It’s so sad how these kinds of high level, super sophisticated discussions aren’t as popular, hopefully more people will tap in So many could benefit from hearing this
Look around you. Du you think that most people are high level and super sophisticated? Even well educated are very ignorant regarding a great many things, although of course they think highly of themselves. 😉 Yes, this is a very interesting topic. What will probably concern most people is the economy and the question is when does it all start to decline so fast that we all realise that we will live the rest of our lives in a depression?
EDIT: Nevermind, he already addressed it. Will just let the comment be. It doesn't have to be a single story kind of. For North Korea, it's one story, for the West it's a different story, and so on. One common thread is a loss of all stories. The athiests had some stories in the last century, but after the collapse of their huge projects, in spectacular fashion, there was no good story to be told. For the West too, alot of narratives just died due to the internet shining a light on the truly broken systemic issues that plague everything. Without a narrative driving us towards the future, there's really very little reason to sustain life. There's also a very weird consumption of relationships by the spectre of capitalism I think. Lots of different narratives.
On top of a heap of rubble? You know when Japan, SK, China and Europe all disappear the rest of the world is also pretty much fkd. BTW, countries like India, Thailand and Brazil are below replacement level. Some way below... Good luck!
That should be common sense honestly also it seems more urban areas have had a historical Lower birth rate compared to rural areas so if you want a decreasing birthrates atheist/urban society like most modern first world nations have become but a religious/ rural areas have higher birthrates seem to be the pattern
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Giving her my initial savings of $6,500 to invest in a brokerage account was a turning point in my life less 7days. It's been an incredibly rewarding experience.
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I haven't watched the whole video as it just came out, but I imagine large scale automation and longevity focused biotech are going to be massive sources of investment later this century. I think China might do well in these areas tbh
I thought the reason for the fertility crisis was pretty well understood? Increased cost of childcare along with lack of a need for more labor on the farm and voila: having children is a luxury rather than a staple of family life. A la Peter Zeihan
LMFAO! In Canada Indians, Chinese, and Middle Easterners, etc are buying homes, having kids, etc while the native population talks themselves into self-destruction. Literally tatted up, having segz like animals, overdosing, etc and talking like there is a logical reason for their crashing out. Literally don't even see them in the work place but, I am sure they have some obnoxious soothing lie for that too
Not at all. Many surveys of young women around the world reveal the #1 reason they aren't having babies, because they don't want to. I'm not being funny, 57% say that, it's crazy. They just don't want them. And when you look at the incentives, where governments try to bribe young couples (tax breaks, free college education for their future children, free money, etc.) they never work. If money were the issue, they would work. Also, I've seen many videos where young women were asked follow up questions, like in Japan, so if you were paid $100,000 to have a baby and raise it, would you? And the girls giggle, look around uncomfortably, and say, No F Way. Not even for $500,000. The thing is, they don't want them anymore, they want to live life, travel, have fun, have careers, be mobile, be free.
Peter Zeihan is very loose with facts and interpretation. He says some interesting stuff but dilutes it so much with flights of fancy, but that's why his content is entertaining and appeals to a mass audience.
@@默-c1r I agree, but I haven't heard a better explanation of the phenomenon. It passes the sniff test for me because it addresses both incentives and disincentives,, so regardless of the source it seems a valid argument. Do you have another point of view?
@@Twisty112289 I tend to agree with Samo here, I think the best we can say is we don't know because every theory seems to have a counterexample. Women all around the world want fewer children and it can't be tied to religiosity, economic development, or feminism. I also think the cost idea doesn't hold up since an average Dutch woman who would get free schooling, healthcare, and daycare for her kid is still not extra prone to fertility, and an American woman who has to pay a ludicrous sum for her kid's daycare and college isn't less likely to have a child than the Dutch woman. Very puzzling stuff but I think we just don't know as uncomfortable as that is.
Still wondering why 2 countries level war => push for higher fertility civil war => push for less fertility on the other group what makes country level group special?
Turkey is a time bomb, the Kurdish area has a fertility of 3 and the Turkish area has a below replacement fertility, I can see the Kurds forming a Guerrilla trying to live in Turkey and even succeeding.
It is happening in Latin America and that is why I think the southern border will be more manageable in the future, fertility in Mexico and in Central America are falling.
Sound Money (Bitcoin) could fix this. Buying power and therefore planneble timelines will raise peoples confidence in investing in their childrens future
I think the baby boom can be explained because many excess men died in WWII. Then it is easy for the survivor to find a wife and form a family; the opposite is today, where the dating market is hypercompetitive.
As far as the Manhattan Project type effort goes, that was during the beautiful demographic boom. Today, a Manhattan Project would be with demographics and the economy sliding. Probably can't happen.
Yeah! And going to Mars? Haha...forget about it. And according to the current trends half of the world's population in 2100 will be African. You can draw your own conclusions about that..
Haha, 'Elon juicing the numbers'... Well, maybe we also need to consider what we're aiming for from a systems perspective. What is the maximum sustainable population we want for a healthy planet and animal ecosystem? Are those who want to have children able to do so? What is the minimum population needed to ensure the future of our species? After that, we could examine the reasons why people are not having children. But honestly, I feel that AI-related questions and crises will confront us more quickly than population issues will in 2024.
Linearly extrapolate current population trends for hundreds of years? Surely nothing could be wrong with that idea. A simple counter point to this whole conversation is go back 300 years and compare the quality of life of a king then to someone in the middle class now. Its believable that in another 300 years the average person will have the quality of life of a billionaire today. What if you had an autonomous robot to do all chores and parent your children? No intervention needed. Don't get me wrong we should be taking actions, and generally I support measure to make parenting easier for the middle class, but extinction is a ridiculous conclusion.
It is more likely that in 2100 all people will fall back to the living standards of an average person in Mexico in the year 1924. 🥳 IF they're lucky that is.
We are not going to disappear any time soon. Certain parties are concerned about the decrease in numbers for cannon fodder (for continuous wars) and workers ( for continuous wage slavery). 😂😂
We are nowhere near 8 billion. Every single country population projection where there are reliable census has disproved the UN census. Brazil alone is of by 15 million in UNs projection where they say we are 220 million when we are actually somewhere around 205 million. And I can give you dozens of other examples.
@@Ravenelvenlady honestly if their aren't enough workers that could collapse the current system and create a massive amount of starvation and conflicts making the population drop off by insane numbers
We had an extremely rapid population explosion in the 20th century. It seems perfectly normal to see a slow down. Population growth far outstripped the need for people. We have a huge number of ‘excess people’. Look at how big the underclass now is in the US never mind globally. Massive population collapse is actually very good for the standard of living of everyone left over and disproportionately for the poor and middle class. And there is source of all the hand wringing. As well as an explanation for Covid policy. The two most dangerous threats the super rich face are plague followed closely by population decline.
I think that we will have longevity escape velocity pretty soon in the coming decades where 100 years may be come the new generation time up from 20 years and we will look like our middle aged selves at most. If there becomes a signifiant ressitance to this then biohacking could make it happen regardless for indiviguals. Also its a great opportunity to make billions for pennies per therapy. We already know much of how aging works, and soon its all about appling them. It would also mean that sexual reproduction becomes irrelevent, and ancent primitive way
This is a common mistake due to using old data. Here is the 2024 data 2:21 south Korea have TFR 0,72 2:27 Japan TFR 1.2 2:59 Cities will always have a lower TFR than rural areas. Cities are heavily dependent on rural areas to maintain their population numbers. The capital of the Roman Empire (Rome) had 50% of its population immigrants.But because the TFR of the city of Rome is very small, the immigrant population cannot replace the DNA of the population of the Italian peninsula. 3:12 Come on, let's use real data, don't bring propaganda here.
require women to be married and to produce a child every 2 years until they have 2.3 kids unmarried women or women not on their way to producing 2.3 kids would be ineligible for government services and not allowed to be employed it should be like military service/selective service is required in many countries for men to retain citizenship or be allowed to work also all fertility and childcare expenses should be tax deductible (up to a certain limit e.g. the average cost to raise a child per child) do this it gets fixed over night
