Watch me build a form based stat model from start to finish

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Опубликовано:

21 ноя 2021

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Комментарии : 20

@mgcovers 2 года назад

Disclosure - this model has not been tested long term for profit. Main purpose of the video was to show how a model is built and how to convert stats into a line. However, this model should produce a better line when compared to the sportsbook line.

@danielschwartz1228 2 года назад

Form is very important in horse racing and I will usually look at a horses last 5 races to see if there are signs of improvement or dropping off.

@mgcovers 2 года назад

Totally agree. I dabbled around in greyhound racing many moons ago and it's a similar concept.

@louismagee9715 5 месяцев назад

Can this form model work for all sports?

@louismagee9715 5 месяцев назад

Sorry you answered my question with multiple sports except basketball is your spread line? Football, hockey, and MLB use ML?

@nathantoth1527 Год назад

Fun video. Belated response to video. For example, Blues are 4-1 in last 5, Kings 4-1 in last 5, St. Louis are +200, Los Angeles-240. If 4-1 gives -135= 57%, does that give Blues a good play?

@mgcovers Год назад

Both teams in good form for sure and that is application of the concept.

@jordanbishop8523 10 месяцев назад

so if you have 3 to bet on that day how do you decide how much to bet on each one?

@beachboy4 10 месяцев назад

1/3 unit each. Example $100 is your unit -wager $33 on each play.

@DustinandJamieH 3 месяца назад

1 unit = 3% of your bankroll max, 1% is ideal

@CSCloud1980 5 месяцев назад

Do you bet on heavy favorites at all? Like if they are playing well and the other team isn't. That can be an extra +100 to your bankroll. Even though you pay out more to make even money. It can help if you have some other losses. Just wondering what your opinion is on it?

@mgcovers 5 месяцев назад

I would say no to this on any level. Playing 2/1 is too difficult to profit long term. And, not much evidence for value. In nhl and mlb, favorites only win roughyly 60% of the time, so in essence, any line over -150 doesn't really have value.

@trivu3825 2 года назад

This model works for MLB too, MG? Also, will we have to update "our line" regularly because the winning percentages for both favors and dogs will change as the season goes on, right? Thanks.

@mgcovers 2 года назад

Not sure but in theory it seems like it would.

@louismagee9715 5 месяцев назад

Keep in mind NBA is 70/30 so the percentages and moneylines would change. Look at the sport trends for each.

@mgcovers 5 месяцев назад

Not following you here. Explain

@louismagee9715 5 месяцев назад

@@mgcovers win percentage for NBA favorites is 70% and dogs 30% according to Covers. So the variables change instead of Hockey 60%/40%.

@mgcovers 5 месяцев назад

@@louismagee9715 Understand! Would probably structure it using spreads if applied to NBA. Team wins 3/5 -4 team lost 2/5 +4 so line is good team -8, for example.

@louismagee9715 5 месяцев назад

@@mgcovers thank you for all of your content!