All pilots know the pit in the stomach that begins anytime you realize that you're not sure where you are, or that fuel is low. One can only imagine how these people felt in the minutes before they ran out of gas over the vast Pacific.
You are the only one that parallels my own thinking. I have said for years they flew past the island that was south of them by 15 to 25 miles. They ran out of fuel looking for Howland Island. NO Nikumaroro, No Japanese B S either. If I hit the lottery I will start my search East of the island. Problem most daunting is the vast area combined with the extreme depth of the ocean in that area. I was about 12 when a teacher put me onto Amelia and her disappearance, I'm over 80 now and still taking in all the info I can. Thank you for your great deductions. So sad about Fred and Amelia.😪😪😪
There's an 8 year old video here on Yu Toob that expert Joe Lodrige's explanation on where Amelia Earhart went missing is given, and he was 7 years old when she went down. He draws a nearly identical conclusion as you but he says she's further southeast along the 157 line because the last signal to Itasca went a little weaker. He puts her at 0 degrees, 10 minutes north by 175 degrees, 55 minutes west, almost due east of Baker Island. Regardless, I think both of you are absolutely correct that she's in the water along that line either east or southeast of Howland. David Jourdan's 2002 & 2005 deep sea searches covered 1200 square miles north, northeast and northwest of Howland and found nothing, so those locations can be eliminated. That only leaves east and southeast of the island as the place she can be.
In 1964, my ship was on patrol between New Guinea and Howland Island. During our flight, we flew in the vicinity of Earhart's flight and were intercepted by a pilot who was attempting to recreate the Earhart flight.
If the possible wreck that was recently located is Amelias Lockheed 10 Electra it would be very interesting to see if it lies within your suggested search area.
It may have drifted some distance before sinking I think as the empty fuel tank's (1200 gal.) have a buoyancy of 9990 lbs but the aircraft weigh's lees than 7000 lbs, It may have taken some time for the fuel tanks to fill with water.
Your research looks accurate. The issue will be decided when someone searches the ocean floor 25 miles east of Howland Island and finds the aircraft. Excellent job on showing the timeline!!!
This is fantastic and I am sure you are right. The TIGHER blow hearts put the aircraft on Gardner island 400 miles sound of Howland, never considering there was not enough fuel to reach Gardner island. also Gardner island was searched 1 week after the plane disappeared and the search never found anything.. The lastest sonar find confirms your brilliant work. I am sure within a year your work will be vindicated.
This is the best guess a to where they actually ended up. All the other theories don't make any sense when you look at the facts. They just didn't have enough fuel to make it to Gardner Island, or any of the other islands people think they wound up on. It's not a glamourous mystery with a fantastic story of survival, just a regular tragic accident, sorry folks, this is reality.
The.most likely explanation is usually the right one They ran out of fuel and crashed and sunk most of the life saved equipment was left behind because of weight including a raft
