Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the economist's confidence in the trend on wage data, expectations for the Federal Reserve, and more.
So basically we're going to keep this economy going for as long as we can until it literally hits the ground and starts combusting in to flames, this will not be a depression this will be a nightmare financially for everyone because right now when the inflation spikes up like a rocket and the dollar detaches itself from normal levels we're going to be just like Zimbabwe or Germany with wheelbarrows of money for bread. I personally feel like we have maybe 4 to 5 years of somewhat economic transactions with money and debt but after 2030 I think that's when everything will falter and hit the skids. I would buy Bitcoin and buy hard assets like gold /silver as a store of value while also actively trading...The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, we always over complicate things when we speculate. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Kelvin Hurdle, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape....
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Right, so 99% of all the incoming data says they should be hiking, but this one thing comes in a little dovish and the Fed should start cutting immediately. LOL, ok.
The markets are still in denial, but they're likely going to be caught off guard by the inflation numbers again this month, despite a slowing economy, just like they were last month. While monetary policy tightened to historically normal levels, fiscal policy is about as loose as it gets. The federal government is spending like we're in a depression.
The FED follows the 2 year yield for FED funds rate decisions. The 2 year yield never got over FED Funds, which means there was zero reason to raise rates. Yields are currently dropping, we’ll see how far they go, which means FED Funds next move will be down. Inflation is not the only metric used to determine rates. The most important factor is the economy which is showing signs of an extremely hard landing if you peel off the band-aid.
“We don’t expect a hard landing” 😂😂😂😂 So let’s completely throw out the longest yield curve inversion in the history of the world. This bust will rival 08 in terms of real estate and stock market declines. I hope that I’m not the only one that will buy houses and stocks for pennies on the dollar.
The Fed isn’t and shouldn’t cut rates, the Fed should raise rates another quarter point, and openly note that it will continue to do so unless the Federal Govt reduces the deficit from $2 T forecast, which is too much cash in this economy and adds about 1/2 point inflation.
@@The-Capitalist Then why did the FED have to assure people there will be no cuts - that was the only positive statement people can point to - no hikes. This is a house of cards ready to fall soon
@@peterdangelo5882 The FED never said there will be no cuts. I do agree with you that the system is set to explode. I hope you have been preparing to buy assets on the cheap like I have the last 18 months.
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This one data point has got every talking head hyped for earlier rate cuts. The FED is evidently desperate to cut. Given where inflation is, July seems ridiculously hopeful. What happens if CPI comes in hotter than anticipated?
This isn't encouraging unless the April inflation figures also come in lower than expected on the 15th. Normally, you would expect inflation to ease when the economy slows down but the opposite happened last month. Remember, we're only at historically normal interest rates and the federal government is still running a $1T deficit. There's a solid chance we see both slower growth and higher inflation going forward which is the worst case scenario. The fact that the fed and MSM analysts have almost universally only been wrong about inflation in one direction (bias towards underestimation) tells me all I need to know.
Economic numbers such as the unemployment rate trump inflation numbers in terms of FED funds decisions. Inflation was double digits in the 80’s when Volker slashed rates as a result of weakening jobs data and CPI was higher in 08 than it is now when the FED cut. We are in the early stages of an economic bust (real estate prices reflect that.)
@@peterdangelo5882 Inflation is obviously much higher than what they are reporting and I believe we will see a late 70’s style of inflation resurgence. But that will be after the FED lowers rates as a result of an economic bust.
