2 week trial of Trademate Sports (Quote "Smart Sports Trader" in the chat after signing up) - bit.ly/32sUY6J Oddsmonkey Free Trial - bit.ly/3QIFgdo 2 week trial of Rebelbetting - bit.ly/3xkbMMl For US and Canadian bettors we recommend Oddsjam Free Trial Link - bit.ly/3xbfS8c You can learn more about value betting below - smartsportstrader.com/value-b...
How much you need then? Like 10k or more? And with many softbookies you can't even put in that big bets on these small random markets.@@SmartSportsTrader
ArbAdviser has been my go-to software for profitable betting, and I've seen impressive results. The upcoming software update has me eagerly waiting to see what enhancements will be introduced.
Does value betting on exchanges or asian bookies with a tool work? I would say they should about be the correct odds. Some people would even use pinnacle to compare bets to... But then on other hand, betting exchanges and asian bookies are probably only accurate for high profible events. Not some random games nobody is betting on. And when liquidity is low on exchanges odds can change. So maybe it's just being at the right time in a low liquid market?
You pretty much nailed it, earlier markets are where the value spots can be found on exchanges and Asians. Close to game time your not really going to find anything, unless you can get a jump on the lineups.
Because i'm having fun now stealing from soft bookies. But eventually i'm going to get banned. I'm actually a pro on betting exchanges and prediction markets but only because i have an edge myself in markets i know something about and do long research before i make a bet. Now i also use a tool to search for bets but then you basically have to trust the average of the market is right. That's different then being a sharp bettor yourself who has some internal odds. But the later i found just very time consuming and also makes your brain tired lol. It's easy if you can use some type of tool. And you can do more volume of bets, so the variance will be lower. And cover more markets to diversify. But i'm not sure if it's that easy to just do value bets on exchanges etc... @@SmartSportsTrader
I actually seen a cool study that says that prediction markets are about right in predicting events with only a margin of error of 4%. So on like the grand total of all markets, they will be that accurate...
Is there a good method to deliberately lose bets on a good bookmaker to use for value betting? I have been using bet365 for a while now and im up about £400 - I wondered whether I can deliberately lose some bets on bet365 and lay them at an exchange in order to reduce my profit. The issue is I would only be at a negative edge by about 5% when trying to lose money so im not sure the best way to do this.
Not really, you could make some -ev mug bets before you withdraw for the longevity of the account or try to lose it all into the exchange but like you say you will have to eat the commission on it.
I'm looking to have a go at value betting. I'm considering betting on odds of around 3 or less to get a higher win rate, or is it better to sometimes go for higher odds? How close to the event start do you place the bet to avoid a drift on the odds? How many bets does it take to start noticing profit? Is it more profitable to straight bet rather than to lay the bet also? Thanks.
A lot of it is personal preference. In terms of the times I take value bets. If its a big market happy to take them pretty early 7 days out. The more volume you put in the greater chance of generating a decent profit. It is more profitable to straight bet but if you wanted to reduce variance you can lay selections.
Hi Ryan, thanks for the information ive followed you for a while and appreciate your videos. Obviously after many years of matched betting / arbing ive lost a a few accounts is trademate and rebels sharps and exchanges worth looking at i know they are expensive but do they provide value on the exchanges and asian markets? Cheers
The main issue I had was the liquidity wasn't great at the exchange. Given the cost of the software its hard for me to recommend it purely for the exchange. In the new year looking at setting something up which will focus on profiting from the exchanges. Might be of interest to you and would be at a much lower price point.
whats your best bank roll amount to start with from your experience? Considering money is not a problem but at the same time you don't want to raise too many red flags by betting too big.. what would you recommend? 5k/10k/20k?
Just started out using my gubbed accounts. Hoping to make a few grand off them before opening some new accounts for the girlfriend. The goal is £15k for a solar panel and battery set up.
fellas.. if im spending a month overseas as a tourist or as part of work.. would the bookmakers or exchanges still allow me to bet? i.e. betfair 365 ladbrokes and etc..
@@SmartSportsTrader thanks for the response mate. I've tried to do that but it seems that they are blocking vpns even if you change your location in the UK to different places i.e. london/edinburgh/manchester.. somehow they can detect it??
@@ReducedEvasiveDetach I used a VPN on holiday in Greece for Betfair and Smarkets which worked. Think I used NordVPN, have heard Bet365 block them but if you have a dedicated IP should work.
By the start of the game they will be generally efficient. However in the days leading up to the games where isn't as much liquidity there are opportunities.
@@petardoh Not always as Pinnacle doesn't the biggest on some markets. It's a little big more advanced and you have to read the market as a whole. For example sometimes soft bookmakers will offer bigger limits on early markets. You have to spend some time analyzing the markets as a whole and notice patterns.
Create your own modelling to determine probability and hence odds of an event occurring or not occurring. If the market price is higher than your odds then you have found value. Strategies always need testing and tweaking but that’s the general method of finding value bets on exchange.
Not a silly question at all. Most of the time leave it as a straight bet. If I can get a decent amount down and I'm pretty certain the odds shorten I will trade some of the stake. To reduce the liability and increase the odds on the bet.
i get finding the % but i cant wrap my head around how this is favourible for us. your just getting better odds. they still need to win the game and if they lose, you lose
because the odds you are getting are higher than the probability of the bet winning ... hence the name value betting. its a +ve ev play that will mathematically win in the long term
Think of the coin toss, if you could get odds of 2.5 for heads then that is value and long term you win even though the result will be around 50% heads 50% tails
how do you identify what is a value price and when to back it? - if you look at pinnacle for example on top level football there are dozens of opportunities to back bigger on the exchanges, even allowing for their commission.
Good video, I switched from trading to value betting about 3 years ago, I found I was giving up too much value by trading instead of value betting (laying actually).
@@Victor-lv2ok I've only got two accounts, one with Betfair, one with Betdaq but I've been told, by people I trust, that both Matchbook and Smarkets are good exchanges. Because I'm laying, my action is on Exchanges.
I got massive results on rebelbetting but got limited very very fast on soft bookies. I know a bookie with soft bookie odds that dont limit you but it is restrited on my country.
