TROPICAL UPDATE - Caribbean and Atlantic Early August Tropical Hot Spots 

It's the nature of the business I suppose. Moment you begin to forecast or theorize possibilities folks disagree with, you open the target to be called out. Will continue to present the information as I see it and analyze it, thank you so much for watching

Lol

I love this haha. Genuinely appreciate your support and the stern words of advice. We work together and work very hard to put out reliable information as best as we can. It's a collaborative effort even if it may not seem like it. I'll go to bat for everyone and everything we put into this channel at all times

@@WxCenterNazario and you have a lot of loyal supporters!

@@WxCenterNazarioof course!! You inspire me every video to pursue my passion of weather, we’re all one big fam that will be on the defence with you!!

Love you, my brother, we are ONE!

Period brother. That's the way to do it.

Very welcome, thank you for watching today. Theres lots still to be done before we’re wrapped up watching realtime what’s forming out there

That's awesome news! They're veterans of the tropical season and they know precisely what to expect and prepare for. One day I aspire to have seasoned folks on the channel who can testify to their experience and the lessons learned/key takeaways before, during, and after the storm

Thank you for the update

Thank you for watching!

PS I LOVE NAZARIO!!!

Sending lots of love right back!

Very welcome! Thanks for watching Florida neighbor!

Happy to hear! Take advantage of the summer best you can

THANK YOU very much Keven. It means a lot you're still keeping up even during the hecticness in your schedule and the fairly "boring" monotony of a quiet tropical Atlantic

Not seeing too much just yet, but the signals are apparent and growing

Words to live by

Cheers! And I absolutely agree. Folks also need to understand ENSO neutral versus La Nina don't really do very much in terms of overall favorability. El Nino is the primary contributor to unfavorable conditions, sinking motions, and lots of shear. You eliminate that, and its fair play. My biggest concern are the individuals who aren't quickly examining what this does to "hot spot" or "favorable source region" activity alongside steering.

@@WxCenterNazario 100% agree. Hopeful for the best, but always prepping for the worst. Only time will tell. Thanks again for your continued effort to teach & provide insights

Happy to see you back Amanda. Sending lots of love and positive energy to you and your family.

@@WxCenterNazario ty

Sandy was certainly an anomaly. A rarity would be an even better way to describe it. As the old title says "superstorm Sandy" it highlights that dramatic transition between a bonified tropical cyclone to a strong jet supported low. Hoping that isn't the case this season as we wander into October and November

Easy forecast, heats already bearing down on us

90-93° day after day here in saint pete. At least the sea breeze storms have been firing up more frequently this year compared to 2022 and 2023.

@@StayTrippyYT From St Pete, recently moved to Hernando. Afternoon showers much like the 80s. Feels great for July 👍

Saying hello right back from Central Florida

Definitely higher than they were last year, especially given the “excited” NAO pattern we’ve been tracking. Statistically we see a slightly elevated chance of close calls during that type of phase

An excellent question and apologies for getting back so late, was a busy second half of the day yesterday. There is always that chance we see impacts from future tropical cyclones especially since we're sitting in a pattern that will likely push a large majority of weaker systems westward. However, to get them THAT far south will be entirely dependent on the storms structure, strength, and where it actually organizes. At this point in the hurricane season the ability for closed low tropical storms or hurricanes to wander that far south begins to lessen as our pressure systems guiding them westward want to migrate further north. Can't quite nail down whether we'll see a storm of the intensity you describe wandering through especially making direct impacts on Trinidad or Tobago, but I'd highly advise we take the chance a bit more serious than for example last year

Big time tip here and I will genuinely make a note of this to alert folks next time we're on stream. Especially as we get closer to the return of tropical activity, this is great safety advice

The pressure created by the winds themselves alongside the changing pressure gradient inside the hurricane is what causes windows and glass to blow out. Especially with the varying gusts, they create the tiniest of cracks or weaknesses in glass window panes until eventually either flying debris or a potent gust on its own blows them out. Why we tend to encourage folks during a hurricane try to understand where the wind is coming from, so you can shelter in the right spot of your house

I see thanks for that explanation. Now I know. Great advice! I'd add to that get hurricane proof glass and or shutters

Love it when you drop these types of questions in. Keeps my brainwaves firing at 100 percent lol. I do tend to agree with TWC's depiction of our semi "lackluster waves". Over the African continent they're fairly robust and packed with thunderstorms, but that heat low coupled with the dust being shoved off the coast and our "out of phase" MJO/upper air pattern they're not likely to do much more than give folks a bit of increased rain. The dust in itself actually helps to create a bit of additional sinking, combine that with being on the backside of the MJO and we've got subsidence all over which is why we're so quiet. We'll be shaking things up pretty soon though. And truthfully, to your second question, you can technically get a "hurricane outbreak" but not in the same fashion or as extensive as a tornado outbreak. Just take a look at last year even, at certain points we had 4-5 named storms on the chart at once time with other yellow or orange blips following in succession. I don't believe it's ever been classified as an outbreak though, just more or less lots of activity at once

Thank you for your well thought answer. Means a lot. You are like my weather professor and that is what I will call you, the weather professor, Nazario. Has a hood ring to it!

That was suppose to read good, not hood. Stupid spell check.

This is a tough question! I've watched so many different stations over the years. I personally can't really say I have a favorite. From WFTV, to WKMG, to WESH, to the old channel news 13 way back in the day, FOX. I like to watch a variety, especially having met a lot of wonderful meteorologists in recent days

@@WxCenterNazario oh ok you’re in the orlando market. I’m in the tampa bay market. thanks for deciphering my typos i fixed it. Brian Shields is an excellent tv weather man. He is in TB market but has a YT channel Mr. Weatherman, mainly focused on carribean affects on weather. So you may see him show a wave and say we r watching this but not for mainland but carribean especially since they flood a lot. He doesn’t hype either.

An excellent question, and I'd truthfully say continue to monitor as we wander through August. September and October appears to be the mixed bag of tropical activity, but I can see August being an east coast Florida type of scenario based on the ebbing-flowing our Bermuda high has been consistently doing over the west Atlantic. We'll discuss a bit more of the reasons why in today's update

Trinidad should still keep an eye open. The area where these tropical waves move west is still close to that 10 degree latitude line, the "convergence zone". The more lower latitude routes these tropical features take, the greater the chances of feeling some sort of influence from them

Good morning! Not concerned but vigilant. Once this period of quiet is over, current data and future data suggests our waves will continue further west than we saw last year. Your area could see increased tropical action especially in August

Excellent question. This far out I want to avoid naming specific towns or microscale geographic regions. We can start to nail that down once a new TC is on the board. But regardless, the general set up suggests we’ll see much further west movement of our tropical systems during peak months. So I’d keep a watchful eye open in NOLA. If it were last year, I wouldn’t be watching much at all

I saw that, NWS and NOAA would go away. Very bizarre

@@WxCenterNazariothey took away his sharpie

I don’t think many people would be. Still time to get ahead of these long term trends and get a feel for what’s to occur during our peak months. Why we’re so heavily concentrated on day to day trends now while activity is very quiet