another thing to keep in mind that a lot of people miss is that for WAR, replacement player doesn't mean "league average", replacement player means "promote whatever minor league chump is available for a nominal sum" (no offense to minor league chumps); AKA, *bad*.
“I’m about to read off the most shocking thing to ever come out of a GM’s mouth” Ah so this was filmed before the Mariners GM confessed his dirty secrets to a... Rotary Club.
@@FoolishBaseball I don’t know whether to be happy that u replied or throw my phone against the wall for the level of padanticness... also love from the UK :)
I never thought about how much more of a home field advantage a well built baseball team has than any other sport. As a GM, you can literally make a team that is built to win in your own stadium and it will have a significant impact at home games.
People always moan and complain about the Yankees trying to stockpile power hitting lefties to “porch” opposing pitchers, but ultimately it’s just smart business to take advantage of the unique opportunities that you have
I said this on another channel, but I remember going to one of the games during the Rockies' inaugural season way back in the early nineties. I was probably around 4. Still have some of the merch. It is really just so sad how they haven't really achieved anything in almost 3 decades. Kinda like myself...
Amen brother. Just keep praying to Tupac for hope he comes back. Cause everyone knows he fled to Cuba with Fidel Castro. So, when he returns to the US, everything will be good
The Mariners have at least understood their problems, their rebuild is going well, and they have a lot of potential with Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodrigues in as the outfield of the future, but also guys like Dylan Moore and Evan White who could become core pieces as well
Thank you for saying basically exactly what I have been saying about my favorite team for at least a decade. Other things that the Rox need to consider: Investing heavily in platooning. How is it that almost every year, all three starting outfielders are left-handed hitters, with the fourth usually being a lefty as well? Wouldn't it make sense to have a right-handed hitting outfielder or two to balance out the lineup in a division that routinely features tough left-handed pitchers? It works for the Dodgers (who have oodles of money to spend that the Rockies don't - or claim not to) and the Rays, who have even less money to spend than the Rockies. Giving players more off days (which ties in with the above). I don't have data to support this, but it seems that playing 81 games at altitude every year wears the Rockies' players down. They're routinely near the top of the majors in IL days, and all but the very best players have a sharp drop-off in performance in the second half of the season. It's wonderful to run the team's best players out there for 155 or so games, but if they could perform at a higher level and stay healthier by playing 135-140, it seems like it would be worth doing. Becoming hyper-focused on acquiring and developing pitchers whose skills fit the profile described in the video. Low-spin four-seam/slider pitchers aren't exactly in high demand. If that profile works in Coors, there's a market inefficiency to exploit. Those pitches are also going to be less affected by the differences in ballparks as players switch between homestands and road trips, so at least in theory, it might help normalize their pitching performance overall. Figuring out a way to help hitters adjust to the difference between home and away performance. The numbers posted by good hitters who have left the team (like DJ Lemahieu and Matt Holliday) have shown that there's likely more to the home/road splits than just Coors inflating players' hitting stats. Don't get me wrong, there's no doubt that Coors does just that, but watching Rockies hitters struggle on the road even against poor pitching indicates that at least part of the issue is probably related to having to adjust to how much harder the ball breaks at lower elevation than it does at Coors. I don't know if there is a solution to that problem, but even just figuring out a way to help the team's hitting be league-average on the road would certainly be worth a few wins per year. Accepting that the team needs to invest more heavily in both analytics and scouting. The Rockies have been among the slowest teams in baseball to embrace analytics, and it shows in the players they have signed in free agency over the last decade (yes, even in the O'Dowd era, as much better as he was than Bridich). They have also long invested less in traditional scouting than most teams, but have, whether through the quality of the scouts they have employed, or just dumb luck, managed to generally find enough talent to be competitive in cycles. They're clearly behind the curve, but if franchises like Oakland and Tampa can do less with more, Colorado should be able to as well. Unfortunately, all of these things start at the top. Ownership and the front office have to be willing to commit not only to making changes (whether they're these, the ones outlined in the video, or something else), but to actually enacting and sticking to a long-term strategy for team building rather than changing directions every 3-4 years, as has been the franchise's tendency throughout its history. If Monfort and Bridich can't or won't do these things, they simply shouldn't be in charge of running the team. Unfortunately, the Monfort family simply makes too much money through the mere act of fielding a team for them to actually care about whether it's any good; after all, if the team's consistently good, they're just going to end up paying the players, coaches, and staff more money and they might turn a slightly smaller profit. And if the fans always show up because the ballpark experience is so good, it's pretty easy for Bridich to help keep profits up. So until fans get fed up and stop coming to games or someone comes along with a godfather offer to buy the team, things sure don't seem likely to change.
Goddammit man being a fan of this team is so fucking frustrating. The management is a complete disaster that only cares about money. I love the stadium, most of the players, and the idea of the team. I've been a Rockies fan for longer than I can remember, and that's the problem. There are hundreds of thousands of Rockies fans just like me in Colorado, many of which will go to the games anyway because the sunsets are beautiful and the balls go far. The greedy owners still get money in their pockets, and as long as they field a half-average team, that never changes. The Rockies have never won their division, and I wouldn't be surprised if they never do. They haven't won a playoff game since 2009. My one good postseason memory of them came from the 2007 World Series run, when I was five years old and they got swept anyway. They've been the definition of mediocre at best for their entire existence and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Every time the Rockies get a good player that's fun to watch, management fucks it up and gets rid of them in favor of worse players that only perpetuate the cycle of cheapness and mediocrity. Fuck Bridich. Fuck Monfort. Fuck this organization. I'm gonna cheer for the Cardinals this season.
Are you saying Walker and Helton weren't good players that were fun to watch? I get your points, but be careful with extreme words like "every," "any," "always," "nothing," "never," etc.
@@davidtran2026 I understand why they decided to change the name. The Native Americans have been screwed over since Europeans got here. Anyway I agree the team could have chosen a number of good names: Spiders, Rockers, Erie's, Erie Hawks, etc.
I know this isn't something you do, but a sequel detailing what the rockies have done to stay bad (or havent done to get better in the future) would be super interesting. Their refusal to trade guys on expiring deals and their insistence on drafting and developing pitching when they play at a higher elevation that any other team is baffling. It's almost as if they've doubled down on all their problems instead of "[looking] themselves in the mirror and saying we are the rockies and we play in coors."
It amazes me how professional baseball executives don't understand their own park environment's advantages and are confused when their pitching signings don't work out, yet some dude, although a very smart one to be fair, on youtube is able to explain it in minutes. Keep up the great work, Bailey!
@@JWex-jy7sk Eh, nobody’s perfect and those were at the very start of his tenure; the fact that he got off the hook for Hampton by trading him to the Braves only rebounds into his favor How many GMs actually do that? Cut their losses on their prized acquisition, let alone get something for him in return?
Your profile picture is wildly disrespectful. That was my friend’s cousin, Sam, and he passed away over seven years ago of an incredibly rare disease called progeria. People who contract progeria are fortunate if they live past their teens. Educate yourself before you go using photos you presumably think are somehow funny.
@@deadboytr3 It was a picture of someone with progeria. Progeria is an extremely rare disease that causes children to age rapidly. People with progeria have very short lifespans, and they have noticeable deformities.
Sounds about right, I have never lived in Colorado but I have always been a fan of the Rockies. Mostly because I thought their uniforms and colors were the coolest in baseball when I was young. Then as I got older, I heard a ton about "Coors field" this and "Coors field" that and was like "Man, to think, they have such great players playing so well in a field that is a detriment to them!". I've learned more as I got older, but, I do still like them. The Rockies may suck, but they are also the biggest enigma in baseball. Possibly the strangest team that exists based purely off the location of the team itself. Thank you for the video, Bailey.
This video aged very well. Put it this way. The Nationals improved by 16 games to 71-91 but finished 14th in the NL (based on strength of schedule so St. Louis was 13th despite the same 71-91 record.) Colorado was 12 games behind them and 59 wins next year might be a stretch. Their offense was putrid last year for a team spending 1/2 their time in THE hitter's park. Freeland and Gomber were the only hurlers to start at least 20 games and if not for Justin Lawrence's improvement who knows how many games are lost late.
When you talked about the first baseman problem, I remembered that the Rockies had Roberto Ramos in Triple A. He left, and now he's crushing baseballs in the KBO.
People talk about the Mariners as a hopeless and irrelevant franchise all the time, but the Rockies have played 31 seasons now and have attended only 1 World Series (which they won 0 games of) at basically the midpoint of their life to this point. They've finished with a winning record only 9 times, and 90+ wins only 3 times. They've won only 39.1% of their road games, worst of any team since 1993. They've had some great players like Larry Walker, Todd Helton, and Nolan Arenado, but even those guys aren't as great as the Mariners of the '90s-Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, and Edgar Martinez. They are the only franchise to have never won a division title, and their 24 postseason games and 10 postseason wins are both by far the fewest for any franchise.
Hey foolish, do you think you could do an in depth look at perfect games? Perhaps how difficult it is to achieve one and possibly some controversial almost perfect games(Galarraga perfect game taken away by Jim Joyce, Scherzer taken away by Jose Tabata)? It’s just an idea I’d like to see in a vid, I know you’ve definitely got a lot of stuff already lined up, so if you can, just give it a thought. Great vid!
This strategy by Dicky Monfort is 100% intentional. Rockies operate on star power because people who go to Coors Field are not typically hardcore baseball fans, but casual fans who want to drink beer in a micropub and hang out in a beautiful ballpark. In fact, Denver has such a diaspora population from other cities that you'll more fans of the AWAY TEAM in some circumstances. They can field a crappy team, save money and pretend everything is fine because they know at the end of the day, they're still going to sell tickets because they have one of the most scenic venues in entire city.
It still baffled me that the Rockies went from a power-hitting core of Larry Walker/Andres Galaragga/Vinny Castilla/Dante Bichette and later Todd Helton to deciding: Let's bring in a humidor and store the baseballs there so we can attract average pitchers in free agency while still playing in a very favorable hitter's park rather than leaning into the fact our ballpark is a launching pad and target big boppers. Let's try and neuter the one thing that makes Coors Field a major home-field advantage. Genius.
Being a rockie in colorado is one thing now hes a cardinal in st.louis, big difference he will love being loved in st.louis and always looking toward post season.
As a lifelong Rockies fan I've been having a tough time even thinking about or engaging with baseball after this trade, but I gotta support one of my favorite youtubers. Great video Bailey!
I’m curious about how you suggest other teams should craft their clubs! Agreed, they need to play Coors baseball. Know your park and strengths/weaknesses. It’s a big park and they need outfielders that can cover ground and love that you looked at pitch selection with pitchers there too. Did not know about the Magnus effect but love learning things like that from your videos!
I’ve always been a Rockies fan. I went to the 2007 WS. This video made me want to cry because of how God Damn accurate it was. Shortly after Arenado left, I said the same thing: tear it down. Let Marquez, Story and Blackmon go. They don’t deserve this. For the first time in my entire life, I’m going to cheer on the Padres. Rockies have to change how they do things.
March 2021: "The padres built a super team and the giants are positioning themselves to be great in the future" the 107-win 2021 Giants team: "well, well, well, how the turntables..."
The point about Coors is by far the most important here. I've always thought, get pitchers who keep the ball down, get fast outfielders to cover the ground, and either get a bunch of power guys or people who can find the gaps which are larger than in other parks. Use the surroundings to our advantage instead of using them as an excuse as to why we are rubbish.
Been a Rockies fan pretty much my whole life and wow it hurts sometimes. Even our winning seasons are usually just based off some good gameplay at home. At this point it feels just like all management cares about is maintaining that 8th highest ticket sales in the mlb and couldn't care less if we win over .500 ever again
I would love if you did a video about the 2015 blue jays. Such a stacked roster and fun team to watch, and the bat flips and benches clearing and stuff, was such an exciting team and disappointing end with how everything has gone since
In noting that there is a significant difference in contract leverage for a team vs player option, its a little unfair to say that the Rockies didn't want Nolan to stay and opt in when its a unilateral right that the player has, unless of course they went to great length's to ensure that he would not opt-in. Its reasonable to say that they did do so, but it bears consideration that in the event that Nolan tore both ACL's and needed rotator cuff surgery on his right arm (likely destroying his overall value - Hopefully that never happens), he could have simply opted in and the Rockies would have borne that albatross. It feels like there was just little planning to put the pieces around him and build a proper team. I mean imagine how fucking hard it would be to build the necessary pitching for sustained success in that market and with all the issues (real and imagined) with mile high stadium. it feels like the Rockies are doomed to perpetual mediocrity, but to me the beautiful thing about basebell is often that just doesn't matter. Look at the stadium, atmosphere and general ball park experience, to me baseball is so much more than winning, its a mirror for life. The Rockies have had a panopoly of dudes in their reasonably short lived experience that are role models and icons to kids. Nolan plays the game right, hearing Chuck Nasty talk about ball and how he prepares his body and mind is inspirational to me at a desk job, and they have a bona-fide stud in Trevor Story! Even if players never win and never really do anything notable, they can still be a favourite just for being who they are. Being a GM at that ballclub would be a career death sentence just like it is to a starting pitcher. I still love the Rockies, in much the same ways as everyone loves the Mariners. For a sport that prides itself on intermittently tanking for draft picks and factors it in as a part of the organizational life cycle, its reasonable to assume that some teams just don't have the environmental and organizational capacity for sustained success. Why cant we embrace that reality, and join in the wonder when something incredible happens. Thanks for getting me thinking too Bailey. Been watching since the start and love the glow up. Foolish BB for Commissioner
We all know one big superstar can't carry a baseball team to the Promised Land, but the fact they spent the same amount of money on the eight different players as they would've done for Nolan... and got a -8.0 WAR in return... That's just... difficult to wrap my head around that level of failure. Remember, a negative WAR does not mean "below average", it means "below REPLACEMENT". As in, BELOW a below-average player!
had no idea how bullshit their 2018 was, but as a dodgers fan i'm used to LA underperforming their expected W/L. even this year as they're going on their league wide f-you tour, they're severely underperforming. their run differential is nearly double second place yet they lead the best record race by only like 5 games. but i'll forever be grateful to the rockies' management for donating wins all these years XD
The issue is that Monford knows coors will always bring in profits, if not from Rockies fans then away team fans. He isn't going to sell anything accept the future of the team
