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Ukraine is entering its third winter of a full-scale war unleashed by Russia. In the east, the Defense Forces are losing ground under the onslaught of the Russian occupation forces, although it is costing the invaders huge losses.
In Kiev, as well as in Washington and some Western capitals, the mood is changing, the Financial Times reports. The determination that the war will end only when Russia's army leaves Ukraine is being replaced by a grudging recognition that the best option is "a negotiated settlement that leaves most of the country intact." But Kiev lacks support even for that goal.
Ukraine’s prospects are clouded above all by the possible victory of Republican Donald Trump in the US elections. He has repeatedly said that he wants to end the war quickly. Some US and European officials hope that Trump can at least be deterred from forcing Kyiv into an unfavorable deal with Moscow that would create serious risks to European and American security in the future.
But as the war in the Middle East escalates, even some Western capitals that previously insisted on the need for a military victory over Russia are rethinking their goals. Some Kyiv officials also privately complain that they lack the manpower, firepower, and Western support to retake all the territory Russia has seized. So behind closed doors, there is talk of a deal in which Russia would retain control of the captured territories.
"Moscow retains de facto control over about a fifth of Ukraine, which it has occupied - although Russia's sovereignty over it is not recognised - while the rest of the country is allowed to join NATO or given equivalent security guarantees," the newspaper writes.
Under this umbrella, Ukraine could also recover and integrate with the EU, like West Germany during the Cold War.
But such a scenario rests on ambitious assumptions. One is that the United States and its allies should be prepared to offer Ukraine NATO membership or the necessary guarantees. But they have so far been reluctant to offer Kyiv guarantees of joining the alliance.
"This would require a huge and costly deployment of forces by the US and its partners - and would leave them on a Cold War-style stretch," the article says.
The second assumption is that Russian president Vladimir Putin could be persuaded to negotiate and accept such a scenario. But preventing Ukraine from joining NATO has been one of the Kremlin's stated war aims. It is also doubtful that Putin has any incentive to agree to land-for-peace talks if he believes his army can still conquer more territory.
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10 окт 2024
