more because the market has never had a losing 25 year period, including the Great Depression. Understanding ‘long term’ is one of the keys to investing imo.

@robertewalt7789 3 месяца назад

As one gets older, one manages his money for his heirs, in the long run.

@rochester3 3 месяца назад

no body is long term, watch what i say but they dont do as they say and end up selling 6 months later@@robertewalt7789

@andyholder6039 3 месяца назад

Market just goes higher

@mikebridges20 3 месяца назад

Erin, nice change from our typical consumer-based tactical content. I'm right with you; invest in the market and LEAVE IT ALONE. Right now my wife and I are figuring out what, if any, funds we need to pull from our stock investments. We have one annuity fund (yeah, probably shouldn't have gotten it 10 years ago, but here we are) that we're getting monthly payouts for the rest of our lives, and so far it's looking like we're just going to stay the course (we've also got about 2-3 years of cash reserves for any market corrections).

@FroisonControl 3 месяца назад

the only certain thing is that nvidia is printing money

@user-zo2ge3oe8d 3 месяца назад

Glad someone besides me sees that. It’s like I’m living in crazy world with unceasing doom and gloom while literally no one is talking about this money machine. Oh well I’m sure no one will read your comment

@Johnny_Utah333 3 месяца назад

Do you invest in silver or gold?

@arar983 3 месяца назад

we have been in a recession for 1.5 years now, unemployment and GDP just seem juiced. Layoffs are impacting more than just tech now, and inflation has most below upper middle class suffering and working multiple jobs. We have just normalized that as "side hustles." Homes are out of reach for most now due to prices and rates.

@ezmaass 3 месяца назад

Regarding money supply, I don't believe there's a huge cause for concern here. We had truly unprecedented amounts of money being pumped into the economy during the first few years of COVID. So much so that it made the "Great Recession" programs, like TARP, look extremely tame. But it also caused extreme inflation, and thus, the Fed is eager to see that money supply dwindle a bit - it removes purchasing power from consumers who are driving hot inflation. Banks have been reporting upon the "draw down" of savings for quite some time. Now, the real concern might be what happens when consumers have drawn down all of their excess COVID money but haven't recalibrated their spending? That's when we see spending more heavily shift to credit cards and loans, followed by defaults. People never learn, and this won't be the time things are "different" either. So, there will be economic pain... but, in this case, I believe businesses know it's coming. We'll see when and how it hits the market, but for anyone who's an "investor" (not a trader), it shouldn't matter much. You just keep your head down and keep buying!

@brucelatham6636 3 месяца назад

I watched the 10 year treasury rate. This also affects the value of the dollar. If the rate keeps going up on the treasury note the value of the dollar will decrease. There several ways you could invest. You can buy treasuries at the high yield and hope the fed cuts rates and you can sell them at a profit. Or if you were smart and bought foreign currency with a strong dollar you could sell that at a profit. Or if you just leave it in a savings account and wait for the market to tank then buy. It's all a crapshoot

@Mr._Rick 3 месяца назад

M2 supply lowering is by design of Powell and Yeldon to get rid of the excess rise from 2020.

@gregnicholson689 3 месяца назад

Eh, I think the decline in the money supply is a function of the Fed unwinding quantitative easing. Commercial real estate is a problem, but not sure it would be on the scale of what happened with residential real estate back in the 2007-2008 time frame.

@stevensmiddlemass2072 3 месяца назад

Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly

@rogermorris9747 3 месяца назад

US money supply is less important than it used to because the world economy is linked today & there are more dollars outside the US than in. However, concern about the shrinking money supply may be misplaced because a key factor in how to look at it is velocity, how often a dollar is turned over in the economy. In 2007, before the 2008 financial (monetary) crisis the US money supply was $800BB with an $14.5TT economy. This meant every dollars turned over about 17.5 times a year. As you pointed out the money supply recently peaked at $21TT on an economy of about $24TT. This means each dollar turned over barely more than once in a year. I believe velocity is a sign of how dynamic an economy is and the US economy has been in a rut since 2008. If the economy keeps growing and the money supply shrinks (assuming the growth isn't because of government spending) it means velocity is picking up which would mean the economy is becoming more dynamic.

@JosephDickson 3 месяца назад

That dip could be stock options paid out to executives and the 1% 😬

@joethecomputerguy1 3 месяца назад

Hmmm, one doesn't have to be 100% right twice to beat the market. I am guessing you haven't looked into TAA investing yet. One can look at Sharpe and Sortino ratios but that might be putting the cart before the horse. I did bring this up in the past. It has served me very very well. Did I say I retired at 52? If you want to know the person I follow for this let me know and I'll send you an email.

@Moonstruck89 3 месяца назад

One concerning number that would be worth exploring in one of your future videos is that it took almost 25 years for the market to recover and go back to pre-crash peak during the great depression of 1929. The market didn't recover until 1954. That means if a 35 year old today were to experience something like that, they would be 60 by the time the market recovers again. Hopefully it won't happen cause as you pointed out, the conditions today are vastly different. It's worth considering this nonetheless.

@AchimDrescher 3 месяца назад

Historically, you are absolutely right. Buy an asset and sit on it was a good strategy in hindsight. Will this work going forward? The last 70 to 80 years have seen an ever increasing debt bubble. Contrary to popular believe money is not created by governments, but by banks issuing debt. We can probably say that we are at the peak of the debt bubble. There is simply no more room for more debt. Hence going forward there is a good chance that there will be less money slashing around the economy. For the USD it's even more complex as the dollar is used internationally with trillions of USD denominated loans issued internationally in the Euro Dollar market. These loans are also declining and that sucks money out of the domestic market. Whilst the US market has benefited from the increase in Euro Dollar debt creating enormous liquidity; now with a decreasing international market liquidity might be sucked out of the US markets and that is not good for Asset Values.

@murraypassarieu9115 3 месяца назад

Recessions are natural but the US has the best economy in the world since the pandemic and it's not really close. So much money was dumped into the economy during the pandemic, it's natural that the money supply would contract.

@michaelswami 3 месяца назад

Curious: None of those M2 declines occurred, however in a modern economy with expansive availability of credit. I don’t even think Diners Club existed at that time.

@osarjeant 3 месяца назад

How much of the money supply has shifted to crypto?

@RecklessRayDinero 3 месяца назад

Index funds at this climate are just wealth preservation…you’re letting the buying power, inflation isn’t going down.

@JohnPMiller 3 месяца назад

I don't worry about it, but I have noticed plenty of empty commercial real estate near me, both office space and retail. How can they pay their loans and property taxes with no income?