Of course these guys are saying there is not going to be a crash one is a realtor the other in the mortgage business BOTH MAKING MONEY ON THIS BUBBLE.The 05' 06' housing bubble started the same way creating a frenzy with home buyers saying the same thing that is being said now SUPPLY and DEMAND creating a FOMO in home buyers with low interest rates made it even easier.And we saw what happened in 2008 2009 all the way to the bottom in 2012.WHAT WENT UP CAME DOWN HARD.All these mortgages on overpriced homes values again will drop people will walk when they owe more than the home is worth. They will not be able to refinance if the rates come they will owe to much on the home.The interest rates had nothing to do with it the home is too expensive OVERPRICED not worth it.People need to STOP STOP STOP BUYING!
I know it's fun to reply to video titles but we actually gave you the data that would have prevented saying silly things like "overpriced homes values again will drop people will walk when they owe more than the home is worth." I'll give you the short version: 40% of homes owned free and clear - not walking The next 36% owe less than 60% of the homes value - not walking The vast majority of the remainder have 20% or more equity - not walking away from anything AND the 60% with mortgages... 58% under 4%, 19% under 5%, 86% of all loans are under 6% Simple math tells you that a person with a ton of equity, financed with a 30 year fixed rate, with a payment far below replacement rents....will not be walking away from their home unless there is literally no other choice....
The values are going to drop they are not going to have all that equity anymore.As I said before the interest rate has nothing to do with it the homes are overpriced period.And alot of the mortgages are sub prime FHA 3% down credit score less than 620.You know as well as I do if the home prices had not come down like they did and kept going up till today nobody would be able to buy a home except the very very rich.@@TheEducatedHomebuyer
@@EMPTORADVOCATE-gt4rb If I had a dollar for everytime a crash advocate told us, "just wait", I'd be sitting on a golf course enjoying an extremely comfortable retirement. We'll continue to be here....the commenters telling us that crash is just around the corner come and go. If you're still here in a year, we'll be happy to continue the conversation.
@TheEducatedHomebuyer. I give you a lot of credit for suffering these fools that just don't really know anything about the residential real estate market beyond what some clown told them...
No crash = bullish on real estate? 🤔 How about, not bearish on RE?... You could even watch the video and find out what we actually expect over the next few years...
@@TheEducatedHomebuyer "what we actually expect over the next few years..." is Re will crash and even more than in 08... you know why? because it is even bigger bubble than it was in 08... you guys ( RE agents etc) were telling fairytales about low inventory and high demands and how it affects prices for several years now... but suddenly you became "supply and demand" denier once its not gonna work in your favor... lol... and, BTW, raising "asking prices" youre talking about are set buy RE agents, who want to make more and more commission... not by the market (supply and demand)
🤣🤣🤣🤣 Yes, agents just pick a number, throw it in the MLS and buyers pay it, artificially inflating prices. Supply and demand never dictates prices. Love the insights from the anonymous commenters! I wouldn't want to put my name to that gibberish either. Thanks for commenting!
As an aspiring homeowner, I sadly have to agree with you. Does not matter if there is an economic crisis, population growth in Canada would make it impossible for the housing market to crash.
It's interesting that a lot of people think that there have only been 2 housing markets: 2008 crash and 2020 Covid run-up. I think we're repeating what happened in the 1980s. Home affordability index was the same in 1981 and 2023. Peeps just have to look at the data.
Glad I don't need to sell anytime soon. Bought my new construction home (first time home buyer) in Irvine back in 2021. At the time I figured I might be losing value for the first couple of years, due the pandemic. However, my plan was to stay put for atleast 6-8 years so I was comfortable with my home value potentially dropping in the short term. I was in it longterm....man, was I dead wrong! ..but I'm happy I was wrong :)
It certainly was a mystery at the outset of the pandemic what it would mean for housing but once gov't went full bore with the stimulus, it was nowhere but up. Congrats on getting in at lower prices and MUCH lower rates. Hopefully we see some movement where more people get another shot at a good entry point!
I realized no point in trying to educate a crash bro on how supply and demand works. They also have no idea why people would want a place that's not beholden to a landlord. They're not interested in reality.
I was a crash bro once. I still appreciate the crash bros and I listen to them, I’m just a lot wiser about how they look at the data. Basically fool me once…..
Cool story, now try to explain why median new home prices are down -20% YOY over per FRED. The only housing market that is doing relatively well is existing homes and primarily existing home sales near top 20 metros. The rest of the housing market is not doing well at all and to try to paint it as though it’s fine is extraordinarily dishonest.
Median is useless for telling you market direction...median asking price just reached an all time peak, also nothing to get excited about.... Try researching a repeat sales index, there are several, FHFA and Case Shiller being two that are easy to research, you can even find them at FRED....all tell the same story, continued moderate appreciation. The numbers do not support anything you are saying. Even the worst performing markets have inventory below 2019 levels and minor drops in prices. The vast majority of the country in terms of population and land mass continue to see limited inventory and moderate appreciation. We get it, you want lower home prices. Unfortunately, they aren't coming any time soon.
I used to be a loser and clung onto Crash Clowns as prophecies. Now I'm a homeowner that listened to the right advice. Now, all i see are Crash Clowns clout chasing for views. Their contents are for hopeful losers.
@@hangguy209lmao, I love people like you who are too lazy to ask what crash bros like myself are preapproved for in the state we reside. Affordability isn’t an issue even at 7% rates and yet I have to listen to clown acts like yourself who probably couldn’t even afford your own home at these rate levels try to act superior, it’s laughable.
We just show up every week and go where the data takes us. When the direction changes, it will be dictated by the data, not peoples emotions or needs. Thanks for watching and commenting.
"The Housing Market Will NOT Crash, Sorry!" That's what you said in 2008. Nice try son. Prices will NOT crash, but they will adjust by 40% in most areas. Wake up Boomer!
Impressive Matt...a "boomer" joke. Witty AND original. By any measure 40% would be a crash. And it won't be happening based off of data, not your hopes, wishes, needs.
@Raymond - realestatemindset banned me from commenting on his videos - can you ask him why he is HIDING the "new construction" label on the median sales price chart that he has been sharing in his videos recently while straight up telling his viewers that the chart is for existing homes? He has done it in multiple videos now and it's extremely disturbing.
Not surprising. When the data isn't on your side, it's tempting to distort the facts. A little work with the Google machine makes almost anything fact checkable....not sure why anyone would risk their reputation.
@@TheEducatedHomebuyer I'm hoping he just doesn't know that it doesn't include existing and that's it's not intentional. I'm just hoping Raymond will communicate that to him since I have no way to do so lol.
Which video has he done that on? All he talks about now is "new construction" since that is the only thing that has somewhat corrected over the last two years. It's literally all he's got. You should watch the live he did this past Monday when he refreshed the new home sales data on fred and saw that new home prices jumped 7% in a month. It was classic. 🤣
It's a good problem to have. Those on the outside looking in would happily trade places with those of us with the 'cuffs. From folks we talk to, the number seems to be consistently under 6%, with most being willing to make a move if we got back near 5%. Thx for watching!
Unfortunately we are moving more and more into a Have and Have Nots situation. I have buyers that say they're going to wait. They've been waiting for the last 5 years. These new pandemic induced prices are killing them.
Sad but true Tony. Whenever we do the expert interviews, we're eager to see if anyone has insights into what could change the trajectory and improve affordability for those trying to enter the market. We have yet to hear anything promising.
It's everywhere but CA is especially insane. The sad and ironic part is those impacted the most negatively by excessive minimum wage laws are minimum wage employees as many get priced out of even buying from the places they work.
12:33 What I am hearing is the framework which your opinion is predicated depends on someone buying a home and staying in it for years. So yeah, I agree with you. Anytime is a good time to buy under those assumptions. There might not be a housing crash. But this is the most toxic, stagnant, gross market being propped up by a multitude of misleading and ethically dubious policies and business practices. Wouldn’t you agree it is not a good market for someone who doesn’t know where life will take them in the next 10 years, and definitely not good for someone to start trying to invest in real estate for the first time?
Hard to argue with your conclusions. It's not the market any of us want but it is the market we've got. Definitely tough for those trying to enter the market. And DEFINITELY not a market to try and play short term. 5-7 year time horizon at a minimum. If life's uncertain in terms of career, relationship, family, location, better to wait it out for now. Thanks for the most well reasoned comment of the day!
When has there ever been a 10 yr stretch where ppl knew where life would take them? You probably weren't around in the 20s or 60s 70s and early 80s when the economies were bad or social order was dramatically changing.
@@bauttiet.h.u.g.5900 exactly. So buying today, where you have to use gov. programs just to qualify, and average nothing special homes are $400k+… and you have to be prepared to do whatever it takes to get the best paid position…. Any decrease in home value could cripple your ability to sell and leave you in ruins. Housing market won’t crash… but it will ruin people and families. Not something you want to blunder into because a realtor quoted average gains when calculated over 30 years is 4% year over year.
Sellers need to realize Inventory = competition. "My house is worth..." is just nonsense. Home value is unrealized until transacted. I don't recommend selling in 2024 but if you must, this isn't the year you want to fuck around and find out.
@@TheEducatedHomebuyerDid you actually expect this 🤡 to answer you lol ? "Shasow inventory" is right up there with the "airbnb" amd "vacant homes" myth. The most recent joke these guys are trying out is a "silver tsunami" when a bunch of boomers all suddenly start selling at the same time apparently. 🙄
ahhh... are you serious? how about all massive amount of people that can no longer afford the cost of home ownership due to rising inflation, along with a pending recession that will see mass layoff that have already started? I'm seeing big money in my area already unloading properties because they know whats coming. People like yourself don't know when to get up from the blackjack table, refuse to look at the big picture , and make up any excuse possible to keep the party going.
You could actually watch the episode. It's full of facts and data that don't support your conclusions. Yes, affordability sucks. Low affordability isn't what leads to price corrections....or your belief that "big money in your area is already unloading properties..." Prices come down when supply exceeds demand in a MAJOR way. We'll keep explaining it as it unfolds. Come back any time.
@@TheEducatedHomebuyer been hearing “facts and data” as justification for their stance from a lot of people that seem to bend “facts and data” to fit their narrative… by the way, aren’t you two in the real estate business?
@@TheEducatedHomebuyer has nothing to do with my “belief” 5 of my neighbors are selling their 3+ million dollar homes because and I quote from 3 off them “we’re getting out before the music stops… it’s coming”… 3 of them are down sizing the other two are renting and all of them are sitting on piles of cash parked in treasuries along with everyone in their social groups waiting to deploy.. these people are CEO’s, big bankers, and entrepreneurs... the 1% smart money that comes in and buys your house and your neighbors for pennies on the dollar when you get foreclosed on or are forced to sell because you couldn’t stop chasing the bull. I’ll take the word from the horses mouth who make the rules of the game over two snake oil salesmen trying to make a buck off spin.
@@Bgggfdd Appeals to authority....very compelling..."my neighbors own $3M homes, they know something you don't". So interesting that your millionaire neighbors are so open in sharing their finances with you. You're lucky to know such wise people that are so open to mentoring you. 50+ combined years in mortgage and real estate. Come back in 12 months like everyone promises to, and we'll compare notes...your mythical neighbors or two real people that own, invest in and advise real buyers and homeowners about their real estate decisions. It would also help people take you a little more seriously if you didn't have an anonymous handle to match your make believe friends/advisors. Thanks for the help with the channel. We wouldn't be here without people like you.
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Mortgage applications are in the gutter but home prices are going to stay elevated - okay. Do experts like yourselves even bother to look what happened leading up to 2008? In 2006 we had low supply, low unemployment, relatively low mortgage rates, and unaffordable home prices. What does that sound like now? And what do we know happened back then? And please for the love of god, do not write “this time is different, there’s no subprime” the new subprime is 0-1% down payment programs and those who waived inspections. To act like everything is sunshine and rainbows is hilarious when I know both of these hosts are down 20-30% in commissions YOY. Note the sales pitch for you to work with them within the first couple minutes of the video. Conflict of interest much.
Tell that to people that have been waiting for the crash or silver tsunami.... not happening. Thankfully I snapped out of that mentality and jumped in when the rates were low and snapped me up a good property without waiving anything or overpaying... just takes patience and being ready for opportunities when they come up.
@@bernitup6492funny enough in watching the video further the hosts at least acknowledge that the values have only been going up nominally over the past 2 years but *not* keeping up with the rate of inflation. By their own words you could infer that there’s at least a micro crash unfolding
We're lucky folks like you research that data, otherwise we'd have no idea what happened in 2006.... Ironically, I wrote a research paper with an investment advisory firm in 2006 warning of a coming 20% drop in home values. Sadly our projections were much too conservative in many markets. The point is, it wasn't hard to see the writing on the wall on the way in. 16 years later, people want to look back and try to overlay similarities and say history will repeat itself while ignoring the massive differences in 2006 and 2022. The data is out there....you just have to approach it without looking to confirm the conclusion you've already made.
@@TheEducatedHomebuyerdevil’s advocate, if you under accessed the decline during the 2006-2008 time period via being too conservative by your own words then I’d have to wager you’re doing the same today. I don’t need to a crash to happen to be able to buy, I can buy today at todays rates no problem. I am actively choosing to be on the sidelines while this thing plays out. Worst case scenario by your own words homes go nominally up in value but get beat out by the rate of inflation while I have the down payment money parked in T-bills. That’s the worst case scenario for me.
