[Thursday] Ian Crosses Florida; Landfall in South Carolina with Significant Impacts Expected Friday 

Please stay safe!

My sister is near there she said the same thing

I’m in Sarasota County (Venice) I feel the same way. Stay strong and make sure you get plenty of rest, there’s so much work ahead of everyone in Florida.

Amen, Pat. Levi has certainly helped me over the years.

He's helped me since Matthew. Best forecaster/meteorologist out there

Lucky you!! it’s taken me from my first hurricane in 1979 until now to find him. I have hurricane anxiety and he explains it in a no frills way that doesn’t hype sensation causing my anxiety, so then allowing me to learn the storms behavior.

Same

Thank you for the risky but amazing work you do!

So I just watched a video on 91L by "POW Ponder on Weather", wow that guy is such a sensationalist. He goes on an on, makes 91L out to be a MAJOR CATASTROPHIC STORM. His opening tag for this one is HUGE STORM. He says HUGE BLOB of MOISTURE BLOWING UP in VENEZUELA, with PROLIFIC FLOODING. I've been watching Mr. Weatherman and his updates are much more reasoned, similar to Levi's.

Best of luck - stay safe!

👍Indeed!

It may be getting busy soon.

I mean, it's happened before. Sandy did this in 2012 after crossing over Cuba.

Look up Hurricane Ivan from 2004. True zombie system.

@@VestedUTuber Correct, it went from a Cat 3 before crossing Cuba and a Cat 1 after, then it went into the Atlantic where it became the largest Atlantic hurricane. It hit New Jersey and New York as "only" a Cat 2. Maybe I wasn't as clear with my question, but I was interested in hurricanes that traverse Florida to reform in the Atlantic. Sandy didn't follow that path. I have seen a list of hurricanes that traverse from the Caribean or Gulf of Mexico and enter the Pacific Ocean. There was a real Zombie in 2020, Hurricane Zeta hit the Yucatan, Louisiana, then traveled across the US and left from Virginia. And then it traversed the Atlantic and hit the UK, but it was an extra-tropical depression.

@@rebeccadey Ivan was a Zombie, but it didn't re-intensify into a Hurricane. I was trying to see if there is a database for this and can't find one for Gulf hurricanes crossing into the Atlantic. Michael was exceptional since it entered Georgia as a Cat 2 from the Gulf Coast. They had had one Cat 4 and four other Cat 3s, but those all hit the Atlantic coast.

@@lawrencetaylor4101 Sandy wasn't really a regular hurricane when it hit New Jersey and New York. At that point it had somehow merged with a Nor'Easter, resulting in a storm that didn't really appear intense by hurricane standards but put pretty much every other winter storm short of the 1991 Perfect Storm to shame. Anyway, how about 1994 Gordon? Didn't really reach hurricane status until after it crossed Florida, but it had a really weird path, threading the needle between Cuba and Bahamas and crossing Florida _twice_ as a Tropical Storm, first scraping the south Florida coast and cutting through the keys, and then crossing through the very same corridor as Ian.

In what way?

​@@culdeus9559 Anyone who has followed the other weather 4casting from the beginning knows the weather models have been VERY off. THIS channel has been MORE ACCURATE in my opinion .

I'm not sure about GFS but the 12z ECMWF, Sep 23 computation was pretty satisfactory on Ian's serpentine through the South East.

​​@@ViolaS471 The mainstream weather experts were wrong wrong wrong on the trajectory - WHY ? Ian has hit way south and east of original stated trajectory ... The whole state of Florida cannot be expected to evac because the weather center is guessing this much .... Floridians would need some kind of space force mother airship to lift them out because it takes a day or two to get out (depending on how far south you are). And there was no real safe place to be with this storms tragetory.

TV Station weather folks rarely share their own analysis, but stick with reporting NHC summaries. That’s why Levi’s channel is so valuable, you get to hear a lot more “tidbits” of steering/shearing influences……which proved to clearly influential on Ian’s track. As we have discussed already in the comments in past days, the U.S. models, green model lines, were consistently looking for landfalls into the Big Bend or even Panhandle locations for quite awhile. It was apparently the consistent rightward tracks of the Euros, orange and blue lines, that I guess forced the NHC to create the bulb head shaped cone that kept the Central West Coast in the cone. Only with some disclosure of what the weighting of various inputs in each model and then compared to each other can an insight be gained as to why the Euros performed more accurately on Ian. However, I don’t know how ‘proprietary’ the modelers view their product….they may not be inclined to let their work product be retrospectively analyzed. The repetitive talking point is make your plans based on the cone, however, in the case of Ian’s cone 3 days out, an expected Cat4, would have suggested potential evacuations spanning 250-300 miles of coastline….clearly an overload on planning, logistics, lodging and roadways. Therefore, the goal has to be improving on the actual track projection and modelers who deviated significantly from the Euros in this case, need to examine their model inputs. I can’t imagine the difficulty folks in Fort Myers had with basically a 24 hour notice, since at 24+, NHC was focusing on Tampa.

Don’t we all wish…NHC forecast is showing re strengthening to a hurricane before South Carolina landfall #3…

@@patpierce4854 I’m in southeast central FL and it was picking up strength as the eye moved into the Atlantic. Still feeling it.