What I find very interesting is that it doesn't seem like any 'mainstream' finance people ever talk about this or seem to have any understanding that this potential exists...
Because the revenue has been small, and lumped together with solar rooves, it has also been marginally profitable/unprofitable. Its going to stay a small part of their business for a while, compared to vehicles, but the trend is emerging rapidly.
Ages ago, I remember a financial analyst commenting that he believed the market would come to understand that Tesla was an energy company competing with producers like Duke Energy. So he did his financial and Market analysis from that viewpoint. I wish I remembered his name or firm. But at the time it was the first time I'd heard it expressed that way and I said to myself oh my. Because I never could figure out how to deal with every windmill requiring a GE peaker Which was why GE was a heavy investor in windmills. They got every penny back. So it was time to double down on GE and their turbine powered gas generators. Known as Peakers. Made a lot of sense then and this is what Mr. M is going to displace, to his and all of our benefit. Squawks the macaw.
Brilliant and very complete understanding of the MegaPack potential. I would like to propose that the reason the backlog of the MegaPacks is only 2 years is that as an Engineer I would not like to invest my time in a project where the main component is over 2 years away. When I see increased capacity increasing I see projects that can have an ROI of 2 to 3 years and have them running in 3 to 4 years now I'm excited. First, the low-hanging fruit, replacing Peaker plants with battery systems that respond to demand instantly, doesn't require having to explain to the EPA how many tons of carbon I am burning and when will I install carbon capturing capability. That's 1,000 US Peaker plants with an average of 100 batteries plant. How about replacing backup generators in hospitals, how about solar and wind farms that would like to save the excess electricity that cannot generate as nobody wants it until later that day. Perhaps we will need way more facilities than Lathrop in the USA and Canada, how about the UK and Europe, South America, Australia, and every country with the possible exception of China which will be stealing Tesla's blueprints and building their own. Elon will not care as this will be the best way to transition to renewable energy.
The Megapacks are using CATL batteries. So we have to build Gigafactories to make LFP batteries to replace the CATL batteries. But the incredibly fortunate problem is that the demand for batteries is so great that all the batteries from CATL and the new domestic factories will be needed for many millions of Tesla Powerwalls all over the world! Yay! We have to get rid of those fossil fueled generators to end global warming!
Mark, you've got a great perspective! The low-hanging fruit is Megapacks, versus Powerwalls and the labor hours to bring to the finish line, as in 'throw the switch'. Thanks to SolarCity?
I definitely agree that the plan should/is to build more factories for MPs. Similar to Giga Shanghai it was the first focus of a new style of factory built in the most efficient way. Then came Berlin and Austin. Lathrop is the first and now they have the learnings from building that the next one should be better and more efficient. The evidence was well documented in this video. Let the mainstream sleep in this while those who have their eyes open now but more stock.
A few things you missed is the very lucrative planning and installation fees as well as the recurring software and maintenance fees. That could turn into $5B-$20B in revenue by 2030
The continual revenue is icing on the money cake. The autobidder part of the software (the determines when to buy and sell electricity) will be a money printer for both Tesla and the megapack purchaser.
Tesla is creating an eco-system of hardware * and * software. They are also having a bet each way. Their megapack are going into grids and "traditional" generator-dominated energy, while their powerwalls go into consumers homes, and when tied together with software, those home units become a virtual power plant or VPP. Combined with your Tesla app, you can increasingly reduce dependence on your external generation companies, and even trade your own energy via Tesla as the broker, into the marketplace. Its the same as how once most shares had to be traded through a broker, and only wealthy people could afford that, when now we can trade ourselves via an app.
Wake up people from your hallucination. Battery packs are just like storage tank for weather induced variable power generation of your solar and wind farm. They dont add to generatiom capacity of the grid. They only smooth out power generation when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine. You still need hydro, nuclear, coal and gas plants as base load to cater to variable daily, weekly, monthly and yearly power demand of the consumer.
The 30% cost reduction noted is meaningful if it's 30% reduction per kilowatt-hour (kWh), rather than 30% reduction per kW, as shown in bold letters up front. While this error is avoided later on your talk, please fix this error up front, so you're not confusing your audience with the wrong units. KiloWatts, MegaWatts, GigaWatts are all units of power capability, not energy storage capability or capacity. When you're talking about energy storage, like you are, then you should be using energy units, not units of power. Since this confusion is a common one, please help your audience understand the major difference between energy (kWh) and power (kW) capability.
I can understand private citizens not knowing that Tesla has many markets it serves, but Yahoo finance and other investment channels having hosts that don’t know is unforgivable.
They only see Tesla as a car company and confirmation bias become even more evidence when they point out all the profit were from the cars business. They don't acknowledge the revenue is put in to R&D and other costs for Energy side of the business or AI development or manufacture technologies advancement, software development, etc. So therefore, Tesla is only a car company.
They do know, but they also know their audience. Megapacks aren't sexy, they're just a box of batteries. Cars are sexy which means more people interested and more viewers and more advertising dollars for their network.
Yes. Not only is Elon going for big auto, he's going for big oil. When Tesla's market cap is bigger than Saudi Aramco, we'll know the switch is happening.
We really need to separate Elon from Tesla. He didn’t create it, and isn’t contributing anything. We need to be praising the engineers, manufacturers, materials scientists, and supply chain operators.
eerm, Elon did not technically create the business called Tesla. That was done by 2 guys, Eberhard and Tappening. They made a business plan. No IP, no engineering, nothing. A basic preliminary plan. Elon's techicsl and business leadership created what we know as Tesla today. The original "founders" essentially did zero in terms of building the company.
@@johnmcbirnie3203 If I were you, I’d go back and read some more information. Those two are the original engineers of the foundational concept (the roadster). Their IP is the drivetrain. Elon bought them out, and discredited them through lies (all of this is now recorded history). Elon designed a proprietary charging connection port and that’s all. He has no technical or business leadership. He is a parrot speaking the ideas of much smarter people. His job is PR. I cite the entire twitter take over as evidence of what happens when Elon has full control. I cite the solar panel business that has been shuttered as another example. SpaceX and Tesla dominate because there are very smart people leading teams. I will not shit on Elon completely. He has done well as a celebrity mouth piece and generating public interest/securing money from early adopters through lies that have cost similar ceos jail time (theranos). He may have some ceo business acumen. But that board, lawyers, and engineers across the relevant fields (operations, process, materials, Chem, etc) are what’s driving the innovation. Not Elon.
@@E-Nigma_ this trope is nonsense yet keeps getting thrown out there. Do a little research and you'll discover how Elon has been able to amass billions from a $22k initial investment. It's Elon's vision, leadership, and capital that have made this possible. Without Elon Tesla would not exist as it does today, if at all. If he doesn't add value then why can't anyone else produce the results he does? Just stop it. This is nonsense.
Great video, but you did miss one thing: Autobidder software. This could be a huge revenue stream for Tesla with SaaS-like margins. Basically, Tesla optimizes the grid demand and takes a cut from every kilowatt sold.
Is it complicated code? AI these days and my sloppy self could write code with a company that already builds these with amazing quality. What’s to say they don’t make a deal with CATL too and undercut Tesla? Those margins are waaay too high for other people to now compete to get a piece of that delicious battery pie. What’s stopping anyone else from doing this? Thanks
@@PhilthyMr honestly, I don't know, but it might be a bit more nuanced than that. For instance, lots of automakers are having trouble making their cars' software as good as Tesla's. Most of them still can't even do over-the-air updates. VW had to delay one of their EVs because of software issues. The cars were built and just collecting dust because the software didn't work. So I assume there's some competitive advantage to writing good software and algorithms. People seem to prefer Google's search algorithm, though I can't tell you why others can't seem to compete. I don't know if those same rules apply in this scenario, though. You might be right.
@@PhilthyMr The industry is bound up in lots of regulations, and the renewables sector is still evolving. For example, in Australia we only just moved from 30 minute pricing to 5 minute pricing. The 5 minute pricing window favours batteries. Tesla is working in Adelaide on a 50,000 Powerwall Virtual Power Plant (VPP) subsidized by the South Australian government. When they got to about 3,000 powerwalls (and solar panels), they started bidding into the market and had a few rough starts, where the energy mix wasn't right. But after they got it "tuned", the whole thing started working, making money and helping the grid. Its these years of experience that Tesla is building up and learning all the while, that will help their edge. And imagine being able to ask the Tesla HQ AI team for some assistance building nueral nets to amp up the market-trading AI, or a few days of Space X engineering boffins for the electrical maths...?
Hey, great video. Are you sure the new price for the mega packs are current up to this Q4? I know they had much worse margins from old contracts that kept them very low, but I wasn't sure how much longer that backlog had until they would be able to start producing them at these much more favorable levels for margins.
Great video. Once it’s clear I’m not gonna lose everything on my Tesla LEAPs or am able to recoup a decent amount to convert them into some Tesla stock, I’ll become a Patreon member of this channel. 😀
Storing some energy is better than storing no energy, so it does not really matter. All that will happen is engineers will account for temperature extreme losses when they do their math and buy a few extra packs to account for it. So the projects will have extra storage in moderate temperatures and enough storage in extreme temperatures. Just like most of the obstructionist FUD comments; yes they have though of that and done the math and adjusted for it and the product is still beneficial even considering that little gotcha imperfection. But we will still see it brought up in millions of social media comments as a fake reason we should just keep burning fossil fuels instead.
615/kWh is incorrect! Market is 1/2 that price!! When pricing with tsla battery from website there is a soft cost that is fixed for engineering and drawing. The bigger the system the lower this cost in kWh. Try ordering 100 mega packs versus 1 mega pack and u will see the diff
@11:45 , the video mixes kW (power) and kWh (energy). These batteries have about 1 hour duration so kW happens to be same as kWh (coincidence), but these should always be stated separately.
Excellent intro. Wonder what is the advantage of TSLA MP compared to other products on the market? TSLA isn't the only company building energy storage product, right?
Tesla's car margins are so much better than every other manufacturer that there's simply no contest. A small price cut puts far more pressure on their competitors than it does on their bottom line.
Your videos are stellar, but (not meant to offend in any way) you may consider making the titles slightly less “clickbaity”. I have shared several of your videos with those in my immediate social circle, and the most frequent response is that they would seem more legitimate if the titles didn’t sound so over the top 😂. Just food for thought 🤷🏼♂️
This is key: "recurring software and maintenance fees. That could turn into $5B-$20B in revenue by 2030", versus the SolarCity model. Sending a crew to install residential solar and storage for a couple of days to install a $30,000 system versus having a Megapack contract for recurring software and maintenance makes so much sense. 14 Reply
Excellent video. I think a GM% even between 30% to 40% would be excellent. Sandy Munro thinks 40% is very doable. The important thing in 2023 is seeing an upward ramp and the Q4 call will be important to see how much, if at all, management talks about the FY 2023 energy guidance. I hope they do however keep expectations low and surprise to the upside in 2023.
5:36 why would one cycle per day never be the case? Tesla offers 4h and 2h discharge variants, so 6 and 12 full cycles per day are technically possible. In use cases where you actually try to earn money by operating the battery you will want to maximize returns by running it at every opportunity.
Demand is way much higher than that. As they explained at Battery Day, and anyone can easily do the math, demand will be several TWh per year. Even now the new factory is too small. Think about the power outages in California and Texas or the energy crisis in Europe. In both cases energy storage would be a huge help, and the scales involved are already beyond the 40GWh capacity of Lathrop. And if prices go down, demand can scale up almost indefinitely. Currently it's cheaper to overbuild production and use as little storage as possible, but as prices go down, the optimum shifts toward more storage. In the limit, it could make sense to store excess solar power in summer to be used in winter. That's a staggering amount of storage. Likely won't make economic sense any time soon, if ever, but it's a possibility.
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 That's true; a lot of people did care (myself included). I should say that the masses didn't seem to care - or at least it wasn't getting the attention it deserved.
ISO Today app shows the battery capacity on the California electrical grid. Data is near real-time. PS - Wonder of a Megapack could be used to supplement data center UPS and diesel generator backup systems? Guess you’d have to cost it out plus see if runtime it provides would be comparable with data center requirements
Here in France we estimate the cost of a Pumped Storage Facility at 50 €/kwh with a capacity of number of cycles without loss of capacity over tens of years or even a century. The price of battery storage will always compete with these low storage prices and above all with potentially immensely larger storage capacities. The battery solution will only remain suitable for small local supplies to meet peak power demand. Keep this in mind before you get too excited about fantastic projections.
Pump storage is fantastic but there are a limited amount of locations you can construct such an installation. Additionally a Megapack can be installed in 6-9 months versus several years.
Excellent video - clear explanation of this. Tesla is developing many products that are complementary (electric cars, Semi's, charging networks, solar, storage, software, insurance, etc.) and the media only focuses on the cars...
You noted that LFP was unsuitable for EVs because of power and energy density, but I guess since the Model 3 is a lower-end and less performant vehicle, then that would be the reason why the Model 3 is using LFP batteries now? Do you have a video discussing LFP batteries in the Model 3? Aside from lower power output and density, would it potentially have better endurance compared to the traditional vehicle battery packs?
LFP generally have low density power storage so they are very heavy in larger automobiles. Some small, shorter range car designs can get away with using them. But they are not ideal.
I think it’s understandable the focus on Model Y prices over Megapack. Model Y is a larger revenue and profit source short term. Plus, it’s proven a large TAM. Mega Pack is nascent. I believe it will be big, but it could take years to ramp meaningfully
Don’t forget Tesla also gets a cut of the energy bought AND sold with their brokering software buy/charge when electricity cheap, sell it as demand peaks. All autonomously, free revenue nobody talks about.
The ira credits for manufacturing and assembling batteries in the U.S. tesla is now eligible for can cut their direct cost per kwh down by 30-45% through qualifying for the new credits. Scale reduces cost as well, last year vs this year will be nearly a 10x in storage sold. Thanks in no small part to the lathrope megapack factory opening in late q3 2022 and scaling up as we speak. 👍🏻
Waiting for Sodium Ion Megapacks! Battery changes offering more power for less will tip the transition massively as long as they have the production capacity!! BYD and CATL offer static storage along with others??
@@richb2229 CATL have said they will be producing Sodium ion batteries in the middle of this year. They are not some tinpot startup. Middle of this year Bigfoot boy.
@@danielstapler4315 they are in early stage trials, site shows 2026 for deployment. the point is, their material science is sound, and they have it working.. the manufacturing is where they need help, and Tesla excels at that. Tesla should probably just buy the company and accelerate their development to actual use.. the cost is far lower than LiPo, and they need no cooling or thermal management, their perfect for deserted remote environments, which is typical for solar/winds farms.. their batteries could be the next generation of the megapack. the only issue is Gates is an early angel backer, and Elon hates Gates.
Great story and based on real facts. Only one concern if Tesla needs CATL for their batteries than CATL plus may be another Chinese partner will be vey quick to match Teslas offering just like they do in EVs so Tesla needs the software edge to make these kind of profits sustainable longer term or find an alternative battery that has outcompetes CATL ( which may be quite feasible)
A little nitpick on your usage of units in several of your videos: You often note the units "kWh" and "MWh" and "GWh", but pronounce them as kiloWatt (kW), MegaWatt(MW), GigaWatt(GW). The units are actually kiloWatt-hours, MegaWatt-hours, and GigaWatt-hours to denote energy rather than power.
the issue for several of us stockholders is that we know Megapaks have more limited utility than Tesla's EVs. better to use LFP batteries for low-performance EVs (robotaxis?) & for powerwalls. just use cheap but effective carbondioxide batteries for grid scale storage.
My main question is: what prevents others from making a megapack competitor and competing away Tesla's margin? Tesla's usual moat is better manufacturing and faster innovation but megapacks seem like a simple and straightforward product and, well, a battery with an inverter is a battery with an inverter. What am I missing?
There already is, and has been, competitors to the Megapack in the marketplace. In fact, Tesla wasn't the first to design, develop and commercialize a battery backup system for the grid, they just figured out how to do it better and cheaper than their competition which is why they are constantly winning bids from the public utilities.
@@S2kDude36 Do you know any company/product names of those competitors? Anyhow, I suppose others can try to improve their grid battery systems and if they succeed this will cause Tesla margins to go down.
Not sure what you mean by "will take over". Yes, large profits will be made, but with the single 40 GWh factory the megapack volume will be roughly one tenth of vehicle sales this year (let's say 20 GWh megapack production and 200 GWh vehicle production in 2023).
Sure, there is a way to go yet, but everyone is saying energy has (a) unlimited demand (b) stupid margins and (c) is ramping much faster because of LFP, etc. And while the competition is there, Tesla has enormous brand recognition. High-profile companies in Australia complained that their battery and energy storage solutions were just as good, but goverments went Tesla for the pr factor.
The growth of the megapacks business is independent of the expansion of renewable electricity generation too. It replaces peaker plants at a fraction of the cost.
Absolutely the megapack because it is the best return on investment and at the higher price point selling one means you make more than what you made from all the cars sold in one month.
Let's get as many of these systems online as fast as possible. Our local utility plans to replace the old coal plants with natural gas peaker plants. We need clean solar and wind with battery storage instead.
Some versions of the Tesla Model 3 already use a LPF battery.The LFP battery sacrifices high rapid discharge required for ridiculously fast bursts of acceleration, but despite lower energy density not range, as LPF batteries can in regular use be fully charged and discharged, where as NMC batteries should in regular use only be up to 80% charged and down to 20% discharged, and as stated LPF have greater charge/discharge cycles. LPF batteries are definitely better than NMC for static storage applications, but sodium batteries are better still than LPF for such applications and have the benefit of being manufactured from a cheaper and more abundant raw material, sodium rather than lithium. Sodium static storage batteries are already commercially available and will only get better.
I thought Sodium Ion still had a way to go? From a google article Aug 2022 "Sodium batteries still need significant work. So we don’t want people to think this is ready-to-use technology. [We] still have a lot of work to do before commercialization.." CATL had announced Sodium Ion this year though..
@@grahamcook9289 Thanks for that. I looked up their website and they talk about them being a good replacement for lead-acid batteries. Wikipedia has a comparison table: Volumetric energy density 75-165 W.h/kg (Na.Ion) vs 120-260 W.h/kg (Li.Ion) for about 25-50% the price of Li.Ion (based on prototypes and product announcements). Faradion have one battery installed, so still a ways to go yet, but interesting to track. I'm sure Tesla will buy them all.
Just one problem. CATL = China in the equation. Does not compute because there WILL be a major disruption in that element of the supply chain. I’m sure Muskow has a plan B so that could be a topic for a future episode.
Can a private citizen buy a megapack and install it in his backyard and charge it up with solar panels... are the megapacks for sale to individuals?? I mean even if it charges slowly once is full it will just be topped off everyday and if you got a week of cloudy days you are ok, until the sun comes out again and recharges the megabuck again... is this possible??
It's cool that you are bring attention to this! I have experience in this sector of the economy and will inform you tesla is not even the biggest player in the DRMS game. The competition is very real and very high and Tesla is behind. They have a great name that people do want.
Tesla insurance is another sleeping giant. Low cost insurance offered to Tesla owners using FSD will also promote the adoption of this pure profit product.
And insurance also offers an investment model, they can invest much of the reserve funds needed for insurance and grow the reserve cash on too of the base profit of the service.
Tesla did well in 2020 and early 2021 but not so great now, Tesla stock is volatile and has suffered several corrections along the way to its current high valuation. And if the stock reacts as it did during the 2020 stock split, waiting may not be the best decision for investors. It might sound basic or generic, but getting in touch with a financial adviser was how I was able to outperform the market and raise a profit of $350,000 since Jan 2022. For me, its the most ideal way to jump into the tesla market these day
The truth is building a good financial-portfolio has been more complex since covid, so I would also recommend a professional support in times like this. This way you can get strategies designed to address your unique long-term goals and financial dreams.
@@yvonnejoordan My Financial Advisor is “Yvonne Annette Lively” I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care supervision. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so.
@@akibeekymre4880 I just looked up Yvonne Annette Lively online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals and scheduled a call.
The $2.6m is including installation for 1 2mw unit which makes it pretty uneconomical. The actual cost for the MP is 1.8-1.9m for 1 unit or 1.6-1.7m for 5+ units.
Uneconomic to whom? There is a regulated side to the energy market where they are guaranteed a return on their invested capital, so if they buy 100 of these suckers, they can simply add it to their expenditure, apply to the regulator for an 8% return on the total investment, then divide by the amount of electricity they need to deliver, and that's their charge rate. Add to that, government mandated levels of battery storage and its a no brainer that these will sell.
@@howtomanagetech I mean buying just 1 2mw unit and paying $0.7m for installation. I suspect most installations will be multiple units so average revenue is likely to be around 1.7m per unit rather than 2.6m in the video.
@@Dynamacrtm I wondered about how many packs you would get installed for that fee. The build is easy but the testing, connection and certification can be hard.
@Moosetick2002 sure, but don't forget, it was the government that put in electricity in the US, and roads, and the internet, so they have form in making some good decisions every now and again.
Cycle a battery once a day. That can happen. In South Africa we cycle batteries 3 to 6 times daily. So that mega pack will last 3 years? Give or take, until it starts degrading.
Heat pumps will be as big and maybe bigger than mega packs. No one has their eye on this but Tesla is likely to build the first heat pump plant in the US in the next year or two. And it will be highly automated. These will be nothing like heat pumps currently used in housing and larger buildings today.
Tesla's price drop is significant! ask those who bought b4 the drop how they feel... FSD isn't worth the $15 they charge (maybe $5k). They should correct the current problems and improve their products and it'll be worth more...
The reason we hear more about Tesla vehicles is they are interesting consumer products. The Megapack is an industrial product, often used to offset peak electrical demand. It’s too technical for the “average-Joe.” The cost for building and operating a Peaker power plant is about 10x greater than a Megapack. Coal & gas fired Peakers are bad for environment too.
