*This episode has been updated to improve audio quality.*
In this episode we give plausible expression to a fundamental relationship we will discover between observed data and unobserved hypotheses. The relationship allows us to invert conditional probabilities. The Reverend Thomas Bayes discovered this rule based on a suggestion by Abraham deMoivre. It was all but abandoned to a frequentist approach led by Ronald Armyle Fisher. The Bayesian approach is (probably!) better named a probabilistic approach to inference. In most textbooks there is a puny chapter devoted to Bayesian calculations and usage. In this course, there is only a short reference to the relatively less principled frequentist approach learned as the mainstay in nearly all basic statistics course. There, you just had the short, and nearly the only reference, to a frequentist approach. Absolutely no calculus is required here, just the ability to count up to 17, work with rational integers, all with the algebraic knowledge that any integer divided by itself is the integer 1 and that any integer or algebraic expression for that matter times 1 is just itself.
23 окт 2024
