With so many watch channels out there producing similar content, I think you’ve found a distinct angle from which to discuss the hobby. Really thoughtful content, love it.
I love it. All these different companies have different strategies. Tissot’s strategy: let’s build watches that people want to buy! I love my Tissots, I have two of them.
Was saving for JLC Reverso, they moved the goal by prices increase, I'm over JLC now, sold my Master Control and forget about this brand, connection lost, interest lost. Money goes elswhere, lately more into microbrands, as you well said here, microbrands have to try harder to deliever and compete at the 1 to 2k range this is where I found my joy now.
💯 - maybe one can walk in and get a better deal; just not something many of us want to do. A business school case on how not to bring new customers to your brand.
Seriously who the hell buys an IWC for that much?? They're damn near identical to how they're always been. Granted I haven't checked one out in about 5 years but I can't imagine the quality shot up with the price.
Tissot is doing something right. I bought three this past year. A 35 mm PRX, a 40 mm PRX Digital and a Tissot Carson Gent 40 mm quartz. They are all gorgeous watches and I wear them in rotation with my other watches.
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch Would it? Baume & Mercier Riviera is around half that and it has the same movement, thinner case, and a display caseback. I don't see what you're paying for with the Ingeniuer other than the logo on the front, which to me is not even that compelling of a brand.
You are correct that Tissot just gave many people a watch that they wanted. They priced a watch at £400 which for most people is a weeks wage instead of a months or a years salary. Simply they looked at a very desirable design, produced a case shape and added a dial design that brought the look of a £40,000 watch into the scope of office workers. They really should have taken the PRX off the dial and put on AP ( Absolutely Plagiarised ). Pretty damn cheeky is you ask me but it does show what people really want but are happy to take a look -a -like. Me ? For this kind of money I prefer to buy something like a Seiko MOD, interesting, unique and keeps people working at home and in sheds gainfully employed. Power to the people not the big CONglomerates.
Your extraordinary reviews deserves a better name for your channel...something simple, one word name that can be remembered....no one will tell someone else "have you seen this watch or that watch"? Give it a thought....you are in perfect time to do it....do it!
God I love you; not in an intimate way. Your spotlight on these brands truly exposes the intelligence and not so intelligent thinking of these conglomerate Swiss manufacturing board rooms! Keep up the amazing analysis; keep them honest 🙏🏼⌚️
Excellent analysis. I remain impressed by Swatch Group as the masters of segmentation and economies of scale. I imagine they're making a healthy margin on the huge volume of those entry level Omegas they're shifting. Even if they're nowhere near the average selling price of Rolexes. Plus Tissot is performing well in the toughest part of the market. And Longines had a solid year too.
Swatch have definitely better succeeded at tiering their brands compared to Richemont for example. Not everything is performing but they do broadly speaking know how to be a conglomerate 😊
Thanks again, Mike! There are very few utubers I follow that I know that require more than one pass to distill the insightful analysis that you routinely offer. Your “juice” is uniformly worth more than one “squeeze”! On behalf of so many of us, thank you!
I really liked how Cartier watches looked in pictures. The other day I was in a store that had an extensive display of the current models. I was shocked to discover that I did not like any of them for real.
I've said this before but I think Cartier hold their spot simply because they have a perceived high value, most of the hot sellers cater to women buyers and visibility in smaller towns. You can find Cartier almost anywhere and I'm sure people buy the watches shopping for their other goods while someone would only buy an Omega or Tudor if they were specifically shopping for a watch.
I like the ladies ones because they are mostly dainty. The mens ones were just much larger than I imagined them, and the crystal on some of them looked odd to me.@@msk3905
Thank you for the new video and the interesting topic. 👍JLC has increased its pricing considerably. I find the Memovox, for example, more than interesting and have put it on my wrist in a JLC boutique. But EUR 15.000,- feels a bit much for it...
Omega used to be the predominant brand in my collection. However, I have been losing more and more interest in their watches recently. Some models are way overpriced and with a very poor value retention. I don’t see watches as an investment, but I like to refresh my collection from time to time, so I only look at Omega in the preowned market. 30%-50% below retail price. Great video!
I fully agree, I used to have more Omegas than any other brand, but now I'm not interested. You can have 2 Omegas, and that is all that you need, a speedmaster moonwatch and a Seamaster Diver 300.
I can't tell you what to buy but I think you represent many of Omega's buyers. You see the value but you have been conditioned to view the brand as less than. Take the new white dial speedy for example there's nothing that they can do to make that watch better. At 8k there isn't one brand that sells a Chrono as iconic as it and with equal specs. Yet folks only remember the pre pandemic 5k cost of a non metas non coaxial speedy and want to pay the same old prices. I digress.
@@stanlob1223 Only a few years ago Explorers and Op were just as cheap. Times have changed. I'm this current market everything non Rolex or Trinity can be going for a deal.
Another absolutely brillant, spot on analysis. Congratulations! Unless I missed it, I am really surprised though that you did not mention Longines, which in my opinion fits your thesis of "if you make watches customers want, they will buy them" perfectly. I think it is the best value for money brand currently. As for IWC: I considered buying a Pilot chrono, but in the end I bought a Brellum (a micro brand I didn't know), which sells only online. The watch is amazing, arguably better finished than the IWC, for less than half the price. Having no marketing cost helps! And yeah, Rolex continues to nail it. Used to hate it, but 2 Subs later (and one OP on the wait-list) later, I love it.
Thanks 😊 Yeah. I cut out Longines for time. I didn't feel that there was a lot to add that wasn't covered by the general trend hitting the market and Swatch group in general. 😊
Personally I'm not seeing a ton, but my AD has many models on display and is very open that anything in two-tone or from the classic line is something you can get almost immediately 😊
I know for me, buying a Rolex of any description is a “Field of Dreams!”😂 However, personally I’d take an Omega every day over a Rolex, & yes the new white dial Speedy has piqued my interest!😍👌🏼
During the bubble of 2022-2023 there seemed to be no limit to how high prices could go; the higher the better. Now the bubble has burst, the economy is soft and the speculators have gone away, and many brands are left holding watches which are overpriced for this new market.
Agreed 💯 most brands had head in clouds thinking this would go on forever and raising by crazy % now like you say high prices on current models and not enough customers so what do they do now .....
JLC is uniformly loved by watch reviewers, and as you note they're clearly wasting this free franchise asset to promote their products better. Regarding Omega v. Rolex comparison, if you can't buy a "Speedy" in the showroom 6:40 you buy one pre-owned for less than retail, which you can't do with Rolex.
You are right. The PRX is the watch people want. It seems like everyone either wants one or has one already. My question is, though, what comes next for Tissot after the integrated bracelet craze is over.
Was looking forward to this video since the MS report came out. Always appreciate your market analyses, Mike, and this one was insightful and thought-provoking as usual. Cheers!
I remember asking my Rolex AD about getting a Pepsi or Batman-they said I’m more likely to get hit by lightning ⚡️! I ended up getting the 126711chnr Rootbeer. Great video as always and have a great weekend!😎
The market has spoken! Its interesting to see all these fancy brands and how many people actually buy them how that reflects into profitability. I would love to see other brands as well like Casio, Seiko, Citizen. Have a great weekend Mike!
Excellent commentary. Thank you. You say, in regard to Tissot, "because they produce watches people want." Exactly. IMHO, when a micro brand launches a watch that is a success, say Baltic's line up, some of the Nivada Grenchen's (Antarctic sold out!), Vertex, that's because a major player, like Omega or Longines, has failed to "produce watches people want." I'm a lucky man and I'd be happy to pay a premium for a luxury brand. Yet they are not on offer. I love classic designs with historical provenance. Omega has this in spades if they would only re-issue modern interpretations of some of their best sellers. I simply don't care for open hands or shark teeth indices. Breitling, on the other hand, is doing well by offering classically beautiful designs that people are willing to pay a premium for. All the best to you. With luck, folks in C-Suites throughout the industry are paying attention to your videos.
People are willing to buy premium Rolex models at retail a) because they won’t loose money down the road; b) to build relationship with an AD to be able to buy a desirable steel sports model, e.g. a Daytona.
Serious question: does ‘build the relationship’ really work at this pt? Unless you buy some ladies watch they can’t move, what have you done? The relationships were created long before the money printing, crypto money and social media entered the watch game. They’ll still sell every vanilla OP, Explorer they receive. And good luck ever getting a Daytona if you’re just starting now (unless you live in some area w/o a lot of HNWIs).
Not sure if building the relationship with AD works everywhere, but they definitely want you to believe it does. Reminds of Hermes where clients would buy just about anything for a slim change to get a Birkin bag.
@@WestCoastAce27 Even in the backwater area the AD will still most likely sell that steel Daytona to a special relationship customer- ie a "grey dealer" (meaning himself or a close family member). They don't just leave that kind of extra free money on the table for someone else. Why would they?
Scary to think that Breitling is owned by Venture Capital whose only goal is to increase short term profits at any cost: expect lower quality and higher prices in the future.
Completely agree. I bought 3 Tissot watches last year for myself and for gifts. As long as the product is nice and the price is right there is no regret in buying
So so true Mike, great analysis. I also think it's hard for a brand to convince you to spend more to go up their product ladder, when the buyer losses more the moment you walk out the store. That's a key difference with the brands that convince you to spend more, as you either barley loose or gain in value on your purchase.
I’m curious about Christopher Ward. I didn’t like their earlier designs, but the keep getting better and the more I learn about the brand, the more I like what I hear. The Twelve will be my next watch.
My wife bought me a JLC Reverso for my 50th birthday a few months ago at the current retail price. If I only could have turned 50 a couple of years ago she would have saved a significant amount. However, I’ll take the years of life over the cost savings. ❤
Tudor needs to discontinue some models like the tudor pelagos lhd to make them collectible. It has so much black bays variety that it is on the path to falling into the same mistakes as Omega. I think they don't check carefully before releasing a new model.
I say it all the time. Omega is not what it used to be. Stop making so many damn special editions, make your watches thinner, catch up to everyone else on power reserve, and make more good bracelets other than for the 3861 Speedy. An additional thought, I'm pissed at their executives for their decision making. Yes, Tudor is being positioned to put pressure on Omega with adopting METAS, so Omega moved their prices upmarket to keep a gap. But it's gone too far. Omega has lost its value for money moniker and is now in direct competition to Rolex, and if Rolex watches start to become more available (as it looks like they may be), or if the economy tanks, then they will be up a creek because any layman will pick the Rolex.
Went to a Rolex AD last week. Complete 180 compared to 1 year ago. Lots of staff, lots of smiles, and they registered me for a DateJust and a Root Beer. Even got a catalog. The SA even told me he loves watch enthusiasts. I then went to the Omega Boutique next door where I bought a watch two years ago. They didn’t look as excited as the Rolex staff. Maybe they didn’t like the Rolex catalog I was carrying LOL.
I have several of both, including modern daytona to vintage sub. Omega is more innovative than rolex and always competed directly with Rolex. Every layman wants a rolex but watch enthusiasts know omega is better movements, finish and nearly everything else except branding.
@@Sh0SUPERMAN I personally never understood why people think Omega has better movements in their watches than Rolex. Rolex movements have a much better power reserve, are more accurate (+2/-2 vs 0/+5 seconds), and have a better beat rate. Their movements also accomplish this with a traditional Swiss lever and don't 'cheat' with a co-axial. Rolex also innovates all the time. Maybe not as much as Omega, but people sell Rolex short in terms of innovation. They release a new model every 10 years. The last few releases were the Yachtmaster 2, Sky-Dweller, and 1908.
I like him and his videos, because he knows his stuff and even though he has probably worn Rolexes, he genuinely still understands the allure of a 60 dollar Swatch amd doesnt look down on the people wearing them.
Longines and Rado are both parts of the Swatch group. Oris, although a very cool company, has sales that round to 0% of the total Swiss luxury watch market. That is not an insult or hyperbole, it is literally what the Morgan Stanley report says.
@@frankhujsa821 I know Longines and Rado are part of Swatch, I wanted to know how they are performing as individual brands. We have the statistics for Tissot and Omega so this information must be available for other members of the group. I would expect Oris to be tiny unfortunately and Rado (and Certina) both to be well down the rankings, but Longines is traditionally a big hitter and should be well up in the top ten above Tissot.
SUPER Interesting, thanks again for a lot of sound thinking! I think your videos should be obligatory morning viewing for all Swiss watches marketing people. For most it would thoroughly spoil their day I guess😇
Great content, as usual. Thank you. Regarding Vacheron Constantin, I’ve felt for a long time that their reputation as ‘not quite a Patek’ is in some ways unjustified. When working on vintage to modern watches by both, the Vacherons almost always surpass Pateks in terms of finishing and build quality. That is no mean feat! A lot of what I’m talking about is hidden until you’ve started disassembling the watch, though. I guess this just shows that where these watches are concerned, the finishing and details only a watchmaker will notice play second fiddle to other factors when determining a brand’s place in the market. In terms of movement quality per dollar spent, Vacheron, especially vintage Vacheron are incredible value for money in my opinion.
Brilliant video is always!! Completely agree with your points. I wonder what JLC could then do better going forward.. I love the Reverso but as you very well have said is quite niche.. are they missing a “better” every day watch or a diver perhaps? Those two categories seem to be the more popular ones.. I think the Polaris it is a good watch, but I don’t like it enough to buy one.. I wonder if a lot of people feel the same way. Curious what your thoughts are.. thanks for posting such thoughtful and excellent videos. Cheers!!
That blue JLC perpetual calendar that keeps showing up in this video would be a dream come true for me. I wish I could afford it. Anyway thanks for your thoughts.
Interesting takes… I would agree that JLC & Breitling might be perfect examples of when you hit the glass ceiling with extortionate pricing. TBC (of course). Within the volume brands it’s not only IWC that is badly run, but also Longines and TAG Heuer (LVMH as a whole, actually). Management shake-up badly needed, IMHO.
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch I think that some collaborative spots with Adrian Barker or Andrew Morgan would be well received. They both write well and neither seems to be corrupted. Your business/branding perspective is not direct competition- so would only make for a richer discussion.
Interesting comment about upgrade paths between rolex and omega but in my view it is far more a sub culture phenomena and differentiation factor between these two clienteles where one is more lets say extroverted than the other.
Interesting view for vast majority of the population. The ultimate market segment . . . the ultra wealthy do *quiet fashion* . . . Where a person has billions - there is no need to impress others - no fashion labels etc. This market segment is tiny
Good point regarding Tissot and what the industry should learn about. People buy what people like, at the end of the day. Apart some few exceptions watches as products are a luxury that the average consumer doesn't need, to convince people to buy them you need to give them something truly interesting and convince them to give you (watch maker) the few money they have spared. I really like what Tissot is doing and they have fun and interesting watches which for most buyers are the gateway for true swiss watches. The new PR516 (mechanic, quartzes are a bit a meh) is awesome, I see it appealing people interested in the history of the brand but also (most important) first/second time buyers of a swiss watch.
Great video as ever. I don’t believe that brands like IWC, JLC ever forget about creating a compelling product; it’s always at the forefront of everyone’s mind. But you do need a bit of luck / magic to create something that resonates with the public and the zeitgeist. Like catching lightning in a bottle, it’s not easy.
Excelllent analysis. Curious what kind of fresh direction you think might work for Omega. Should they be following Rolex’s strategy, perhaps Cartier’s strategy, or is there something else unique they can leverage to achieve new heights of growth?
good analysis... for me, personally, I am having more fun looking at some less expensive but interesting micro-brands... I had that idea that I would jump from Casio->Orient->Seiko->Sinn->Tudor were I am now and then progress to something more luxury... but f it... I got to eat...
Excellent analysis. The difference in peoples willingness to upgrade with Rolex versus omega is interesting. For me, omega is synonymous with its tool watch offerings. I just really don’t have an interest in a precious metal version of a dive watch, so it’s steel/titanium or nothing for me. Rolex has more non-tool offerings that are compelling in a precious metal format. So I do wonder if it’s these that people are buying when the stainless steel submariner is unavailable or are they in fact buying the gold submariners? I suppose I should also clarify that for some reason in my head, the Speedmaster is a tool watch but the Daytona isn’t, but I am not sure that’s a symmetrical judgement.
The problem is twofold: 1) monetary value - because of the high cost, people confuse it with prestige and resale value and not what the watch was made for e.g. Tool watch - measure speed and so on and 2) Not understanding the watch - what makes a daytona different to a speedie. When I look at watches, I do the following 1) why do I want the watch:dress, sport or tool 2) is aesthetically pleasing 3) what's the movement like.. Now compare watches that fit all 3 and the make a choice. If you are worried about value buy one the holds value but you won't be measuring speed, instead it will be an occasional wear to show off. Or, buy the watch on secondary market below retail and use the watch as its been meant to be used and forget the price: it's for the long haul dummy!
I don't know anything about watches, but I've been observing and reading about watches, the industry, brands, marketing and I've come to one conclusion: it's all a scam! Especially the so-called “luxury” brands are not worth the money they cost. And that goes for all kinds of things, not just watches. For me, I don't see much difference between a good Tissot watch and a Rolex or Cartier. I'm talking about differences in quality because each brand has its iconic designs. But for me, all of these watches will need maintenance someday and they will all last a lifetime if taken care of properly. And in the end it's all a question of quality and perception of prestige, which marketing is largely to blame for, as "luxury" spends millions to instill in people's heads that it is luxury and that is why it is different from everything else. For me Tissot is luxury because have the same quality as large "luxury brands" and the models are perfect in design. Am I right or wrong? I love the "Le Locle" Tissot series and I think is the perfect balance between excellent design and quality for my entire life. Someone enlighten me because I need a watch, I don´t have one!
There is an argument that for the "extra" you get in quality on a Rolex for example, you're proportionally paying way more for the marketing than the actual extra quality.. 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch yes, it´s what I think. I don´t like Rolex designs. I´m more Cartier and Longines type of design but I love the Tissot Le Locle. He has the same vibe... Thanks for the feedback!🙂
I refuse to spend thousands on a brand that spends millions on advertising at show jumping, golf , formula one, etc. I don’t want my money going there. And I’m anti-big corporations. I do have respect for Omega however. So. Great video. It’s education for me - as I wish I was able to go to the British Watchmakers event….
You really nailed it here. 💯. I strongly support your view. I want my money to go for the design and manufacturing of the watch and not for marketing or celebrity endorsement. Thar is why I am not interested in Rolex or Omega. Let alone the higher end brands.
Frankly speaking, i have rolex, omega, tudor in my collection. Just recently I bought USD 850 Tissot Heritage 1938 salmon dial. My excitement is the same with tissot when walking out of AD! Tissot did a great job lately.
Just found this channel. Certainly agree with you regarding omega. The issue isn’t even just the precious metal but the “limited edition”. For example if you want a dateless Seamaster 300m it’s MORE expensive than the date version because of the James Bond relations. It’s same price as a Sub (ish) and that’s where a lot of people would walk, then get fed up at waiting for a Rolex and just go for another brand.
I think the point about upgrade paths is facsinating. I also wonder if two tone is what people associate with a quintessential Rolex. Growing up, Rolex in my mind's eye was always a two toned datejust. I would consider a two toned Rolex before any other brands. I opted for a 114060 from my AD a few years back though.
I believe there is something to what you say. I have two two-tone rolexes, and I love them dearly. But, would I ever be inclined to spend money on a two-tone model from Omega, or Breitling, or IWC, etc?? I highly doubt that I would
I have too agree, I bought a Tudor Pelagos LHD love it, then a Blvgari octo, 2 moon swatches then finally got offered a Rolex datejust 41 Wimbledon, I think a lot of the watch companies believed there own hype, omega, panarai, iwc, etc, people buy them from their AD to get up the list for a Rolex
Mr. Mike I think you hit the nail on the head about premiumization with Rolex. I bought my first Tudor a couple of months ago (Ranger). Now I’m saving up for a Pelagos then eventually a Rolex. That would be my entire collection of only 3 watches. But Rolex will be the end goal.
Normally, ultra-premium prices are charged for handmade goods of the highest quality and rarity. Rolex has stood this age-old economic model on its head by pitching mass-produced watches at snobs who know everything about status brands but next to nothing about horology. They have faked the rarity part of the formula via the Authorised Dealer follies of the past few years, and the handmade part by hiding how little craftsmanship goes into these watches by stoutly refusing to allow factory tours, even for customers who have literally thrown away millions on their products. Want to get a Rolex snob angry? Just mention that Seiko is an older company than Rolex! Then pause briefly, and add, " . . . but, then, so is Timex."
I still believe that Rolex is doing well because they are called Rolex. 13.000 dollars for a watch is absolutely insane for any regular person, and it only works because those regular people want to pretend they are more wealthy than they are.
great video, as a 20 year watch enthusiast I'll give my take on the omega vs rolex average price difference: I don't believe it's, they don't have a steel sub I'll buy a two tone. That person leaves, they can't afford the two tone. It's that the prestige chasers who have real money want to differentiate themselves from the, "hey I saved up for 2-3 years and bought a sub, I've made it" crowd by buying watches those guys can't afford, cosmographs, precious metals, etc., where omega has not convinced that market their high end watches in that category give the same prestige (they don't). Real watch enthusiasts know Omega watches, in general, are Rolex level quality (if not higher), plus w the availability, many enthusiasts land on the SMP300/AT side of things. It just doesn't say Rolex on the dial, it says Omega. As a Tudor fan, they've gone in the wrong direction with the wannabe trendy, gauche, celebrity crud. Moonswatch is a hit for Swatch bastardizing Omega's name but a disaster for Omega, did Rolex make one? They would never. Enforced they aren't in the same league as Rolex, right or wrong, especially with the 50 watches per store crap rollout. For VC, the all gold 222 reissue (brad pitt, NBA players, etc.) singlehandly put them back on the map as an "it" luxury brand, and that gets them a bump.
Tudor had several years when new models went to a premium on the secondary market. In the end buyers didn't want yet another Black Bay so demand, and hype secondary prices, fell. They need another winner that isn't BB based. The PRX must have a lot to do with Tissot's success. I bought the recently released 1938 Heritage COSC model. That has been under the radar like many Tissot releases. I got a significant discount. I'm sure they want to make what people want but can they come up with another PRX or get anywhere close?
Rolexes demand is so high, that they do very well in “recessionary” times for watches. Obviously stock and real estate markets are doing well, but the watch mania of 2019-2022 is over. And Rolex has been sucking up the customers who scoffed at the crazy price increases of JLC and even Omega. It’s not that hard to get a Rolex DJ now from an AD now. And so those that weren’t able to get a Rolex the last 3 years are now doing so instead of going for the now more expensive omega.
Again, agreed on all counts. Also: PE is cancer. H Moser & Cie (absent from this video) is THE brand to follow. Laurent Ferrier is on par with GF in terms of finishings on some models. Lastly, GP is nowhere to be seen. Or talked about.
I think Swiss watches are getting under s lot of pressure, first from Apple selling 50 million watches for a fraction of a Swiss watch, second the price increase to improve profitability is just pushing out new customers as well as watch enthusiasts.
If you build it, they will come. Absolutely right. The Black Bay was a big hit and the Tudor brand benefited. Now, it feels like the Black Bay's moment is over and Tudor's prominence will wane with it.
Great stuff as always Just a small note from the very beginning as to non-Swiss brands, particularly the Japanese. You mentioned Seiko and Casio, but forgot about Citizen, a large conglomerate, that owns Swiss brands and other Swiss watch-related companies.
to make it quick: can anybody tell me a better analyst of watches and markets like this great guy and his channel : this watch , that watch…if not… let’s put it this way: we all can be lucky to be his subscribers and hopefully he will do his great analysis , comments and eloquent speeches for a very long time❤🍀🙏
The reason that the report is Swiss-only is that their data is Swiss-only. They use Swiss Watch Federation data, which pulls from METAS and COSC data and from member data. There is no comparable data from Japan, Germany, UK, US, etc.
After my own miserable IWC experience, I'm thrilled to see them slipping. I've never felt so let down by a company's product or so suckered by their marketing.
6:40 I don’t get your point,with Omega you can can get a regular speedy, so why would you upgrade? It’s like if apple limited the production of iPhone so people could only find the 1TB at the store, sure a lot more people would “upgrade” because they have no choice and they want an iPhone, but how many customers would they lose? And is this what you really want?
I agree it's not as simple as offering upgrades. Rolex forces people to buy two toned and solid gold dj to get on lists for Op and submariner. So they are moving double the units using unfair practices. Imo the only way Omega can pass Cartier is if they make models that dominate the women's watch segment and start creating more wait-list for the popular models. Omega would have to sell 4x as many watches to compete with Rolex because the average cost is so low.
