Do an video on how to make this model from scratch if you can in the comments it’s looks like an request video you showed us how it work not how to do it ourselves from scratch good knowledge though
It is the difference between our probability and the sportsbook probability. Then divide by the sportsbook probability. What I really like to look at is what is my expected value vs how much risk do I have to take. I speak on this in this video ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-ljBWxMC8fiI.html
How are you determining what the book is saying the % it will hit at based off the prices of the lines? You said +138 and -177 the -177 the book is saying 63.9% it’ll hit, how did you figure that out?
This is called implied odds. There are calculators online for this but the calculation is simple. For negative odds take the odds and divide them by 100 ess than the odds. For -177 the calculation is -177/-277=63.9%
@@SharpAppSportsBetting How can I use that Sports army sheet that gives you player averages each week? That sheet gives you the averages with injuries, weather, opposition strength and other factors already factored in yeah?
I have been using a normal distribution formula for points, rebounds, assists, and the different combinations. The standard deviation is generated from the players game log. Is it better to lean on the poisson distribution instead?
When you are figuring out the probability for points you should be using norm dist for sure. The rebounds and assists should be poisson. When combining them it is a little less clear but I think the easiest was is to use norm dist for those.
