Three Pointers Have Ruined Basketball 

The fact that he spends hours plotting and making these graphs for us to visualize instead of throwing information at our faces truly shows why jimmy is the GOAT of basketball RU-vidrs

The Rockets missing 27 straight 3s in a game 7 is still one of the craziest things to happen in sports. It's like they were meant to lose that series

I think there’s a hidden advantage with the three pointer worth mentioning. Passing the ball around the perimeter is fairly safe. Turnovers and blocks, which don’t show up on shot percentages, are far more common inside. So while the points per attempt may be even, the points per possession when a team tries to score a 2 pointer end up being lower.

I personally think that the problem isn't the three ball, it's that the rules have made teams play soft defense and post moves harder to pull off.

This man straight up made me think 3 pointers need to be banned and then systematically dismantled my new found hatred for the 3 ball. Now i feel silly. Wat a vid bro

In a way that’s why Shaq was so dangerous. He was so threatening close to the basket that the Lakers used him to create incredibly devastating 3-pointers. Amazing how many overturns this video has.

The reason why 2-pt FG% is up, might be because players stopped shooting the long 2s and replaced them with 3s. This removes ineffective low% 2s, it does not mean that the 3pt shot is creating better quality 2 pt shots. Another point is that fouls are called more often now, these shots does not count towards FG%. This again increases overall 2pt FG%

I don't care about the three-point shots. The reason why I haven't watched an NBA game in years? Because it's all about offense now. No one has to "fight" for points anymore, every idiot runs to the basket without any interference and scores, it's ridiculous and frustrating. For decades, I've been hoping for the rule on hand checking to change again. So that we can see exciting, good basketball again.

The evolution of the sport is really something to behold. I don’t know what else can change the sport like the 3 point evolution did. Shows curry’s greatness

9:32 thank god - literally had zero idea which way this video was going - an art all in itself. What Morey forgets to add is his team was within 1% of the league average on long ball efficiency. Statistically this is on the money. 3 pointers are a self policing mechanism.

i was at a bbq a few days ago and 4 kids from 10-16 were playing pick up games they were all shooting 3's. when i played basketball, shooting a 3 was a last resort only to be used when we couldnt penetrate the defense and go for a layup or midrange. The way kids play no is so different and the NBA style definitely has impacted the playstyle of even games for fun

this is one of the best video breakdowns I've ever seen. Absolutely love it.

Growing up for me, Steve Kerr was one of my favorites for his role in the Bulls as a perimeter threat. How fitting that he ended up coaching the guys that helped make the 3 pointer a go-to offensive tactic in todays basketball.

Jimmy this might be your best work. There’s no other NBA youtuber that leaves me more interested, more mindblown, and more in love with the sport. Seriously man, no one does it better. Incredible work!

Fun fact: 2002 Lakers vs Nets Finals Game 4. There was a total of 28 3-pointers shot between both teams, 15 were made. Fast forward 20 years later 2022 Warriors vs Celtics Finals Game 6. There was a total of 74 3-pointers shot between both teams. 30 were made

My major issue with the logic: As players become better shooters over the years, the average three point percentage is about the same because that value equates the value of two and three point attempts. What changes is that more three pointers are taken and their average difficulty increases (longer shots, more of them while guarded).

This dude Jimmy is just… WOW!! MUCH RESPECT

After rewatching this video multiple times, I've come to the conclusion that the biggest thing plaguing the watch-ability of today's game are fouls. Can you examine that for us Jimi?

Dont adjust the 3 pointer. Allow the defense to do more than just stand there. The player with the ball is basically untouchable now a days compare to the 90s defense.

Today's basketball feels like there's two teams that go to separate courts and shoot threes at the same time. There are score keepers but each team doesn't know the other teams score. They finish at the same time and the score keepers get together and put each team's score side by side and you got your NBA result. Thank you

12:24, the players haven’t gotten better at shooting 2-pointers. They’ve just stopped taking the low-percentage 18’ to 20’ shots because it’s more valuable to step back and shoot the three. So without those low-percentage shots, the overall percentage of two-pointers made has risen.

Honestly, I think one of the biggest unspoken changes of shooting so many 3s is the offensive rebounding potential. As every coach ever has said "long shots make long rebounds". As much as you can box out, the rebound off a 3 goes quite far, and if a team is not shooting well they NEED to hustle for these boards. The Warriors were able to win in games when they didn't shoot well because they hustled hard, but in this game they were not trying as hard for the boards and the Celtics were. Put simply: If you are not shooting well, everyone needs to hustle for ORebs because there is no easier offensive rebound then off of a 3.

Great video man. Very in depth shoutout to u bro

Wow I’ve just been recently introduced to your content and I must say this is great work from beginning to end. Definitely gained a subscriber

Jimmy educates the nba community more than any news or sports reporting site/station

Jimmy: 3-pointers have ruined basketball Me: True. Something needs to be done. Jimmy: Actually, 3-pointers have kept the game balanced for decades since its inception Me: I agree. Please stop all these nonsense about nerfing it!

I am not 100% supporting every point you make, but I fully appreciate the angles you fight hard to drill. Excellent video!

Bravo! It's good to see creators using numbers and facts and doing research.

I’d argue that the 24 second shot clock slightly edges out the 3 pointer in the biggest change to the sport of basketball - if for no other reason, because if that hadn’t been implemented, the NBA might’ve ultimately folded and the pace of the sport might have never accelerated in a manner that allowed other revolutionary changes (including the 3 pointer) to emerge.

I just love how he shows the graphs and explains with it , just a beautiful way to educate. Thanks jxmy

Master class video by the way. Such a good analysis

Basketball has become corrupted. They decided to make it a clown show. No defense non-stop 3-pointers. Anybody that watches basketball and that has any perspective from the past realizes that the game has become awful. I used to be a hardcore fan but I find it unwatchable.

I know it’s left field, but I would love to see you break down the efficiency of teams winning after CHOOSING to call a timeout for a last second play vs letting the team play it out. Mike Breen’s call on Curry’s famous shot against the thunder started it off for me; “they have a timeout, decide not to use it…” My confirmation bias keeps affirming that not using a timeout yields better results, but I want some jxmy stat graphs to paint the picture. No idea how to efficiently get this info though.

Kobe predicted this before he passed. Mentioned that he'd noticed the game seemed to change in cycles. That the three pointer was becoming the core of championship basketball, and that it's normalization would eventually result in a way to exploit 2pt opportunities further. His insight into the game was always so interesting.

Great video, really enjoyed the history, charts, and production values. My one issue is with the analysis of the 2.5 pt shot. We plot the exact same 3pt value line less a 1/6th while leaving the 2 pt line unchanged. This contradicts your main thesis, which is that the 3 pt shot has found equilibrium in terms of balance with 2 pointers. What reason do we have to believe that the efficiency of the 2 would remain as high if the value beyond the arc drops and, presumably, the urgency to defend it does as well?

This is really fascinating. Have you done a similar analysis of FIBA where the 3 point line is closer: 6.75 meters (22.1 feet) at the radius. Even back in the early 2000s when I saw Olympic play you could see how the other teams shot way more 3s than the NBA did at the time. In many ways, partially because of increased international talent perhaps the modern NBA is much closer to the FIBA style. It would be interesting to compare the two (NBA court vs FIBA court). Thanks for this video!

As a rockets fan, showing every 3 point miss from 2018 cut me deep. Thanks for making me relive that.

I think what this shows is we’ve been through the “3 Point Era” and we’ll get a team soon that will bring something equivalent to Ajax’s total football. Achieving a perfect balance where the aim will be to increase point per shot as high as possible.

Nice video. An alternative to making the long shot worth 2.5 points is to make shots outside the arc worth 4 points and shots inside the arc worth 3 points. This is still a nerf to the long shot, but a lesser nerf. Something left out of the video is what to do about free throws. In the system I described, you could keep the free throw at 1 point, and then attempts would go up on fouls. This would change the strategy on fouling (somehow).

What is kind of odd is that the team the leads the league in 3 point attempts per game hasn't won the NBA championship since 1995. In fact, only four teams that have lead the league in 3 point attempts during the regular season have even reached the NBA Finals (going back to 1990). And 3 of those 4 occurrences happened in consecutive seasons (93, 94, and 95).

Honestly, the 3 point line levels the playing field in Basketball. Before, the game used to be a big man's game where height and size made such a big difference because majority of shots were scored inside the paint. The addition of the 3 point line makes shooting skill regardless of size and height very valuable. You can be short but still make a valuable impact as long as you practice how to shoot the ball.

My NBA knowledge has gone up dramatically since I started watching this channel, thank you Jxmy! If somebody knows the songs at 12:45 and 15:16 please let me know, you can be my girlfriend on runescape.

Back when there was no 3 pointers. Whenever a team with a odd number points or scores was because of missed free throws. But teams when even numbers scores still had missed free throws too.

Beautiful video. I`m not a basketball follower, but this was well paced, rich in history and facts and enjoyable to watch

I think the one thing that impacted the NBA more than the 3 point shot was adding in the shot clock.

So interesting! When talking about value of the shot, we also need to factor in on other thing. The difference in the offensive rebound likelihood for 2-pointers and 3-pointers. This also slightly reduces the value of the 3-pointer.

That was great. I only have a passing interest in basketball, but that was super well researched and explained.

I think there could be an argument that both the location and the value of a three pointer will tend towards balanced within a reasonable range given enough time. I suspect that the three seasons it was a shorter distance could have been a temporary trend of it being overvalued, it just needed more time to settle. If it was changed today I would expect it to settle faster given the amount of money in basketball and hence the amount of analytics a team uses. If you push the three pointer further out (within reason) fewer players take the shot and guarding at the line is decreased a little resulting in a shooting percentage that doesn't decrease too much. Move it closer and the opposite, more players (including less proficient ones) take the shot and teams are forced to guard at the shorter distance more tightly. So increasing the range would decrease scoring overall (fewer 3s but a similar percentage, I assume still slightly decreased, while teams focus more on guarding the interior making 2s more difficult) while decreasing the range would increase scoring overall (more 3s are taken and at a slightly increased percentage, less than what you would expect given current shooting percentages at that distance, and the interior is even more open and harder to guard due to the need to shut down 3s making 2s easier. The points per "3-pointer" I suspect would work similarly. Decrease it to 2.5? Fewer shots from range, mostly the elite range shooters still taking them, so a higher percentage are made and the interior is guarded more heavily as a range shot is less valuable. This would cause an overall decrease in scoring. Increase it to 3.5 or 4? More shooters, including less proficient ones, take the shot and teams are forced to guard it more tightly so the percentage decreases slightly. Meanwhile the need to guard it to tightly increases causing a less guarded interior and increasing the value of inside shots. So scoring as a whole increases. I would anticipate that the game would vary to accommodate the change and the focus on analytics would cause these changes to happen more quickly than in the past. Any shift in this way would alter the actual gameplay and tendencies, but would likely affect the relative value of interior and range shots by less. It kind of sits at a rough equilibrium where they are going to be somewhat consistent in value. If a team can get more value out of one they will focus on that more forcing the defense to adapt, leave different openings, and drive the values closer together again. Now, obviously if you make a range shot worth 20 points or move the line to 10 feet or 40 feet this won't work. Both values need to be at a "reasonable" point where they aren't too ridiculous that they make it either completely impossible or a no brainer. But if you increase/decrease the value/range slightly in either direction, I would theorize it would tend back to balanced. Faster than it did in the 90s because they simply didn't rely on the same analytics focused system teams do today

Dude I LOVE the amount of research you put into these videos. It's mind boggling how you can present so much data into easy to understand presentations. You are the Michael Jordan of sports commentary.

Jimmy you’re a master storyteller. The way you reveal the information is extremely well done. Everything else is 10/10 like video editing, your voice quality, the little moments you pause the music and just laugh for effect… but your flow of information is incredible. Love your vids. Also does anyone know what song plays around 9 minutes? Absolutely beautiful.

very good points. i wonder, with the percentages of missed shots, what are the chances of an offensive rebound and second chance points of missed 2's vs missed 3's!

I dont even watch basketball anymore. No defense and every game looks like a 3 point contest. Thats why they're losing viewers

"No idea why the league took so long to figure out", This really does show you that you have to give props to Steph Curry and to a slightly lesser degree Klay Thompson. Steph basically showed as a single individual that it can work if your good enough, Klay with Steph showed it was good enough for a team to be doing it.

Well it definitely ruined street ball. You can be up by one, open for a layup under the goal but someone decides to shoot a three instead of passing when your team need only one point, miss the shot and lose the game. This happened to me while hitting a majority of the points in the post. Damn youngins!

It's tripping me out how similar your artist playlist is to mine lol. love it

6:40 Michael Phelps did the same with the butterfly kick and Olympic swimming.

Warriors win off threes- “the three pointer is the greatest shot in the game” Warriors lose bc of threes- “are three pointers really worth too much?”

While I agree that the shot is pretty balanced, the fact remains that there were way too many BORING games this postseason. Teams shooting 10-50 from three and losing within the first half seemed like a regular occurrence.

One thing though is games are often decided by who is hot on threes, meaning if one team is hot on 3’s in a night then it’s very hard for the other team to win against it, and if they have a terrible night on 3’s it’s very hard for that team to make up for it with 2’s. These ups and downs could cause many more games being dictated by 3’s than the collective data would suggest. The points per possession teams have on one night compared to another night probably swings a lot more with the addition of the 3 I would think. But, i haven’t researched the numbers on this, and also I don’t care. It’s entertaining anyway, and there’s definitely more to it than just this, such as how the two point shot opens up the 3 and vice versa.

That was so cool to understand ! Thanks ♥

Gotta say man, your videos are so amazing. You got me back into basketball a few years back, and I really appreciate that. Keep up the amazing work man, good to see genuinely good content creators like you thriving!

If we were ever to actually need to “nerf” the 3-pointer I think the most realistic option is making it farther away

I knew all along that you loved Steph, great vid!

It is partially self balancing relationship, but I agree the line needed to end up in a spot that allowed for defense to still be able to strategically choose how to balance against both 2 and 3 pointers based upon their opponents.

Remember when people would talk about the NBA adding a 4 point line? Imagine how boring basketball would become. Thanks Adam Silver

I think the argument “one team out classed the other team, but they just hit their threes” is kinda silly because perimeter defense is a thing. Teams can literally just train the team to shoot better and defend better. It’s literally just teams that can’t shoot threes/ can defend them. I understand the argument against them, it’s just not a good one.

NBA should make something about this as they have done before when players took advantage with a tricks, tactics or physical dominance. Because 3 points is really making basketball boring and taking out different players and styles from the equation. Maybe limitating the amount of shoots or time to make them, getting the zone bigger or something because it’s fucking BORING.

Bro is a basketball nerd I love it keep up the W uploads man

I think as more teams adapt to shoot 3 points, defenses are also adapting getting better at covering the 3 points so its balancing itself.

This proves how the golden state system is well designed. They have great 3 point shooters but they use it according to how the defense plays. if the defense pressures them outside they put the ball low inside for easy 2s, if they sag off, curry unleashes from deep. It's not about just heaving threes, it's about taking what the defense gives you.

It’s really interesting to come back to this video after watching the Nuggets win the chip. Joker dismantled teams in the playoffs and now we are seeing teams pick up more big men to defend the post. The Celtics for example got rid of Smart for Dingus Pingus. A good big man in the post is just lethal, but it had to evolve, and Joker kinda proved that and now teams are going to look to play around it.

I would be interested in seeing a video that included the value of free throws into the comparison between 3-pts and 2-pts; because if the 1.03 to 0.96 per shot is enough to break the game then the 2 shots with a league average of 78.2%, being worth 1.56 pts per attempt would cause the entire sport to become obsolete.

Jimmy churned out content for us so on point even during the finals week love to see it. GOAT of Basketball RU-vid

Really interesting and balanced argumentative video. However I disagree on the last graph: If a 3 pointer had been worth only 2.5 points, the defence would have focused less on defending them, making it easier to shoot 3 pointers. This would result in a higher points per 3 point attempt.

Noob question: What about removing the 3-second paint rule? Maybe that will increase shooting % from the inside. Or what about just getting rid of it altogether? If shooting skills from the outside have gone up, players will still shoot from there and that will reduce congestion.

It occurs to me that when people say the 3-point shot is ruining the game, despite the metrics that seem to indicate otherwise, perhaps what they are trying articulate without knowing quite how is that the game has devolved into two main types of shots: the long range, heavily-guarded moon shot and the wide open, barely defended layup. I'm not sure if that's truly the case, but I do see a lot more of that than I remember. And a lot less of the brilliant chess-level maneuvering that makes you cheer (or groan, as the case may be), when the defense gets totally burned by some amazing passes and cuts.

My dude Jimmy, i have to bow to you. I watch a few other NBA RU-vidrs, but your videos.... are a whole another level. The work you put into them is just mind blowing, from the research, to the editing, to the graphs and selected videos. The excitement i get when i see you post another video is undescribed. In the name of all NBA fans, thank you Jimmy, you the real MVP

Around the 10:00 mark when you're talking about the 'only slight increase in 3P% over time' you need to take into account that the 3PT shot has been defended much more closely in the last 2 decades than it ever was when it was first introduced, which will of course alter the % of makes. The fact that it has risen so dramatically, despite being defended harder is a huge achievement and indicative of how good shooters are these days and in recent years.

Of course the option to defend the three point line exists, which would eliminate "the open three pointer", but that would require teams to play defense, which the league has outlawed since the Malice in the Palace in late 2004..

I agree.. in the Eastern Conference Finals game 4 tonight, there were 77 3-pointers attempted and 26 were made. That’s 51 empty possessions that could have been a lot more exciting otherwise.

My emotions are all over the place with this video. I went in thinking *"The 3pt is perfect, you're insane."* Moments later like *"Omfg the 3pt is so broken it needs to be removed from the game!"* Ultimately finishing with *"The 3pt is a perfectly balanced, self governing mechanic."* I had no idea I was this impressionable, and my mind could be so easily changed over the course of 16 minutes. Ultimately this is why we should relegate our opinions on such topics to those that are educated. He claims that a 36% fg would break the game; like it did in the 90's, but when acknowledging that the fg percentage has gone from 33% to 36% now, it's somehow not broken? What's his formula to determine the metric, and what dictates fg attempts vs percentage? Either 36% is broken or it's not; more attempts shouldn't alter his opinion on tht topic. I think his perception of the data is skewed.

A problem with the three-pointer is that it makes that space in front of the line (mid-range shots) basically worthless ("if you're going to shoot a long shot, might as well step behind the line and do it so it's worth more"). This means there is a dead space on the court that isn't really being used, players will only shoot from there if time is running down. If you had several lines (2.1 point line, 2.2 point line, etc.) that would fix that problem, but having a binary 3-point line makes the space in front of that line wasted space. I don't know how to fix that. Also seriously just expand the court width-wise so that corner 3's aren't shorter than regular 3's. If they are going to be shorter, then they should be worth less.

As a kid in the 90's all I ever did was focus on 3 pointers when playing NBA jam, no jumpers and a handful of dunks. When EA resurrected NBA jam on the Wii I did the same with a rookie on the warriors roster named Stephen Curry. We know what happened a few years later....

The Celtics stole Game 1 by the 3 pointer, and they barely got to the Finals by a missed 3 pointer. It's a fascinating phenomenon.

3:10 Damn bruh, the last time my Knicks won a chip the three point line didn't even exist that's how long we have been losing for 💀😭

Maybe add a no point/less point zone from where the 3 pointer only counts 2 or 1 point again. So, for example from the mid court no point (unless 24 seconds in the quarter), after mid court line until 1,5 m away from the 3 point line 2 points. In the area 1,5 m away from the 3 point line, 3 points

Same way as they track foul bonus, they could track 3pt bonus. Give each team a number of 3 pointers they can score per quarter and then all shots are worth 2 points.

In a way some teams overvalue the 3 (ex: keep shooting 3's even when they keep missing) but at the same time this is the evolution of the game. This is the same way the shot clock revolutionized the game. The same way the 3 point line did. The same way MJ revolutionized the game. The game is continuously evolving. Doesn't mean the strategy is foolproof. No strategy is perfect. I'd hesitate to say it's ruining basketball. Blame the coaches for that. Unless you're a team like the Warriors - don't rely on 3 point shooting.

When I was a kid and just starting on the game of Basketball; I used to have dreams of taking the rock to the basket through lots of contact, big men and finishing up with a layup or the very rare dunk. As a 5'11 player now in my 40s, I have developed my game for energy saving and less banging which has given me longevity. I have been playing every single day at 5:30 in the morning Monday to Sunday for the last 22 years (except for covid 😡). The evolution of the game has allowed me to continue to play and be an offensive threat via the 3 point shot. In fact my scoring average has gone up by 40% in the last coupe of years. Now in my 40's I still go to bed dreaming of basketball and in my dreams I am no longer driving through traffic as much but shooting 3's typically while using a screen. I eat, breath and live basketball and I have an almost romantic relationship with the game. I dread the day that I will have to hang up the shoes by it's laces for the last time and I know that content like this will allow me to reminiscence on those nostalgic days after I am forced to abandon that relationship. I love you basketball and I live these videos. Thanks Jimmy.

Man I don’t even watch basketball, but this video was extremely entertaining! Kudos

When my father started playing basketball they were all taught to shoot underhand ('Granny-style') free-throws as at the time it had the highest percentage of success. Crazy how things change!

It's important to remember that most players and definitely most coaches did not develop in a heavy 3pt era like this one. I think the league is still adapting to the new reality and a lot of these issues will resolve themselves in the future.

Praise be upon you JxmyHighroller.....you don't speak.....you PREACH

10:15. That’s the problem with the three pointer. The percentage doesn’t have to get better if the volume increases

I don't mind three-pointers when it's a team that makes them. What bothers me to no end is the teams who don't have the roster to emulate great shooting teams and they force them. There's nothing wrong with being a team more akin to Milwaukee or Chicago who have mid-range specialist that make the games more balanced.

I remember the NBA in the 90's and early aughts. Pat Riley had gone from the Showtime Lakers to the Thug Knicks, slowing the game down and clogging up the lane, centers and power forwards constantly battling for "easy" baskets. Teams winning games with scores like 87-80. When all that was going on, I was saying the way to solve the problem was enlarge the court, because it seemed like the court had become too small for ten players. I was wrong about the court's size, of course. The problem was the players weren't utilizing enough of it. When teams started shooting more 3 pointers, the court opened back up again. The three pointer makes "pace and space" possible, first by creating inside / outside movement, then by lateral movement. Then, as more players become efficient long range shooters, you start needing more mobile big men and sometimes no big men at all. Teams can go small and fast, outrunning opponents to prime shooting areas. I don't think the three has ruined pro basketball; it's raised the degree of difficulty for defenses, and that's not a bad thing. Points have always been easiest to come by in basketball as opposed to the other main sports and it should stay that way. But the 3 pointer is just difficult enough. It opens up the court. It makes players move instead of stand around. There are a lot of things I don't like about basketball, but the renewed focus on movement isn't one of them.

Yo Jimmy you the GOAT bro! This was super detailed. You had me in the first half ngl 😂. I thought three’s were to overpowered but then you pulled out the numbers, hahaha😂

I love the 3 pointer and now after watching this I don't feel so guilty about it - great vid !

This man's choice of topic for a video is just god tier, he knows whats on everybody's mind 👍

The way you break down historical statistics and explain them so clearly while keeping the audience engaged is a true gift. I'm sure it's backed by a tonne of hard work and effort too. Thank you so much, keep it going!