The Future of the Submarine - Emerging Threats, Sensors & Transparent Oceans 

I have tried to keep the number of bad jokes to a minimum - this is a serious deep dive. More seriously, this isn't the first time we've seen predictions of the submarine's upcoming demise, and thus far they've continued to dominate despite each technological change thrown at them. That said, there are a wide array of developments on the horizon, and they may force submarine forces the world over to adapt to survive or thrive. Hope you all enjoy, and I'll be back with you again next week

You can't start a Sunday without a australian man explaining military logistics and economics

There are two types of warships. Submarines and targets.

I was working with the Singapore university remote sensing lab back in the 90s, and there was an Australian researcher who was studying the surface characteristics of undersea current flows (ocean floor currents). His software was actually detecting the ocean surface "choppiness", based on how it scattered the SAR signal. But he was annoyed that his software kept picking up spurious flows across various parts of the ocean where there weren't any undersea features that would lead to sea floor currents. Finally one of his American compatriots leaned over and said, "Shhh. Those are submarines."

Ah yes, time to talk about the future of the Moskva after her promotion to submarine

We need a 1 hour PowerPoint on how Perun optimizes his workflow scheduling & what fuels him - materially and beyond. ❤️

“Practical submarines only started to surface”. Clever pun!

I get irrationally excited for this channel each sunday

It's crazy to think it's been 2 years since I saw your first military PowerPoint. It's also crazy to see just how much your presentations have improved in that time. You really do an outstanding job with these presentations.

Wearing aviators inside a nuclear submarine is such a power move, holy hell.

Perun needs to make a military logistics simulation wargame centered around the struggle between Kiwiland and Emutopia.

Great episode! As a retired submariner I try to follow the developments in the world I am very familiar with. Admittedly, it isn't as familiar as it once was. Submarines and detection systems are a quantum leap ahead of what they were in the years I spent sitting in sonar hunting 'bad guys (77'-95'). In fact I wonder if sonar itself is soon to be obsolete. Or at best, you won't be listening for the sound of a submarine but rather the hole in the ocean where there is no sound. We did have some sneaky little tricks to find those 'bad guys'. We often would look in areas of heavy biologic activity. Something stirred up those fish and hiding in a noisy area was a common strategy. Lumbering old merchants were also suspect as a boomer could use that high noise field as cover while said merchant transited through their patrol box. But the real trick was to catch them doing something that made just the wee tiny noise that only lasted a few seconds. Catch a 'bad guy' doing some housekeeping evolution and you basic had him by the short hairs. Guess that may not be true anymore.

Hooray!!! Sunday can start now!

One of my co-workers used to serve on a submarine. One thing in particular that was very surprising is learning that shrimp are very noisy underwater.

This man's upload schedule is impressively regular.

Emutopia vs Kiwiland The goose that lays the golden eggs

Never in my life have I been as excited for PowerPoints as Perun has made me 😂

The Mk14 was so hilariously bad, if Drachinifel hadn't already done so, i'd make a video about it.

Something I find annoying is that people frame discussions of a platform’s viability in terms of the capabilities of a sensor, weapon, etc. that might target it, ignoring that those systems need to be on platforms of their own, and will be targeted in turn. I very much appreciate that you highlight that more capable weapons and sensors make submarines more dangerous too.

Some deep material today. Thanks!

As long as there are “layers” in the oceans, detection will be difficult. I’m proud to have helped build the USA Nuclear Subs back in the 1980’s. A few are STILL in active service.

That Kiwiland flag goes hard!

"This boat has the means to end this hideous war, in a definitive and elegant manner" Matias Torres

My skipper had a saying on fast boats. "We are the tip of the spear, and the spear strikes deepest. It is also the first to break, we shall strike hard." Basically, you get one shot, or your dead do your job right. EDIT: You are dead for the grammar nazi.

Well shoot. Now that you reminded me about the Mark 14 torpedo, I have to watch Drachinifel's video all over again. Thanks Perun.

Me when submarines:😍(I am from the city of Kiel, where the German U-Boots are built) Let's have some tea and enjoy the powerpoint-man speaking ^w^

Perun’s washing machine going off every few minutes has truly become a staple of the channel at this point

Imagine an hour long PowerPoint presentation on defense economics being the highlight of your Sunday morning? As in, the thing that you look forward to all weekend and makes you get out of bed early on Sunday.

Gold Coast Australia checking in for Perun's report!

38:36 God tier acronym

I have been hospitaliced for almost 2 weeks, starting to crawl up the walls, thank you for distracting me from it for an hour! truly apriciated.

I for one look forward to the sequel about what submarines everyone has.

"They're all pressurized metal containers" overlooks the brilliant advances of OceanGate, which was neither metal nor, ultimately, pressurized.

This is timely. Thailand just decided to continue it's submarine program with the Chinese diesels. Lemme explain : We have had submarines before in the form of the Matchanu class subs, built in Japan before ww2. They were decommissioned after the war due to obsolescence and lacking spares. The Royal Thai Navy would attempt to procure submarines two more times without success. Fast forward to 2016, the military junta under Prayut Chan-O-Cha opened a bid for sub procurement. Many companies from all around the world submitted proposals but for the given budget, they could only offer two boats, except China. They offered us an irresistable deal, buy two get one free along with spare parts support for 8 years, and other weapon systems that the west wouldn't sell like smart mines, whatever those are supposed to be. So the government took out a loan for the program (thai government fiscal things, not a big deal). The contract for one boat was signed with the Chinese Shipbuilding and Offshore company (CSOC), and the keel of the S-26T submarine for the RTN was signed. The S-26T is basically a Yuan with minor changes. A major problem occurred. CSOC did not get an export agreement from MTU, the German company who were to supply the diesels per the contract. And thus, work was stopped.The issue was brought to the RTN's attention in 2018, four days after paying the second installment of cash for the boat. Political hot potato ensued, and then covid hitso things went away for a bit. The Chinese offered the CHD620 to replace the MTU diesels which they couldn't get at this point, despite the current Thai PM going to Germany and talking to Olaf Scholz about it. The CHD620 is a Chinese designed and made diesel engine for submarines. It hasn't seen any use on subs other than on the Pakistani subs which they took delivery of in late April , so the RTN was sceptical about it. After the engine was certified by a 3rd party in about 2022, the RTN asked to send a delegation to double check the diesels. CSOC responded thus : "No, it's a waste of time.". There would be proposals to solve the issues periodically such as canceling it and getting a refund, changing the contract to a frigate or a few OPVs , or buying fertilizer (there being a shortage of fertilizer at the time due to the russo ukrainian war) but none of them went anywhere. In the intervening time, the navy did funny things with the submarine budget, diverting part of it to buy the Landing Transport Ship HTMS Chang, part of the reasoning being for her to act as a submarine tender...for some reason., and started building support infrastructure for the subs. Then, they folded the frigate budget back into the submarine budget so now the frigate Bhumibol Adulyadej doesn't have a sister ship. Parliment did not pass a new budget for the second ship of the class, tentatively named the Anandamahidol after King Rama the 8th. And the government has had to pay interest on the loan amounting to 27mil USD. After much political hot potato, the Defense minister took a flight to china to discuss the matter with CSOC. He came home empty handed it seems. Reps from CSOC came to negotiate with us between the 14th and 15th. On the 16th, the Defense Ministry announced that the submarine program shall continue with CSOC giving us 5mil USD worth of spares and training equipment. Delivery is to be expected in 2028. This is one cursed procurement cycle.

I, absolutely, love that you used the Laser Kiwi flag.

Luckily I have already sub-scribed to this channel...

"Finding and destroying a missile truck that is also underwater" That reminds me of the North Koran basing option of a shipping container at the bottom of a lake.

A thoroughly enjoy the way that you stop and analyze and don't just do quick takes. Waiting a few weeks for REAL analysis is worth every minute.

Honestly, the 'waiting until there is some more information available' approach seems much wiser for videos focused on analysis rather than providing information. Just my supportive 2 cents to feed the algorithm

Finally time to enjoy some slideshows

I would like to add, that enemy ships lost to unknown causes, were attributed to the USN submarine fleet. In reality, RAAF & US PBY Catalinas' extensive mining operations undoubtedly killed hundreds more ships than they're credited for.

Always love seeing my weekly dose of defence economics every Sunday

Underwater sea drones seem like a distinct possibility

Perun is my favorite drug.

Verify our range to target. One ping only.

Looking forward to more submarine videos. I think they're often overlooked, despite being such fascinating and unique pieces of military technology.

00:00 - 11:48 My god, that was incredible! A tour de force summary of the history of submarine development!! Admirably done, Perun, man!!

Perun, no pressure but we are all waiting for your video while making coffee

I’ve been waiting for this one. We’re a Navy family and have a submariner vet in the group. Thank you!!

29:33 the longer I look at this photo the funnier it becomes 😂 But its a great snapshot of the vibe at the time 😁

Give us some more arctic content! I, for one, loved it.

Thank you Perun, I listen to you every Sunday as I cook dinner for the family, it's one of my favourite parts of the week!

You made the right call on the Kharkiv thing. I don't turn to you for breaking news, I like deep, reasoned analysis that is relevant to current events, but doesn't have to getting scoops on developing situations. I really enjoyed listening to Jahara Matisek talking about Irregular Warfare on Silicon Curtain. I'd also like to hear your take on the topic one day.

OMG, the Kiwiland Standard is AWESOME! Laser eyes! I almost choked on my coffee @perun!!!

To quote RA2's Typhoon attack sub: Checking periscope.

Thanks again, subs 101 is normally a re-tread of the same old stuff. As usual, you greatly exceeded any expectations I had.

Sharks: the original 'cope cage" necessitator.

19:45 That photo is pretty interesting, it's a Seawolf Class Submarines acoustics.

Hahaha HMKS Jonah Lomu! Love it!

Love your weekly videos Perun. Well presented, researched, informative, interesting with a nice splash of humour. Keep up the great work.🙌

The best part of Sunday afternoon is waking up to a new Perun video (even though he makes them go live on Monday through international timezone tomfoolery).

Recently been obsessed with the Ohio class SSGN’s and the utility of conventionally armed submarines, this vid could not have come at a better time

Detailed and informative 👌🏼

Great stuff Perun, as always.

@PerunAU busting out some absolute gems of puns in the first 2 minutes. Seriously mate, if you ever decide to leave the defense economics industry, you have a bright future in stand-up.

What makes the photo of the reactor great isn't the mustaches or sunglasses worn inside, it's that they told the guy without a mustache that he wasn't cool enough to be in the photo, but he executed a high tier photo bomb to get in the picture behind everybody else.

Excellent work, as always.

Hope this one does well. Fascinating subject and presented expertly as always. Thanks for your continued efforts!

51:30 Dangerous assumption. GER + NOR are working on sub launched anti aircraft missiles IDAS, should be ready for U212-CD. BTW, stealth shaped double hull of U212-CD is designed to defeat enemy sensors.

Here we go!!

Great presentation as usual!

Great episode as usual Perun

I recently read an MIT paper on WiFI signal disruption being used to train an AI on people in a room. First they combined cameras and people walking or posing in a room. They fed the AI the WiFi signal detection data at the same time as video feed. After sufficient training time, the scientists took away the video feed and asked the AI to represent the poses of people in the room as they changed positions. The AI totally nailed it. This is very easy to find via a Google search and there more coverage than just the MIT article. That is some “Batman” level tech. Imagine police or military being able to track people (you) in the room you’re in just by detecting disruptions in the WiFi signal as you move around! Not only is the ocean likely transparent by 2050, what you’re doing in the bathroom might be too!

The Transparent Ocean is a bit of a misnomer, the ocean is not really one thing, its a dynamic system of ever changing temperature, density layers with multidirectional flows and acoustic characteristics... in terms of signal processing its always been a nightmare and will continue to be for some time... Small drone like subs that can act as remote sensors that switch to a torpedo when locating a target is probably the great change that is coming with the "Main" Sub being more like an underwater aircraft carrier/tender and possibly fully remote as well.

Thanks again Perun. Another riveting and well informed PowerPoint.

Yes! Please expand on these types of topics. Much appreciated.

In the future, we will all live in one and it will be a certain color.

I am a submarine! A friendly little sub chugging along the ocean floor! Yes I love the water it is very nice!❤❤❤

The extrem high standard of your videos that you create again and again and again is just awesome! Thank you so much for this excellent content!

It's like when your favorite band covers another of your favorite bands. Perun and H I Sutton.

Hi Perun

Was worth listening to even just to hear the HMAS Rankin reference -- we went off to find that video and it was great to watch. Thanks for the reference Perun and we really liked this episode and analysis as well.

Great video really enjoyed it

I knew those damn Emus would be up to their usual shenanigans again. I know it is all to upset the global trade of lamb chops. I don't know why the super powers let them constantly get away with this behavior. #StandWithKiwiland #StopEmuAggression

The understanding in most military intelligence circles is that SSBNs stay close to home and are usually under an umbrella of local surface warships and aircraft most of the time. The British and French SSBNs stay in a million square kilometre box in deep water in the Bay of Biscay, the Russian SSBNs operate in the far north of the Arctic Ocean and just off the coast of the Sakhalin and Kuril islands and the US fleet operate near Hawaii and Pearl Harbor to cover the Pacific area and around Newfoundland for their Atlantic patrol area. There's no tactical or strategic benefit for them to go far from home given the published range of SSBN missiles.

An hour long video that kept me awake all throughout, well done mate on making this so interesting. Love your work. Subscribed and liked

Super-interesting! Thanks Perun. ❤️

Emutopia is at it again. Slava Kiwiland!

Itd be interesting to hear some about how Emutopia's emerging alliance with Aukustan will affect its balance with Kiwilandia.

at work. refreshing furiously waiting for the new Perun video to drop.

It's just not really Sunday until Perun uploads.

Man, Surcouf is such a weird ship. She carried a plane too, like some ace combat boss fight

So, Kiwiland and Emutopia flag patch merch?

Great video and am looking forward to any follow up videos you bring out. Thanks.

I very much enjoyed this weeks video and I'll be back next week, no matter what the subject is. That said: A complete breakdown of the current and future submarine picture would be popcorn worthy content!

“Blasting the Soviet anthem on repeat!” Doing that from 1.000 meters of depth, would be quite the statement!

Alot of this I knew already, but getting to understand why there are people saying the oceans could be transparent was very interesting, and as I suspected the case for the obsolescence of the submarine is overblown. I think the main factor for the people pushing it is really that subs are very expensive and somewhat worthless in peacetime, which is the majority of time. So if you want to free up a few hundred billion dollars over the next decade you could point out that we haven't been using them anyway and they'll have no advantage in the future. This is a alot of truth mixed with alot of wishful thinking but it makes sense why people might end up in that camp. That said, if anything the West needs MORE subs not fewer, in a shooting war there is no substitute for subs.

Great work! Would love to see a continuation of this topic.

Consistently fascinating and thought provoking mate. Well done. 👍👍

Regarding how ocean is huge, onceni heared that if submarine is 10 km away, you could detect only 50%. With 20km distance it drops only to 10%