Ukrainian Counteroffensive - Coming Success or Looming Failure? 

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The fact that this guy got sponsored by a strategy war game while talking about an ongoing war is insane.

WW2 took 6 years to end. The fact of the matter is war takes time. When you're living through a historic moment, sure feels like forever doesn't it?

Re: 12:13 It's a lot easier to replace a tank than a trained tank crew, and walking away from a defeat can be a powerful lesson. This is why ensuring crew survivability, even at the cost of combat performance, is so important. (Of course, the US approach is to keep the combat performance, and just spend more to get crew survivability)

We have to remember that this is not the kind of war we in the West have become used to. This is not an army with an overwhelming advantage attacking a far weaker, disorganised middle eastern military of little more than bandits. These are two well equipped armies, fighting a destructive war of attrition. This is not a mass mechanised offensive to quickly capture important positions. This is closer to WWI tactics, or the Iran-Iraq war from 1980-88

3:24 more precisely, that was a number of vehicles damaged by landmines after a UK-supplied de-mining vehicle failed to effectively clear mines in a safe corridor that it was supposed to create for a breakthrough. The troops had to abandon the damaged vehicles and retreat. At least some of those have been recovered later, repaired and are back in service. Reportedly, the density and size of minefields created by Russians on their 1st defensive line is unlike anything any army has ever encountered.

Thank you for calling out sushko, the guy is completely unhinged and would spread bonkers propaganda without checking it even for a second. Also one other thing worth mentioning regarding the shift in ukrainian strategy, they've been putting a lot more effort into their counter battery than previously, utilizing gmlrs to hit specific russian artillery pieces and positions. Both ukrainian government and russian mil vlogger sources noted that and i think it's a pretty important thing to consider. Russian defenses rely on artillery just as much as those fortifications themselves, heavy attrition of artillery has a potential to create openings for ukraine to exploit as well.

The media has been like "Ukraine not instantly destroying much larger nation" for months now.

Short answer : No lol

Without air superiority, modern warfare looks more like WW1 than WW2. It will look like stalemate until one side breaks through.

The biggest mistake that was made by Ukraine's allies imo happened after Ukraine had liberated Kherson. It happened in November of 2022, Ukraine has just launched an enormously successful offensive in the east and liberated the city of Kherson(the only regional center Russia was able to capture). After that, Russia's morale plummeted, many pro-Kremlin bloggers started whining over inevitable loss, Putin started mobilization and tens of thousands of Russians started escaping to neighboring countries. Instead of capitalizing on that momentum, the west spent months arguing over sending tanks and heavy equipment, refused to send F-16s and long range missiles giving Russia necessary time to build up defenses which it didn't have in November and train their troops to try and resist the Ukrainian attempt to liberate its'land. That's the problem that brought us in such a complicated situation where ukrainians have to storm well fortified Russian positions making gains far slower than they could have if their western allies didn't waste so much time on childlike arguments like "hey America, I'll send Leopard-2s to Ukraine buuuut only if you send your Abrams tanks"

Short answer: no Long answer: noooooooooooo

I always love how the West tells Ukraine to fight like NATO but never gives them enough toys to do so

It's always important to know, that an offensive against a fortified line is extremely hard and difficult. A breakthrough without bigger losses is basically impossible. Not even mentioning the ammo shortages, lack of long range rockets or not having air superiority. It's gonna be intense and bloody. Best regards for the ukrainian soldier's Edit: Many tankies and Z Fans here

No plan survives contact with the enemy, adapt, persevere, win.

Keep believing Ukrainian data

just a reminder we are in the midst of war time propaganda as well

That sponsor was an... interesting choice, Adam. Edit: this was meant as a joke folx please chill

Love that PowerPoint presentation videos are now just referred as "Perun-style". Aussies are taking over the world mates.

Westerners slowly send equipment and then they complain counteroffensive is slow. Well, maybe it would go much faster if Russians didn't get plenty of time to fortify...

Cant get enough of perun style videos

So this video is a definition of copium

12:00 Lately a lot of people call the Leopard crap and a failure. It got taken out in Syria and in Ukraine therefore bad tank. All I see is that the Leopard holds up. Admittedly I don't know who died or got injured. However from videos out of Syria you can clearly see crew leaving the tanks after being hit, in Ukraine you can't see dead crew anywhere near a Leopard. The completely disintegrated Leopards in Syria afaik got airstriked by Turkey to prevent capture. In Ukraine we have seen Lancet drones hit Leopards and PzH2000 and the crew got out and was fine. Yes the tank gets taken out but the important part is the trained crew survives. The tank can often be repaired if recovered. If the crew is dead at the first encounter they can't learn, improve and pass on their experience. Russian tanks often kill their crew when hit due to the open ammunition carousels of the auto loader. However the fact remains a hit that takes out a T-80 probably also takes out a Leopard and here is the kicker it probably also takes out an Abrams. So all those waiting for the Abrams to bulldoze the defensive lines will probably be very disappointed. The difference is the Leopard crew has a good chance to survive a hit, the T-80 crew has a good chance to becomes cosmonauts.

I'd say the choice of advertisement wasn't the best... An entire video talking about a "Horrible war is happening" which ends with "Want to play pretend of a war and be victorious by killing others?". Either way, thanks for the update!

Perun really is an amazing channel that deserves a sub. That man puts so much effort into his videos that militaries actually use his videos for educational purposes and briefs ... no bs, the dude is a professional.

Glad to see your presentation style has become based and Perun Powerpoint-pilled.

“Where’s my pig?” -Nicolas Cage

I was just about to call out the Perun cosplay

The defensive lines in Kherson and Kharkiv were stagnant for months while Ukraine decimated supply lines.

One very important factor you did not properly touched, Russia still has a massive air advantage, while not having a full air superiority due to AA, it still plays a significant role

everyone on YT has become a war expert

Please stick to urban planning. Your Russophobia and lack of military acumen is unbearable.

Really not happy about Adam taking sponsorship from these stupid apps. Like I was just waiting for him to drop a video criticising modern capitalism and the stupid sponsorships youtubers take instead of focusing on quality and patreon, aka the TikTok model of consumption but alas, nobody is perfect, and it can be hard to analyse your own biases.

war sucks. RIP to all the young men who have died. hope ya have peace in the afterlife.

Man, I know money is always money, but the sponsor ad here is really fucked up.

Perun is awesome. He def deserves a sub

I love that "the Perun format" is a thing. More power to the PowerPoint.

AzovSomething

love when there is no need to change the video speed to 1.25 cuz it`s in 1.25 already

so MS Powerpoint is now considered "Perun-style". I love it.

so russia lost 2200 tanks, but ukraine needs just 300 to win. hard to believe.

Me: Mom I want Perun Mom: We have Perun at home Perun at home:

Part of me wonders is some people think this as a football game, or like a HOI4 game. The hype for this offensive was equivalent to a fucking movie release. You can't just focus all your space marines to one tile. Everyone seems to not consider the fact that one of the major aspects of attacking is how many lives will it take. Trying to find the weak point for a breakthrough, while also keeping as many solders alive is a delicate balance. Nobody has to think about this in a HOI4 German world conquest game.

7:21 dude just picked the best Prigozhin photo possible

So in other words, like all wars, how the war is going is a little more complicated than simply saying only one side is winning and the other side is losing. However Ukraine still does seem to have the upper hand.

Yeaah, Perun is awesome! I've been following him since the start to of the war.

your hole video is basiclly sugar coating the failed offensive

The one thing the Ukrainians absolutely had to avoid was: Throwing their best forces into an all-out offensive right into a fortified defense and lose them. The slow and steady approach is exactly correct.

two motnhs in counteroffensie, no reaching of first line od russian defense, still not a failure...ssounds like cheerleadding

The ad was in kind of bad taste, I'm sure you could have done it in a different video and use like manscaped or whatever VPN or something instead.

The Korea scenario seems like an unlikely outcome to me. The Korean War (the active part, I suppose) ended with a relatively short line of control between the two main combatants (i.e., the DMZ is about 10% of South Korea's perimeter and only about 6% of North Korea's), and it's rough, mountainous terrain for the most part. The DMZ is also flanked by water on both sides. The pre-2014 land border with Russia is about 26% of Ukraine's perimeter, and if you throw in Belarus and Transdnistria, it's just about 50% of Ukraine's border. The land is also relatively flat. So a pure cease-fire is going to leave a lot of potential for cheating - sabotage groups crossing the border, kidnappings and assassinations - stuff that happened in Korea too post-cease-fire, but probably on a larger scale. It seems likely that one or more of such incidents will provoke a renewal of the conflict.

This is so insanely insensitive. Getting a war game sponsor for a video about a real war? Are you insane? You know that dozens and hundreds are dying regularly right???

That sponsor is a bit on the nose, don't you think? LOL

Homie took a page out of Perun's notebook and went full PowerPoint on us.

Good copium, will use as bait

Bottomline: warfare is very difficult, it's not a videogame, where the player controls the battle like a deity, just pointing and clicking to manoeuvre the units around, does not make you a general. Ironic, since Adam promoted a strategy war game, nevertheless, people have gotten to accustomed into thinking war unfolds like a simulator, predictable moves and countermoves, based on the gaming mechanics, the programme can only do what it's designed to do, so it gives the impression to the player that war and battle, follows linear patterns, making you think you are a legitimate strategist. So to my keyboard warriors, and armchair strategists, unless you have served in any of the armed forces, you are in no position to lecture anyone about the nuances of warfare, if you wanna be smart, take out your notebook and take notes, for once, you might actually learn something outside of virtual reality.

If we look at the big picture, it doesn't matter whether the offensive succeeds (that is, reaches its objectives, you can trade favorably and gain ground but it'd still count as a failure) or fails. The collective West has been senselessly self-deterring (if you show strength, you can just walk over Putin because he's weak and can't do anything, if you display weakness by for instance delaying sending "offensive weapons systems", then Putin sees weakness and escalates), and at least by appearances has been playing a game of chicken with the military aid where no individual nation wants to shoulder the burden of eating into their stockpiles of actually modern good kit, hoping others swerve first and send more than just scraps to keep Ukraine afloat. But the West is committed enough now that they can't politically back down, and if it looks like Ukraine might lose, suddenly they'd find extra couple of hundred Leopard 2s and stuff. Ditto for munitions: the West has been really slow about increasing production, being unwilling to give manufacturers long-term contracts to secure their investment in increasing production lines and all that, but it's getting there, and the collective West can spend basically infinitesimal part of their GDP and still outproduce Russia by a wide margin. The only real question is not if Ukraine will win, but if they win a costly grinding attritional victory that ended up costing more materiel and lives (including Russians) than giving them the tools to win quickly and decisively, or if they win quickly and decisively, or if Russian Federation collapses first. This is a modern industrial war and this logic dictates Ukraine victory is about as assured as US victory in the Pacific war over Japan.

what are your sources? can you please list them?

Thanks for the perspective. I always appreciate your point of view on whatever topic you take on.

Ukraine needs more boom boom tools. It needs them consistently to not give the Russians a break.

Love the choice of Prigozin pic.

It seems what they really need are some attack helicopters to counter the alligators and a hefty number of ground-attack/fighter-bomber aircraft.

Bro that ad placement is a bit disrespectful no?

The issue with large scale combined arms pushes for both parties is that you can't keep it a surprise anymore. A "transparant battlefield", as Millenium7* puts it. Within 20-30km from the frontline you're ALWAYS at risk of having something explosive dropping on your lap, except for when you're in hardened cover. Due to EW there are pockets of safety, but the coverage required to fully hide a combined arms force stands out. Being loads of EW systems concentrated around a weak spot in the defences, and all that.

That sponsored ad was incredibly tasteless

why does this guy keep trying to sugarcoat everything?

Me expressing sincere and intense shock when a modern war slows to a trench stalemate.

Long live Ukraine ❤

but how will this affect LeBron's legacy?

Would you be able to talk about the new proxy struggles in Africa? Russia and Wagner group have fostered and nurtured a very tight relationship with many countries, and their proxies have coup d'Etat their way into power in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali. This is making it harder for Ukraine to get support. I even recall that African leaders visitied Kiev, were forced to hide by shelling FROM Russia, and they came out denying that any shelling had happened. Plus, the grain exports have been halted by Russian attacks, but even then many leaders insist Russia is in the right.

Follow Perun, great unbiased coverage and analysis

This must be one of those scammer accounts Perun was talking about. Be careful guys, don’t give him your mom’s credit card info.

The main issue here is the Western fear of russian empire collapse (or too fast collapse). The same fear we saw in 1990+. This limits everything.

Oh, Adam, you seem to really be inspired by Perun, haha. Great channel choice, I appreciate

Please do video on American school shooting, and have it sponsored by Smith& Wesson

Ad "So don't waste time." *footage shows a nuke falling on Switzerland* As a Swiss citizen, I felt that... Also, thanks for the update

The lack of artillery shells and its resolution is not so much a question of time as it is a question of a market for it. The only way for production to increase, is for the industry to hire professionals along with other investments, which they can ABSOLUTELY DO, except it costs money, money which could be recuperated in time with volume of sales, but right now, there's a LOT of political uncertainty about how long will this war last, so neither the government or its military contractors care too much about fronting that cost. With the slow progress of the counter-offensive , I'd expect this uncertainty to grow even further, as Ukraine becomes a sinkhole of money and gear without anything to show for it.

The counter attack completely failed, what is here to say

I have the feeling that this is in many places like a siege of some medieval fortress, those took years sometimes

Thank you for the video!

Perun is a fantastic creator love this out of left field video

Don’t you think it’s kind of in bad taste to have a war game sponsor a video on the Ukraine-Russia war?

The link to Perun's channel does not work.

That sponsor was an... interesting choice, Adam.. Cant get enough of perun style videos.

Ok, so Adam Something unironically had an add for a war simulation game? Why not for a farming simulator, that would actually had a spicier relevance to the topic of this video.

ukraine has stated that for a full on counteroffensive they need artillery and air superiority which they currently dont have and wont have for another year at least (if thing go very well with training and delivery of f16 and ammo). i dont know what people expect, but some channels clearly have a business model for which they need the hype, so every single russian piece of equipment that gets blown up is presented as a major win and whatnot.

I love your videos, excellent research, excellent presentation

Thank you for the straightforward explanation!

I've been waiting for that video ! Thank you as always. My thoughts align with yours. I remember a couple of weeks ago when the Ukrainians advanced in the gap between Robotyne and Verbove everyone was like "Mariupol before September!" And I thought "how ?". There are more lines after line 1 and it's still a long road to the Azov sea

Defensive action is always easier than offensive action. It will take time but I do not doubt Ukraine will win but will take months. Plus when winter hits things will slow.

Whats this a *PERUN* Style Powerpoint presentation? Ohh you saucy minx !

Thank you - for a reality based assessment and report.

But Perun uploads a new video every weekend... and he's using more orange 😮

"The Perun Format" 😄 This does seem to be a great format for discussing complicated and technical subjects. If it ain't broke; don't fix it.

There was some footage where some Russians where next to the vehicles inspecting them in that failed offensive and there where some corpses around them.

Perun format, but where is the remaining 45 minutes?

It’s worth considering if it was actual Ukrainians bigging up the counter offensive, large part of that was done by Russia bots to make any outcome seem like a failure.

Always happy to see a new citizen of Perunistan. (I did find your lack of Aussie accent a bit lacking. Where is that accent supposed to be from, Kiwiland?)

I feel like there's some possibilities besides continuing the grind - Russian artillery losses are soaring, new SHORAD outranges KA-52's AT missiles, and the attacks on Russian logistics lines continue. These factors could build to critical levels and produce another collapse. They might not, of course, but I hope they do.

Thanks for review, Adam. Short note that two cities were written incorrect: it should be Odesa and Pokrovsk.