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I think you're overthinking this. Tesla doesn't need X nor advertising. Rollout FSD and as soon as driverless is allowed it's game over. People will see smart summons as they are having to run to their cars in the rain. They will see driverless cars going down the street, people accept it. Offer some free rides and Uber is finished. Uber pays their drivers 75% of the fare, remove that expense and Tesla has plenty of room to destroy them on price.
@@jamespaul2587 The discussion is once it is approved. Which of course it will be otherwise Google, GM and even Uber wouldn’t be spending billions developing driverless cars. Uber driver get 75% of the base fare. Tesla can easily make the fare 1/3, they won’t be paying a driver.
If robo-taxi is ultimately priced very low per mile, it's going to disrupt mass-transit in cities too. Why ride the bus or train when you can get a private custom tailored ride (interior temp, seat position and media set to your preference on arrival) for a little bit more. Robo-taxi also has the advantage that it will pick you up and drop you off at your precise destination.
Totally agree with focus on certain markets. Putting a garbage service everywhere will just make the public hate the service. If they focus on key markets that works very well, cities and other governments will invite Tesla to bring the service there.
@@HopeIsFleeting Can you explain why? An new button for ride hailing makes the X app less user friendly? A new button makes ride hailing more complicated?
@@timtessman3107 Uber customers already know how to download apps. They'll leave Uber like fleas off a dead dog when there's a cheaper, better alternative. Driver not needed at some point, nor a customer data base.
This is a really good analysis. And these few sentences are the most profound change we will see this century: “we're not just witnessing the potential fall of a ride hailing giant we're seeing the birth of a new paradigm in urban transportation one where AID driven electric vehicles don't just replace taxis but fundamentally alter how we think about car ownership City Planning and Mobility itself in a paradigm where cars are far more than just cars they are shape-shifting autonomous robots”
You left out the experience with autobidder and real-time arbitrage. Using similar techniques and algorithms, Tesla's margins can be optimized dynamically while undercutting competitor's margins.
would like to see Tesla rollout robotaxi service in Austin Tx first since they have the factory nearby. Once the service has been debugged then go after Uber's big 6 revenue generators
Me too. Texas first. More like Musk would be to launch Tesla test vehicles in Waymo's midst. Consider how he picked the only place in the world with competition to build the Shanghai plant.
I'm planning on starting my own shuttles, tours, grocery pick up and shopping, dentist, doctor, airport business in a tiny village of population 50. It is about an hour drive to the next valley South. With a little solar power system charging and grid charging both available, I could drive to the valley with or without customers twice per week. Customers could prepay for groceries which I could pick up and deliver to them (no driving for them) or they could ride along and pick out their own groceries, visit the doctor, dentist while I do grocery shopping both for myself and others. Special longer trips could be arranged ahead of time such as going to the nearest large airport to pick up or deliver flyers. I could shuttle rafting/floating trips, bar hopping trips (no driving drunk),, etc. The hard part for me will be figuring out how much to charge for my service. The best part of my service is income tax write off on the EV and charging costs. I can buy more solar batteries, solar panels(and replace the old, used panels with new, better panels). The more I buy and write off as business expenses; the more energy I can put into the EV.
I’m a Uber/Lyft driver and I have absolutely no respect for either company. I am also a Tesla shareholder and hope that Tesla puts me out of the rideshare business soon. Uber, Lyft, Waymo and Cruise will not be able to compete with Tesla because they are fully integrated. All of the others cost per mile of operation will be considerably higher and will probably have to pay Tesla to license FSD and to use their charging system.
As a Tesla investor, I think buying Uber or Lyft is a horrible idea. Tesla can develop its own software and integrate it from the ground up. People will rapidly jump ship on current ride hailing companies and use Tesla’s. I think many people will see that robotaxis are cheaper and more convenient than owning a vehicle. I predict that eventually Tesla will have a variety of options for people to rent boats, trucks, trailers, campers, quads….. This could disrupt all types of industries. 99% of people who own a camper do not use it enough to justify owning it. Also, trucks are extremely useful for hauling things or taking your dog places, but they are not always necessary. You could ride in a car to the store but ride in a truck home to fit everything you bought
While I see them advertising the Tesla app on X, I'm not sure they will integrate the cab experience with X (but they will integrate with Grok. As Grok becomes a personal assistant, I could see "get me a cab" integration then.) I think it's more likely to start out as a Tesla app with Grok integration. Users already have the Tesla app on their phones, so a new tab to "add to the network" is a simple update. Using X doesn't make as much sense to me, because Tesla doesn't own X. What if X was sold, or went bankrupt? Tesla would be out of luck. Tesla should be master of its own destiny, and (external) software agnostic. If Grok goes away, they could integrate with GPT or whatever without skipping a beat, and instead of advertising on X they could switch to any other platform.
Also, outside the USA, Uber doesn’t exist as a ride hailing service in its original form, where anybody with a car going in the same direction can give someone from the app a ride and earn a bit of money. Taxi companies got governments to require Uber to operate as registered taxi companies and they are basically a taxi ordering app. I’m not sure if Tesla will crack that legislation challenge because they will crush the existing taxi businesses as well and those taxi operators will fight hard.
All I know is if the driver is nice I tip 20% or even more if it a short trip, not having to tip a driver saves me $ (I know I do not have to tip, but I am inclined to)
You could start it up in any city with former leased vehicles. Any city worldwide can start with an airport-based service to the CBD and in the connecting corridor. Add a extra button if help with luggage is required. Then send a vehicle with a human to handle the luggage. I gave up driving Uber as I was fed up with peak-hour traffic. If sitting in an autonomous vehicle driver stress is less and can work longer hours. One complication is finding legal spots to pull over to get passengers in or out. Any city worldwide can start with an airport-based service to the CBD and the connecting corridor. In practice that would also mean some out of zones trips. The initial operation could send out offers to subscribers based on the vehicle path while it is traveling back to the operational zone. Consider senior citizens as occupiers of the driver's seats. This would cover any delays while regulatory approval is ironed out.
But for deliveries, don’t require airbags, nor small overlap front collision testing, no crash safety at all. No sound deadening windows, no double latch doors. No 4 second 0-60 mph. And likely not 2 ton weight.
5:20 - I don’t know which version I have but I love Raycons. They are the lightest, in the smallest case (unlike my Beats brick), of a half dozen different brands I have; they hardly ever fall out (using right ear now), they spell correctly from dictation as well as any, & MUCH better than some. I wish I had a cover for the case, as the paint is wearing off with use in pocket. I love rose gold, it doesn’t scream “Look at me“ like white or black even; and I got a major kick out of who Ray is, when I found out 🔥 Huge thanks for the recommendation CTD!
Sorry, I lied - inadvertently. I saw the lady in the ad touching hers in the ear, reached to touch mine and realized I’m wearing beats right now at home. at work I only use Raycon. Everything else is too big, too visible, not loud enough, or more serious issues. But everything else I wrote is true
Yeah basically every delivery job will be taken over by Tesla. Food delivered by Tesla, groceries delivered by Tesla, packages delivered by Tesla. Just wait until the cyber van pulls up and Optimus hops out with your Amazon order.
@@loweryjk i don’t think Amazon would ever adopt Tesla products. Too much bad blood between bezos and Elon. I could be wrong. They are in the business of making money. And Tesla products would make business sense to almost every company….. another thought just hit me it’s seeming like as soon as robotaxi is introduced, and implemented insidiously, the world as we know it is going to change drastically. Scary how seemingly overnight, the world will be transformed first by robotaxi, then Optimus. People have no idea what’s about to happen. It’s going to get bad real quick especially on the job market.
I tend to agree, I loved the point about Blockbuster and Nokia. Once disrupted by a rapidly producing competitor, their value falls surprisingly rapidly to near zero.
I dont think you nees to spend money to aquire customers. The product (if it works) will be so mind blowing and magical. People will run to their appstore and use it immediately. No need to persuade them at all
If Tesla Ridesharing has the price advantage we think, requiring a button on the X app isn't that important because downloading a new Tesla app is not a barrier. I often have my Uber app and Lyft app fight it out and I'll select the one that's cheaper on every single ride - I do this for a $3 dollar advantage. I'd be happy to let the Tesla app join the fight. For Tesla, in the beginning, it will be about price and time until pickup. Once they get their numbers up to Uber/Lyft, it will just be about price.
Suggested feature: Alert rider if any personal item was forgotten in the car! Based on 2 pics of the cab (before rider enters and after exit) and a bit of AI. Not an invasion of privacy at those times.
Uber bosses will be ordering Robo taxis in the millions. Instantly they remove the drain on their profit margins. The drivers. In the long term its not looking good for delivery and taxi drivers in the West.
Sun soo approximately sandy. Fight the enemy where they aren't. Vegas loop and shortcut toll tunnels, countries where uber can't work, long haul routes.....once tesla becomes ubiquitous elsewhere then they out compete uber as everyone expects tesla-everywhere.
TESLA doesn’t need UBER/LYFT, nor any ride share data from any other companies, they have unassailable lead with all the data they get from their existing fleeting. TESLA knows which of their cars are doing ride share . 😁😁😁😁
Quick question. How will they charge a fleet of cars ? Is it up to the passenger to do so ? Will they have a team of people doing it ? what do you think will be the solution ? thanks
Tesla doesn't have to fully compete in the 6 profitable cities. They can choose the most profitable areas, routes and times with a lower number of Cars. Tesla can charge a portion ( Ex: 75% of Uber rate) to dominate those rides and let Uber cover the less profitable times and routes until TESLA has sufficient cars on the road. Faster penetration and higher margins in less time.
😄Good day from GOONELLABAH, NSW! 🌏 I'll embark on a six-month journey to circumnavigate Australia in two CYBERTRUCKs and a Tesla Semi, covering 22,000 kilometres at the end of February 2025. - Cheers, Ian Cleland
in the far future the FSD software comes with the car. This will be when owning a car is no longer necessary because robotaxi fulfill all transportation needs at lower costs. Those who still buy a car can add their car to the robotaxi pool and profit is shared so it's a win/win, no one loses.
The only threat for Tesla’s RoboTaxi I can see is vandalism. Either plain vandalism or specific vandalism by competitors/taxi drivers. In a manned taxi people behave more or less. People tend to behave differently when no one is watching.
Tesla could license out hail service to Meta, and others that have users all over the world not only X for Americans. So - FSD is important for Tesla, which everything app that has it is of little difference for Tesla, who can be on all inc Chinas social apps.
This was a thoughtful video ... and got me thinking a bit differently was well. Uber, Lyft, Robotaxis, etc. - all extra and for-profit. ... What about city buses and school buses and other urban (or rural) transportation, much of which is considered a city public service paid for by tax dollars. And of course, parking spaces, lots, above & below ground garages, etc., and all the traffic congestion. The day may come (as it already has in a few places in the world), when ICE vehicles maybe be prohibited in (some parts of) cities and the "Robotaxis fleet operators" may be city personnel and their contractors who would bear all the overhead costs using municipal funds. Ride costs, tickets, passes, etc., would be very cheap; perhaps free for seniors, veterans, school children, people with disabilities, etc. Customers who needed a vehicle (a truck, etc.) for an extended period of time or needed one for a road-trip for business or family or pleasure still might want a personal car or could just be temporarily assigned (or rented) one by the city fleet services. In other words, why not envision Robotaxis simply as a public service, paid for like other (yesterday's) urban transit services.
Brad Templeton laid out many of the changes that would come with autonomous vehicles a long time ago on his Robocars blog. It's a bit dated now but well worth a read.
oh nice. Where tax dollars are used to offer transportation services, they can just pay robotaxi to do it for them at lower cost and better service. Make those tax dollars go farther. Maybe eliminating all their current parking space needs will save more tax dollars as well.
@@alanlight7740Thanks. I will look for that post. I just haven't seen or read much discussion about autonomous taxi service being discussed as a public service just like city buses, transportation infrastures, subways, and sidewalks. They are usually compared to private cars or "cab services."
@@WarrenLacefield - do a search for Brad Templeton robocars and you should find it easily. It's much more detailed than a single post. I'm thinking he started putting it all together about 15 to 20 years ago. He did discuss comparisons to public transportation, especially in the section titled "The Green Transit Myth". Public transportation did not come out well in the comparison. Also much about how a decreasing need for parking spaces would affect built environments in positive ways. Not linking because RU-vid handles that badly sometimes.
Would work excellent where i am cause every intersection i sit at has at least 2 and typically 5 teslas waiting there which means you would have super easy access to rides
Wow, x app will have ride hailing. Could they replace payment app as well? I bet you're about to say so. When buying a Tesla there's a 3rd party app that handle the payment - X everything app could replace it. And could it process robotaxi payments as well? Need this stuff.
I…. Am a Uber/Lyft Rideshare driver and a Tesla shareholder. I am hopeful that Tesla’s RoboTaxi service will put me out of the Rideshare business soon. The increase in my stock price will make my loss of income from Uber/Lyft inconsequential.😂
You forgot to mention that Tesla cars off peak in their robo taxi role can be used for grid stabilization with its vehicle to grid tech plus its HW 3 / 4 computer can be used for AI inference also generating revenue
Yea, they're called car parks (parking lots for the Yanks). With so many cars taken off the road, massive areas of parking will open up that Tesla can use for the things you've listed.
@@furryrug5998 Of course people realise this. It's just not an issue because of the amount of parking that will be opened up because of the number of cars that will be taken off the road.
@@HopeIsFleeting If they knew they would require a massive supercharger network upgrade why did Elon fire the bulk of team who deal with the infrastructure rollout? Good public transport gets cars off the road. Robotaxi may actually increase the number of vehicles on the road.
@@furryrug5998 Good question with several answers. 1) You need to keep a good balance sheet in the present to assure future growth. Tesla had to trim the fact to maintain positive cash flow and keep investing in more immediate concerns like acquiring enough compute to create the models needed for FSD. 2) Cars have not yet been taken off the roads so these parking lots are not yet acquirable. 3) Tesla already has the best charging network in the world. Now they have control of the charging standard, they are in a position where they can let other people build charging infrastructure for them which they have access to. As for public transport, you're right. Taxis are a service open to the public so I would class them as public transport in a way. The difference is, they are not tied to one route, making them more convenient than buses. However I foresee Tesla building autonomous buses for major transport routes too. I see no outcome where robotaxi increases the amount of cars being produced. Your average car is used around 2% of the time. If that number goes up to 4%, that means you need half the amount of cars for the same amount of travel and so on. There is absolutely no reason why personal transport and public transport cannot coincide though. In fact, that would be the best way to travel, let's say, from a house in the middle of nowhere where public transport does not go and, well, anywhere else. Unless you think that people who live in the middle of nowhere shouldn't travel??
I agree with your overall sentiment and general business moves. But these are all extreme best case scenarios and somewhat reaching in nature. Deployment is a totally different matter.
The edge cases now are basically down to people getting stuck. Which can be solved by remote driver assistants. The technology is ready to go but we're in an interesting spot where the software is improving at such a rate, Tesla might as well wait 12 months for FSD to see a 100x improvement. (If they're right and it really is improving at a rate of 10x every 6 months).
@@HopeIsFleeting Yes, I know we humans have trouble comprehending exponential rates of improvement. But I still don’t think society is ready to approve Tesla Cybercab for at least two more years. Just my personal opinion based on instinct. However, I hope it’s approved sooner, as I’m fully invested in Tesla stock.
The voices calling for Tesla to buy Uber/Lyft are idiotic. Tesla only makes small acquisitions for specific tech or patents. I don't see either Uber or Lyft having any "secret sauce" and Tesla will easily launch a ride hailing feature within the Tesla app. I doubt they will embed it within X.
Don’t fool yourself, Tesla Robotaxis will be 10x Uber’s 1.5 mill drivers. US fleet is 300 million cars. Expect to replace 100 million with 20 mill taxis, 2 mill pA. Tesla will need to quadruple present production of 1 million vehicles pA for 5 years - then make replacements. This is why generation 3 is required - high production numbers, high automation, ease of assembly.
If you owned a tesla with and didnt buy FSD subscription, can you add your car to the robot taxi fleet and then get it to drive yourself to a location and then turn off robo taxi so that you get a ride without having to pay for FSD lol?
Most of these executives are panicking for no reason. *RoboTaxis* are first going to be bought by deep-pocketed _Fleet Companies_ (like *Yellow Cab* in *New York.* ) *Uber* and *Lyft* will be the next big purchasers. Then the rare individuals. *RoboTaxi* is a way to clear some of the *Liability* side of a corporate balance sheet.
Tesla has purchased very few companies in its history. They have the software capability to write an app that is superior to Uber in a month. Additionally, it's doubtful that Uber software could be easily integrated into the software running autopilot. Tesla's brand awareness is superior to Uber so I just don't see where there's a fit.
Uber is about 10x overvalued vs. net income. It should be around $15 billion. There is no significant growth path with Robotaxi for Tesla. The whole global taxi/ride-hailing business is around $250 billion a year.
A 25 minute video about a product that may not be available for many years or possibly never. I would think that China having several low cost car producers would be able to compete. Tesla won't have a monopoly for long if ever. Every assumption and claim you mage is dependent on FSD achieving Level 5. Could be more than a few years away.
Uber has nothing other than app, a well developed app for using other people time and assets/cars from personal gain. They are dead as we speak. Tesla has been building this FSD since the beginning. I own a Tesla with FSD and when the time comes I'll include it in the Robotaxi fleet, and I'll also be happy and excited to use a robotaxi when my car is out, making me money. One last thing, I don't think Tesla will need to offer free rides, being that the demand for a Robotaxi will be super super! Crazy! Tesla can easily outbid anyone on price. Thank you for video. 😎🙏
The most omportan example is Lyft. It could be as good as Uber and possibly cost slightly less, but people say "why do i need two ride-hailing apps" and keep using uber. With X, many - including Uber users - already have it
@@ConnectingODots Your Lyft example is common with whoever wins a category. However, Tesla will essentially be a new category of self-driving ride hailing and the easy category winner. This new category will be superior to the driver version with cheaper costs, no drivers, and an electric fleet. You don’t need to spend $40 Billion on Twitter to make that successful - especially when a huge portion of the world already follows your every move. So, my point is simply that when you own and control a vastly superior category, a button on Twitter will make no difference.
Excellent breakdown. Things would be coming along nicely if Elon wasn’t endorsing project 2025. I find it hard to believe he has read that thing and agrees with it. And it is an all or nothing situation, don’t get to just choose which parts you like and which you wont
Kind of the opposite. There won't be taxi _drivers,_ but taxi _services_ will be bigger than ever, and there will be other sorts of jobs in the industry to service the increased number of taxis on the road.
No. It has never been done. But it is constantly improving, each version drives longer without mistakes, fatal mistakes are less and less over time. So if the progress continues it will reach full self driving. At the moment Tesla fsd runs on 4-5 year old hardware (hw3). Maybe it‘s not good enough to excel on this hardware. Maybe the next gen or gen after that is needed to run everythibg smoothly. Maybe training gets you only to 99.9% perfection but you need 99.999. in my opinion it looks like they will solve it over time - but I an not 100% sure, there is still uncertrainty in my opinion. But it will get crazy good to become the best assisting system by far for sure. If it gets us to full autonomy is uncertain. But it looks like it at the moment…
While I agree X gives access to a base of potential customers, just the media focus on Tesla gives them a massive reach to the masses. Musk and the company culture he seems to develop gets them to accomplish what others have not or will not. Giga presses, self landing rockets, and so on, shows they can do so much. Sure, there are failures or delays, but look at what has been and what they are doing, it is impressive. Maybe BYD would be the closest to Tesla in abilities, but I still believe there is a good size gap between those companies. I think it will be good if Yesla Cybercabs start with mostly word of mouth marketing as they ramp up. There is so much to work out, that there is zero chance things starting out great once the service is public. It is not a slam against Tesla or Musk, just the reality of launching this. Problems will happen and they will solve them.
X marks the spot. Makes sense. And X's payment system can tie into its blue checkmark validation system. Blue Checks could be the subscription/customer validation system. And of course, the front door to games/movies/features you want while traveling to your destination.
X will be so bogged down with features, it'll be unusable. I want my social media app to be separate from my ride hailing app. There is no reason for them to be the same app. It'll just worsen the user experience. The only reason Tesla might do this is because it's gimmicky and it'll let people know Robotaxis are a thing.
Who is insuring this system? So far FSD is fully supervised.. until this is insured, I dont see any competition. Not sure if Tesla will insure this of they expect some insurance company to do it..
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck It could be insurance companies, it could be tesla, it could be you. If you claim FSD is better than a human and you are willing to insure it what does that say? Full Self Driving means full responsibility. By the way, put the Koolaid down. This is not a church..
![Tesla's plan to CRUSH Uber [Robotaxis will Dominate. 10/10 HERE WE COME!]](/img/logo.svg){kind=logo}
