Wargaming Russia's Military Options in Ukraine

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Stratfor examines six offensive military options that Russia could conduct in Ukraine.
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11 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 693

@jacondo2731 2 года назад

6 years later and we had an invasion , honestly this is just interesting even more so

@burkanarburky4447 2 года назад

Ukraine prepart themself for this.

@morleycross1980 Год назад

@@burkanarburky4447”prepart “😂

@AGS363 9 лет назад

Small side comment: If russia chooses to openly attack ukraine, they may also use their forces in belarus.

@Karifi 2 года назад

You are right

@blue_ivez2222 2 года назад

this comment has aged well

@blagoevski336 2 года назад

Welp you were right

@blue_ivez2222 2 года назад

Sure was lol

@lucutes2936 5 месяцев назад

isnt this obvious enough lmao

@raleigh9019 9 лет назад

Cool, but nearly impossible scenarios. Russia wants to minimize its efforts, full scale war is not an option because it would destroy them diplomatically.

@hansholland5718 9 лет назад

Well, the Thing is it's gone that far - there's no way back! He must continue - otherwise, it results in whether "The Hague" scenario for him (and his friends) or very serious riots in his empire; both he tries to aviod of, at any price! So, expect the unexpected!... ((

@hansholland5718 9 лет назад

Родерик Рандом What about your nano-technologies, my VERY NICE SMELLING russian friend? :DD PS Are you being paid per hour? Or is it "per word" case?

@raleigh9019 9 лет назад

Rather per BOLD word : >

@hansholland5718 9 лет назад

Piotr Błaszkiewicz I'd rather say per CAPITAL one! :D Or maybe a "CapsLock" button is simply... Unknown there !? Tell us, Родерик Рандом!

@marine4814 9 лет назад

Родерик Рандом anything smart can come out of your vacuumed cranium? guess not..

@thomaswright4489 Год назад

"High Resistance would be expected" Understatement of the decade from 7 years ago haha

@Vedioviswritingservice 8 лет назад

I vote for the land bridge. Makes the most sense strategically linking Russia with Crimea.

@ACMFORALL 2 года назад

Nice prediction.

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@ACMFORALL Well no. he was wrong. Russia also tried to take Kyiv and kharkiv. but failed. had they focused on only the land bridge. they might have had enough power to reach odesa. but they failed to take even Mykolaiv.

@blahbleh5671 Год назад

@@ACMFORALL It was obvious. As soon as Russia took crimea they started running into the problems you would expect from having only a bridge connection to the mainland. Imo the true ideal scenario for russia would have been to annex the whole of the east of Ukraine and leave a puppet in the west. But maybe not, since they did annex Kherson, perhaps they intended to annex the whole country.

@roberttaylor3594 2 года назад

And now, 7 years later, MAYBE the Crimea-black sea cost might be achievable. Maybe.

@editorials512 2 года назад

This aged well. Interesting that of STRATFOR's estimates, the southern axis of the Russian advance did fail to fulfill it's objective of reaching Transnistria, and the aforementioned eastern exposure discussed along the Kharkiv-Dniepro line both never came into fruition and equally suffered the same issues discussed in the video. Also interesting that STRATFOR's 'recommendation' of sorts was partially followed, with an attempt to seize the east bank of the Dnieper. The fact that Russia failed here really shows how their military strength has long been exaggerated - though understandably.

@S_Black Год назад

This is also based on Ukraine's 2014/15 performance in the east, which wasn't all that great. They have improved massively since then

@georgyzhukov6409 Год назад

Its only gunna get worse for ukraine. Russia already holds a fifth of the country and hundreds of thousands of more russians are coming. Its essentially Russia vs nato bc of all their billions of our tax payers dollars in advanced weapons and thousands of foreign fighters

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@BlahBlah-kb1wfHahahaha. No ruski bot. They could not. They could not even hold Kherson city.

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@BlahBlah-kb1wf Hahahaha. Bro are you dumb? Christ you are one heavy ruski bot.

@blahbleh5671 Год назад

@@BlahBlah-kb1wf For the so-called 2nd greatest military power on earth to be ground down to a bloody pulp like this by essentially an unheard-of military...... in this context, yes the Ukrainians have performed exceedingly well. RF could use nukes but will they? No. Stop coping with nuke hypotheticals, or rather, changing the goalposts when clearly they were talking about conventional military forces. You are a ruski bot like the other guy said, change your damn name I don't want to be associated with you.

@hemavathikumar9123 2 года назад

🙄The last part seems to be somewhat inline in what currently is happening. Dam computers are smart !

@klarion 9 лет назад

Your last scenario doesn't even take into account that the entire eastern part of Ukraine is populated with either ethnic Russians or culturally Russian people and any "insurgency" would be just as much of a minor footnote as it has been in Donetsk/Luganks. In fact, there would probably be a movement to join para-military pro-Russian units.

@appalachianmountain 2 года назад

this didn't age well.

@burkanarburky4447 2 года назад

no they didn´t do this.

@bittertronicus4144 8 лет назад

Stratfor you have forgot one ( and IMHO most possible ) scenario , the one where the situation around Donetsk and Crimea remains mostly as is while an aero-marine invasion is developed on Odesa and the surounding area , the city falls the same day due to the fact that is literally unprotected by heavy troops , and the next two days after some heavy reinforcements the Russians walk towards Hyperdneisteria (the separatist part of Moldova ) where they are waited as liberating heroes from the by 99% Russian speaking population ... So in 3 days they resolve the problem , they get what they want the most since all this has started - yes is the city of Odesa I am talking about , and they remain relatively well protected from all the strategically negative terrain for the invader since the occupation perimeter is a mere 80 miles ...

@burkanarburky4447 2 года назад

doesn´t work that way.

@n2201 Год назад

easier option is to blockade the sea. don't need to conquer Odessa

@blahbleh5671 Год назад

ye the whole 3 day thing didn't work out I guess, boy did they try though

@SaudiHaramco 9 лет назад

Why would Russia invade Ukraine north-west of Kharkiv? In Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mariupol etc. Russia might have a lot of support from the population. In Poltava and west of it though most people hate Russia at the moment.

@kashmirha 4 года назад

They explained it: because it would give Russia a river border towards west which is more defendable. And they gave the least probability to that scenario.

@blagoevski336 2 года назад

Lol

@SaudiHaramco 2 года назад

@@blagoevski336 lol Putin should have listened to me 7 years ago

@blagoevski336 2 года назад

@@SaudiHaramco kek true

@altaimountain 9 лет назад

Of course, militarily Russia can take over the whole Ukraine if they choose so, but there is no reason for Russia to do any of those actions. Ukraine will split itself peacefully or not, but Russia won't need to invade it.

@LucaEnzo 9 лет назад

Analysis shows Russian hardware, not supplied to Ukraine previously, operating inside of the country. Id call this an invasion

@altaimountain 9 лет назад

LucaEnzo Using your logic I can say the US and a bunch of other Western countries invaded Ukraine from the West.

@LucaEnzo 9 лет назад

If you insist on using my logic then where are the western made tanks in the east? And if you want to escalate this matter then lets talk about a piece of Ukraine being forcibly annexed.

@altaimountain 9 лет назад

LucaEnzo Instead of going down that silly road (btw Ukrainian government just announced it will spend a large chunk of IMF money on buying Western arms) I'd pose a couple of simple questions. If Ukraine is invaded by Russia, then why didn't Ukrainian government renounce the Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership agreement with Russia? Why does Ukraine buy gas from Russia? Why does Ukraine supply electricity to Crimea? Why didn't Ukraine file a charge against Russia in the ICJ or UN or any other international organization for annexing Crimea? How come Poroshenko has a thriving chocolate factory in Russia? How come a 20 000 strong Ukrainian military base in Crimea did not put up a fight and instead a whole bunch of Ukrainian soldiers switched sides and joined the Russian army in Crimea? Don't rush, just reflect on it for a while, please.

@user-qf1pf4fj7e 9 лет назад

LucaEnzo Soviet-made tanks many in Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and .... This weapon secretly supplied to Ukraine

@RandomVideos2 9 лет назад

I wonder what country Russia will invade next after this? Maybe referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk, Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia over the next few years making them all officially Russian territory then build them up with offensive missiles and advanced air defenses. Then weaken the nearby countries through economic warfare, threats, hacking, sabotage, etc. Next immigrate Russian speakers and concentrate them in border areas to start new breakaway regions where Russia must "protect Russian speakers." Continue this process until the Russian Federation reaches the German and Iranian borders.

@RandomVideos2 9 лет назад

ryelor123 A massive increase in shale gas and oil, nuclear, coal, undersea oil and other alternative energy to cut off Russian exports to Europe. An economic blockade of this sort would decimate the Russian economy. Even China could not offset this if they bought as much oil and gas as possible. The Russian economy is so dependent on Oil and Gas exports to Europe it could be destroyed by cutting them off. Unfortunately, Europe is too addicted to this cheap blood gas and they will continue to fund the Russian war machine until their borders and security are completely compromised. Next we must find a way to stop the coming Chinese "Island Hopping Campaign" where they will take over every island in the South China Sea one by one. The Battle of the Paracel Islands will be repeated on many more islands. They have already made this clear with the "nine dotted line" claim, ADIZs and other claims. Next they will use their economic and military power to force the countries bordering the sea to sign a pact similar to the Montreux Convention in the Black Sea. This will ban most foreign warships from entering the sea and give China compete control of South Asia.

@Soulcatcher30 9 лет назад

ryelor123 You don't know much about Baltics I see....

@R3dp055um 9 лет назад

Random Videos My my my, that is a very paranoid scenario. Ask yourself this, how many nations has China invaded or attacked in the last 50 years? How many nations has Russia invaded or attacked in the last 50 years? The answer to both those questions would be 2 or 3, at the most liberal interpretation of the question. Now, how many nations has the USA invaded or attacked in the last 50 years? The answer to this third question would be more than a dozen. So who is, logically, the greater threat to peace?

@RandomVideos2 9 лет назад

R3dp055um Doesn't really matter to me who's "the biggest threat." I'm not some USA fanatic who thinks America is perfect. I just like to observe the flashpoints in the world and the very aggressive actions of certain states over the past few years. Sure, the island hopping scenario I wrote about might never happen but The Battle of the Paracel Islands certainly did. China has similar claims on many more islands and I don't think it's out of the question that they could repeat that considering the steps they have taken lately like the new ADIZ that covers the Senkaku.

@R3dp055um 9 лет назад

Random Videos Glad to hear you're not blind. I was referring to your speculations about Ukraine, not trying to defend Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. The Paracels are arguably within China's 200-klick EEC. The Spratlys, however, are twice that distance from Hainan, and Chinese claims are based entirely upon alleged "historical" possession, which is blatant steer manure, I agree.

@ZlobitkoRostak-hp1en Год назад

7 years later, we’re more or less at Luhansk + Crimean landbridge scenario. I wonder why the Ukraine fortifications and minefields were not sufficiently prepared.

@roseforeuropa 2 года назад

Only OG geostrategy nerds know about this video.

@alexeyshierman5023 6 лет назад

One important point is that all this eastern region is full of Russians and Russians Speakers not mentioned in this Video

@binder946 2 года назад

It's not in thier agenda.

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@binder946 Because as you can see it doesnt matter.

@imoneixusa9742 2 года назад

*Putin was here Decided to combine 2 of the scenarios, take all of Southern Ukraine cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea, and take everything east of the river, claiming a 20-mile buffer zone on the West Bank of the river, keeping Russian forces stationed on the East Bank but having a no-man's-land in between Ukraine and the river with high-power artillery on the east of the river that will stop any attempted River Crossing by the ukrainians in that 20 mile wide buffer zone

@christopherwang4392 Год назад

1:11 to 1:28 In hindsight, Option #2 with a limited offensive capturing Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts would have been the most logistically feasible option for Russia.

@NadirAgha Год назад

But it was never about Donetsk and Luhansk anyway. It was always about Crimea, where Russian Black Sea Fleet is based and a land-route from mainland-Russia to Crimea. The rest is secondary. The main target for Russia in this war is to secure Crimea and the land-route to Crimea in southern Ukraine, build defensive fortifications, achieve stalemate, and keep what it has. So that, if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will control its Black Sea access. The same goes for Russia's invasion of Georgia. Why did Russia occupy Abkhasia, but not, for example Adjara. Both regions have access to Black Sea, but Abkhasia's coast is suitable for navy ports, however Adjara's coastline and sea levels are not suitable for navy ships, so it's useless for Russia. So that, if Georgia joins NATO, Russia will control its Black Sea access.

@21boxhead 2 года назад

THIS DIDN'T AGE WELL

@joeswanson5486 2 года назад

8 years ago Ukraine would been rolled over by Russian forces now Ukraine is much much stronger with a large army and 10s of billions in western aid

@mikebertram5219 3 года назад

Man this better not fuck my plans to visit Chernobyl.

@IVAN-zm8pz 9 лет назад

lol im laughing my ass off here watching how they make Russia invading Ukraine such a big deal of strategy. if Russia declared war on Ukraine, i bet not a single Ukrainian would show up for the fight! they would just be like " Fuck it, Take it, you win.

@empirum 9 лет назад

Which explains why there's so many Ukrainians currently fighting Russian tourists, right? Besides an invasion of Ukraine is a death sentence.

@DinaricWolf 9 лет назад

Though Russia is militarily capable of annexing all of Ukraine it is unlikely and very dangerous to do that. One obvious problem is the West. You think that the United States and other western powers will just sit there and let Russia take control all of Eastern Europe?

@StelzCat 9 лет назад

Barrows0re they will. They desperately need a reason to justify their policies and violations of human rights they are hiding ever so carefully and they won't miss any opportunity.

@Burkutace27 9 лет назад

Never underestimate the fighting spirit of people who's country is being invaded.

@noahbrooks8939 9 лет назад

Ilya Demochkin you obviously have no knowledge of the History of Ukraine. they are already showing up. Azov battalion will make omelets out of their balls if they take one step towards Mariupol

@rickyjulian2499 9 лет назад

Incredibly childish video

@Burkutace27 9 лет назад

My irony meter just blew.

@br0leg274 2 года назад

Aged well

@voyageurastral 2 года назад

They did all of the option above

@IC1101 9 лет назад

Those scenarios require Russia to start a full blown war with Ukraine and that would involve NATO countries. No way Russia will invade whole of Eastern Ukraine. That would be done only out of desperation and anger if Russian economy starts to really suffer.

@LucaEnzo 9 лет назад

The feckless European powers wouldnt even stop a genocide on their doorstep in the 90s by Milosovics' henchmen. To be honest i dont belive these countries are even concidering the possibility of a Russian agression, despite her previous record

@RandomVideos2 9 лет назад

Ukraine is not a member of NATO and NATO has no obligation to protect it. I highly doubt NATO is gonna enter WW3 to save Ukraine when a good bit of it is already gone anyway and they've already spent billions to try and save it.

@artpoirot9574 9 лет назад

That's what they told the Georgians in 08!

@Davis_237 9 лет назад

***** NATO is not going to war over Ukraine, not unless we take the first step on our own. No it would however force NATO to step up its presence in the Baltic states, Poland in particular, in an effort to block further Russian expansion east. And again, if NATO doesn't, we (America) certainly will...

@Sergeyspb2009 9 лет назад

Epic example biased by a primitive-surface analysis, probably having to justify catastrophic failures of American advisers working in Ukraine. But justification of American incompetence is made absurd method by ignoring the social facts of mass social approval and mass social support any actions of the Russia in the regions of South-Eastern and Eastern Ukraine. This clumsy attempt of justification proves the fact of U.S. direct participation. The authors try trite to deceive ourselves by ignoring the fact of the predominance of the number of supporters of Russia in South-Eastern population. also to forgotten the fact as Catherine II did accommodation Russian troops in the Crimea during the recognition of the independence of the United States (not now). Only western Ukrainians are more anti-Russian sentiments.

@omarmartimez680 Год назад

That's is the correct way make two Ukraine west and east

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@BlahBlah-kb1wfLads, this is the imperialistic russian brain at work. " ahh just by force split a sovereign nation into 2" No lad. It is not reasonable. And its exactly why Ukraine wants to join Nato, because you morons somehow think you are still the soviet union. Try being better neighbours next time. Alot fewer russians would be in our red light districts sucking on western dicks.

@br0leg274 10 месяцев назад

@@RK-cj4ocnot the first time in history when war doesn’t end: Vietnam was splittet and Korea too

@cyka7705 2 года назад

what the fuck

@BlackLabelExpat 9 лет назад

I think the most likely case is Russia taking the southern coast because it makes for a well defensible position but also a low ratio of political blow back from NATO/ USA. If they do try and "recover" land, you can bet they will ask themselves the question how much can we wager without the United States getting too involved. Russia was not hit by the 2008 finance crisis the same way the EU was, and now they are not united politically. My guess is that Russia knows it in be better position to make this kind of maneuver now than it will be as time goes on. Matter of fact it will probably only be harder as time goes on.

@voyageurastral 2 года назад

Do you think sanction against Russia are working ? Interesting comments to see 6 years later

@weiyuchen5601 2 года назад

Prophetic

@gusar190 2 года назад

Hello from crazy 2022!

@afewgoodcollemenmovers8580 2 года назад

Who is finding this in 2022?

@习近平-r5q 2 года назад

@stanislavpapushak5562 2 года назад

I'm from 2035

@JoesWebPresence 9 лет назад

Option 2. Directly resulting from the failure of the next Kiev offensive. pushed from Donetsk and Lugansk districts entirely. Then the people of the area will have drawn the maps. Full autonomy within Ukraine or full independence. It matters not. Either way Kiev will never have authority there again.

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

Kyiv* Filthy terrorist.

@JoesWebPresence Год назад

Lol @@RK-cj4oc !

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@JoesWebPresence Sorry mate. icannot hear you over the sound of many dead ruskis.

@JoesWebPresence Год назад

That's OK RK, they have plenty more. I wonder how many Fighting age Ukrainians are left, or how many majority Russian regions it has left to lose . . . 3? . . . . . Maybe Kiev thinks it can take these regions back, and continue the anti-Russian pogrom they were conducting there since 2014, or perhaps it just wants to nuke its own country now. Judging by the recent number of sackings for corruption, maybe they just want to sell them off to the highest bidder. Hey! Maybe a few dozen second hand MBT's will turn it all around for them, or prehaps those sanctions will finally start to bite! : D

@velikizmaj8897 Год назад

Perhaps an attack from Belarus on Lviv and towards the border with Hungary would have been better, without mercy towards the infrastructure, civilians, army, roads, and that would have cut off the connection with the west and forced Kiev to surrender.

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

Kinda weird how you spell Lviv correctly with the changed name, but then spell Kyiv as Kiev.

@blahbleh5671 Год назад

I've always found it strange how Russia didn't choose to open up a front from the western side of Ukraine!

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@blahbleh5671 Incapable of doing so. Russia could not even maintain a full front while doing offensives in the early war. Kharkiv happend because of it.

@blahbleh5671 Год назад

@@RK-cj4oc In the initial advance though, maybe they could have occupied Lviv. Then again, they may have thought the roads were in too poor of a condition to support their forces, or they simply thought capturing Kyiv takes priority and would render any other advances moot as the organisational structure of Ukr military forces would collapse.

@velikizmaj8897 Год назад

@@blahbleh5671 They were counting on Soviet feelings and the past. The Russians thought that the people would take to the streets and be like in Crimea. That's why they had as deep as possible penetrations into the territory of Ukraine to reach as many cities as possible. However, they did not properly calculate the mood of the people and the military, which would have happened in 2014 if they had done so. When they started guarding soldiers around civilian targets, they began to make mistakes at the front. In my opinion, a brutal and massive breakthrough into the west of Ukraine without mercy for civilians, infrastructure and the military would end the conflict in 3 to 6 months.

@rjc071 9 лет назад

I have to admit that this is some of the best Nazi propaganda I have seen since reading Beckhough's memoirs: you Fascists at Stratfor really have a knack for being able to spout shit while having your heads up your colleague's asses. No one wonder there is a toilet paper shortage in North America. Truly, incredible.

@MrTangolizard 9 лет назад

Toilet paper shortage ? I would say it's russia that's going to have shortages of things soon also if any country is like a nazi country it's russia no free press disabled and gays put in prison annex country's who's the nazi ?

@rht785 9 лет назад

***** russia is a dictatorship the united states is becoming a police state.

@Oddme100 9 лет назад

***** North-Korea is like the Nazis. Their political prison camps truly does resemble some of the Nazi camps fro, WW2. Yet, North-Korea and Russia is getting friendly, and Putin and Kim Jong-Un will celebrate the WW2 victory together this year. Ironic, isn't it?

@grisanea29 9 лет назад

rjc071 Are you member of Putlers propaganda? They accuse everybody of nazism in Georgia in Ukraine in Moldova In Chechen Republik. The only Nazi here are Russians. They attack they kill people.

@shtakett 9 лет назад

grisanea29 ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-whZXi2XRPN0.html

@goldman6506 2 года назад

Funniest comment section of all time

@OmarMartinez-mm7db 2 года назад

Now you got the right map east and west ukrania. Looks wonderful

@MrDavePed 6 лет назад

National boundaries which use river ways are never completely stable. They divide a single culture and cause contention where the natural inclination is cooperation. Far far better to use the watersheds to delineate between natural cultural, demographic and topographic basins which serve best to define national identity. Militarily the naturally low population high elevation watersheds provide good ground to make a defensive stand. ..

@stitch9985 9 лет назад

Taking eastern Ukraine would (if done succesfully) end the civil war and make it possib;le for Ukraine to join the EU. The reason that Russia wants to destabilize the Ukraine is because it doesn't want them to join the european uinion. Best course of action for russia would be to KEEP the area destabilized. (i'd rather see the war end personally)

@liamfarhan5168 2 года назад

👍🏼👍🏼

@SH-lb1nu 2 года назад

It seems that this is the goal all a long. A globo homo western independent Ukraine and Eastern ethnically Russian Novo Russia.

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@SH-lb1nu Get drafted. your russia failed to take this "globo homo" Ukraine./

@PearlDpUa Год назад

@@SH-lb1nu we are not "ethnically Russian", there is no even such thing as "Russian nation" because their state are federation and include Chechens and Buryatia. At the 2001 Ukrainian National Census, the ethnic groups within the Donetsk Oblast were: Ukrainians - 2,744,100 (56.9%), Russians - 1,844,400 (38.2%), Pontic Greeks - 77,500 (1.6%), Belarusians - 44,500 (0.9%), others (2.3%).[10] And even if that comment doesn't be a lie, there is don't give any right for some kind of federation slave us or kill.

@andygass9096 8 месяцев назад

Pretty good, stood the test of time!

@JCRF 9 лет назад

Great video, seems to be in order of most likely to least likely too. Well done

@Strettger Год назад

What would your opinion be now that its happened?

@jonnyrawket8158 5 лет назад

Who's watching this in 2019 during the opening stages of the Russo-American War?

@helpiamstuckonthismanshead3385 4 года назад

Nope

@rodrigocastillo110 2 года назад

Jesus this was accurate!

@republicempire446 Год назад

Only it was considered most probable approaches but it goes down to preparations, element of surprise, and coordination to maintain logistics

@hylandhistories4140 4 месяца назад

It's kind of interesting that the course of the war has been the inverse of this video Once the decapitation strike it became a race to take the Dnieper After that failed a further retreat from Kharkiv was forced Followed by losing ground across the lower Dnieper, making g wholesale annexation of the southern coast impossible and relegating themselves to the land bridge Finally, Recently Russia has started probing along the whole border to weaken Ukranian concentration.

@danielefabbro822 2 года назад

Indeed the Dnepr could be a significant and good position where to stop Russians if they try to take the entire country. From that point, once the Russians loses the initiative in combat, it would be easy to counterattack and retake the country.

@mr.afrikaans1747 2 года назад

LOL ‘easy’.

@kshitijkumar9094 2 года назад

Yeah man... I don't think that'll work for Ukraine, once they lose the eastern half they won't get it back

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@kshitijkumar9094 Well good thing then that russia was too weak to take it in the first place.

@kshitijkumar9094 Год назад

@@RK-cj4oc good or bad would be a whole other debate but the fact of matter is Russia indeed turned out unable to take it, but the war is still going on who knows what will happen next

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@kshitijkumar9094 Good or bad is not a debate. its good that the filthy ruskis did not manage to take it. the end. The war is stil lgoing on but Russia will not be able to take half of ukraine anymore. rest of Donbass is their best possibility left.

@wintaaaaa 2 года назад

Ok well, looks like the first 3 were achieved at the same time, but the last 2 haven't

@Skydive20991 2 года назад

Really interesting how the option about the Dombass region actually happened in real life, not with an explicit invasion but with the recognition of a puppet Republic. The most credible action that Russia can make now, believing to the continuing invasion, is the plan explained at 3:15 : atm a major scale invasion like others or the blockade of the Black Sea coastline cutting off Ukraine for me are just too extreme

@skyguy1236 2 года назад

wow, this aged well

@Skydive20991 2 года назад

@@skyguy1236 like milk hahaha 🤣

@voyageurastral 2 года назад

They tried for odessa but failed, its like they watched this video couple of time to try every options

@guddu6424 Год назад

How, you are predicted 😮😮😮?

@binder946 2 года назад

Well this aged well.

@user-qb8fp8oj1p 2 года назад

Prophecy

@republicempire446 Год назад

Not prophecies, concidences

@planetsec9 Год назад

Not even STRATFOR expected Putin's blunder in Kyiv lol

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@BlahBlah-kb1wfGo away ruski bot. Losing several thousand men and supplies to random Ukrainian militias while dying in Kyiv is never a " good strategy" and also didnt work. Russia failed at Kharkiv, failed at Mykolaiv, and any landings at Odessa also could not go through. So much for a " succesfull" distraction.

@alikuk6334 Год назад

@@RK-cj4oc ah yeah, ukrocopium

@procopiusaugustus6231 2 года назад

The Russians would have been better off if they had taken this approach first.

@fakename1545 9 лет назад

Troop movements in Belgorod and terrorism in Kharkiv. Ongoing construction of a third line of defence outside of Kharkiv. Probing attacks all over the northern front, with Mariupol receiving less attention. Option five has some very good indicators. Something is planned for Kharkiv, whether or not the planning comes to anything. The territory is excellent for an armored defence--Kharkiv-Dnepropetrovsk line isn't weak, it's fine. An open field and a river are the same to tanks when it comes to engaging at range from prepared positions. Not the same same, but close enough. Western flank covered by the Dnieper, Kharkiv-Dnepropetrovsk is perfectly defensible. Though I wouldn't rule out a limited expansion into the Kharkiv area and down the M03 towards Artemivs'k . The H20 is densely urban and would probably be incorporated into that. You could do this one without increasing Russian troop involvement too significantly, it wouldn't extend the line too much (can't measure but it seems like maybe an extra 30% tops,) but it would straighten it and give Russia control over what looks like most of the urban sprawl in the East (assuming they take Mariupol and the rest of Donetsk/Luhansk.) With Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol you can freeze the conflict and start whipping around propaganda about re-unification for a while before taking the entire east. Little bit of lebensraum there, without tipping the hand too early.

@blahbleh5671 Год назад

And today the Belgorods peoples republic is about to be born, how times change!!

@18vladz 8 лет назад

Russia really would invade Ukraine like what he said..i am no military expert, but here is what i think..if EVER Russia move against Ukraine( OWN PEOPLE for 300 years even before the the creation of the USSR) this operation excluding or including the WHOLE SEPARATIST army of Donetsk, i would not simply use RUSSIAN lands as platform of Operation i would USE the same tactic's i used in WW2 and use the entire BELARUS country to move against UKRAINE and invade KIEV because imply moving an entire PLAN OF war is not simply attacking to claim more LAND they have that already, but to MOVE against the complete destruction of the OPPOSING forces which is currently HEADED by KIEV so why do any of these SCENARIO even been taken consider..that is if RUSSIA is stupid enough to do THIS in which event most likely not ever gonna happen... oh WEST powers why do you want such a WW3 event...economy down

@voyageurastral 2 года назад

You are a good strategist, they did passed by belarus to push to kiev but it failed.

@choadatiostoad415 9 лет назад

Krem ( Crimea ) is part of Russia not Ukraine. It was illegally given to them by the Ukrainian born Soviet premier Khrushchev. Its been part of Russia for hundreds of years.

@DavidJGillCA 8 лет назад

That may be true in a sense, but many territories in the world have multiple legitimate claimants so that is hardly sufficient justification. The problem with Russian annexation of Crimea is how they did it not that they have no legitimate claim to it.

@cianakril 7 лет назад

Russia took Crimea in a matter of hours without a single shot fired with 2/3 of the Ukrainian military in Crimea joining the Russian ranks and the rest 1/3 was basically dismissed like it belonged to Russia anyways, like you know, "take your belongings and go home, and don't forget your spathiphyllum". The only "problem" I see with "how they did" is that it was the most cleanest, swift and bloodless takeover in the world history. And yeah, the most surprising despite being the most obvious and declared beforehand.

@user-yv2vz5mb7t Год назад

Good video, now do predicton how Ukraine will invade Russia.

@adamradziwill 3 года назад

Mосковская империя должна распасться т к смысла в ее существовании нет. Нынешняя элита Неспособна на Реформы, общество неспособно на революцию, поэтому будет продолжаться гниение, которое закончится распадом, т к и затяжное гниение тоже всех утомит. Сегодня московская імперія занимает первое место в мире: ■ по уровню умышленных убийств; ■ по числу курящих детей и подростков; ■ по числу взяток при поступлении в вузы; ■ по темпам роста табакокурения; ■ по аварийности на дорогах; ■ по смертности от самоубийств среди подростков 15-19 лет; ■ по абсолютной величине убыли населения; ■ по количеству самоубийств среди пожилых людей; ■ по числу разводов и количеству детей, рожденных вне брака; ■ по числу детей, брошенных родителями; ■ по смертности от заболеваний сердечно-сосудистой системы; ■ по числу пациентов с заболеваниями психики; ■ по объемам торговли людьми; ■ по количеству абортов и материнской смертности; ■ по объёму потребления героина; ■ по потреблению спирта и спиртосодержащей продукции; ■ по продажам крепкого алкоголя; ■ по темпам прироста ВИЧ-инфицированных; ■ по количеству авиакатастроф (в 13 раз больше среднемирового уровня); ■ по числу миллиардеров, преследуемых правоохранительными органами; With cost of “black gold” at 15-23 dollars per barrel, the USSR economy collapsed, and the sovok itself collapsed, and the "golden" horde ("russia") budget can only be fulfilled only with oil price at $ 42.4 and higher

@klarion 9 лет назад

Let's put it this way.... the way the Ukrainian army fights (and considering it's sorry state), none of the issues you raise are of any serious consequence to the Russian military at this point.

@majdibouzidi 2 года назад

You're totally correct .. An invasion will never happen

@klarion 2 года назад

@@majdibouzidi I was totally wrong in that I didn't think something like this would happen in the near decade at the least, but I underestimated our western strategists and how ready Russia was to demilitarize Ukraine.

@br0leg274 2 года назад

@@klarion 7 years ago you was right. But In that 7 years they build up an strong military with modern technology and tactics. But i guess without that support it would be over already

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@br0leg274 Without support it would not be over. during the crucial first few months all the units which received western aid were all in Donbass.meanwhile russia also failed in Kharkiv. Kyiv, and Mykolaiv. Without western support Russia would still have failed there. Only in Donbass would they have done better.

@br0leg274 Год назад

@@RK-cj4oc don’t know which information you gathered from but here in the EU it’s clearly said that 70-80% of the Ukraine material is now western. You can also see that in the pro Russian Telega… . They only destroy bushmasters, humvees and other western APC and IFV. The Austrian Highcom is saying that the Ukraine army is now in the 3th set up with the delivery. FYI: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-54daqNraMxE.html

@Djura1 6 месяцев назад

Этому видео точно 8 лет?) Они всё знали?

@GavinEngel 9 лет назад

My 2 cents... I don't believe Russia will do any of these options. The rebels with subtle Russian support seems to be unbeatable--they are too nimble. I don't think Putin will lose patience with watching Russian-speaking rebels slowly winning at relatively little cost. He's too smart to end a good thing when he sees it. At some point the rebellion will achieve its goals of a breakaway nation, and the rebels might want to settle down ... things might change then if Putin thinks he can quickly rile them up again for a final rush to Moldova.

@kshitijkumar9094 2 года назад

Well...

@adamradziwill 3 года назад

With cost of “black gold” at 15-23 dollars per barrel, the USSR economy collapsed, and the sovok itself collapsed, and the "golden" horde ("russia") budget can only be fulfilled only with oil price at $ 42.4 and higher

@fiatlux4058 2 года назад

87$ for brent and gas high as f&#k. No one can stop Russia now

@sergeimartynov7355 9 лет назад

How about sending a few old jets to the rebels ? Russia hasn't done that yet, not even helicopters...

@aksmex2576 8 лет назад

So why did this not happen?

@karloperkovic6710 8 лет назад

The limited scenario did happen, the one where they expand Lughansk and Donetzk republic's control

@aksmex2576 8 лет назад

Prkissymo WhyDoIHaveToFillThisShit They were saying ti like 100% we are going to see an invasion, just some stupid propaganda

@TheGoodChap 8 лет назад

Watch their other video wargaming scenario planning Ukraine Russia. They explicitly state that military wargaming is an excercize in determining the capabilities of a country in carrying out logical military scenarios. It's a way of figuring out what they could do, but you have to understand that the entire time you're watching the video, because once they start thinking about it it sounds very matter of fact, as if it's going to really happen when that's not the case at all.

@antoniom1352 10 месяцев назад

You were right about Russia's plan.

@hamblepoint 9 лет назад

Give it another 18 months (from March2015) and the majority of Ukrainian citizens will perform another Maiden to rid the country of the fascist oligarchs and opt for option 3

@azizjanem418 2 года назад

Everyone know half Ukraine is Russian ethnic speaker

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

And that does not change anything.

@barreloffun10 Год назад

Russian-speaking Ukrainians are still Ukrainians.

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

@@BlahBlah-kb1wf Begone ruski bot. If they ever were the same people they now no longer think so. No, the US did not demand militairy infrastructure. Ukraine as a sovereign country is allowed to join amy defensive militairy alliance, the end. If you cannot understand that, its because your rotted russian brain is too far gone from propaganda. At work we have 4 ukrainian refugees. 2 from Zaprorizia, 1 from Odesa, 1 from Sumy. All of them think of themselves as only Ukrainian. All of them hate Russia, and none of them will speak the russian language anymore. And when this war is over all of them will return to their husbands fighting against their russian enemies, after we, their western brothers shelterd them from your brutal and undeserved war and they will be our allies, our blood, our family. And you will be alone with that Dictator in Minsk. If they ever were russian, Putin made sure they no longer are.

@barreloffun10 Год назад

@@BlahBlah-kb1wf 🤡

@Samsv1 9 лет назад

This is only worth considering under the current dynamics of the political situation. Russia's military option would be as swift as the taking of Crimea, at the cost of a changing political situation, at this point you won't be analyzing Ukraine.

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

Hashahhaaha. so you were wronggggg. it was not swift as taking Crimea. hahahaha Slava ukrainia.

@Samsv1 Год назад

@@RK-cj4oc It's apparent that Ukraine has fought off Russian ideas of Ukraine being a part of the Russian Federation. You could expect that the mustering of forces on the front line of a conflict like this with a superpower would be a difficult idea in of itself to really take hold. Why it is at the whims of the political situation. Which is still true, Russian leaning areas near Russia are on that side of the line right now. I can only imagine how neighbors can deal with one another, but you're related, and many fights of relation turn out amicably, others not at all. I understand though it would likely be difficult with future economic situations, proximity, and issues of ground control in peace or war it's probably for the best they be completely expelled due to animosity and the senseless flag violations over God knows what it amounts to.

@ddcgjrii4972 2 года назад

What I’m the world

@rht785 9 лет назад

i think its too late for russia to do that it was feasible at the beginning of the conflict.

@blue_ivez2222 2 года назад

unless of course, they invade again oh well, still not feasible apparently lol

@bandelebid Год назад

Has anyone acknowledged that you were correct?

@blahbleh5671 Год назад

I guess this was all very predictable. After all, geography does not change.

@piggy8761 8 месяцев назад

All the comments from years ago…wow

@JohnOh0701 9 лет назад

I'd say we should position a carrier battle group in the Black Sea, and allow the german to launch second operation Barbarossa.

@ArmaniFlyHigh 8 лет назад

i dont think so...it is not logic in any way in the near future..

@vimukthi. 2 года назад

Wt hk how do you now about this . Best future predictions

@dewzahundred 9 лет назад

No money

@vinllga 8 лет назад

'Ukraine" means "at the edge" "у края" or "near border" That term firstly used for some edge areas of zaporizhsky cossacks, that were military villages, free from Rzeczpospolita and Moscovy tsardom both. But territory of central (malaya) Rus' with Kiev wasnt 'Ukraine". Only at 17 century with the help of Rzeczpospolita the central metropolitan Russia (Malorossija) became to called as 'Ukraine" (non officially). Official, church, literary name of Kiev Rus' was Malorossia that was bring from greek-bysantine geografical norms Micro Russia (metropoly) in opposite the Great Russia (colonial) Analogy as central (small)Greece and colonial (big) Greece. Or like opposition- central (small) Paris and Big Paris. So Russia is the the true name of so called "Ukraine". Ukranians are Russians and Ukraine is Russia more first than Russia itself.

@Infopirates 3 месяца назад

Odessa and Nikolaev were founded by Russian monarchs 😎

@ostapibrahimovicbender1682 5 лет назад

3:47 - самый вероятный вариант танкового наступления и граница по Днепру

@ivangeorgievski854 2 года назад

😭😭😭

@kuzeydemir910 7 лет назад

wouldn't russia start ww3 by doing that im saying wouldn't because of crimea

@rodrigocastillo110 2 года назад

Five years later, hope not bro

@MrMuaythai84 9 лет назад

we started it HOW DARE RUSSIA excerise their military and flex its muscle how DARE RUSSIA

@wexting 2 года назад

Kill people

@myteksp 7 лет назад

Not biased title. At all.

@albertwolanski7688 Год назад

You almost got it right.

@andorka842 3 года назад

Ukrajna! Szekond waar Moldávia!

@klarion 9 лет назад

Talk about being behind the curve....

@davidgalloway45 8 лет назад

I predict a land bridge connecting to Iran ????

@SlidividiCepickit 9 лет назад

Russia has 17 000 tanks 4000 aircrafts 300 ships and millions of soldiers. There is absolutely nothing EU can do against them, yet alone Ukraine. Ukraine committed a very stupid move attacking Russia.

@smc0718 2 года назад

Oh, that didn't age well.

@APMI-OFICIAL Год назад

Russia has lost more than 2000 visually confirmed tanks already

@lukebruce5234 11 месяцев назад

@@smc0718 Still so confident?

@smc0718 11 месяцев назад

@@lukebruce5234 VERY LMAO 😂 The second largest military in the world is Bogged down to sh*t. 😂

@lukebruce5234 11 месяцев назад

@@smc0718 If that is what your dumb brain concluded you're in for a big surprise buddy

@mohsinshaikh3100 2 года назад

Wow they knew about this 7years in edvance still kheson fell like lightning fast and donbas is still holding damm

@WolfyOfHonor 9 лет назад

Loads my G-36 KA4

@iosifstalin6788 9 лет назад

The plan we have in mind you will understand once it is done. Pretty much like with Crimea.

@marshalbali 2 года назад

This...

@vimukthi. 2 года назад

This All plan in past ?

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

Good plan bro.

@DenisTriton 8 лет назад

If Crimea to Ukraine then Texas to Mexico.

@hotrodjones74 5 лет назад

This video is 3 years old and none of that happened... Russia has little interest in incorporating Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation. It provides no benefits excluding Crimea of course.

@syjiang 2 года назад

well now, only if you waited three more years. Putin opted for none of the scenario, instead he ordered to take all of ukraine.

@APMI-OFICIAL Год назад

@@syjiang and fail

@sin3369 2 года назад

Wow alot of there predictions were correct to some fashion.

@wexting 2 года назад

They gave possibilities... There is a limited number of options to invade a country. This is what military strategic analysis is for. What the video doesn't account for was the possibility that Russia was so impulsive and self-harmed in their initial attempt.

@sin3369 2 года назад

@@wexting what this country or any country? How many limited options? Why so limited?

@APMI-OFICIAL Год назад

@@sin3369 do you need more evidence?

@sin3369 Год назад

@APMI-OFICIAL would love an updated verson and yes I would! Always willing to learn!

@APMI-OFICIAL Год назад

@@sin3369 Well, I think that the fact that Russia has been stuck in Ukraine for more than 1 year (we are on our way to the second year and it will probably last 3 at least) is enough to see why in reality the options are very limited, you do it wrong and the wrong thing happens. what is happening

@MrPloopi 9 лет назад

well none of these scenarios happened to become true and probabaly never will, so what is the meaning of these video besides from imagining Russian full scale war options and make fear of Russia rise to legitimate more US involvement in the region?

@1952JBoy 2 года назад

Lol this aged well

@MrPloopi 2 года назад

@@1952JBoy lol, even yesterday I still wasn't believing in a full scale attack. My bad!

@1952JBoy 2 года назад

@@MrPloopi no worries, i think the invasion took all of us by surprise!

@APMI-OFICIAL Год назад

not only did russia invade, but it was a failure

@SupremeCannon1965 8 месяцев назад

Russia could read maps too, as it turned out.

@LanceAlot-ku1sy 7 месяцев назад

Putin read maps but underestimated his enemy

@SupremeCannon1965 7 месяцев назад

Wars start and most plans get changed. It is what it is.

@LanceAlot-ku1sy 7 месяцев назад

@@SupremeCannon1965 Putin should have kept his soldiers home

@SupremeCannon1965 7 месяцев назад

@@LanceAlot-ku1sy Oh well, too late now. Russia will win - whatever that looks like - then his soldiers can go home

@derptrolling4740 4 года назад

They will take all the areas east dnieper river plus Odessa and transnistria. Promise

@RK-cj4oc Год назад

Hahahahahah.

@miguelb.655 3 года назад

The most likely scenario if US/NATO don't take action.

@mikhaiIs 9 лет назад

Выйти дальше Донбасса им будет трудно,потому что их там не ждут.

@ilyaginsburg1888 3 года назад

6 лет назад не ждали. А теперь?

@mikhaiIs 3 года назад

@@ilyaginsburg1888 Вітаємо з мiста Харкова!

@McKeethebest 9 лет назад

FIRST!

@user-bo7ed8lh4t 9 лет назад

всем мира любви и кило пиченек ) расслабьтесь жить в мире интереснее )

@johnnybozic7450 9 лет назад

omg cant hear the message over that intense smacking. but even besides that this is just the obviuous stuff which everyone knows by watching news. just go play outside guys instead of playing military strategy experts.