A big effect of Ukraine finally calling the Russian bluff is that now Russia will also have to mann their entire border and actually invest in proper defence at home, that removes the large Ukrainian disadvantage of having had far more soldiers along the border than Russia has had.
yup - and with russia already having issues getting enough manpower for their attacks over the last several months, this will be a major headache for Putin
Russia can't freeze the conflict now because that would leave Russian territory in Ukrainian hands. Or they could, but then they would have to trade occupied territory. It's embarrassing for the Russians either way.
They'll also need to redeploy which means moving equipment and amunitions, which increases the chances of ukraine to know where the stocks are to kaboom. It's a dilema presented which is a good strategy.
@@OlivierFablu-c9m I'm not sure where you got your information from as The Peoples Republic of Kursk just voted to join Ukraine, while other oblasts are in the same process.
This move gains 🇺🇦 so much: 1. Beyond capturing the station that controls gas flow into Europe, Kursk and the KNPP is critical to war efforts as it makes 95% of Russia’s steel and other critical items. It gives them leverage to get Russia out of other areas like the ZNPP if Ukraine captures the Kursk NPP. 2. US restrictions made Putin believe border defenses were unnecessary /he could commit everything in 🇺🇦. No longer. 3. It changes the entire media narrative which was this creeping advance that had lowered domestic morale and created a Russian fed narrative in international media that Ukraine has no hope, more support is a waste and they just to come to the table. 4. It shows how much Western self-deterrence via unfair restrictions on where and what Ukraine can hit has not only hurt their war efforts, but innocent civilians too. 5. It also puts the US and Germany into an awkward position. It makes their policies look silly and ineffective. And it should give Ukraine some leverage that if they want Ukraine to withdraw from Russia, they need to be given something in return that will improve their chances when just fighting from within their own borders. 6. As the video showing one Russian in Kursk saying “I don’t care who flag I live under as long as they actually protect me,” it makes Putin look weak, makes some realize Putin doesn’t care about them and this entire situation is his fault.
The US thing is interesting: with Biden retiring we KNOW USA won't have the same administration after elections. I think Zelenskyy is still putting bets on tRump, like he mistakenly did in 2020 (and how Poroshenko was mistaken in supporting Clinton), so if having Ukrainian presence in Kursk and some damage there will sabotage "peace" talks I'm all for that. After all, any "peaceful" agreements with russia likely end with most of us dead, so we need to do anything in our power to avoid West attacking Ukraine and forcing it to disarm and just die.
Well yes ; it IS Vladolf Putler's fault totally and Russians are right to question and blame him. But losers never assume responsability and always blame others.
I have heard a lot, and I mean a lot of criticism of this action by Western analysts. How Ukraine is wasting resources for no sustainable objective. This is the first analysis I've heard that makes sense. It draws Russia in and forces them to engage, while relieving pressure in the Donbas. And it's attrition. The Ukraine victory comes through attrition. When Russia would like to take a break, they are instead forced to engage. It's brilliant. This helped me visualize the objective, one that makes perfect sense within the context of this war. Thank you.
Also redirects public focus in Russia to the dramatic loss of security which coupled with the recent experience of Prigozhin's advance on Moscow could lead to panic in the motherland.
William Spaniel - an American international relations and game theory professor - made a good video on it as well (about the same length as this one. Suffice to say, I'm glad I don't follow the analysts you critcized.
There are now four contact fronts,in the Russia Ukraine conflict.All that this has achieved is that now there will be a fifth in the Sumi region,whereby the Ukranian Armed Forces,will be further pushed back.westwards,and stretching the Ukranian Armed Forces
@@user-wf2rp4yc6y I don't think it's coping . ruzzia doesn't care about Kursk so they wouldn't be forced to a negotiation for a tradeoff . I don't think thebguy is a russian bot . I'm a Ukraine supporter but I also find the OG comment out of touch with reality . Ruski want Ukraine they will not trade . you misunderstand just how much the russian regime is willing to sacrifice for their bullshit idea of larger ruzzia
@@valeriesolanas4077 if peace negotiations start, Russia would need to give up some land in order to get other land back. It's pretty straightforward.
I guess there's many benefits: Making the russian population nervous. Forcing putin into making more maneuvers then expected before winter. Forcing putin into securing/manning russian borders.
Anders, your commentary on the war stands head and shoulders above the vast preponderance of weekend-warriors clamouring for clicks on this issue. Keep up the good work.
@@Princip666 lmao putin looks super weak when when he can't control his own borders. The russia doesn't have borders it's up for taking. Finland should take scat putinsburg.
Definitely "gold" as propaganda, all those Russian refugees, traveling about Russia spreading information about Putin's invasion and crimes on Ukraine's citizens! Slava-UA 💙🇺🇦⚖️
Official Russian media is talking about how the Ukrainian attack was thwarted. Totally out of touch with the reality.. Good, very good move from Ukraine and I also love how they are not talking about it. Great!
When you publish one of your videos I always feel like I'm listening to an adult in the room rather than a cheerleader. Thank you for taking the time to share your insight.
Definitely "gold" as propaganda, all those Russian refugees, traveling about Russia spreading information about Putin's invasion and crimes on Ukraine's citizens! Slava-UA 💙🇺🇦⚖️
@@untje An echo chamber of independently verifiable facts like visually confirmed equipment loss data. The worst kind of echo chamber for an orc trollbot.
The fighting in Northern Kharkiv Oblast has moved to attritional fighting. The same Army Group, the same commanding General at the moment, that defends Kursk is doing that attacking. If the Russians want it back immediately, they’ll need to pull back in Kharkiv or stop the Donetsk offensive. You’re right the US “escalation management” is now just keeping Russia at war until sanctions work, not stopping an escalation. This offensive I think has sent Ukrainian amor at Rosgavdia & conscript defensive troops and that was exactly the mix that provoked the collapse of the first Russia Kharkiv front in late 2022. It’s fascinating to see Putin broadcast to Russians how serious he’s taking this, playing that man of action role. It means the Kremlin already can’t hide what’s happening there, the word is out in Russia, just like the Wagner march.
This was the comment I was looking for. As the Ukrainian incursion pushes east it starts to press on the back areas of the Kharkiv operations. A encirclement of those Russian forces is a fever dream but it will force a choice, Kursk or Kharkiv
Speaking of Wagner, Russia is withdrawing Wagner from Africa, to go to the Kursk front. Putin will try to win that territory back using Wagner alone first... if that doesn't work, they'll probably withdraw from other fronts.
It also puts putin for the dilemma that he can no longer use his earlier proposed ceasefire along the current frontlines. Thanks for sharing your expert view on this, Anders!
The incursion will deny the Russian army an opportunity to take a break! And your other reasons, too, sound very plausible. That is the kind of reasoning I watch your channel for. Thanks 👍👍
@johnlaudenslager706 >>> Get real here Russia is only using @20% of it man power & little more equipment.... while Ukraine is short of everything manpower equipment etc so think about the REAL facts before spouting NATO/UN/WEF propaganda. So this attack is small gains as Russia has many to increase ready trained bodies into the meat grinder, Ukraine cannot afford much losses in any front line, recruiting middle aged teens females many times raped males brutalised into the front & failing. Nato did this for big headlines short term to silence the wavering supporting voices from loss after loss .... or are they falling into Russia's trap? By pulling resources from the rest of the Ukraine? Then get wiped out from rear on all sides? The latter make sense in many ways... Russia still got plenty to give with it holding back the greater numbers....
Spot on, as always. You have become, for a long time now, the most trusted source for a balanced and well argued take on the conflict in Ukraine. Tak Anders.
@@kasperwittrup1288 Framing the russian invasion of Ukraine as a "conflict" rather than a "war" aims to downplay the severity and scale of the situation. This framing minimizes the perception of destruction and intensity. It alignings with certain narratives that reduce the urgency and emotional response from the public and international community.
@@gustogustav Global Armed Conflict of 1939-1945; Franco-British Armed Conflict of 1337-1453; United States Internal Armed Conflict of 1861-1865; Vietnam Armed Conflict of 1955-1975; Korean Peninsula Armed Conflict of 1950-1953; Spanish Internal Armed Conflict of 1936-1939; English Dynastic Armed Conflict of 1455-1487; European Armed Conflicts of 1803-1815
Ukraine shows all the separatist groups and countries how weak Russia is. It is a now-or-never situation for separation Apart of this, Kursk is emotionally loaded city
I don't think separation is likely. Kursk isn't one of these soviet union add-ons, but traditional russian territory. There are also no separatist fighters I'd be aware of.
@@user-jp4lt7xu2gI did, twice, and although your palaces are nice the rest of your cities are shit holes and your towns and villages do not have roads.
Consistently the most insightful analysis on RU-vid by far! That’s what a real professional military analyst brings to the table. This is by far the best commentary on this recent development that I’ve seen postulated. Well done!
Good analysis! The map however, does give a clue to what Ukrainians might be attempting. As a trained Brigade MI Officer, I also like maps. The Ukrainians seem to be attempting to defend a significant river barrier which better divides Sumy Oblast, Ukraine from Kursk Oblast, Russia. The terrain behind the river closes to Ukraine is higher than the valley Russians would have to cross in addition to the river. This was a Russian casualty disaster in Bahkmut, is a casualty disaster in Chasiv Yar, and could be similarly a casualty disaster in Kursk. Ukrainians would only need about a month to harden these natural defenses to inflict 5/1 casualties on Russia. IF Russia allocates more forces to defend or retake Kursk, it will take 8/1 Russians to succeed and have forces capable of a defense. Ukrainians have about 1,000 troops inside Kursk. They are ready to add 3,000 more. This means Russia would need 24,000 troops to succeed. Right now natural terrain is offering Ukraine a 2/1 multiplier effect. If hardened defenses are built at key places, the ratio could increase to 4/1. This means a Battalion could hold off up to a Brigade. Ukrainians already have 3 Battalions in the battle. Also not discussed is why no Russian Volunteer Corps Units were used. This is because Ukrainians are not liberating Kursk. They are capturing Kursk Oblast territory for a new Ukrainian border. I have posted many times Ukrainians should claim all the territory south of the Donetsk River. This would include Taganrog and Rostov. This is a defendable Ukrainian border. Defending Luhansk Oblast beyond the ridge line along the Oskil River is difficult. I am a Not One Inch supporter of Ukraine. However, if all the inches in a defendable border equal the 1991 total Ukrainian square kilometers, which inches are in Not One Inch become less important.
Just sidenote: I absolutely love Danish RU-vidr-s and videobloggers. The clarity of English (for non-native English speakers) is astounding. Better English than English and US natives. :D Regarding UA offensive to RU: keeping all my fingers crossed (and sending my $$$ to UA drones initiatives as always).
@@valeriesolanas4077LOL - The Danes are simply the coolest, richest, least corrupt, best organized subs on the planet. By the way also amongst the biggest donors (pr capita) to Ukraine. I’ll be happy to have them as cheerleaders in my corner any day. 😂😂
2 minutes after launch and you have 133 likes with almost 600 views. Keep up the good work Sir. A few months back when Zelensky was asked by a reporter if he would be willing to trade land to Russia in return for peace, he answered, "Belgorod." I don't think that he was joking.
Thanks Anders. been scouting around for reports- I see everyone's view numbers rolling fast ! We are hungry for info. Interesting developments. I think we are all tired of watching Ukrainian's suffering. Cheers from Australia.
@@ionutzstoicaReferendum to wich not a single Crimean has zero objection kinda sounds better than "" democratic"" separation of Kosovo without referendum at all. You cant call Russian referendums fake on basis of simply-hating-russians.
Moreover, cutting off the gas/oil hubs and the railway lines going south. The NPP north east would cut the power to many factories e.g. metallurgy etc.
The town is the gas metering centre for exports via Hungary and also its on the rail line to the south region. Less cash for Russia and makes resupply harder.
Been scouring the internet to find some meaning to this madness and this is so far the best analysis I've heard. Thanks Anders, this was succinct and to the point.
They did that the last time the freedom for russia legion went in . They took out a bunch of villages without even evacuating the russian citizens living there .
Excellent analysis as always Anders. This also looks to be a gamble that you briefly touched on last video. The Ukrainian advance into Kursk will very like hasten the need for Russia to do another round of conscription which is extremely unpopular in Russia (especially since the soldiers, in the last round of conscription, were never rotated out and look to be serving until the end of the war without R&R). The gamble comes because the Ukrainians are betting they will still continue to get resupplied this winter either by the Europeans or by the Americans (which assumes trump loses in November)
Even if Orange Hitler wins, winter will be over by the time his policies can have effect. He also has to defy an increasingly Democrat led Congress to get anything done.
Puts pressure on the Putin allies that have been compromised in the US and EU, particularly the US house & senate. That might tip their hand and further unravel things. Stress and pressure might create unforced errors.
?? NATO just changed the weapons restriction rules in place for 2+ years (their rules). They took off the restrictions; how is that *not* an "escalation"??? Be honest...."
@@trevorsutherland5263that’s removing a unfair restriction, not an escalation. Russia always cries whenever they are met squarely and are confronted by their own methods.
I laughed at Russians "more or less volunteering" to the army. Yes, there is no official conscription in Moscow and Petersburg. But in glubinka (russian province, small towns and villages), especialy in far east provinces, this is regular manhunt. Typical way of coercing into army is arresting the guy by Police, and threatening him with charges of violently resisting police arrest. In Russia you can be sentenced to 15 years in labour camp with this kind of charge, so the poor guy is given an option: either 15 years in labour camp, or siging a contract with the army. This is one of the methods, but province governors are getting creative, since they are obliged (unofficially, of course) to deliver certain amount of conscripts each month. I know, it is hard for westerners to wrap their minds around realities of living in Russia, and there are steal many people in the west, who treat Russia like a normal country, but yeah. This is what Ukrainians are fighting against.
Oh my oh my, that sounds just like how the Gulag was filled by demanding quotas of the police units arresting people for disobedience or illoyalty or failing to produce a passport
That sounds 1000% believable for russia. I'm a Westerner & yes, I'll never understand the bs that goes on there, but I do know that if it'd be useful for the government if one of their own russian citizens ceased to exist, they'd get rid of them without a second thought. (Has that ever NOT been the case?) No wonder people live in denial.
I think it's great. There are all sorts of strategic motivations, or even just tactical ones, to explain this. I'll withhold my long litany of rationales here, but it shows vision and initiative to me. This isn't pointless or superfluous at all
@@valeriesolanas4077 the idea is best explained with an example: One could conquer a city by breaching the city wall, killing its defenders and conquering the city in one violent assault. Now someone might argue "but that is too brutal. You can not just breach the walls and kill the defenders." Therefore you siege the city until everyone has slowly starved to death. So the good intention of being less violent led to more suffering.
@@user-tt6il2up4o ukraines is taking les than a quarter of russias losses, 300 squarekilometers that what russias sommer offensive had taken, when ukraine took more than that last year you nazis called it a total failure
For information: The slogan of the Ukrainian nationalists is "Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!" - the Ukrainian Nazi EQUIVALENT OF "Heil Hitler!" With this cry, the Ukrainian Nazis staged the Volyn massacre and Jewish pogroms...
@@evgeniya7853 First, how does your whataboutery relate to @sunflower-tz's post? 2. If you go this way, you can find lots of Russian (or Soviet) crimes - what do you make of them ?
Du er simpelthen fantastisk at lytte til.!!!! Nyder dine opdates uanset perspektivet. Translate; Your are AWESOM to listen too! I enjoy your perspektive on all things!
Prøv 'military summary'. Den er prorussisk...men det her er jo ikke en fodboldkamp, hvor nogen holder med FCK og andre med Brøndby. ...unge mænd dør...sorry
Nice analysis. But one quick note from a US perspective, the DoD defines "diversion" in an operational context differently than how you used it (if that's a consideration for you.) DoD definition for reference: "The act of drawing the attention and forces of an enemy from the point of the principal operation; an attack, alarm, or feint that diverts attention." So if this was a diversion operation, it implies that there is a larger principal operation still to occur
Surely now Putin is fully realizing that his Special Military Operation isn't solely in his hands any longer that Ukraine has the ability to undo everything he's done over his 20 something career Mr. Russian President.
My perception is that Ukraine wants to have a piece of undisputed Russian territory as a bargaining chip. So that every peace/ceasefire talk would have to start with territorial exchange, not just current frontline.
Also, nobody really knows how the policies from Washington will look after November. Having a piece of sovereign Russian territory in hand would give them good leverage. Moreover, a territory for territory exchange would heavily disadvantage Putin. His people would inevitably ask, what was all this for?
There's a tragic side to that idea, Ilia. Ukraine's first offensive was very successful. The west put considerable pressure on Ukraine to use this success by immediately negotiating. Ukraine refused and chose the all or nothing option. Their country has been destroyed between that time and now. If Ukraine hits the negotiating table now it was all for nothing. And there will be no ceasefire. Negotiations will happen while the war continues at it's current ferocity.
I wish Biden would replace Jake Sullivan with you. You have a much more comprehensive understanding of this war than the advisors to the U.S seem to have.
Месяц назад
Im not necessarily saying you're wrong, but consider that they may have info that the public has no access to. Maybe he would make similar choices if he had to actually take responsibility for his actions.
Kursk has been liberated, denazified and demilitarised. Further there was a referendum and 100% of people voted to leave the Russian Federation and join Ukraine.
I got surprised for a moment when you said "Ukraine wants Russia to continue to be on the offensive", but the points of attrition and tired troops actually make sense. Excellent analysis.
While of course we should not over hype this, on the other hand, every estimation of what's going on has understated what we have learned further along about this offensive. Every new report seems to state that it's larger than we thought. Thanks Anders for a very balanced and nuanced analysis of the situation.
I agree that another reason may very well be that by taking the fight into Russia, Ukraine may be establishing a new normal that will be helpful to the project of escalation management.
What's escalation management? As soon as I saw that they incursion Russia, I thought they were going to use nukes. Why does nobody think they will use nukes?
Someone wondered whether putin worried more about the economy or the war. An economic collaps would end the war and that would be be bad for him. The new guy, a soviet era economist, that replaced shoigu has been trying hard to make the military industry to make more for less which seems impossible. It could be that this war ends for economical reasons, it is simply too expensive
My theory so far has been that Ukraine wants to flank the Luhansk frontline through Russia but I what Anders just said sounds even more likely. In any future peacetalks freezing the conflict at the current frontline will be unacceptable for Russia too.
Anything seems possible at this point, really. It's just too early to tell, which is probably why Ukraine is being quiet about what their actual plans are. I like the power plant hypothesis, since that seems like it would have quite an impact, but who knows. It could turn out to just be a diversion to force resource reallocation.
6:55 Washington micromanaging a conflict. Where have we seen this before... Vietnam perhaps? Washington should let UA properly defend themselves. Thats the most cost effective, casualty reducing play with better tactical and strategic outcomes.
If it were the defense department, well maybe... But the politicians, lawyers, & diplomats inhabiting the rest of Washington cannot successfully micro manage someone else's war half a world away.
2008-08-08 was the date russia invaded Georgia. They ALWAYS start invasions during Olympics. 2014 or 2022. Apparently two can play this game. News was watching Ukrainian boxer take gold as russians failed evacuating Kusk region.
