I wonder if people that experienced the 2008 crash had it easier because this market conditions are driving me to insanity, my portfolio has lost over $27000 this month. alone my profits are tanking and I'm don't see my retirement turning out well when I can't even grow my stagnant reserve.
Even in this whirlwind, there are chances to be had, thus an increase in volatility is not always a bad thing. You have an opportunity to rebalance thanks to volatility. In order to help you diversify your portfolio, you must hire a professional
The bigger your acc is the bigger your assets with plummet...also how old are you? Do you have time to sit in the market or are you going to retire in the next 5 years?
The current market/economy is unnecessarily tougher for boomers/senior citizens, I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.
Just buy Gold, the government has failed us or just try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your investment is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses.
Yes, gold is a great investment and a good bet against the devaluating dollar, been holding some for awhile now, I’m grateful my adviser’s moment by moment changes in the market are lightening quick, cos who know how much losses I would’ve had by now.
In fact, I'm not sure whether I'm permitted to say this, but I'd suggest searching for “Margaret Johnson Arndt” as she gained a lot of attention in 2017. She is both my coach and the manager of my portfolio.
I think the current market/economy, atleast in my country, is way tougher for young people since you can't really buy a house, you can't kids or your finances will be paycheck to paycheck, you can't move out of your parents homes because while some people have really low rents due to seniority on nthe house the young generation who wants to move out and get themselvees a place they can call home would simply make them bankrupt, even if you have a really high education. So, atleast in my country, which is Portugal, I think it's way worse for young adults and adults than it is to seinors.
What's not factored in the historical data is the change in investing instruments and methods available in the stock market. The rise of passive, index and commission free investing have allowed for a constant supply of money (fuel) to feed the market, so to analyze market moves based on historical data when all these things didn't exist might be like comparing apples to oranges.
@markc5771 More like comparing oranges and grapefruits - both are citruses, but one is bigger. Today's market is bigger, moves faster, and is more extreme - more dangerous!
More the problem is, If everybody can see it, then it isn't an edge anymore. The more worthless historical graphs a youtuber brings up the more desperate they are to be right instead of an investor/trader. People love fear, it sells like sex. Macro bears fueled this whole record rally. They all thought their obvious recession data was gonna be a score. Too obvious.
That is absolutely factored in... The investment instruments available in 2006 and 2000 were VASTLY different from those in the 1980s and 1920s. Yet, the inversion caused the same result. That's because we are in a never ending battle between learning from our past mistakes and getting excited about new "fool proof" ways of making money. It's not rocket science, it's psychology. And if there's one thing that's certain -- people/countries/economies will find a way to get greedy and overextend themselves with "new instruments". Thus, it does not matter what instruments are available -- bubbles will form, and bubbles will burst.
The one thing I didn’t hear him say was that stocks tumbled AFTER the recovery of the inverted yield curve. We have not bottomed out yet with current yield curve. We shouldn’t expect stocks to tumble until the current inverted yield curve begins to recover.
Love the analysis. 2 things that are very different from past inversions. First is population decline specifically 1m+ people are leaving the workforce every year now in comparison to those joining. 2nd is the supply side issues with the reshoring of manufacturing back to the USA or to other countries besides China. Other factors as well, but the variables in the current economic model have never been seen before, a wild ride it will be.
the stocks could drop that much because in 1929, people were on 10x margin to buy stocks to begin with, and then when the stocks dropped, they would flee by selling at whatever price they can get (margin call, I guess, so there also were forced selling).
Hello, I'm not sure why you believe that 2x is the upper limit. Just to make sure, I've just checked that on several of my brokers, I can readily access leverage of up to 5x without needing to verify my status as an accredited investor. It's important to note that not all brokers provide the same level of leverage; however, it's quite feasible to locate those offering at least 5x leverage. Additionally, there are alternative approaches and tools that can indirectly amplify your leverage (though it's implicit that this heightens your risk). The big players have even more options to leverage. @@winterheat
The thing I've learnt as an investor so far is: Everybody has been talking extensively about the inverted yield curve and the upcoming recession. The markets have already braced themselves and the possibility of a recession has been priced in (S&P500 lost 1200 points between Dec 21 and Sep 22). What everybody should be worried about instead is the stuff that nobody talks about. The next big crisis will come out of nowhere, just like the housing bubble, Covid or the banking crisis lately (from which we got away by a very narrow margin).
Yes real black swan events. Maybe a good topic for a new vid about that from GoT? What possible black swans are there, the repomarket, unregulated shadow banks, China internal markets or war Taiwan, BoJ sudden changing policy with high impact for EU/US/UK central banks? :)
@@eatcake3073 have another, more generic question: does it even make sense to try and foresee what the next “black swan” will be? I mean, in my humble opinion, you can attach whichever label you want to the next crisis, we can't predict when it will come, the only thing we know is that it WILL come, because it has to, a market without corrections is not profitable for the big players. Those who move the market need to buy low and sell high, and since they have the capacity to do so, they will decide when the next big correction will happen and it will happen when it will suit them best. We, the small fishes in the pond cannot hope to beat the market, because it is rigged, all we can do is to have a well balanced portfolio, more focuses in indexed ETFs or Funds, rather than single stocks, and ride wave resisting the urge to sell, it's the only way to protect ourselves and avoid getting eaten by the bigger fishes in the pond when the water is at the bottom mark.
How do you know the possibility of a recession has already been priced in? How does one determine this? Have all future possible recessions already been priced in, or just the next possible one?
It'll be interesting to see what man made disaster will happen next. Just need to realize that these depressions are human engineered. By humans for humans...
Sometimes looking far into the past provides insight. Other times it gives a false impression as relevant, but unaccounted for conditions have materially changed.
Every phenomenon has a rhythm or cycle, much like the four seasons of the year. If you were to look back just two months in the middle of summer, you'd still be within the same season and have a limited perspective. But if you extended that to four months, you'd have experienced two seasons, witnessing the transition from the warmth of summer to the coolness of autumn. Going back eight years, you would have seen this cycle repeat eight times. Just like the seasons, other truths have their own cycles which can only be fully understood by looking back through larger segments of time. By expanding our temporal view, we gain exposure to the longevity of these cycles, uncovering enduring patterns and deeper truths. Hence, the further back we journey, the richer our understanding of these fundamental truths becomes.@@HenriFaust
Very few people or channels have been looking at the data so objectively as you have and I have been following your analyses since the pandemic. Back then it was a lot more rudimentary and mostly just technical analysis, however, now the macro level historical and data comparisons add so much more depth and it fills me with joy to see how you guys have evolved and how i have evolved with you. Keep up the amazing work, mostly pointless and hollow trading videos get recognition and views on youtube, you are a breath of fresh air. Please keep doing what you are doing
There reason we have not had a Recession - Bailouts Every time there is a natural event in current times - they bail out. Stop the bailouts, and restore order.
that means you have been missing one of the greatest bull runs since 2023. this is a fear mongering channel since yesterday. he has always been like that since yesterday, fixated to the glooms and dooms, forgetting we are now in a new era.
if unemployment even has a little tick up, we are going to see things crumble quickly. Americans just don't have the economic stability as they did through some of these earlier recessions. Credit card debt is at an all-time high with many people having very limited to no savings, especially the z and millennial generations.
Insightful video. I just want to know best how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I'm 27, and earn nothing less $150k per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
When people have money, they spend it. And some people spend more money when they have more of it. If you want to improve your financial management, you should consult with a financial advisor.
@@devereauxjnr That's right, you can avoid the traps of lifestyle inflation by consulting an expert advisor to help you plan for your short- and long-term goals; it all comes down to proper guidance. Over the past two years and six months, I have seen my income build wealth and now have a fully paid off house and at least $650,000 in stocks. All this is the result of subsequent investments with my savings and the application of expert advice.
@@Tsunaniis-j5l Nice, who is the Financial Advisor aiding you if this is not much i'm asking? my retirement plans are going down the drain with my 401k particularly losing everything it gained ever since 2021.
You will see huge correction in Q3 2023! Right now, the market is doing series wave 4sand 5s,US Indics shall have 2-3 new highs! Dollar will go to 91-92 range before setting up a huge wave 5 which will drag down worldwide markets. So your yield curve analysis is spot on ! A few more months, the truth will be revealed 😂😂😂😂
The yield curve of yesterday is nothing like the yield curve of today. One major factor is the money supply, and the speed of money has completely changed. You add in employment and compare the productivity type and get a different picture. All I'm saying is that the yield curve is not a leading indicator anymore but a measurement of market imbalance. Plus, for the past 20 years, the FED has set the rate. The yield is not the canerry in coal mine anymore.
There is no limit on the debt ceiling until 2025. Should we be surprised if there is another "crisis" that occurs before then so they have an excuse to print more money?
in 2006 /07 you didn't have around 20 stocks moving the index alone....very similar to 73/74 nifty 50; the last time we had inflation worries, currencies problems OPEC.. Commodity /wage inflation, etc.
For me personally - This has been an under graduate, graduate and PhD class in the yield curve in under 14 minutes. I am so grateful that you have chose to create this content and share it with me (your RU-vid subscribers) 1
I wonder if individuals who went through the 2008 financial crisis had a relatively less challenging experience compared to what I am currently facing. The current market conditions are causing significant distress for me. Specifically, my portfolio has suffered a loss of over $27,000 in just this month, and my profits are diminishing. This situation is raising concerns about the potential impact on my retirement plans, as I am unable to increase my stagnant reserves.
In the midst of ever-changing market conditions, there are actually favorable opportunities to take advantage of, making heightened volatility not necessarily unfavorable. This period of volatility can be seen as an opportunity to adjust and optimize your investments. Seeking the guidance of a financial advisor or broker would be beneficial in pursuing your portfolio diversification goals.
Thank you for providing this valuable pointer. It was straightforward to find the contact information for her. She appears to be highly skilled and adaptable. As a result, I have scheduled a call session with her to further discuss my financial needs.
Fantastic video, i like to use the {10y/3m} yield curve inversion which started in Oct 2022 eight months ago. Over the last 50 years the average months it took for the S&P 500 to breakdown into a bear market was about 12 months from initial inversion so the bulls are still good until late Oct 2023.
The problem is this is an unprecedented environment. All previous inversions occurred in an environment with pyramidal demographics. That era is ending and so with it all existing economic models. Basically we have nothing in our current economic lexicon to describe how the amount of capital and advanced labor that has left and will leave economies over the next 3-5 years will impact capitalist markets. Does an inversion even still mean what it used to in that kind of environment? By traditional measures we could certainly see a full employment recession over the next 2 years, and that begs the question of what exactly is a full employment recession and what does it mean? We really don’t even know what that looks like or how it will work. My guess is existing measures of recession will fail to work and will need to be replaced by productivity per person metrics that measure the output and consumption in true per worker terms vs economies as a whole (and no gdp per capita is a horrible measure as it is overly bloated by free boomer capital and corporate debt). There really is no way to get around the shrinking pie issue so until we figure out the economics of this new model the true health of economies in the advanced world will be masked imo.
He left out the important 1980s inversion which was still much worse than the one today. It took almost 7 years when the inversion was at its lowest in 1980 to 1987 market crash. The inversion reversed direction and actually went into positive territory in the 1982 timeframe. The inversions and crashes in the 2001 and 2007 was a lot closer at around a year away from the bottom of the inversion. We still have a ways to go, but the train has already left the yard. Its only a matter of when the crash would happen and how deep it would be. Its hard to time the market, but I don't think we are there yet.
@@ahndeux I think you are right by saying "The train has already left the station". The Fed reserve raising rates has not had its full effect yet because of the AI tech boom but once that runs out of steam i think it will cause markets to correct significantly
A Bank crash/crash in the stock or real estate markets has less of an immediate impact on people's standard of living than inflation or currency devaluation. That the market is so negative at the moment shouldn't be shocking. If we are to survive in this economy, we need assistance right away. The ETF and stock markets are still quite volatile, just like the property market. Now all that's left of my $370K portfolio is ruins.
I think that personal and government debt levels are a lot higher than 1928/1929. Plus i wouldn't trust government issued employment numbers. In the USA you have people working 2 or 3 jobs and living in a car. It will all collapse very soon
Don't forget, Trillions of dollars worth of student loans go back into repayment status in October. A lot of people are struggling to pay their bills as-is, and suddenly they're going to have another $200-$1,000 payment due monthly. Many of whom will likely defer payment on for another six months until that second grace period is exhausted and payments are mandatory. That's about seven months and it could put a HUGE burden on an already lugging economy.
Your content is continuously consistent and so well outlaid for the channel. I love watching your channel and watch every video you put out. Keep up this incredible work. Many blessings to you brother. 👍😀
A spike in unemployement would trigger more bank failures and a serious credit event. But FED still gonna raise rates tomorrow. Its like going 200 km h straight to a wall without brakes and wishing the wall to stop the car.
Everyone keeps leaving out GDP. The biggest difference right now, is that the GDP is still above zero. All past recessions went into negative GDP combined with all these other factors.
I wonder, whether the susbpending of the U.S. debt ceiling won't influence the months after the yield curve inversion, and the depth of the recession. Basically it has been suspended until 1st of January 2025, which means during the president campaign they can print money. In Hungary the same happened, the goverment spent a ton of money to win the election, after 1 year of the elections they have the highest inflation in EU (30%, while other countries have about 10%), people are started to struggle. What do you think, should we worry about the unlimited debt ceiling? On the other hand the student loans payment monatory will be canceled from 1st of September, maybe that could be the trigger too.
Just because they are great opportunities in the stock market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I’ll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
You’re right! My portfolio is well diversified across multiple markets with the aid and guidance of an investment advisor "John Desmond Heppolette". I have been able to generate over $320k in net profit across high dividends yield stocks, ETF and bonds in more than eight months.
Your advisor really seem to know this stuff. I found his online-page when I google up his full names, read through his resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. I left him a note and booked a call session with him..
Learning is crucial for success in investing. Keeping up with current trends and strategies can help investors stay ahead of the curved and make informed decisions. I’m glad to hear that John Desmond Heppolette strategies and insights have been helpful to most of us. Remember success in investing takes time and effort, but with dedication, commitment and discipline is achievable..
It’s unfortunate most people don’t have such information, I don’t really blame people who panic cos lack of information can be a big hurdle. I’ve been making more than $25k passively investing with John Desmond Heppolette, and I don’t have to do much work. It doesn’t matter if the market is crashing, I will always make good profit returns.
Great presentation but I wonder with the current electronic markets/efficiency, ODTE options, current Fed intervention techniques and many other changes to the current market versus ones in the past if there really can be protracted year over year severe declines that are minus 50%+ top to bottom like 2000-2003 2007-2009 or just shorter volatile declines that last 1 month to 6 months at most
You are right. Hard part is all about timing. Yield curve is still negative. History has been telling us it's when the curve hit from negative to 0 and then to positive, the real crash is coming. At least that's what I found the pattern was. Just patiently wait for the Fed pivot, and yield curve change from negative to positive numbers, which I think is still half year to more than year away. Before then, I think the rally is still gonna continue a bit longer. Plus the election is next year, do u think Biden would let the economy crash before that?
@@zhu777hao Biden doesn't have a say over whether it crashes, but his puppetmasters certainly won't let it crash. He's been doing wonders for them, a perfect figurehead that allows the war machine to go, the money printer to go, and for new legislation that encroaches on the civil liberties of the people living in this country. They want four more years of this. They want economic destruction. They want mass surveillance. They want us to own nothing, and be "happy"
I will forever be indebted to you you've changed my whole life contiune to preach about your name for the world to hear you've saved me from a huge financial debt with just little investment thanks so much Mrs Pamela Willett
Yield curve inversion and recessions are loosely correlated. There are several instances where the yield curve has inverted, and there is no recession. Tech is going to continue to push higher, and I am anticipating the NASDAQ hitting 5,500 by 2027.
I bet the few times you mentioned occurred before 1980s or if was after 1980s, it would have been a brief dip for a few weeks or months at most. Every inversion since the 1970s has been correlated to a recession and even a market crash a few years down the line. It doesn't happen right away. There is zero doubt this inversion will cause a recession. The question is how deep and how long is the recession. China and other countries are on the front end of the recession since they are the producers of the products. They see low demand and a lot of workers are out of jobs recently due to the decline in sales and orders.
Unemployment is low, the consumer has no trouble accessing cash and credit. You may have several quarters of negative GDP growth indicating a recession, but with 1.6 jobs for every worker based on the JOLT report it looks like we can contract a bit without triggering significant loss in corporate earnings.
It's been practiced years in advance and has dedicated workers entire lives devoted to it's legitimacy. Look at the recent supreme Court case where one man spent 20 years spring chemicals on a train that was later than derailed and set on fire and Ohio although he was able to sue for damages to his health for developing cancer. The Pennsylvania railway commission had to respond due to the law from 1917 enforcing them to respond to any accusations against them and won the ruling in the supreme Court case. The 3 free families on top have been doing this to countries since 1870 and crippling economics in the process. War is good for business. This is why Ford, Mercedes, etc are still alive and well, and if a monopoly owns each market, then there's no extortion because there's no alternative.
This time is very different than earlier data in a number of ways. First of all you didn't have central banks in the market holding things up and manipulating prices as they do now. Second, employment will stay low because of the glut in jobs left by the boomers. Flately the demographics stink for jobs versus say the 1980 inflaionary spike. Plus it is the type of jobs. Third you did not have enormous deflationary pressure (that is just beginning) as a result of democratization. AI will push the prices of everything down. This is deflationary, not inflationary.
Your still at it, predicting a crash. How long now have you been at this for? I think if I remember right, about 8 months. I wonder how you feel about being out of this tremendous bull run?
I would be astonished if the SPX made a new all-time-high while the money supply was being contracted. I predicted like a year ago or something that since stocks had already fallen a lot in response to bad news, and the money supply was not increasing, that stocks would be choppy until the money printer turned on again. I predicted back then too that stocks might rally, but would not make new all-time-highs. So far it looks like my prediction was correct. Since the initial downturn in stocks, we've neither had a big fall nor a new all-time-high. But we're near new all-time-highs now, despite the money supply not being at an all-time-high, so my opinion is that stocks have mostly only downside potential at the moment. I don't know how far they will fall, but I don't own any, and I'm happy with that.
You can't compare pre-1971 data with nowadays. The gold standard is no more, the trust in the dollar is mostly gone. The next crash may be a crash that will never recover. I'm super bearish.
Yeah, never recover is pretty super bearish. Look, even if the us dollar is measured in wheelbarrows the economy will recover because Bitcoin exists. And even if, in such a scenario, the US has not backed itself with Bitcoin major companies will just be accepting it as currency by that point anyway.
You're saying the yield curve inverts when the inversion hit its bottom. But in the examples it inverts _before_ it hits its bottom. So you give times from inversion (actually inversion bottom) to recession that are too short.
Keeps your chart colors the same. When the stock is orange one one graph and black in the other it makes it difficult to follow along and know what I’m looking at when you switch graphs every 30 seconds
Just to be very clear. Unemployment is very low because people have no money on their accounts. They are in deep debt so they cant afford being jobless,so they they whatever job they can have, even if it pays 7.5$ per hour.
Hi Peter, how about providing a more balanced view? Will recession not materialise following this yield curve inversion? We have a strong economy, the labour market remains tight and corporate earnings are relatively stable. Retail sales and service PMI still strong.
was it like that before other recessions? it's all depends on government deciding to liquidate debt on heads of midlow income citizens or not as always
There's not always a recession after every yield curve inversion, but there's always inversion before every recession. IOW, look very carefully at all kinds of indicators.
Do the "market makers" (major banks, hedge funds & other investment firms) use AI programs that detect the number of PUTS vs. Calls on any stock in the stock market & then either "pump it" or "dump & short it" depending on which is more profitable? If they have this capability, then why would they not do so (you know just like the AI used in Las Vegas slot machines, they make sure the house mostly wins)?
You're asking if big money has access to information we don't? And if they use this to ensure profitability? Well they sure do... But price manipulation only requires large volumes really. They start the pump, sell at their targets to get price back down to their ideal buy-in price, and repeat. All day, every day. Doesn't even require AI really, but I'm sure they make use of technologies we don't even know about.
@@matt_nemmer I think the Biden administration is going to continue to keep the stock and housing markets pumped up through at least next year. No way they will allow an economic and stock market collapse until at least 2025. They will just keep putting more and more money into the banking system to keep it all propped up (despite inflation). This is a war effort now, since the US can't allow an economic collapse during their proxy war with Russia.
What your analysis is missing is that US debt saw a 100 year statistical sell off. So you need to put the yield curve situation in context of such 100 trends. Their only choice is to take this thing Weimar Republic, which means, print, print, print.
Spx is 4% off 2022 all time high and this channel has been bearish since the bottom. When does a macro economist say look I was caught off side I'll reevaluate the bearish thesis when there's a real change in higher time frame structure
Peter's analysis misses the "why" for all these inverted yield curve-instigated declines. Basically, all the ones he mentioned were caused because the Fed stepped and deliberately threw the economy into a tailspin. Inflation gets too high - the Fed raises rates - recession. Nine times since 1961, the central bank has embarked on a series of interest rate increases to rein in inflation. Eight times a recession followed. The only true “soft landing” - as significant rate hikes with no subsequent slumps are called - occurred in 1994, according to a March 25.
Peter's insight is really interesting, yet he has put his channel's quality at risk by first turning off the comment section and second by bringing it back with all these "fake" praising comments which obviously look unreal. One thing it taught me from this channel is to just look at simple facts, not over-complicating analysis. "The trend is your friend until the end".
No! The difference between 2022, the war in Ucraine and its effect on the oil market, and the war in 1973 and its effect on the oil market are huge!!! I lived through those years and I can tell you that the oil market was completely different. In 1973 oil offer was much more limited than today, and OPEC was a great part of that offer. In 2022 Russia has not the same weight as OPEC had in 1973. It's this simple the reason why you are not seeing the same crash and the economy is more resilient!
Actually, post-WW2 is a better comparison. US had similar federal debt levels, an inflationary shock from depressed consumer goods production and excess savings unleashed postwar, etc. Difference is that they had a plan to get out of debt and it drove the US into a recession. Then it unleashed the prosperous 50s. We have no plan to get out of debt, so no prosperous 20s, unfortunately. Just stagflation and eventually Fed yield curve control.
Adjust the S&P 500 for inflation - ie use buying power and you will get a better answer. Right now buying power is down 15 to 20% in my opinion so relativity while the market is up in dollars it is not up in buying power......... This is an important point to consider as you cannot just use dollars in value to determine the answer. Take this back to 1915 and you will very clearly see a different correlation. On the employment front use all adults age 18-65 and you will see a very high unemployment rate. Also look at the number of people getting some sort of government assistance and the employment numbers are way different.
Interesting historical overview, however I have a doubt about it's practicality as something relevant to the current world. Without taking into consideration the huge influx of money from Europe in "flight to safety" which is propping the dollar up in a world where everyone can invest into US stocks with a single click, and ignoring the unprecedented government debts, huge central bank interest hike (expected to go down which explains the inversion) crippling restrictions on central banks's options due to that debt and no way how to cap spending of the government... it is not that I think we well not have a depression (or even a bubble, look at the whole AI sector valuations), but I find pure technical analysis a bit hollow in this case.
it wasn't because with time lower interest rates weakens in effect and lower growth of interst rates give much stronger effect fake money must be detoxed if rates gonna still go up economy will do fine but inflation will be higher accompanying new growth
My question is, how much was the Fed telegraphing their future plans in the 70s-80s compared to today? You could make an argument that the recession/stock market drop preceded the yield curve inversion because of how much more transparent, understood, and telegraphed things related to inflation/yield are these days.
Now that everyone is so knowledgeable, how will the market ever crash if everyone keeps buying the dips and everyone continues to hold onto good companies? In the past, people panicked and sold good companies but now people will hold and buy dips.
The Fed really messed up by bailing out Wallstreet and giving investors a false sense of confidence that they don't need to pull out their investments are the backstop to this economy.
A recession implies mass unemployment so you need money, you can’t live from thin air and are forced to sell assets, especially if you have a family. People on the edge get nervous because they don’t know if they can hold but they want to, but if prices keep dropping, they are better off liquidating to survive and reinvest at the drop.
Why are you marking random points as "yield curve inversion" when its clear that inversion is any time the blue line goes below zero on your left axis? For instance, in '66 the yield curve was inverted, and stayed that way largely for 4 YEARS before there is a recession ('70).
It surprises me why everybody gets really worked up about inflation and inflation data. Inflation has always existed, and people have been using investments to beat the inflation. The stock market return, for example, always beats inflation. I heard of someone who invested $121k last October, and has grown the portfolio by more than $400k. I need recommendations that can give me similar return.
According to various sources, they compare this period rather with the recession of the 1940´s. That would be interesting if you take a look at that period in comparison.
The two factors are debt and inflation. When 70 % of people can't afford a $400 emergency vehicle repair, and do not have at least $1000 in the bank, and maxing out credit cards with 22-23% interest rates. The Penthouse guys are ignoring flyover communities and a massive recession has begun. Selah
Forgot the key item here $35,ooo,ooo,ooo,ooo. in debt and the US dollar in collapse. Last thing I want is US dollars which are becoming worth less each and every day. Silver and gold are the only safe investments.
While it's great to look for comparisons and precedents, what you really have to understand first is the reason why that happens. Specifically why is a recession almost always preceded by a yield curve inversion? If you answer this, then you will understand why it's not as simple as plotting a line and saying this looks like 1929.
Well I agree, maybe you can do a try? I also disagree, because those data are always based on different financial and market conditions, which are continuous changing. So over time the graphs are maybe suggesting specific events relative the same as before?
@@eatcake3073 yield curve inversion means money now is more expensive than money in the future. That is all it means and nothing else. There are many many many yield curve inversions that didn't lead to recessions. the famous line is "yield curve, predicting 24 of the last 3 recessions" anyway, this leads to a deleveraging as debt also gets more expensive and multiple reduction as future revenue isn't valued as much as current cash flow. and this is where it gets tricky. this *could* mean people taking money out of the bank, and liquidity drying up. that is what happened in 29, leading to a run on banks, and a chain reaction explosion of banks. Why would this not happen again? because now we have digital money, the fed could literally click a button and solve a liquidity crisis. but this could also lead to other things, like layoffs and deferred purchases, which is why this could stop inflation, and why they are doing it today. sometimes this even means inefficient workers get let go, and there is no reduction in GDP growth, no recession, but just pruning back the overgrowth. sometimes this leads to some debt in the economy like mortgages to not be worth it anymore if leverage was pushed to the max and suddenly the tide is turning. they get reposses and the properties dumped on the market, no one is buying on the way down and that's what happened in 07/08. totally different mechanisms and reasons. to say the graph looks like this is not good enough, I need reasons why we're not in a strong economy. because all fundamentals I see are amazing!
Recession was already factored in. The 1929 wasn't. 2020 economy was artificially propped up with the 'money supply,' thus when it was removed in 2022 we has a recession. Recession is already baked in the cake, The U.S treasuries are so unattractive these days, Guess we need another recession, and the cycle continues. 'We all know who rules the world.'
Good thing this Is government started recession, government started inflation by low interest rates and stimulus, snd not due to other circumstances like the times you mentioned. The market is much more complex than 1928. And we don’t have the issue with rates changing and people being able to get any mortgage with NINJA loans. We have been in a recession since last year and most likely coming out of it next summer.
