The State of NPB Foreign Hitters 

Hey guys! here are some more fun facts that didn’t make the cut: - The average foreigner from 2014-2022 hit 12HR and had 0,9WAR per season - 35% of foreign hitters only played a single season in NPB, these players averaged 0,2WAR per season - Every single foreigner that hit 20HR in a NPB season got re-signed, save for Garrett Jones in 2016 (he hit 24HR for the Tigers) - The best foreign hitter based on WAR per year was actually Dae-Ho Lee! He averaged 4.2WAR between 2014-2015. - Alcides Escobar put up the worst season of any foreigner, when he had -1.9WAR for the Swallows in 2020, hitting a single HR in 402 PA. - Out of 98 qualified foreigners, all of them (somehow) managed to hit a HR in NPB, impressive since some of these guys were insanely bad. That’s all folks! If you want to check out the full database you can head over to my twitter @lucasborjapt, happy new year to everyone and let’s hope 2023 is kinder on these hitters :)

Perfect, now I have a new video to show the "he's gonna rake in Japan" crowd. And yeah, it's ridiculous how the short-leash approach still applies despite NPB's obvious jump in skill level since the days of Bass, Cromartie, and Bryant. Even then, Bryant and Cromartie were solid MLBers before making the jump. The fact that O'Grady is now a Hanwha Eagle just sucks. He seemed like he was geniunely willing to put in the work to get better. Also, tbf it wasn't just offense that killed Rojas Jr.'s NPB career. It was killed by signing with a Central League club in general while being defenively useless. A guy like Adam Walker managed to tough it out, but there's a reason why Greg Polanco is now a Chiba Marine

Bro your content is so good. Would you consider doing a video going in depth on the Tokyo Big6 league, I feel like people only talk about the NPB or high school koshien but I’d love to learn a lot more about their college league

I think it’s a combination of NPB talent getting much better to the point that the guys they’re bringing in, the fringe AAAA guys or guys who are basically done in the bigs, aren’t basically just gonna “rake.”

Amazing video. Now I’m interested in foreign pitchers in NPB. Like a Miles Mikolas

I love how they do a dramatic zoom in on where the ball lands for the Japanese broadcasts

Well researched, great content.

I think another major factor is how much better pitching seems to be getting in Japan. Average fastball speed has steadily been on the rise over the past few years, and when you look at aces like Yamamoto , Sasaki, and others developing all over the league, its no wonder foreign hitters with steadily reduced playing time are struggling.

Lucas Borja is awesome, love reading his stuff on the reddit. Thank both of you guys for making so much quality and accessible content for the rest of us in the anglosphere. I only write game reports on the reddit in season, you guys are the real MVPs of the community.

Great video as always!

It would be funny if it were the case that the reason why NPB teams have had such short leashes on foreign players is because they haven’t really noticed just how much the league has improved over the years.

Based on my 5 years of management experience in NPB in the OOTP world, foreign hitters that do well in Japan tend to have above average contact (55+), above average eye (55-60+), at least average avoid k (50+), and above average power (60+). Pure power bats with bad avoid k and low contact don’t work in NPB.

I did not know they had costco in japan

As a foreigner you are expected to do .300 & 30 Homers or you will be out of a contract, and some people just never adjusted to the pitching sytle in Japan in their first year and they are out. Most high school drafts can pretty much do .250 from day 1 so unless you bring significant more value to the team immediately, it makes no financial sense to keep paying high import salaries on the hopes that they eventually get better. Nippon Ham is usually quite patient with imports, sometime it pays off in Laird, more often it ends in Wang Po-jung or Alcantara

i think we should reconsider WAR as "replacement" player is too subjected.

on the one hand, I can understand why NPB teams would exercise such little patience with foreign hitters considering underpaid fringe major leaguers are a dime a dozen in the USA. They require such a heavy investment both in wages and organizational structure that they kinda need to show immediate results to justify the expense. But on the other hand, if you're going to sink a lot of resources into a foreign player, wouldn't it make sense to try to make the best of it? I watched Mel Rojas in 2020 (thanks covid) and I was convinced he could be a solid bench bat in MLB, much less a good-to-great hitter in NPB. Sometimes it takes time! He improved year-over-year! What more do you want??

Marwin Gonzales just signed with the Orix Buffaloes.

some of these foreign signings are odd , so maybe teams are already changing the way they see a foreigner can succeed? Astudillo and Marwin Gonzalez won’t even hit 15 homers if they play everyday . Alcides Escobar and Freddy Galvis aren’t power hitters either and I’m sure we can name a very list of guys that would never come close to 30 if we go through all the hitters

I’m a Japanese fan of the orix buffaloes but I completely agree with your conclusion. Japanese front seem to be conservative yet inpatient in some way. Regardless the foreigners, for example the orix buffaloes change their managers quite often even in the middle of the season. Same goes for the scouts, they watch the performance of the players for like 3 years and change the scouts. The good side is they hired some really good scouts in 2014 who signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Masataka Yoshida although Yamamoto didn’t even go to Koshien and Yoshida was small and had weak arms. (They still got fired 3 years after the draft)

Arigato for the video (for those who dont know thats thank you in japanese btw)

How does this compare to foreign hitters pre-2014?

Another thing is, these teams pay a couple million to these foreign imports, and they just cant wait for the players to improve since theyve invested into them a lot, and they would rather invest in cheaper and younger domestic prospects that they see potential in ig the Orix approach. Honestly, if these teams were to do something about it, they should import younger prospects cheaper than the ones rn, and wait 5 years for them to grow i think.

Why did they allow Balentien to pass Sadaru's record but refused to do so when Alex Cabrera and Tyronne Woods got close? I remember they just stopped pitching to Cabrera and apologized after intentional walks because they wouldn't allow a foreigner to eclipse a Japanese legend.

Japan needs to go sign international prospects asap pls