Video Shows How Sailing Yacht Can List Over at 90 Degrees | SY News Ep373 

The Bayesian disaster - in very simple terms for the layperson. This is a one in a million tragedy but we should examine the facts and learn from them. Bayesian boasts the second highest mast in the world at 75 metres on a length of 56m. She has a lifting keel to enable her to get into shallow areas. Fully down it gives a draft of 9.83m and raised a draft of 4m. A sailing yacht has a keel to counter the heeling moment generated by the power of her sail plan. I’m sorry to say that size matters to a superyacht owner and naval architects are seduced into providing solutions. As yacht size increases the resistance of the hull reduces in proportion, so less sail area is required to adequately power longer yachts. But these floating fashion items are driven by appearance and bragging rights - and you lose prestige if someone has a bigger mast than you. Always the status pecking order questions are - how big - how fast - what cost - and is it black? If you designed Bayesian with a reasonable sail area and a ‘normal’ mast she would not look impressiive - which is what superyachts have to be. The stability of a yacht has to be sufficient to counter the power of the rig but, as mast heights increase, the keels can often become so deep that the places of interest are restricted hence the lifting keel solution. Stability comes from two factors - the hull form and the ballast keel which acts like a pendulum. As the yacht heels the volume of the immersed section produce a buoyancy force which resists heeling. Initially the keel gives little force but as the angle of heel increases ‘physics’ makes the keel contribution significant. The greater the keel length, the greater the effect. The combination of the hull buoyancy on the heeled side and the keel on the ‘windward’ side produces the force necessary to keep the yacht from capsize. If the keel of Bayesian was retracted it would lose a significant six meters of moment arm or leverage from its probable 200 tons of keel bulb. When we design yachts we calculate the stability, or righting lever, as a function of heeled ‘bouyancy’ force and the ballast moment arm combined. (the GZ) This can be plotted on a graph to show the stability at any heel angle and identifies the angle at which stability becomes negative causing the yacht to capsize. Normally an ocean yacht will experience a negative point at about 120 degrees of heel. With a lifting keel this point is greatly reduced maybe to less than 90 degrees. If Bayesian was at anchor with the keel raised and no sail up the crew would have every confidence that she could remain safe in most normal wind conditions. Every captain at this level has passed an exam on stability and would be aware of his vessels stability graph. Many years ago I sat at Cremorne and watched a spiralling williwaw race across Sydney harbour and pass through Mosman. This twister was only about 30 metres wide but it destroyed houses and overturned cars in its path. A few feet away nothing was harmed. The power of a twister is intense and powerful with the wind is coming from every direction. This was what hit Bayesian. The problem of large rigs is windage, even with no sails. But this yacht had three furling sails forward and a big boom with the weight of a furled mainsail inside all above the centre of gravity. Also there were a few communication domes on the spreaders. We use a wind pressure coefficient to measure the force of the wind on the rig and sails. Even without sails the WPC for Bayesian must have been pretty large when hit by a wind force of varying direction with a local velocity way above the norm. Once she was knocked down beyond her stability limit with the keel up she stood no chance and, laying flat to the water, her deck openings would have allowed a flood of water aboard and she would founder. This would happen in a couple of minutes. The observation of a lightning strike can be discounted because these vessels are grounded and any damage from a strike would have caused a slow sinking at worst - not a capsize and founder. The individuals within a professional crew with sailing experience may have sensed the wind and motion of the vessel and quickly reacted to instinctively save themselves in the seconds they had. My guess is that some were already on deck alarmed by the general conditions.The guests would have found themselves totally disoriented in flooding cabins, in darkness with the walls, doors and passageways at ninety degrees to the norm. They had practically no chance because it would be completely beyond their experience. The crew would have been unable to be of any help due to the speed of the unexpected event. I have been a professional yacht designer and builder for fifty years specialising in lifting keel yachts. My son, a professional navigator, was Third Officer on a ketch superyacht with masts 100m tall; a yacht so big, at 88metres, that it was almost beyond human handling even with the machinery on board. But of course it is the biggest and most expensive’ etc etc. What we have here is a one off accident which is a wake up call to an industry where common sense has departed as yachts get more silly in size and design. All forms of transport have had these one off events which have led to changes of regulations and professional practice. Townsend Thorenson, Boeing, 1955 Le Mans, the 1952 Farnborough crash, the 1979 Fastnet - all have made a difference and they all came unpredicted and out of the blue at a time of complacency. Chris Freer - yacht designer - August 2024

I’m not a sailor at all. However I find your info on the yacht sinking far more useful than any of the tv news.

Having sailed through a waterspout on a commercial cargo ship, I can attest that the amount of water in the air is incredible. Both bridge wing doors were shut and water was pouring through the edges of the doors, sufficient to flood the bridge with several inches of water. Water was also pouring in through the outer rim of the rotating clear view screens which were spinning at their highest speed. Only lasted a couple of minutes, if that, but the sheer amount of water cascading down on the ship would have caused problems if any of the hatches had been opened for ventilation or cleaning. This was on an 800 foot vessel, so one can only imagine the effects on a luxury yacht with the entire stern section effectively open for cooling. Incidentally the weather recording barometer recorded a huge pressure drop at the time the waterspout struck, well over 100 hectopascals or millibars. The pressure went back to normal once the ship passed through. This happened decades ago in the South Atlantic crossing through the Intra Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) where the weather systems from the northern and southern hemispheres meet and create spectacular storms.

What an awfully sad story. Thanks for presenting this in a sober and objective way.

When a sailboat decides to suddenly capsize, it’s fairly simple: if you happen to be outside on the deck, you’ll be thrown in the water and hopefully be safe; if you’re inside, napping in your cabin or taking a 💩, you have very little chance of getting out safely - especially in a large sailboat. Also on a sailboat, the captain is outside most of the time, which most likely explains why he survived. ESysman’s explanations around the mast and keel are 💯 spot on.

Kudos to the divers who have to work in such difficult conditions. And that's before they even begin their grim task.

Father and daughter!... so sad. RIP and condolences to the families.

The captain summed it up ... we didn't see it coming. Extreme and rapid weather changes have taken many a novice and many an expert .

I saw a piece about the lady with the baby. She said they went on deck to see what was going on and then she somehow ended up in the water. I don’t think anyone “abandoned” ship. They were just tossed around by the violent movement of the ship and the mayhem of the storm.

The best coverage of this story. That 2019 video was unbelievable. Thanks for sharing.

My Dad is a marine Engineer by trade, he reckons even though the sails where retracted when the waterspout hit the yacht the mast and boom acted like a sail and because the keel wasn’t in it’s extended position and due to the high centre of gravity it caused her to capsize and sink relatively quickly. He reckons if she went over on her side they would have had seconds to escape as the water would have entered through open spaces and hatches. These spouts are even more violent than land based tornadoes as they can spring from no where and disappear just as quickly

Thank you, as always for a very open and unbiased view of events that are still unfolding. Great video, keep it coming please.

I appreciate your continued tone of respect, and finely-curated presentations.

Excellent presentation. Actually the best coverage of this tragic incident. In the 70s, my first sailboat was a Catalina 22 with a swing keel. We always retraced the keel when at anchor because as the boat rocked, the keel would move side to side in the keel box and keep us awake. There is always some slight side to side play at the keel pivot. It was a small boat, and with the keel up, it made a noticeable difference in the stability of the boat that could be noticed just walking around in the cabin. However, one advantage of the swing keel is that we could leave the shallow marina that we were in during low tide. The keel up measured only 18 inches, while down the draft as 5 feet.

In the footage you showed with the red circle, the top light of what I assume is Bayesian's mast remains visible till the end of your clip. The camera has difficulty deciding whether to focus on the rain or the distant lghts and the rain is obscuring, but that light remains throughout, so I would not say the vessl disappeared.

Can we also appreciate how courageous the divers are ? They know there is no hope, yet they take risks to bring some closure for the families i assume

I saw a waterspout once in what I later learned is one of the hotspots for them, the waterfront in Lignano, north Adriatic. I was on the balcony of our 13th floor flat and I saw this graceful thing move towards the beach and whirl up umbrellas and chairs. It was one of the scariest things I have ever seen.

To me it makes sense that most of the survivors were crew. At that hour, most likely the guests would have been asleep or at least in their cabins out of the nasty weather and the crew would have been up and about, dealing with issues that the weather was affecting.

Respectfully done, thank you. Also let’s pray for the safety of the divers and crews making the recovery possible. 🙏🏼

I’ve always felt more comfortable on deck because it’s less claustrophobic. I don’t like feeling trapped when things get sketchy, it totally makes sense to me that people go to the deck because you can see what’s going on, gives you sense of control and you don’t feel trapped.

I was mesmerized when repeatedly watching your video of that cat and sailing yacht being hit by a water spout. That was shocking. Now I am thoroughly convinced of the damage they do in very warm water.

On survivability: at 50m depth, we are talking 6atm (6 * 14.7psi sea level pressure) pressure. so any air bubble that would have existed inside ship at time of sinking would be 6 times smaller once at 50metres. But has same amount of oxygen/nitrogen. Anyone surviving in such a situation would be bound with same diving limits and risk of nitrogen narcosis etc. Nitrogen absorbed by blood diminish volume of air bubble, and replacing O2 with CO2 as you exhale will eventually make that air bubble toxic.

What a helluva gruesome job these Divers volunteer to undertake my respect is unbounded

As a child, I saw how a recently landed waterspout snapped a thigh thick birch tree like a toothpick. And that waterspout was not even three feet wide at the bottom. Those are very dangerous.

The superyacht that rolled in the 2019 Westhaven video was the Encore.

I'm so sorry for the loss of life. Sending lots of love to the families and friends left behind.

Prayers for the divers safety and for their holding onto stoic sanguine bravery. May their hearts and minds not be harmed. 🙏

Great to hear your views on this, there is some real rubbish on the big channels about this .

@eSysmanSuoerYachts Just an added bit to the AIS Tracking data: In one interview of the captain of the Sir Robert who had picked up the survivors on the life raft with hiss tender, he said that they actually needed to start their engine on the Sir Robert and begin to motor in order to help hold their position during the worst of the storm.

As soon as I heard about the Bayesian sinking, I had to come to this channel.

I listened to a Royal Navy expert yesterday on Shipping accidents he said that they should have been moored in Port, especially after the radar warnings of those water spouts and as an EX dive instructor maximum bottom time on air would be 14 minutes max for recovering victims,Ps I live in Phuket and witnessed a Tsunami never underestimate Oceans they are the most unforgiving and powerful force on the Planet.

05:54 and what we also see here is how rapidly the yacht regains its vertical position after it had been pushed down flat to the surface, so what happened to Bayesian was really something extraordinary 😢

I suspect people are underestimating the volume of water required to cause a yacht of this size to sink. With a reserve buoyancy of around 700m3, to sink in 12 minutes implies a water inflow of around 60,000 litres per minute. Say somewhere between 1 and 2 domestic swimming pools. Per minute. Thats a huge quantity of water, and implies a monumental aperture.

That very tall mast was ridiculous....

Excellent background work without nonsense theories. Thank you.

Thoughts must go out to all the families involved in this tragedy. Really hope the survivors aren't forgotten and get all the support they need to get their lives back. Particularly the crew who don't have all that wealth and power to help them. The sinking itself is getting curiouser and curiouser . I simply cannot envisage any scenario where, even with all shell doors, W/T doors and deck hatches open, an intact hull this size could crossflood and founder within literally minutes. And yet the divers are reporting that the hull shell is largely intact. From a purely technical standpoint I'm glad that she was on an ensign flag because there are few investigators who are as thorough and professional as MIAB. AND their reports are all in the public domain. Can't wait to see their eventual findings.

It’s cruel of people to speculate and blame in this tragic rare freak weather related event. The crew more more than likely awake and the guests not, it’s brilliant that anyone survived. Thank you esysman you are my preferred reporter on marine vessels!

Just found your channel excellent thanks. Far better than the major News outlets very informative.

A waterspout (tornado) is much more turbulent and violent than a normal squall-front.

This channel appears to be VERY accurate and VERY professional, providing updates about boating mishaps within the shortest time imaginable!!! I will be a lifelong subscriber….. But moreover my thoughts are with those who are related with the casualties…. This is like a freak accident…….. I am sure no one aboard expected any danger whatsoever until the last moments…. They had no reason to think differently….

Hi there from the Italian Adriatic coast. I only sailed dinghies so no experience with these big boats but my dad did (and about 50 years ago got caught in a squall 50 miles south of Sicily, got dismasted and Rescued by fihing boats 2 days later). Some have commented that the lights on the boat went out when it was still upright and the masthead light (usually with auxiliary battery backup) was still visible so maybe the boat was already flooded by then -WHY? I was a competitive sport diver and what has not been explained to the general public is that 50 meters althoug not huge is already a sizable depth. There are plenty of professional divers that work far deeper like on pipelines and oil rigs (and in Sicily there used to be Corallari "coral poachers) BUT IN OPEN WATERS. The combined skillset of deep diving AND in constricted spaces is quite rare. Specialized diving equipment for diving deeper and longer tends to be more bulky so not suitable for squeezing through small openings or more specialized (personalized gas mixtures with helium rather than nitrogen), again usually used only by deep divers not trained to do rescue/recovery in shipwrecks and the same applies for saturation divers. Also bear in mind that 12 minutes total dive time at 50meter max with appropriate decompression stops at 9, 6 and 3 meters will put you in class F for the subsequent dive (for the uninitiated when you dive the decompression chart tells you how slow to come up to avoid the "bends" but you will not be "good as new", your body will still contain more desolved gasses than normal so you either have to wait longer between dives or spend more time coming up). Ciao from Italy

Smaller cruising monohull sailing boats are designed to be able to recover (right themselves) from a knock-down of more than 90° (some from as far as 160°). I don't know if it applies to such a large yacht. Barring a hole in the hull caused a bolt of lighting, the most likely reason for the boat to sink would be a 90° knock-down and the yacht being pinned in that precarious position by a combination of a strong wind and material shifting inside the yacht. Water could then ingress even from a companionway.

I've been checking for updates during break times throughout the day.....Eventually I thought, I'll just check eSysman when I get home..

I was on my summer holydays in Sant'Elia, next to Porticello. What left me surprised was that they lifted every boat that came in with a crane and put it in a dry dock. The cove was, exept for a few fishing boats, empty. If this kind of weather comes in regulary it makes sense, in hindsight.

Billionaires are nice people too....Deep down. My condolences to the chefs family

The first time I saw that video was last night on "Liberation Yachts" channel. Unreal! He also gave some very interesting insight on that style of Perini Navi

You are using the term “buoyancy” to describe the tendency of a vessel to resist heeling over. The correct term for the concept you are describing is “stability”.

She rolled over plain and simple, If the statement that the keel where not fully extended she had no chance in this kind of wind. We had a 90K cruise ship list over 48 degrees in the same type of weather. Brilliance of the Seas.

The woman with the baby actually stated in an interview that she and the tot were sleeping on deck that evening. Her and her partner both survived. Where people are confused is that Lynch's own wife stated in an interview that she was sleeping next to her husband when they were startled awake from the event. She managed to escape with her life and he did not. To me, this DOES seem supsicious but someone explained to me that perhaps Lynch went back to assist someone or even look for his daughter, which to me sets my mind at ease as explainable. But I think you've got the couples mixed up.

Very informative piece of work Chris. I have sailed in the Gulf of Lion and experienced the sight of waterspouts in the area and further south. Consider the effect of hot air from the Sahara mixing with cool air from the Alps, over a warm sea. If you have been hit with a Katabatic wind off the side of a mountain, you can appreciate just how powerful these systems can be. A waterspout is obviously much greater in power though short lived. That babies crying saved its life and that of the mothers.

The Aukland clip is very compelling. That waterspout laid that huge ship right down. If Baysian tipped over far enough to begin letting water into the interior that could quickly further destabilized the boat causing it to continue filling up and sink. There have been a few smaller sailing vessel disappearances. As a sailor last year I spent three months on a 42' (12m) catamaran sailing from Vietnam, up to Japan and across the Pacific to Canada. We were regularly in two to three meter seas, and occasionally in 4 meter seas. The edges of storms. One thing I found interesting was while we regularly had waves wash over the bow, and many over the raised cabin, we had very few big waves from behind. I think we bailed out the dinghy 2-3 times from being 'pooped.' I think most monohull sailboats could leave the companion way open for years with no consequences other than an occasional 'stuff got wet' experience. But a large enough wave could trigger a destabilization cascade that could rapidly lead to a sinking. As a sea kayaker I know from experience that even 10 to 15 cm of water in the cockpit (less than 1/3rd the length of the hull) is incredibly destabilizing until I get it out. Of course a kayak has no lowered or ballasted keel, but I think this exaggerated experience could happen to a sail boat or ship. (The container ship that disappeared in the Bahamas a few years ago with all crew lost. I think it's fatal event was becoming unstable until it rolled far enough to sink.) So a sailboat being flooded by a rare pooping wave at some point water inside the cabin will contribute to slipping under one one side, filling with more water and sinking. And likely if this does happen, it must be happening so fast the crew can't react, can't send out an SOS, the EPIRB never makes it out of the cabin. Disappearance with no trace. As I said waves from behind that might do this seem to be very rare. As is getting hit by a waterspout. What could've been open on Baysian? Maybe just the doors from the center/aft deck to the inside. A single cabin hatch or even several wouldn't be likely to do this. And I would expect that the keel was down if guests were feeling sea sick. It stabilizes. So to follow the example of the mathematician who examined returning Allied planes in WWII and then saying: these are the places returning planes are most likely to be hit by the enemy -- increase the armor in all the other places. Because it is strikes in those areas causing planes hit there to not return. In sailing accidents, what are the cabin flooding, laying down incidents that have flooded the cabin that sailors have reported? It's those problem a little worse that there are no reports because those are the boats that are never seen again. Likely Baysian will have little damage indicating what sank her.

What’s more important, especially as a Captain of a vessel? • Vessel safety and stability. • Passenger comfort. Passenger comfort should never be placed ahead of vessel safety and stability. This is just one of many possibilities and is not meant to place blame but will likely be looked at as a possibility.😢

🙋‍♂️ thanks🤗ESYSMAN For sharing your polite demeanor, explaining things for others to try help us 💚💚💚

To all sailors: watch the weather report regularly, several times a day. This is crucial on any kind of passage and especially on anchor.

My guess is that the key to this tragedy is indeed the swing keel, if it really was pulled up. Actually I'm quite surprised they have swing keels on sailing yachts of this size and with such a high mast. Seems risky.

Perini Navis such as this one do not have retractable keels but center boards which as described in this video swing up and down. They do improve stability when down but are primarily made to add lift when going upwind under sail. The stability requirements set by the red ensign group are to be respected when sailing with centre board up or down. In short the boat should be stable enough whether the board is up or down. That being said, while the minimum angle of vanishing stability will be above 90 degrees of heel. The minimum downflooding angle will be at 40 degrees. If any hatches or doors remained open as they were not considered to be at sea this can easily cause multiple compartments to get damaged at the same time. If the watertight doors were open as well (which is ok at anchor) , it could cause rapid flooding of most of the boat causing her to sink.

OK! Now we are talking of a swinging appendage. If it swing lengthwise it is called a "centerboard", likely un-ballasted and not detrimental to the balance of the boat, therefore it is kept up and stowed unless needed for directional effect under sail. If it is a lifting keel it is ballasted, usually with lead in the shape of a bulb at the end of a retractable fin, to augment the righting moment of the boat under sail and can be kept down at anchor to minimize rolling. In both cases I doubt very much that, for this size of yacht and the weight of the appendage, the design tolerances would allow for any significant play in the system.

The Bayesian keel being partially raised at anchor ⚓️ is apparently standard practice on this and other yachts, to facilitate a more comfortable motion. The Bayesian keel moves between a draft of 4 meters and 10 meters and is a fundament of why Perini Navi was established, to facilitate this design aspect, in order to not be denied entry and thus safety and convenience of marinas and harbours otherwise too shallow.

My views on why the crew, except one were rescued would be, that due to the storm, which apparently had been blowing for some hrs, the crew were summoned on deck, or from their cabins at least, by the captain. Engineer, first mate etc. would be needed to start the engines in the event that the yacht was dragging it's anchor, other crew members would be required to stow everything away to avoid breakages,,. I would suspect that they were "dumped" in the sea, or at least were in the by now flooded above deck parts of the yacht as it kneeled over.

Another possible reason to retract the keel at anchor: you want to minimize lateral water resistance when swaying to keep the bow towards the wind.

Robert Baden-Powell (1857-1941) was the visionary founder of the Boy Scouts

A cat has a lot more options for the wind to actually grab - even worse, there is space for the wind to catch under the deck to lift it. The mono in that video was unfortunate to have docked in the worst possible direction considering wind direction. If you're anchored then the wind will push you in a direction where the wind is not hitting the broad side unless you were foolish enough to put anchors at the front and at the back to avoid being moved. We could also see that that mono hull sailing ship righted itself again which is exactly what is to be expected. The video of the Bayesian from CCTV is most definitely due to poor visibility. You could see the top light not moving much. On the AIS data the Sir Robert Baden Powell moves a lot but it does not turn 180deg unlike the Bayesian. There are now further reports in and it is said that the entire catastrophe took about 12mins until the Bayesian sank. If it was indeed that long there is little to no explanation assuming proper procedures and seamanship for so many people being left under deck. Furthermore reports from the divers indicate no significant hull damage or even damage to windows or hatches. This raises the question: how is it possible that the ship took enough water to sink. I think it was Perini Navi themselves or reports from former crew members of their fleet stated that those 56m hulls should stay afloat with 2 compartments fully flooded. So how can so much water gush into that ship that prevents the crew from securing it, sealing of compartments to at least buy enough time to evacuate EVERYONE?` Considering the fact that no significant damage was reported by the divers this hints towards human failure.

In the video showing the mast in the storm, the mast remains upright the entire time. Focus on the brightest light at the top and the bottom. Those two lights don't move throughout the entire video. The video is only showing the increasing severity of the storm, not any movement of the boat. Whatever happened after this section of video.

You say about the two vessels looking similar (possibly dragging anchor) at (7:40), but they are actually quite different. If the view there is North up, the drag of the Sir Robert Baden Powell IS parallel to the Bayesian but where the S.R.B.P is heading SE with bow pointing INTO the wind, so PROBABLY dragging anchor, the Bayesian has turned and is travelling downwind also but POINTING DOWNWIND. Either it has recovered its anchor OR it has lost it (ie it has become detached). Given we are now told "it took 12 minutes to sink" and that the aft dinghy loading doorway was open is that how water entered? The waves astern will have been very high with the noted strength of wind. NB. Try watching at 0.25 speed (YT Settings) from (7:40)

As an aviator we face disaster in a similar fashion. Two things surface readily when this happens. Mother Nature is a force to be reckoned with, and fate is in gods hands. The disposition of all the occupants is a matter of fate. Much like mother nature shuffling a deck of cards. Great Video!

Thank you for the update. So sad - a tragic end for a "they lived happily ever after" group of people. Thoughts to all concerned including extended family and the crew including Chef's family. Apart from the clients, I hope the Captain and the crew receive the relevant help & support to recover from this, this will stay with them for a long time and I am sure they will be forever questioning themselves. It won't be long before the Captain & crew begin to be blamed, with questions being asked as to why they hadn't musterd guests etc.. The weather has been bad in the Med (as always), my daughter is Crew and they have had some near misses this season. The yachting community is a strong one, I hope they will rally around.

I suspect it had something to do with that absolutely gargantuan mast.

Great episode! Sincerest condolences to the family's and friends of all affected! ☹☹

Moral of the story is don't mess with Black rock and Vanguard HP major shareholders 😮😮😮

The video from New Zealand is enough to explain what's happened, I think. The sinking may well have to do with the keel being raised at anchor. Otherwise, maybe it would have righted after a knock down? The British investigation will almost certainly sort this out.

I can't help but think about that superstition of changing the name of a vessel.

Thanks for explaining why keel was up which makes sense, but sadly less stable for the boat in a storm event when anchored. Procedures might change now on other similar sailing super yachts at anchor.

Westhaven Marina is correct, it's between the central business district of Auckland and the Harbour Bridge.

A simple calculation with chatgtp results in the following. Assume windage 200m2, wind 160 kmh mast height 75m. Force 290370 N. Assume sailarea 2000m2 q what windforce results in same force on standing rigging. Answer 50kmh 27knots approx. Such a gust would mean the same as sailing in BFT 6 with the full sail plan. I.e. if this is possible at all I would presume not with the lifting keel in the up position. Hence extreme listing. Then, if you look at the hull shape, a 90 degree list icw the keel belast quite far to the stern could result in de yachts boancy to be compromised I.e. resulting in the yacht sinking from the stern. Off course under normal conditions the list reduces effective windage on a sailing yacht... but a tornado... anyway I'm not a yacht designer.

The point about the keel is critical here. If the keel was lifted, then that would explain why the yacht might not have self-righted. Such a tragic event.

Thank you for your thorough explanation of the AIS track which seems to bear out the account of the skipper of Sir RBP. I too dislike any form of speculation. The only opinion which really matters is that of those there. And, until such time as a report or enquiry delivers its conclusions, we should all take time to think of those who have lost loved ones, rather than posing conspiracy theories which drive people with nothing better to do, off on futile quests for their ‘truth’.

What can I say. Scout motto is "Be prepared".

In the video footage you can clearly see it repeatedly list to port and then go down from the hull it was filling with water causing it to literally sink from the top down into the water so something caused force enough holding it down into the water to fill the boat and sink it. I’m guessing either the mast pushed down from the microburst pressure and cause a hull breach or the keel caused a tear or hole or crack in the hull and caused it to fill with water it did not roll then flood through hatches open etc it clearly sank from an above force pushing it under water or flooding below surface sucking it down

Thank you for real journalism!

I know that was a pretty big boat but the mast looked awfully tall for that thing. I mean I have no real knowledge about sailing or boats in general but damn that thing was tall

Well i think one of the security measures must be in the future made is to have oxygen breathing devices in every room and maybe even more

Very interesting to see the first video clip where the large sailboat gets knocked down to about 75 or 80 degrees of heel. That's a great demonstration of what a powerful blast of wind can do and it doesn't take much imagination to see that the same thing could have happened to the Bayesian with its gigantic mast and the keel up.

Excellent reporting, thank you very much for your time.

Apparently the door was not properly sealed for the motor launch on the starboard side , this would explain the rapid inflow of water. They had time to have the ship ready for the storm , but for some reason werent fully on it.

Nature is a brutal force

The divers have tech wing BCDs with elastic cords-maybe OMS brand. They have a single tank-just compressed air-at 56 minutes for experienced divers with a long surface interval for 15 minutes bottom time (navy dive tables-not recreational). A single cylinder also means no deco dive. The surface interval is going to be long-2 dives a day maximum.

Twelve minutes is not a lot of time when trying to swim out from underneath a mammoth yacht. I'm so happy that baby made it out alive.... sorry for those who didn't make it. Life can be so cruel.

One detail from the AIS is that while both vessels were blown downwind, the surviving vessel was headed into the wind while the Bayesian turned so that it was headed downwind with its stern to the wind. That is odd. If it gained enough headway and then the anchor rode suddenly caught and snapped taut, it might have caused a severe capsizing moment that rolled the vessel toward an extreme heel angle. Think of how a rodeo cowboy takes down a calf during calf roping contest. The force would be due to the tension in the rode resulting in a parbuckling motion. The salvors of the Costa Concordia used parbuckling to right her.

So sad, but very interesting. Thanks.

Don't discount what a lightning strike can do, either. I am in Panama (where lighting is a daily occurence) and a strike on the mast will seek to get to ground (ie the ocean) and in the absence of a comprehensive grounding system (which is rarely fitted) the primary path is potentially through a thru-hull, blasting a major hole in the hull. Marinas in Panama are full of boats under repair, with various lighting induced damage.

Nonsense on the internet rarely gets to me and when it does it's never more than a mild annoyance. But this morning I found myself genuinely angry at the relentless onslaught of idiocy surrounding this tragedy. Mostly from people who have clearly never been on so much as a ferry, nevermind a yacht of any description. Most of them entirely disinterested in the actual human element and merely engaging as if it were entertainment. A pub game, whoever comes up with silliest theory gets a free pint. I was fuming. What is wrong with people?

as always appreciate your level headed non sensational reporting. Would certainly be helpful / educational to know if that keel weight up or down. Thank you for staying on this story.

*this is the go to channel for factual content*

You are doing a great job of presenting the information as it is available and in a very clear and compassionate manner. The inner ear is the part of the body that controls whether a person gets sea-sick or not. The people you mentioned were probably near the centerline of the ship on a lower level where there is less movement and therefore will affect the inner ear less. I am sorry to hear of any deaths at sea and hope that the recovery and identification process goes on rather quickly so that those remaining can have some solace.

Thank you for the professionalism.❤🙏from 🇨🇦

You know what eSysman your report is outstanding. This is the only time I found a tube with a picture of the last missing person Lynch's daughter Hannah anywhere on the web. The news does not seem to have any pics of her. Great job of getting the facts right. There is a lot of misinformation on the web and truly appreciate your channel.

What I don't understand is, the Baden Powell points its bow against the Wind (see 8:06). Possible the anchor is still down and dragging. Why is the Bayesian showing its stern to the wind. It looks, as if they are running before the wind. I have been in a similar, but less critical situation and tryed to escape the situation by pointing the bow against the wind.

Sincere condolences to all the families who lost their loved ones. Mother nature! Everything can happen at sea. Never take anything for granted. Prior to this did everybody have a emergency drill exercise?

I once stepped on the gunnel of a 20 foot sailboat, whose keel had fallen off. It might have capsized had it not been moored to the dock. It was as tippy as a canoe.

Wow only 12 min. that seems pretty fast for such a big yacht. I never would of thought something that big could flood so quickly. Wouldn't it need a large hole doorway or whatever to let so much water in and then there would need to be another hole to let the air out. Just seems ..... Incredible is all I can think of.