The Next Decade of Software Development - Richard Campbell - NDC London 2023 

🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:00 🎤 Richard Campbell, an experienced software developer, discusses the future of software development, including trends and challenges in the next decade. 02:07 🧠 Moore's Law, the trend of doubling the number of transistors on a chip every 18-24 months, is reaching its limits, and future improvements in computing power will be constrained. 05:39 💻 Architectural improvements and optimizing processors become crucial as Moore's Law ends, and companies like Apple's M1 and M2 chips showcase advancements in architecture. 09:59 📉 Network limitations, especially with 5G and 6G, will be a significant constraint in the future, impacting data transfer and communication between devices. 17:37 🌐 Ubiquitous computing, where every device has an IP address and connects to the network, will become more prevalent, driven by innovations like satellite networks and increased connectivity. 19:43 🦠 The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated cloud migration and changed work dynamics, but economic impacts, loss of expertise, and supply chain disruptions have also posed challenges. 21:47 💡 Software developers may face economic challenges and a shift from a growth mindset to a focus on return on investment as the industry evolves. 22:31 🏭 Companies should focus on building tools that help them make money and work more efficiently. 23:00 📈 Companies are becoming more reflective and reevaluating their priorities due to economic changes and technological advancements. 24:09 🌐 The browser market is relatively stable, with Chrome, Safari, Edge, and Firefox being major players, and web development is still mostly focused on browsers. 25:17 🧩 Blazer and WebAssembly offer opportunities for running client-side code in various environments, with potential for server-side use as well. 29:11 🕸️ The concept of decentralized web is gaining popularity, offering more control and flexibility while avoiding some centralization drawbacks. 32:07 🚀 Web 3.0, with concepts like blockchain, has potential but has been widely misapplied and faces issues with crypto and centralization. 33:33 🆕 .NET has made significant advancements, transitioning to a cloud-centric, heterogeneous client platform while maintaining compatibility and familiar skills. 35:05 🔮 MAUI (Multi-platform App UI) by Microsoft aims to provide a unified client development model for multiple platforms, although it's still evolving. 36:45 🛠️ The Power Platform empowers domain experts to build apps and solves UI multi-platform issues, leading to increased productivity and ease of use. 39:03 🛡️ Containerization of software is growing, with potential applications in desktop machines to enhance security against exploits and attacks. 42:28 🧭 Building a successful career in development involves choosing between staying on the Leading Edge or becoming an expert in a specific technology stack. 43:23 🤖 Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an umbrella term often used for technologies that don't work yet; when they do, they receive new names like deep learning or predictive analytics. 44:19 🖥️ The current era of software development incorporates various AI technologies like image recognition, speech bots, and form recognizers that are readily available as libraries, making it easier to use AI in software development. 45:30 🤖 Machine learning models, like form recognizers, can be used to automatically recognize forms and associated data, streamlining the process of digitizing forms without manual coding. 46:23 📈 Analyzing data using advanced analytics and machine learning is a valuable career opportunity, as the volume of data continues to increase, and the cloud provides better tools for advanced data analysis. 47:47 ⚙️ Beyond predictive analytics, the integration of prescriptive analytics, which combines predictive models with actions, enables automated decision-making, as seen in personalized marketing strategies and emergency planning. 49:25 🎮 Machine learning models, like OpenAI's Co-Pilot, are becoming valuable tools for programming, assisting developers in generating code snippets, but human evaluation and discernment remain essential. 52:01 🕶️ Although AR headsets are a promising technology, their commercial adoption faces challenges, and 2023 might not be a significant year for AR headset advancements. 58:07 ⚛️ Quantum computing's potential lies in solving complex problems in fields like agriculture, chemistry, and material science, but the technology is still in its early stages and requires significant development. 01:05:49 🛠️ Quantum computing is still at a stage reminiscent of early mechanical mainframes, with various approaches to building quantum computers and the need for a stable and reliable qubit technology.

Interesting topic and well presented, I certainly learned a few new things. Thanks!

Wonderful talk. Thank you for sharing this with all of us!

Appreciate this talk. Thank you sir!

Wow, such a great information. Thank you.

Wonderful talk.

appreciate the learnings from the talk

Very interesting. Thank you!

This was awesome. Well done!

thanks uncle Richard, it was really helpful to broaden the way I used to think

Wish I had the level of confidence and body language. Great presentation.

Great presentation and insights by Richard! Love the video ❤

This explains so much! 😮

"John Carmack, the guy behind Oculus" 🤔 ... Doom be upon us

I feel like the code could have been called "The Next Decade Of Microsoft Software Development"

thought provoking talk, Richard. Thanks for presenting this, so many takeaways!

Up-to-date and informative presentation here. That's awesome. Thank you!

Good talk, but I wish Richard would have spent more time (or even some at all) on software development of the future as the title suggests.

Well first when we thinks on software development it is better to first take a look decades ago when the first software were designed and we also take another look to how the software design have been changing in the last 4 decades and is an big change which wil continue without ending never. Mr. Richard Campbel was a so helpfull and interesting video. Thanks so much

Amazing presentation!!

Brilliant Talk

Great talk

WOW. Great Talk 🤯

Another thing that might help also is to try to document the component if there is no existing documentation. That will help you also increase your knowledge of the feature.

great talk

Amazing!

Pretty good tech talk.

Funny to mention Visual Studio 2010. With the current version of Visual Studio 2022 (version 17.7.0) even the Start Page is back in favor of the startup screen 🤣. No confusion there.

Good talk! I agree that power platform is really taking off, although I did try the powerautomate copilot and am not impressed. Power automate and powerbi are heavily used and depended upon in our org.

Thank you, very interesting

great insight, thanks.

We're going to exhaust Moore's "Law" because we're going to run out of atoms, and then architecture performance should return to be a more relevant discussion. A form of containerization, such as Wasm is doing, should give us the next abstraction layer for web development. “Blockchain is not inherently stupid, it’s just wildly misapplied”, maybe we’ll use the remaining of it to do something useful one day. The big collection of concepts we call AI is being used to create handy tools we should keep an eye on, especially to develop solutions to approach the end user to his domain-oriented problems. Hololens (and similar headgear devices) sounds like a relevant goal, but it seems we’re still a bit far from it doing what we really want it to do. Quantum computing should give us power to solve problems we couldn’t solve yet, like pinpointing specific chemistry reactions. The best way to predict the future is to make it :)

great fair summary; thanks;

good talk

No one could have predicted that the "choose Unity" part of this talk would be what aged poorly just 5 months later 😆

Nice talk

Great talk. Nothing to do with software development.

People don't use Chrome because they prefer the browser. They like the integration with the Google mother ship.

This was really insightful

Ahh sweet sweet performance mockery. I love it. Gotta strap ourselves to the Quantum computing rocket at some distant future point, to get the performance explosions again.

Such a good talk. I want him to make a new one every three months due to the release of these generative models like Gemini 1.5!

Thanks for confirming some of our predictions about AI, for example. It is useful to understand trends in order to be able to create software that will remain relevant. Understanding the trends and advancements in AI is crucial for creating software that stays relevant and meets the evolving needs of users. By staying updated on the latest developments, we can harness the power of AI to deliver innovative solutions that align with the changing landscape.

MS Power platform - domain experts can design their own apps, app forms reasonably well, but mostly for internal apps and not public facing, users be authenticated members of tenant

I am enjoying this

random find. Great video

The problem of things like 5G are, that since I still only get 3 - 10 GB per month for anything like affordable prices, I literally couldn’t care less, and range was already a lot more important, so any reduction in that is just shit. As for connected devices, telemetry, etc. LTE it’s already fast enough anyway, heck it is enough for videostreaming

Yes, many think that if we pack in processing power and memory we can then have bulky applications with generated code. So do the same thing as some custome classes in JS, we move a whole library to do the same and we further decrease network efecctivity.

Great

Really? The inflation we are experiencing is from supply chain issues? Think again my brother. It's about central bank and government policy.

Make the future.

The talk has nothing to do with the next decade of software development but rather the advancements throughout the last century

How about Webb development and in particular Blazor’s future?

my main take : container based security software model

Decentralized computing is good as a concept. But the current Web3 implementation is so bad that the costs wildly outshine the benefits. Most accessible Web3 projects are heavily centralized with their off-chain parts and are, imo, indistinguishable from a normal web with fancy but slow databases.

I could appreciate how small we are compared to mother nature. A quantum computer needed just to understand the nitrogen fixing than a simple plant can do just like that.

Seems to me that we should be geting better at making predictions, especially about technology. In 1980, what computer producers were still going to be relevant after year 200? Pretty sure people thought IBM, DEC and Unix What happened to DEC & why? Building up a knowledge base like this, over time, should mean we get better at the difficult (predicting weather is surely far more difficult, but we haven't given up). Similar predictions for languages...hadn't heard of Java until mid 90s; at what stage was it apparent that COBOL was no longer going to be relevant...and what happened between then & the decade preceding?

Dude disqualified it self with "Noone does Bitcoin mining anymore" Hashrate literally at ATH

He pretty much covered all technologies we are developing or using but he forget IoT/IIoT and light computing which is a domain of computing between silicon and quantum computing. Nice talk ! Computing industry marching on...

As a student of Software Engineering my question is that: Should i learn coding to make Games and Apps or switch to no code tools?

A+

Exceptional speaker, a bit weak on the outlook of what’s going to happen in the midterm but catching anyway

Strange to hear “compute” used as a noun.

I thought the presentation was about software development

"It is dangerous to make predictions - especially about the future" is even in the talk and yet he goes on to make those predictions.

Did I miss it or did he totally ignore photonic chips? And what about AlphaFold! (way more relevant for agriculture than quantum computers)

someone summarize it please !

Feels like a 10 year old video when talking about AR thanks to the Apple Vision Pro presentation.

1:02:05. Aaah!!! What you said there about leaving the land to go fallow for sometime is also in the bible. 😄

“Nobody’s mining bitcoin anymore!” Yeah, but NVidia is still charging like they are

Aside from MS being a bit of a lame duck in web dev, container serving and containerised application spaces (JS/TS owns 1st and Linux owns the last 2) the rest of his info seems good.

Somebody will be comparing today’s super computer frontier to handheld device by 2035😂

The trend of billionaires messing up their companies started with Steve Ballmer.

LOL. A Microsoft person talking about Napster and Crypto being nefarious.

This content is overflowing with transformative thoughts. I found a book with like themes that redirected my journey. "AWS Unleashed: Mastering Amazon Web Services for Software Engineers" by Harrison Quill

Damn this guy could probably do standup tbh.

That part with apple and AR didnt age well, lol

Very good talk but it's a little out of date, specifically when he recommended Unity. Please don't use Unity their board has tanked the company in the same way Facebook and Twitter did.

The title is a little misleading.. says nothing about Software Development or it'strends, in the first 20 mins at least.

20:35 - a wild @linustechtips appears 😂

"they redevelopped dotnet, without changing the tooling !" LOL what tooling ? it's light years behind most other languages in this regard.

blockchain , companies want central control- other parties can introduce transactions into your data independent of you.

I wanna invite this guy to a BBQ and talk the whole day.

"interpreted as inflation" that's inflation

sorrry i am a developer , Edge is much better than crome, both are made of chromium but edge is much better and uses less resouces, i think you wanted to say IE?

The next is ....... Subject-Oriented Programming on Universal Software Model. No OOP! No classes!

7:37 I think he meant middle-aged mothers

Well, unity seems to have tanked itself slightly.

I was honestly hoping he’d have said the bear attempts garbage collection. Or something like that. Ah well. Haha

Hmm...this was made before the Unity debacle...

We've been entering into an era of less is more for a long time now. Richard might want to look into Keto Diet.

few weeks later apple has their consumer device - so much for a tech prophet!

43:55 the presenter innacurately describes Siri tohave "came out of a Hinton paper in the 2010s", but in fact, Siri is dated 2003-2005, so how is it possible to have time traveled? the talk is interesting, but if this is wrong I wonder what other parts are also wrong. did he means the early 2000s? I can't believe Siri came out of a "single paper" either.

Using b2b industry , install the smart industry smart factory smart ai productions Installations engineers is team members of company each of team of engineers install and design for factory. Study and install the new factory

The MS UI platforms absolutely suck. Flutter solved it in a nice way.

apple vision

TL;DR - absolutely nothing at all has changed in software development since at least the 1980s through to today. It's literally Groundhog Day, every day, of every year, of every decade. Only the names of the tools change, but everything else is exactly the same. It will remain exactly the same next year, and the whole decade after that.

He’s trying to be like Uncle Bob! Spent 30 minutes of my life on this which I won’t get back.

"Speed of light is a law", what about quantum entanglement?

Today after watching the launch of Apple's Vision Pro, many of the technology will become obsolete. Took just a month, to make it happen.

Misleading title