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The Volatility Smile - Options Trading Lessons 

Patrick Boyle
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The volatility smile is a real-life pattern that is observed when different strikes of option, with the same underlying and same expiration date are plotted on a graph.
These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. amzn.to/2WIoAL0
Check out our website www.onfinance.org/
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Volatility smiles are implied volatility patterns that arise in pricing financial options. It corresponds to finding one single parameter (implied volatility) that is needed to be modified for the Black-Scholes formula to fit market prices. In particular for a given expiration, options whose strike price differs substantially from the underlying asset's price command higher prices (and thus implied volatilities) than what is suggested by standard option pricing models. These options are said to be either deep in-the-money or out-of-the-money.
Graphing implied volatilities against strike prices for a given expiry yields a skewed "smile" instead of the expected flat surface. The pattern differs across various markets. Equity options traded in American markets did not show a volatility smile before the Crash of 1987 but began showing one afterwards. It is believed that investor reassessments of the probabilities of fat-tail have led to higher prices for out-of-the-money options. This anomaly implies deficiencies in the standard Black-Scholes option pricing model which assumes constant volatility and log-normal distributions of underlying asset returns. Empirical asset returns distributions, however, tend to exhibit fat-tails (kurtosis) and skew. Modelling the volatility smile is an active area of research in quantitative finance, and better pricing models such as the stochastic volatility model partially address this issue.
A related concept is that of term structure of volatility, which describes how (implied) volatility differs for related options with different maturities. We will be learning about that in tomorrows video. An implied volatility surface is a 3-D plot that plots volatility smile and term structure of volatility in a consolidated three-dimensional surface for all options on a given underlying asset.

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5 июл 2024

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Комментарии : 48   
@josephpement9285
@josephpement9285 3 года назад
This guy understands the difference between financial entertainment and financial education!
@ThaiEgho
@ThaiEgho 4 года назад
Finally someone on youtube who actually knows what he is talking about.
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 4 года назад
Thanks!
@maxdakka7973
@maxdakka7973 3 года назад
I love how this video only has about 6000 views and actually talks about how option prices behave, whereas a daily Meet Kevin video gets over 600k views and while saying absolutely nothing.
@andreasb8232
@andreasb8232 3 года назад
Thing is, most people get into trading to get rich quick and are not genuinely interested in the topic. The irony is that the more you "learn" from so called gurus, the worse you become as a trader/investor.
@user-ej7ss8ei2g
@user-ej7ss8ei2g 2 года назад
Don't feel bad, a lot can be said about it.
@anurag.tensordev4032
@anurag.tensordev4032 2 года назад
@@andreasb8232 precisely, like every other profession this is a profession, we dedicate 3-4 years of our lives getting a degree and learning about that trade but expect to become a profitable trader or investor in a month or 2. given the kind of talent this profession involves one should be willing to spend even more time and be dedicated to it, that is one of the reasons they lose money and then blame everything else other than their behavior
@OaknWood
@OaknWood Год назад
Check out tech stocks. Smiles are making a comeback. The market is about to go boom boom.
@chromashift
@chromashift 2 года назад
the crispness & clarity, of an oft "black magic arts" subject, is refreshing; thank you. The best "gentle introduction" ... with nary an equation in sight.
@finsgutus
@finsgutus Год назад
This simple video taught me more about real-world options trading than anything I had ever seen before. Amazing content. Thank you!
@gemeen_aapje
@gemeen_aapje 2 года назад
Mate, your channel is so underrated!!!
@Thorr89
@Thorr89 4 года назад
Clear & Concise ! Look forward to more
@dariusd2003
@dariusd2003 3 года назад
One of the best channels on RU-vid. Thank you!
@Aaron-mg9ke
@Aaron-mg9ke 2 года назад
Took you all of 4 minutes to explain what my university professor has been unable to articulate in 4 months (and counting!). Thanks
@dimitrivancamp1013
@dimitrivancamp1013 3 года назад
I LOVE how with many instruments, the volatility smile becomes far more convex AFTER a tail event, after which it is typically less likely for that fat tail event happening again in the following weeks, which makes for some interesting more complex strategies
@dariorivas3579
@dariorivas3579 Год назад
Well, not necessarily more complex. You can just sell OTM puts AFTER a big drop and it's super simple and very often you just keep the premium. Only to do with options of stocks you are ok to go long if assigned, of course.
@justtryanother7290
@justtryanother7290 3 года назад
My god finally, not some idiot yelling and screaming to the moon for 1 million views lol you’re amazing thank you.
@dontwanttojoingoogle1799
@dontwanttojoingoogle1799 Год назад
Wow -- what good commentary! Very high quality discussion.
@ericlubisse8461
@ericlubisse8461 3 года назад
I enjoyed the video. You explain the concept really well
@travispatt907
@travispatt907 2 года назад
Excellent video, so clearly explained and great examples. You are a pro my guy.
@kimuagirl
@kimuagirl 4 года назад
Very helpful video, thanks!!
@chairman6652
@chairman6652 3 года назад
Thanks Patrick very Clear and Concise . I've Subbed 👌.
@JP-qf4mf
@JP-qf4mf 4 года назад
Thanks! Great video!
@AJ-yo7rb
@AJ-yo7rb 5 месяцев назад
Awesome video mate, subscribed!
@andrewmunlin5263
@andrewmunlin5263 2 года назад
Wow, great info! Thank you.
@theodorle8147
@theodorle8147 2 года назад
Great video!
@anindadatta164
@anindadatta164 3 года назад
Very crisp and clear video. I always wonder how option sellers decide the implied volatility at which to sell a specific strike option , as the stock prices mostly donot follow lognormal distribution. Do they find the probability of option expiring in money by the other fat tailed parametric distribution the stock price movement resembles, set that probability equal to N(d2) of BSM, thereafter find IV from N(d2) and price of the option as per BSM? Just a wild guess, will be highly appreciated if u make a video on this topic.
@rickjohnson247
@rickjohnson247 3 года назад
At 3:00 you mean lognormal returns not prices
@Charlesfrostman
@Charlesfrostman 5 лет назад
Thanks for the clarification on BSM. With the high importance of volatility modeling; may i request a video on the Bergomi model and it's relevance to option pricing. Thanks I appreciate your content.
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 4 года назад
Thanks, I am putting together some ideas for new videos right now and will add that to the list.
@JC-cr5ty
@JC-cr5ty 2 года назад
How can we take advantage of vol. smile. Should we roll options closer/further from ITM/OTM as volatility increases/decreases.
@mademaroc
@mademaroc 4 года назад
Excellent thank you so much !
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 4 года назад
You are welcome!
@mademaroc
@mademaroc 4 года назад
Patrick Boyle I had a look at your video channel ... there are many videos i am going to watch in these coming days... really thank you. But wondered if you had any videos about arbitrage in volatility trading.
@TheFu1709ck
@TheFu1709ck 4 года назад
excellent content :-)
@PBoyle
@PBoyle 4 года назад
Glad you enjoyed it
@rossfriedman6570
@rossfriedman6570 Год назад
Volatility skew only exists with derivatives?
@chrisvonguggenberg
@chrisvonguggenberg 2 года назад
I guess with a deep in the money option you pay less in absolute terms for volatility but more on a relative basis. In a deep in the money call option most of the premiums is for the in the money portion of the call.
@neuvocastezero1838
@neuvocastezero1838 Год назад
So, before 1987, did the volatility curve more resemble a "V"?
@rexylem
@rexylem 3 месяца назад
4:57
@rockyn3193
@rockyn3193 3 года назад
Wouldn't an call option with a high strike price relative to the current underlying price be an in the money call as opposed to an out of the money call? I 🤔
@jarenshyers9024
@jarenshyers9024 3 года назад
No, a call option with a strike ABOVE the current price is out. A put with a strike above the current price is in.
@rockyn3193
@rockyn3193 3 года назад
@@jarenshyers9024 hahaha yeah omg wtf was i on about... 🤦‍♂️I confused what he was saying @ 5:20. I thought he meant high underlying price is more likely to be an out of the money call
@TheNick1569
@TheNick1569 3 года назад
When you realize he knows what he is talking about and has barely any views vs mouth breathers who don't know the first thing about topics they speak on it becomes very easy to see why the market rewards the smart disciplined participants and takes away from the lazy, uninformed participants.
@helenachase78
@helenachase78 3 года назад
I can't understand that ... I want to learn but its another language
@rossfriedman6570
@rossfriedman6570 Год назад
You're saying Black Scholes isn't completely accurate because people who sell at the money options price in a premium?
@ProfAzimov
@ProfAzimov Год назад
He is saying that the black scholes model isn't completely accurate because it assumes a perfect world
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