Sponsored by Private Internet Access, Use the following link to access their promotional offer: www.piavpn.com/Perun I'm very glad we decided to hold this video back a week as I believe it's allowed some observations and lessons, particularly about the earliest stages of the offensive to crystalise. I have no doubt we'll be coming back to this soon once the lines start to stabilise and it becomes clearer what Ukraine's intention is, but for the moment, I hope you enjoy this relatively early assessment. My reflective take at this point is that Ukraine's performance at a tactical and operational level so far in the region has been a step change from what we're used to seeing this year. The part that is up in the air for me is what the picture going forward, particularly at a strategic level will be. Ukraine took a risk on this offensive. Only time will tell on where that decision sits on the spectrum from folly to genius. As noted in the description, as this one is releasing after midnight and I am very jet-lagged, the list of sources and further reading will be updated tomorrow. Apologies for the delay.
@@jimb9063 One thing is already becoming clear: the strategy for the western side of the incursion. The bridges over the Seym west of Korenovo have all been blown. Ukraine has turned the Russian territory south of the river into basically a narrow peninsula, pinched up against the Ukrainian border. It's not very defendable at all. Russian troops have already abandoned the area west of the Seym near Tetkino, and there are reports of reducing troops in the whole surrounding area out of fear of encirclement. Ukraine is probably going to end up with that whole area under their control. The obvious northern boundary would also be the Seym (which would additionally turn Rylsk and the surrounding area into another indefensible peninsula). But trying to advance that far north would be.... ambitious. If they did pull it off, though, they'd have the Kursk nuclear power plant and as much territory as they took in the 2022 Kherson counteroffensive. But again, I'm dubious they could get that far. It's unclear what the plans would be for the eastern side of the incursion. There's no obvious "right" place to build defensive lines. The rivers are small, and the terrain rolling but not dramatic. Ukrainian action over there has also been more difficult, particularly in Giri.
@perun i believe one of the main objectives for ukraine in a sucessful kursk offensive was to provide justification for another 60 billion in us military aid in january 2025 from congress and senate from the Harris Administration. They had to show a reason why another aid package was justified and the kursk offensive showed why ukraine can win and succeed if supplied with weapons and ammo.
Thanks mate normally I'd listen while dealing with turning out livestock, dealing with switching out my K9 assault team. Sadly, the last two 2weeks, I have been in hospital and eating pain meds. So, thank you for one good day in the week.
I have a feeling that after this war UA officers will be guest lecturers at West Point, Sandhurst, and other western military academies well into the mid-21st century.
@wpatrickw2012 I really don't understand why there aren't a ton of nato officers at the front to study the battles. Like all nations did in the civil war or American officers during the battle of France in ww2
@@u2beuser714 "I think we've been fighting the wrong people all this time, but I've oiled my belly so I can stay with them on the Vodka. My front will be as good as theirs."
I still can't get over a picture I saw of some Ukrainian troops in a gas station buying hot dogs before hopping back in their vehicle to resume the invasion of Russia. This has been a weird war, man.
They have been placing reviews on Google maps of places they visit, like: Kursk is a nice place, will visit more often. Or: 'Can't drive my Humvee through the carwash' 'terrible service, no one speaks Ukrainian.... yet' Edit: before Russians hijack this comment: a review is made of a specific location and the next location can be completely different: a piroggi shop might not even have a car wash for instance. So: the part about no one speaking Ukrainian was about that ONE location reviewed in that ONE review
Pssst Special Military Operation ;) ;) Ukraine isn't invading Russia, they are just Denazifying it hahahahahha... But in all seriousness, war in the 21st Century is insane and crazy indeed
Between Ukraine not collapsing in general, the complete overestimation of Russian military capabilities, the Wagner Group “coup” and now the Ukrainian invasion of Russia this war is just full of surprises
All it takes is the whole world to unite against one country feel proud when your children live in poverty because of the debt we are throwing into this
@@madatarchives8725 What the West is giving to Ukraine is old equipment and chump change, meanwhile you don't have functioning toilet Sasha, who is the one living poverty then?
@madatarchives8725 I'm sure many Russian mothers and fathers would choose poverty if they had a chance to see or hug their dead sons one last time. It's time for Russians to go home and stop the war.
Bro I would pay double taxes just so that my kids and the kids of eastern europe don't speak Russian or Chinese. Economic competition is ok, but once they start wars, get outta here. Nothing good comes out of war and the world must know that the West is against invasions.
My interpretation is that Ukraine wanted to get out of the frozen stalemate. If it stays frozen too long, the idea of making peace with existing frontlines could grow in the West.
Not much progress, so they decided to wipe out Russians on the other side of the border for a change. The only constant in life is change, after all! 😆
Two little gems I enjoyed from other sources: - A babushka welcoming Ukrainian troops and speaking Ukrainian. - The Ukrainian post office announcing that it was planning to provide postal services in Kursk.
Demonstrates that the locals in Kursk know perfectly well that the Ukrainians aren't Nazis or whatever other garbage the FSB spits out. Sufficient time and contact with the truth render you resistant to bullshit.
The size of Russia is its biggest enemy and ally at the same time as there's no way 143 million can defend a border of that length but it's also almost impossible to conquer and hold large sections if land.
Was OP-SEC successful as Ukr didn't tell it's "Allies"? Germany appears awash with Russian spies poisoning bases, yet issues warrants for Ukrainians. While France is war-profiteering on selling Putin's gas, having halved domestic consumption France has over doubled it's imports to re-export at a profit.
Name one instance where news of a NATO supplied weapon system months in advance of its deployment in Ukraine rendered it useless by the time it got there?
Saw a great joke online, Putin is stressing about the invasion so he summons the ghost of Stalin. He says to Stalin, the not-sees are invading Kursk and our armies are crumbling what should I do? And Stalin replies, send your best Ukrainian forces to the front lines and ask the Americans for weapons
Two of the worst human blights on my ethnicity (or half I suppose - being a Russian-Ukrainian anti-authoritarian but only knowing how to speak Russian is truly one of the situations to be in) obliterated via big funny has reversed over 50% of my genetic clinical depression. Thank you stranger. 😂
@@badluck5647well yeah he's not part of the government so he isn't getting shit atm, and looks like the election isn't really going his way either lol
I saw a nice column of Canadian senator APCs rolling into russia. Nice to see Canadian equipment having a role in this historic moment. This is devastating to the russkiye mir.
Is it still legal to be Canadian and Patriotic? I foresee a similar outcome to what’s happening in the UK, Germany, etc headed our way. As in; Arrests for Social Media ‘Mean Tweets’ and unrest over our willingness to allow ‘Refugees’ flood inside this country and the crimes, violence that are associated with them. Our media conveniently suppresses these instances, but Canadians have had enough.
@@DriveByShouting Eh? None of what you actually claim happened. Let me guess. You get your 'information' from Fox and from various russian paid hate mongers.
Canadian, huh? I wonder if any of them have a bumper sticker reading "It's not a war crime if it's the first time"? 🤔 (shoutout to Habitual Line Crosser, I can't take credit for that line)
the mighty Russian military managed to advance all the way from Kiev to Kursk in just 900 days of a 3-day special operation, truly one of the military achievements of all time.
@@andrewharrison8436 There absolutely is. The Geneva Conventions (there are 4 of them in total) stipulates the boundaries on war. Anything not explicitly forbidden is allowed. From this observation we get the meme "It's not a war crime if you're the first to do it".
@@andersjjensen Ahh yes, I meant specifically about Ukraine invading Russia. I hadn't come across that meme - makes sense but is very cynical about moral values. There is also the meme: that history is written by the victors.
@@andersjjensenand capitalism responds with innovation. “No nation is allowed to build AI robot heat seeking Dogs, since they have a tendency to lacerate the groin area of the enemy and leave them to bleed out, out of what we can only imagine is pure AI spite”
@@andrewharrison8436 Is this like the thing where the dog scores the winning goal and the referee holding the rulebook is like "Huh, there's no actual rule against that".
@@andrewharrison8436 most of the wester allies are not permitted to be quiet about goes over - there is oversight - and really, you are not getting anything over there without Russia knowing about it anyway.
@@xBINARYGODxWhat Russia knows and what Russia claims to know, are two different things. Russia claims to have destroyed every Ukrainian aircraft.... twice. Russia claims to have destroyed donated equipment before it was even delivered. Russian MOD claiming that "we knew about that" isn't exactly credible
@@andrewharrison8436 As inconvenient it is on the battlefield, the transparency is absolutely necessary to assuage concerns from the donor nation civilians. What we're sending (especially here in the US) is under a constant microscope from every interested party under the sun. If it was being done in secret, with no transparency about the quality or state of equipment being sent, then bad actors could spin (even more) bad narratives around it.
And from this time forward, Ukraine shouldn't tell us about any upcoming offensives. We cannot have some deranged Western soldier leaking the entire plan on the internet. No more leaks, only misdirections. Even the West should be surprised when the Ukrainians attack, because if we don't know, the Russians sure as hell won't either. There are too many spies in the West.
You've left out one major advantage of this operation: Forcing Russia to keep attacking. Ukrainian strategy has relied on Russia launching costly attacks against fortified positions. As Russia's soviet stocks run down (still can't believe that's a thing that's actually happening), and Putin continues to resist wider mobilization, Russia could either slow down its attacks or stop them all together to give itself time to reconstitute its forces. By holding a piece of actual Russian territory Ukraine makes that much harder for Russia. A smaller and less certain advantage is the possibility of shortening and strengthening Ukraine's front lines. Looking at a map there are two more logical ways for Ukraine to expand this offensive with Sudza anchoring the flank. This would cut off what is effectively a shallow Russian salient or bring the lines up to a strong natural barrier.
In my opinion the offensive is also mainly aimed at a target that isn't completely mined, and the Russians being coy at mining their own territory, because they are probably aware how bad mined areas are, especially after fighting and when it maybe wasn't necessary.
Lol, Russians are people who would burn own cities to spite the enemy. The reason why they didn't do much about it, is related to fact that Russians are too large cartoon megalomaniacs to admit it could even happen.
His explanations are informative, succinct, and have enough humor to make them memorable and engaging. If you want to know about things in the Military Sphere, that makes it great for easing that twitchy part of your brain who just wants to understand some of it all.
They have a lot of information per time unit, are relevant to the current situation, explain what needs to be explained, without stating the obvious or being obtuse, have a clear topic and stick to it. In short everything we don't get in a work meeting.
May I suggest that it is not an objective of Ukraine to force Russia “to the negotiating table”, but rather to influence the attitude of Russia when it finally decides to go there
I would even suggest more - there is suspicious lack of Western modern heavy equipment. Sufise to say - polish PT-91 tanks are leading the charge. And those are modified T-72. Where are Leopards? Where are Abrams'? Is the Kursk offencive just a decoy for another offencive against weakened front?
Kinda like beating a child before they steal a cookie. Putin already laid out what he wanted over a year ago and it's really not that much of an ask. I'm sure your warmongering makes sense to you tho
Or to counter those among the allies that were pushing for peace under terms favorable to Russia. The slow albeit costly advance of Russian forces in Donbas was possibly softening public opinion. If one accepted the idea that Russia has a good chance of winning and breaking the back of Ukraine’s defense forces, one might think it was a good idea to freeze the lines now and negotiate a peace, before Ukraine lost more territory. The incursion into Kursk doesn’t completely negate this argument, but it sure as hell weakens it, and it does tend to make those advancing the argument look cowardly rather than realistic. The point being is that it forestalls diplomatic pressure on Ukraine to give Russia a settlement that heavily favors Russia. It’s going to strengthen support among the citizens of the allied nations, who may have begun to doubt the effort. Which opens a question about something that I doubt the Ukrainians were thinking about, but is an interesting factor nonetheless. I wonder how much this counter-offensive into Russia will affect the U.S. election. Even though support for Ukraine vs non-support (or even support for Russia) is divided in both parties, the incumbent Democratic leadership might see greater political support from voters who see the Republicans as soft on Russia. It isn’t entirely true across the board, but there’s enough high profile Republicans who are soft or friendly to Russia that the whole GOP is getting tagged as soft on Russia. (And thanks to Trump, they’re also getting tagged as anti-military.) I don’t think it’s enough to swing the election, but every bit helps.
Another aspect is that not informing their allies is that russia believes that Ukraine is a western puppet, even if the higher ups might not have drunk its own koolaid the lower levels very likely did. Because in their mind ukraine wouldn't do such a daring attack without allied feedback. And no american reaction= No offensive.
Należy to wiedzieć, Zachodnia Ukraina zawsze Rosyjska jest zamieszkana przez 80% Rosjan. Ukraina powstała z woli Rosji gdy agent Amerykański Gorbaczow rozwalił ZSRR.
I wonder if this did start as a defensive buildup in Sumy, before Ukr intelligence realized that the Russians weren't paying attention. How long has this been in the works, so to speak.
I imagine planning took a month, with buildup over a week or two. I suspect that the units committed will turn out to be units that were already in the region and could sneak away from their bases in a hurry.
Just a fun little bonus meme, but on twitter, a tweet went out from a Ukrainian account with a drawn Ukrainian soldier giving the shush finger and after that it felt like everyone nearly immediately shut up about exactly what was happening from the Ukrainian side lol. Which i think is so fucking cool.
Lmao, I know exactly which that was. Yeah, all the milblogger accounts were openly like, "shit's really cool, and we won't talk about it for some time". Lack of footage from Ukrainians has also been stark.
10:20 regardless of actual validity, the idea of Ivan crossing the border, and instead of finding sleep-deprived Pavel recharging a consumer-grade drone, found essentially well-rested Pavel geared with essentially full spectrum of ShotShow 2024 xD
One of Ukraine's biggest strengths has been its ability to find something that works and gives it the advantage, stop doing that when RU adjusts to counter and find the next thing RU is not prepared for instead. They have been consistently a move or two ahead on the macro scale.
@@MLHunt Literally nothing what did happen, wasn't unforeseen by actual military planers and they handbooks. Stupid media™ listening to military advisers for Hearts of Iron 4 and Russian Telegram, were the only ones who were surprised. People literally did predict Kursk offensive!
That is a problem since Ukraine relies on attacking somewhere where there are no enemy forces to succeed. Once there are in place, Ukraine always fails like in every major battle like Mariupol, Severodonetsk and Lycychansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukraine always failed
To all the Pro- Ukrainian channel's, please take this video as a example for how you can explain for your viewers about the war, without snitching on UAF. People should understand that in Ruzzia the officers doesn't report the truth about the situation, because they are afraid of the reaction from the general staff and the only way for the highest officers to learn about the situation is from western channels reporting..... 🙈🙉🙊 Slava Ukraine ✊💪🖖🇺🇦
@@jon-paulfilkins7820 To be fair, this is a pitfall for any military. Look at the U.S. military and political leadership having distorted pictures of the state of the war during the Vietnam conflict. The BS starts flowing up, down, and sideways. Then you get something like the Tet offensive that is like a bucket of cold water. It’s too early to tell, but this Kursk counter-offensive has a slight taste of Tet. It’s just a hint, though. Tet-Kursk doesn’t hold up as a useful analogy.
One thing I don't understand; everyone claims that to hold the conquered land, ukraine will need to deploy more forces. But if we look at the map, north of kursk the border creates a salient. If ukraine occupies that area, it will actually have less border to control. And if it reaches the river whose bridges were exploded in the last two days, it gains a significant water obstacle on it border. ultimately, ukraine may actually need less troops to defend the border after this operation than it needed before. russian population doesn't seem inclined to offer any kind of resistance or partisan activity, and if the russian army attacks there, well, those troops would have been used in donbass instead, so it doesn't change much - except that the war will ruin russian territory. Am i missing something?
The part where Russians are likely to push hard to get Russian soil back. They weren't previously attacking hard in this area. That said; I don't think Russia has much more to attack with than what it was already using. Whatever assault troops are going to be used around Kursk will most likely be troops pulled away from other parts of the front, which would mean that all this really did was move some of the fighting from Ukraine to Russia, which shouldn't make much of a difference in terms of troops requires.
@@ristoravela652There's no Russian militia making mollies and ambushing convoys. Not even Telegram warriors filming it. They've just sat around, pretending the war hasn't come to down.
@@ristoravela652 It does seem like it's created a bit of a dilemma for Russia. Either it pulls troops away from Ukraine, or it forces conscripts to fight. If it forces conscripts to fight, it might cause some political backlash as the entire country all of a sudden has to fear that their family members may be sent to their deaths. But if Russia gets away with it, then they have a huge fighting force to throw at Ukrainians. Bit of a risky move by the Ukrainians, but it might pay off. Still, in the mean time the Russian government has to deal with this dilemma and maybe warm the Russian population up to the idea of sending conscripts to fight. So Ukraine needs to take advantage of that confusion and delay to complete their objectives.
Nice to hear a more conservative* look at the events. As always, great work. *In the sense that many caveats were made to explain what we know and how certain we are about the events.
In the past year Russia has made very little gains, I live in a city that has around 2 million people and Russia has not even gained the size of my city with the loss of just over 300,000 troops, 6000 tanks and around 8000 armoured personnel carriers. Russia only gains ground when Ukraine runs low on ammunition.
@tomk3732 Russia has lost 300,000 troops in the past year, this is the confirmed death toll but doesn't include troops that were incinerated, vaporised, buried or died from their injuries after being evacuated. There is no way to know how many Russian soldiers have been seriously injured but the general rule is that each death you times by 5 for seriously injured and 20 for minor injuries. The seriously injured will never fight again but as has been shown by the Russian soldiers themselves there minor injured are being sent back into combat while still on crutches and with wounds that still have stitches.
Sure, Russia has lost 300,000 troops.....how many Ukrainians have they killed in the process? If you pay attention the entire Ukrainian economy seems to be running out of military-age men....seems odd if they are taking comparatively-few casualties, doesn't it?
@Noble713 the Ukrainian military has suffered very few casualties because they don't make stupid decisions. The majority of Russians that have died never even reached the Ukrainian lines, the Russian military continually sends its troops over the same ground using the same tactics that failed multiple times. The Russian military mindset is to use waves of troops to try and overwhelme the Ukrainian forces but the majority of Russian troops never get close enough to use their weapons. This is a very lopsided war that Russia can never win because the Russian military doesn't have any idea how to fight a modern war and lacks the infrastructure, competence and intelligence needed.
Wanted to thank you for doing this video. I know these extremely unclear situations aren't your favorite to cover for obvious reasons. However having come to know your style as it were, you provide a very useful conservative glimpse of the situation that I literally do not think I can get anywhere else. Most media in the states just wants clicks and views and tend toward the bombastic. Even well intentioned news sources tend to make even some basic assumptions that just cannot be made in this type of situation, which leads to everything else being tainted by that. Even if you do have to provide fifty caveats and can only paint a smokey picture at best, it is still the most *trustworthy* picture I can find and serves as a very useful baseline moving forward. It is a service that means a lot to me and helps greatly. So yeah, thanks again.
The elderly KGB agent used an ouija board to talk to Stalin's ghost ''Father of the peoples Stalin the nazis have entered Kursk with German tanks again! What should I do?'' Stalin: Simple do what I did just send the Ukrainians to the frontlines and ask the US for lend lease.
@@u2beuser714 because it is true. Ukraine with the pre war population of 30-35 mil lost 5-7 mil civilians during nazi occupation, russia lost 7-9 mil people during occupation, with a pre war population of 110 mil people, to compare. Ukraine and Belarus endured a giant bulk of nazi offensive, which gave time to gather recourses and defeat nazis, something that our good neighbours remember very well, calling us nazis now. 3.5 - 5 mil Ukrainians also died during Holodomor of 1932 - 1933, when most of produce was exported to industrialise the soviet union from regions such as Ukraine and Kazakhstan. To answer your question, we were oppressed by both and contributed with lots of lives both to ussr and defeating nazi Germany
@@sdovhfunlahsvisegbakshfjbs4621then would you mind putting together an equally well researched presentation on Ukrainian forces invading Russia. Would love to see your take on this if this video is in your opinion empty yapping
Thank you 💛 so much Perun for your excellent analysis/PowerPoint. I am so proud of the Ukrainian soldiers and how they have conducted themselves with honor 🎖 and their bravery. I think it's a brilliant move. Gives them bargaining chips. Maybe they will even open up a post office in Kursk. This war is a wild one full of surprises. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Glory to the heroes who have helped Ukraine. Thanks again Perun and have a great week!
Dude it gets even better..they set up an administrative command post in Sudza to oversee this raid/incursion ... the guy they decided to put in charge is called "Eduard MOSKALiov" lmaooo Ukraine's knack for trolling russians in any and every capacity whenever possible is just amazing. Two and a half years into it and they still take every opportunity
@@bryananderson3772 Sorry little guy, but your side lost, you bet on a dead horse. It happens. What you are doing to suggest that you're winning is just embarrassing your side. Have some dignity in losing, be the first Russian to say this is enough, you win, I'd rather not have my fellow countrymen wasted for this stupid war that putin chose. ... nah, that's not gonna happen.
I think russia was definitely working under the assumption that Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, and it was a mix of underestimating Ukrainian audacity (check, never underestimate Ukrainian audacity when it comes to making bold moves) and underestimating America’s willingness to permit them to do this. There’s no way the White House didn’t know about this and either approved of it, or committed to not condemning it which is basically the same thing.
Given American behavior in this war thus far (AKA, slow walking literally everything bigger than artillery and javelins since the start of the war), I highly doubt the US knew about it or the Biden admin would absolutely have fought to keep them from doing it.
Flanking, diversionary attacks and probing for weak points were part of European military tactics from ancient times... It's not something this obvious only ever occurred to one person, once. Probably dates back to the time some Neanderthal worked out that you were less likely to get squished if you snuck up *behind* the Wooly Mammoth.
@@MarcosElMalo2It's a basic strategy principle now because of people like Sun Tzu who popularized it. Almost all of our common sense is hard earned by our ancestors. His strategy predates chess, for example, by about a thousand years.
People mistake Power Point as being inherently bad. It's not. It is bad when the presenter does not engage their audience and hold their engagement with entertainment. Perun does both, both visually and audibly. Add in the honesty, the pragmatism, and only minor efforts into speculative possibilities, it makes a compelling, informative watch that is hard to find anywhere else. Pretty sure that's why people sub and come back week after week.
@@poseidon5033 There a difference between whos winning and who will win the war. When germany launched barbaross it was WINNING the war but it havent won in the end.
@@ThomasZukovic Probably had something to do with the fact that the country they invaded secured lend lease materiel from the United States as a direct response.
I didn't know how much I was looking forward to this until it dropped. I was wondering if you'd refrain from commenting since it's still a developing situation. But now I really have something to listen to before the week's over!
26:35 "Reality is probably somewhere in the middle, although not IN the middle" is an excellent way to articulate a point I often find frustrating when discussing news, be it about war or non-violent politics. In a world where so many people take the position of "both sides are lying" and assume the middle, all that happens is the advantage goes to the side who can reach deeper up their butt. Not wanting to pick a specific side, but needing an example: it personally has been a frustration of mine in American politics with people who claim they "don't like either side" believing trump. People know "both sides exaggerate and lie for their benefit" so they gravitate to the person who is "the best" and does everything "perfectly".
Yeah do not get me started. And I see it from the viewpoint of a person who trained to fight soviets. Read my history, not just syllabus requirements...the later life experience teaching logistics classes never could.
Luckily, sometimes we have objective facts to fall back on. Before T, the last 6 presidents started 27 wars (fewer depending on what you count as a separate war, but still). T started none, and withdrew (WITHOUT abandoning troops or equipment) from some existing conflicts. No attempts were made on the lives of those 6, yet inexplicably T is the most recent exception. "They" only go after the good ones: the ones who DON'T enrich the military industrial war machine, or DON'T support the abuse of fiat currency. On top of all that, none of the major troublemakers attempted anything while T was in charge. If a few mean remarks and trade restrictions are all it takes for world peace, I'll take it. But wait, that's not all! We also had a better situation at home, too! If there's a single objective reason to reject T besides hurt feelings, I've yet to hear of it.
@@r3dp9 It's a pretty sweet deal, Russia helps Trump get elected and Trump reduces American foreign involvement. Trump should have used all those resources wisely to improve the lives of the average American and he could have even been reelected, but that healthcare plan he bragged about never materialized, i guess Trump was busy prioritizing foreign interests and never got around to that part.
@r3dp9 as a European, I agree. T is all about cheap rhetoric, but the blue party is heavily trending towards the extreme left and we're seeing its results even in Europe, such as media censorship or pushing for equality of outcomes. They are intellectualizing the far left as normalcy, while denouncing all other political views (including T) as far right. I guess I'm happy enough the powerpoint guy dropped his weekly vid.
I don't find it interesting at all, but it is nice to get a firm example of why we gotta be careful about not overlearning lessons from Ukraine. The West should continue building our armies for another Desert Storm, not Verdun with added drones as certain Chiefs of Defense are asking for.
Maneuver warfare works when you’re troops are trained well and the enemy is static, which is why the west does it. Trench warfare sucks. We had one. We don’t want another.
I feel like this sort of operation also has a similar effect to the HIMARS road trip. Russia now has to treat the entire border like it might be invaded now, and has to allocate disproportionate resources to defend everywhere from a threat that could be anywhere if they don't want a repeat
I agree RE:russian response. Seeems like they're all figjting internally on not being blamed for the breach and getting responsibility for once Ukraine is pushed out... without taking too much independent risk. FSB, military, individual oligarchs, all the way down to local politicans have fragmented responses and interests
The one factor that should be noted is the recent Russian incursion was a tipping point. Russian was CLEARLY abusing the 'no shoot russian land' rule. With that rule collapsing more each day after the first permission was grated, it then basically opened up the ability for Ukraine to DO this incursion. Only Russia doesn't seem to have fully processed/accepted ALL the ramifications of their actions until it was FAR too late. They were still in the mindset that these areas were relatively safe, ignoring the occasional russian dissident group raid.
Or maybe the simple two reasons 1) The AFU happens to be good at what they do and 2) to quote an AFU source "We are lucky they are so fucking stupid" 😆
36:00 that himars mainly got hit because the hiding spot was just 1km from the firing spot... it wasn't the russians being good, it was the ukrainians being negligent
@@ThomasZukovic leaving your border practically undefended during a full on war isn't a sign that russia is good at all. and yes it is a war, even if russia denies it. if it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it is a duck.
@@ThomasZukovic if you leave your bicycle on the sidewalk in front of your home and it gets stolen, that doesn’t mean the thieves were good. It means they saw an obvious opportunity because you made a mistake.
I saw this and I've never clicked on a RU-vid video so fast after a rough week this is much needed also I've just been looking forward to another Perun PowerPoint. Thanks much. 🥃
There is a political factor with regard to the US. Spectacular success by Ukraine may weaken Trump by indicating Ukraine is not inevitably beaten and so there Is decreased impulse to vote for trump and his promise to end the war on day one by withdrawing aid to Ukraine. A trump defeat is plainly a positive fesult for the entire world.
You might be right, but I don’t think this was part of the Ukrainian decision making nor a goal. Not all GOP politicians are lukewarm towards Ukraine, or soft on Russia, but the noisy ones are. The GOP as a whole is going to get tagged with this, just as they’re getting tagged as being anti-military because of comments that Trump and Vance has been making. Meanwhile the Democrats look like they are on the right side of history. If the Kursk counter-offensive makes a difference in the U.S. election, it will be a small one. Still, every bit helps.
A Trump defeat may be good for Ukraine, but would be bad for Israel so it depends entirely on which area of the world you care about more. Most of the party faithful aren't going to be moved by real world facts, they've already decided where their vote goes. The independents have a limited amount of time or interest to monitor foreign affairs and that attention span is divided between hearing surface level news about Ukraine and the Middle East. And it is surface level: most people don't spend time watching these campaigns in any detail. I'm not sure how much of a factor the Ukraine situation is going to be in the vote, given the economy is always number one and foreign affairs much further down the list.
@@Blackened30 Assuming she wins? Harris will still have a delicate balancing act to do with the Senate and Congress. For the foreseeable future? Continued military aid for Ukraine will be predicated on continued military support for Israel (which is likely to be anathema to Harris). This is especially the case since Bi Bi's continued hold on power is largely dependent on the the war in Gaza continuing for as long as possible and then shaping whatever peace deal is finally signed as a 'victory' for Israel. So I would guess a lot will depend on how strong her support for Ukraine is vs how much she detests the ongoing war in Gaza. ☹ That and turning around the numbers in the Senate and or Congress.
@@Blackened30Letting Israel have unlimited claims to the Middle East makes it less safe. Look at how Israel is trying to expand into the West Bank and attacking Lebanon and Iran. Bibi's coalition has no interest in peace and actively wants to take "historical claims". They would lose power if there were elections. A minister last year showed a map that includes present-day Egypt, Jordan, etc.
I had been expecting this assault for a long time. The Russian offensive post-Avdiivka was being ground down, Khokhols were herding Orcs into a pocket in Vovchansk, the summer was almost ending. At the same time, Ukraine was holding the Russians at bay up north, around Vovchansk, but was facing problems. I was expecting Ukraine to cross the border and attempt to outflank Russian elements in Kharkiv oblast.
@@meilinchan7314Orcs? 🤔 Those fantasy creations idiots like you were trying to cancel,calling them racist and claiming they somehow represented Africans?......so your essentials calling the Russians a barbaric African? 🤔 Idk,seems a little racist to me.
@@rezoanmahmud5165 Winter won't save you, Komrade. The Ukrainians are inured and their will resolute. This winter will be a nightmare for Russians as Ukraine has blasted their oil refineries and crippled their access to heating oil and refined fuels. Now who will be the people eating their pet hamsters over Christmas? 🤣
