War in Ukraine 2024-10-01:Russia flanking Selydove. Russian forces struggling to keep up pressure 

Always welcome mate! That song has always stuck with me since I first heard it.

Slava Ukraini!

I am glad mate! Should give a better zoom in view. Still updating how much the cameras are zoomed in, so one does not miss the general situation in this sector, but still get the details.

It is important, even when it is good weather. It is difficult to assess when the bad weather season will come. Changes in the climate are pushing that later in the year. Last year it really came in November. It can of course come earlier this year. So 20-40 days from today would be a best guess. Too vague to draw any conclusions today.

Agree, this is a totally pointless war, that just brings suffering, we need to help Ukraine end it. If not, China will take a cue, and who knows where it will end. Ukraine will struggle this winter, it will very hard for the civilian population.

It is true, that the Ukrainian army is tired, with several units having had no rotation, as a unit, for years. Some of the newly mobilized have had poor training, as reported by Ukrainian commanders. What the casualty rates are among replacements I could not say. I have also seen interviews that they tend to become casualties quicker, but hard to extrapolate that into a general conclusion. The main problem Ukraine has, as I see it, is they have not trained replacements for long enough, probably because they simply have not had enough time. That comes down to lack of time, and lack of firepower, but will talk about that tomorrow. Regarding offensives during the rainy season. We can expect that fighting will continue, but if we are talking about offensives in the Western sense, neither side would aim for that. An offensive in the Western sense would be what Ukraine did at Kursk. Assemble forces, break through the front line, and exploit. That depends on speed. When it is rainy, or poor road conditions that becomes very hard. That does not exclude an offensive, but the conditions are poor for it. For Russia, which simply aims to exert pressure, with the aim of taking smaller terrain, weather plays a smaller role. But they still have to move forces forward and supply them, and that goes slower in poor weather. I expect the level of fight to decrease, from the weather, but probably also because both sides are running low on forces. I will do a strategic assessment, and hopefully that will explain what I assess are the problems, and what we can expect. But as always, be critical to all information, including mine.