How do you go from the ultimate success story and the hottest shooter in the entire NBA culminating with a 90 million dollar contract, all the way down to bench warmer in just 2 seasons.
There are some clear reasons for the downfall of Duncan Robinson, but even more intriguing, there is a clear way out of this darkness for him, back up to glory.
In his only third career start in 2019 Duncan Robinson shocked everyone when as an
anonymous player he went 7 for 11 from downtown.
The entire NBA would soon learn his name as he also had blistering hot performances of
8,9 and 10 threes on incredibly high percentages for that volume.
His movement without the ball, running through screens and shooting off of dribble handoffs from Bam Adebayo bec ame a staple of the Heat offense.
Robinson was such a sniper that season that he was tied for third and this is virtually second most in three pointers made.
But what’s impressive is the percentage he had at that volume.
You see that out of the top 10 shooters, nobody comes close to his efficiency.
This is the ultimate combination that every player dreams about. Make a ton of threes at a high percentage. 44.6% is not just high, it’s astonishing.
In the playoffs however it was a bit of a different story.
Every round Duncan would have a few blazing hot performances, but a few stinkers as well.
So in the first round against the Pacers he had a 7 of 8 and 2 of 4 games, but was also cold in 2 games shooting 2 of 8 and 1 of 7.
That was the trend against the Bucks as well in that shocking upset where the 5th seeded Miami demolished Milwaukee who were the favorites to come out of the east.
And against the Celtics, despite some bad games, he still exploded in a couple of them and helped Miami reach the finals against all odds and expectations.
This is where Duncan got completely exposed and some of the issues slowly became apparent.
And no, it’s not the efficiency. He shot 39.7% in the postseason and while that is far from the elite accuracy he had during the season, almost 40% in the playoffs is still deadly.
The Lakers exposed him on the defensive end, and unlike the previous rounds, where you could also see teams occasionally hunting him, this time everyone had their focus on these 2 teams and every deficiency was obvious.
Time after time, whoever was matched up with Duncan just attacked the rim, and usually either scored or got fouled. It was evident how helpless he looked defensively.
This was especially the case with Lebron who would constantly look for the switch in pick and rolls to try and get Robinson on him. And from that point on, it was game over.
The Lakers exploited this matchup all the way to a championship.
So, coming into the next season the entire league knew 2 things about Robinson. That he could shoot lights out, and that he couldn’t defend. This was clearly written on the scouting report, which made things more difficult for him.
Having in mind all of that, he still had a great regular season. Number 4 in three point makes, at almost 41% from downtown.
Sure this is a big drop from the astonishing accuracy the previous year tho still in the absolute elite of NBA shooters.
That following postseason however is where the problems got magnified. The Bucks had Miami completely figured out, and feasted on the Duncan Robinson matchup.
This was especially the case for Khris Middleton who looked like a big brother playing against his little brother. It was brutal for the Miami sharpshooter who looked like he was hanging on for dear life on defense.
So despite a phenomenal 7 for 13 shooting from downtown in game 1, Robinson became unplayable.
So from 36 minutes in game 1, his playing time declined in a shocking manner to 23 and all the way to 15 in the final game of this 4-0 sweep in the first round.
This is a dramatic moment in Robinson’s career as the realization that his defense is truly a big issue and makes him useless when it matters the most, mentally hit him hard it seems.
Nobody could have known that however, since in the offseason Miami gave him a 90 million dollar contract, banking on the fact that they will try to improve the defense around Duncan with the addition of P.J. Tucker and Kyle Lorwy, 2 terrific defenders.
But even tho he only needed to focus on the offense, astonishingly
Duncan shot just 37% from outside. This is the efficiency of a slightly above average shooter, and not a 90 million dollar sniper.
To make matters even worse for Robinson, his teammate Max Struss exploded out of nowhere, going from 33% to 41% from behind the arc. Ironically it was almost the same way as Duncan himself emerged a couple of years earlier.
This, along with the fact that Struss could hold his own on defense, made him a much more suitable option for the team as the season progressed. Robinson’s minutes declined.
And the situation escalated in the playoffs.
Once again it was the same old story in game 1 against the Hawks.
26 сен 2024
